Whats really moving the market today?

Nice summary on FX street to end the week:


IMF halts Greek inspection Norway freezes payments to Greece Fitch downgrades Greece to B+ from BB+; still on review for further downgrade Lagarde: Greece in danger of default Buba's Weidmann: Lengthening maturities on Greek debt means no longer acceptable as collateral by ECB US yields fall 2.5 bp to 3.15% S&P 500 falls 0.8% Oil rises $1.05 to 99.50, reversing early losses; Gold rises to $1513 on safe-haven flows It was all Greece, all the time as EUR/USD tumbled at the end of range-bound week. From opening levels around 1.4250 (already down from Europe's 1.4345 high) EUR/USD broke support at 1.4195/1.4205, triggering heavy stops. We fell as low as 1.4139 before steadying. Commodities fell initially as the dollar rose but they reversed as the day went on. That reversal set off a squeeze in EUR/USD and sent us as high as 1.4233 in early afternoon. We end at 1.4155 after EUR/USD fell in very thin late afternoon trade, along with equities.1.4120 is key support to be eyed first thing Monday. USD/JPY was weighed down by liquidation of EUR/JPY longs. We end at 81.66, in the middle of a 81.52/81.85 range. USD/CHF and EUR/CHF were hammered this morning on risk aversion along with concerns that a deal struck between the Hungarian government and the bankers in that country to work-out CHF denominated mortgages will prompt franc buying. EUR/GBP sales (can you sense a weak-euro pattern developing) helped support cable as it vastly outperformed the euro. It closes at 1.6240 after peaking bove 1.6300 in thin afternoon trade. AUD rose above 1.0700 intraday on strong gains in industrial metals like copper. It ends at 1.0670

http://www.americablog.com/2011/05/e...-to-burst.html

Is china going to burst? Does anybody know if any of this has any validity?

This is what Roubini has to say:

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth...55105416.html#

Has anyone found it strange that ECB is hiking rates (considering all EZ periphery problems) while the Fed is still doing QE2? Here's comparison statistics for EZ and US.

Country_GDP Growth_ Interest rate_ Inflation rate_ Jobless rate

USA ______ 1.8%________ 0.25%________ 3.2%________ 9.0%
EZ ________0.8%________ 1.25%________ 2.8%________ 9.9%

I promised to only post news, but this is a good question and I cannot let it go unanswered. Since the FOMC and the ECB will inevitably have another meeting in the future, it helps to understand their rationale.

So, here's my reply:
Nothing strange about that. There are two things that you need to know.

First - Mandates
The ECB has a single mandate of keeping inflation stable at around 2% per annum. Employment policy is up to individual member states.

The Fed has a dual mandate of maximum employment and stable inflation. In addition, the Fed has an implicit third mandate of maintaining economic growth. Sometimes when they want to stimulate the economy they cite low inflation and high unemployment, but in reality they want all three. The conflict that arises from having a dual mandate that's fixated on inflation and employment is obvious to anyone who's ever studied economics (hint: Phillips curve), but for those who haven't here's what it's all about: the lower the unemployment rate gets, the higher the pressure for wage price inflation (companies fighting for additional workers bid up prices in effect increasing the inflation rate across the board as those wage increases feed into prices). The Fed has no official inflation target rate.

Second - Tools for Measuring Inflation
The ECB uses the euro area headline inflation (the actual term is harmonised index of consumer prices, HICP for short), which takes into account food and energy (among other things). With prices for food and energy rising fastest it is only natural that the ECB would be hiking rates. Please remember that the ECB is modeled after the Bundesbank, which means they are very hawkish and there's no kidding around when it comes time to hiking or lowering rates.

The Fed has been changing its definition of inflation to the point where the chosen method of calculating inflation is so far away from reality that it no longer gives an accurate measure of what's happening in the real world. First they went from headline CPI to core CPI and then they went still further opting for core PCE. Core inflation rates exclude the 'volatile' food and energy, even though this is what consumers spend their money on. I don't have anything against calculating the core rate because it gives an accurate measure of wage price inflation, but using the core rate to determine policy action is short-sighted. The current PCE uses all kinds of tricks to damped the effect of real inflation and this is exactly what the Fed wanted. If you don't believe me then download the data for CPI, core CPI, PCE and core PCE; you'll see that core PCE is constantly underestimating the inflation rate. This is in part due to the hedonics and substitution behind the calculations.

On Thursday, the Governor of the St. Louis Fed, James Bullard spoke about measuring inflation and suggested a return to the headline rate. Also, Bullard and Bernanke both support having a concrete target rate for inflation.

PS. In reality the inflation calculation methods have more differences when you look at the details, but the above should cover most of it.

---Week 21, May 2011---

EUROPE

 

1. In Europe flash PMI and German Ifo expectations are set to show a moderate decline. German flash HICP inflation will remain high at 2.7%.
2. In Europe focus remains on the debt crisis. The Eurogroup agreed on the EUR78bn rescue package for Portugal, but is still discussing the next round of aid to Greece.

From Danske:
Plenty of interesting data will be released from the euro area next week. Monday will kick off with flash PMI, which has peaked and is expected to show modest declines from elevated levels. On Tuesday German GDP details for the impressive 1.5% q/q growth in Q1 will be released. We expect to see a decent pick-up in both private consumption and investment, which would indicate that the German recovery has matured and is becoming more self-sustained. On Tuesday the German Ifo index is
expected to confirm the strength of the ongoing recovery, but our model signals a decline in Ifo expectations in line with our expectations that growth will slow from the current elevated level to just above trend growth. Euro area industrial new orders in March are projected to show a 0.7% decline based on weak German data and strong Spanish data. On Thursday ECB president Trichet is due speak about European
integration and stability. On Friday German flash HICP inflation for May is due; it is projected to remain unchanged at 2.7% as the contribution from energy is set to decline slightly while food and core inflation remains on an upward trend. We will also get monetary developments from the ECB. It will be interesting to see if monthly loan flows to households remain elevated. M3 growth is projected to remain
unchanged at 2.3% y/y.

S&P Lowers Italy Outlook to Negative
The negative outlook on Italy reflects Standard & Poor's view of the mainly downside risks to the government's debt-reduction plan over the 2011-2014 period, and implies a one-in-three chance that the ratings could be lowered within the next 24 months. In our view, these downside risks will primarily stem from weaker growth than our current assumption of average GDP growth of 1.3% over the 2011-2014 period. In addition, extended political gridlock could contribute to fiscal slippage.

If one or a combination of these risks materializes, Italy's general government debt could stagnate at the current high level. In this case, we may lower the long- and short-term ratings on Italy. On the other hand, if the government manages to gather political support for the implementation of competitiveness-enhancing structural reforms, paving the way for higher economic growth and faster reduction of its debt burden, the ratings could remain at the current level. (LINK)

WSJ - Spain Vote Threatens to Uncover Debt
Weekend elections that threaten to drive Spain's ruling Socialist party from power in several regions and cities also promise a potentially nasty surprise: the revelation of piles of undisclosed debt in local governments that could undercut the country's drive to avoid an international bailout.
Five months ago, a government change in Spain's Catalonia region revealed a budget deficit more than twice as big as previously reported. Now, a growing chorus of economists, local politicians and business leaders say that new governments are likely to discover, as Catalonia did, piles of "hidden debt" owed to health clinics and other suppliers.
/.../
"If [new governments] want to force changes, they are going to have recognize the debt," said Luis Garicano, professor of economics and strategy at the London School of Economics. (LINK)

bug: Don't underestimate this story. Hidden debts discovered by a new government is what pushed Greece over the edge in December 2010. If the Socialists are thrown out and old debts are dug out Spain could be facing higher yields, which could very well end up with Spain having to ask for a bailout. According 2010 figures from Bundesbank, German banks are owed 146.8 billion euros by Spain. The contagion fears are not limited to Germany, though. I've added a chart with BIS data as an attachment that depicts the exposure of European banks to PIGS default.

BBC - Spanish polls open amid mass protests
Spain is voting in regional elections as thousands of young protesters remain camped out in squares across the country. Demonstrators are angry at the government's economic policies and Spain's high youth unemployment rate. Their numbers have swelled despite a ban on political protests ahead of elections. In the capital Madrid, about 30,000 people have occupied the central Puerta del Sol square. Similar protests have sprung up in many other cities including Barcelona, Valencia, Seville and Bilbao. (LINK)

Ifo Revamps Business Climate Index; New Results Next Tuesday
This wasn't on the headlines, but watch out for a much stronger than expected figure due to new weightings. Currently the market seems to be expecting a slightly moderating figure but they are not pricing in the new weightings, which give a different picture. For the whole story, see this link.

S&P Downgrades Credit Agricole To A+ From AA-, Due To "Greek Exposure", Outlook Stable
The downgrades reflect our view that reduced creditworthiness of the Greek sovereign puts pressure on GCA's financial profile, given its exposure to the troubled Greek economy, mostly through its subsidiary Emporiki Bank of Greece (not rated). The downgrade reflects our view that persistent deterioration of the Greek economy induces negative prospects for the local banking sector, which could translate into further material credit losses at Emporiki and/or a sharp decrease in its customer deposits. (LINK)

bug: Credit Agricole, with assets totalling over $1.7 trillion, is the largest bank in France and the second largest in Europe. Considering that German and French banks carry a combined $119 billion in exposure to Greece there are bound to be more downgrades announced next week (possible candidates for future downgrades include Deutsche Bank, Eurohypo and its parent Commerzbank, Hypo Real Estate, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale).

FT Alphaville - Standard & Poor’s speak the truth on Europe’s stress tests
Last year’s stress tests were criticized in some quarters for the absence of an assumed sovereign default or restructuring. Haircuts were applied to sovereign exposures in the trading book, which resulted in €28 billion of the €54 billion aggregate trading losses under the most severe scenario. However, there were no specific haircuts on banking book exposures, which were subject only to the general yield curve assumptions in each stress scenario. This was because a sovereign default or restructuring was deemed unrealistic in view of the support package made available to EU member states. The actual yields on some peripheral eurozone countries’ government bonds have since exceeded the most severe trading book haircuts applied in last year’s stress tests.
/.../
In our view, it would be politically impossible for the EBA to assume a sovereign default or restructuring in the stress tests. (LINK)

Reuters - Greek PM, ECB officials reject debt restructuring
Greece must avoid debt restructuring and push on with budget cuts and privatisations to overcome its debt crisis, the country's Prime Minister George Papandreou and senior ECB officials said on Saturday.Papandreou vowed on Saturday to take any measure necessary to secure more funding for his country. "Greece must convince everyone of its determination," he said. Papandreou pledged to speed up a 50 billion euro privatisation programme, a key part of efforts to shore up finances without a debt restructuring. However, he reiterated that the state would keep stakes in firms managing vital public goods and services, such as water and electricity utilities. (LINK)
bug: So far there's no real progress and only talk. I doubt this is going to change. Greece is acting like it's in a position to make rules but it's not. If potential investors deem the government's involvement in the companies' management a hindrance they simply will not buy those companies or they will put in a very low bid. Either way Greece will face difficulties in trying to sell its assets.

UNITED STATES

 

1. In the US we expect another round of soft housing data. Focus will also be on core capital goods orders and initial claims, which are expected to have improved.

From Danske
There is no tier 1 data due out of the US next week but a range of tier 2 data. New home sales, pending home sales and house prices will give more input to the state of the housing market. We expect a continued picture of weak turnover. House prices have shown signs of falling more strongly recently, which is a concern. High inventory levels and continued foreclosures are expected to continue to weigh on the
housing market for some time. Durable goods orders is a good indicator for equipment investment. The trend has been weakening a bit in early 2011 but overall we expect investment spending to be robust as profit growth is strong and financing conditions favourable. We expect to see a further rise in core orders. Bear in mind, though, that the data is very volatile, so it can deviate quite a bit from consensus. Initial jobless claims continue to be in focus given the weakness recently. If it is true
that it is mainly due to distortions, we should see a further decline in coming weeks. Personal spending data for March is unlikely to show major surprises the Q1 data was released with GDP. In the same report, there may be some focus on core PCE, though, as inflationary pressures have risen recently. Consensus looks for a rise of 0.2% m/m. If anything, we think it may surprise to the downside by printing 0.1% m/m.

From Econoday:
The minutes of the FOMC's April 26th and 27th meeting revealed that it discussed how it might exit its easy monetary policy. Discussion of exit strategy shows how debate on the Federal Open Market Committee has turned towards tightening of monetary policy rather than further easing. But the FOMC noted the discussion did not mean that the move toward such normalization was imminent. In the discussion, nearly all FOMC members said that the first step towards exit would be stopping the reinvestment of early repayments from the Fed's portfolio of mortgage backed securities. A majority of FOMC participants said they would prefer to start sales of mortgage-backed securities after increasing the Fed's target for short-term interest rates. They argued that if the Fed raises interest rates first, it would have the power to cut them again if the economy weakened, rather than being trapped by the lower limit of zero.
(LINK)
For more Fed policy see my notes and commentary of the FOMC minutes.

JAPAN

From Danske:
In Japan we do not expect any major news in connection with Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary meeting this Friday. BoJ is currently in wait-and-see mode, whereby it wants a clearer view of the impact on the economy from the earthquake before it decides on any additional easing measures. The foreign trade data for April on
Wednesday should give us some additional information on the severity of the contraction of the Japanese economy in the wake of the earthquake. We expect exports to drop sharply by 9% y/y on the one hand, while imports on the other hand have remained strong, increasing 10% y/y. For that reason, the seasonally adjusted
trade balance should shift into a substantial JPY220bn deficit in April. The continued decline in auto sales in April suggests that the retail sales data for April to be released on Friday is also poised to show another drop. Finally, consumer prices for April should jump markedly higher because the base impact from the introduction of subsidies for some consumer purchases in April 2010 disappears.

TOKYO (MarketWatch) — The Bank of Japan kept its policy interest-rate target steady at its meeting Friday, held off on announcing any new easing steps, and stuck to its view that the economy will pick up speed later this year as the nation recovers from the March disaster. As had been widely expected, the central bank decided to keep its overnight call-rate target in a range of zero to 0.1% and maintained its basic outlook that Japan will pick up speed later this year as the nation recovers from March’s disastrous earthquake and tsunami. (LINK)

bug: It seems to me that Japanese policymakers and analysts are underestimating the severity of the crisis. Japan's economy contracted 0.9% in the first quarter (-3.7% annualized), this comes after a 0.8% decline in Q4 2010 (Q4 GDP was revised from -1.3% qoq annualized to -3.0% qoq annualized). Keep in mind that the first quarter ends with March 31st and the tsunami hit Japan only two weeks before the end of the quarter. This means the Japanese economy was already weakening well before the tsunami. Although the region hit hardest only produces around 4% of GDP, supply disruptions, problems with electricity supply and depressed consumer confidence will be weighing on the Japanese economy for some time to come. Also, lets not forget that tens of thousands of people have been relocated due to the tsunami and the nuclear disaster rendering them useless in terms of lost economic output. As if this wasn't enough, the government is on the hook for billions of dollars in rebuilding and compensation costs (the latter largely due to Tepco). Moody's has already warned Japan of a downgrade in case they decide to bail out Tepco.
I've read some reports that the nuclear plant started leaking radiation four hours prior to the tsunami. If this is confirmed, the nuclear disaster could be much more serious as this suggest the containment building were crumbling even before the devastating combination of an earthquake and tsunami. It also casts a dark shadow on the Japanese nuclear industry as a whole as it calls into question the safety of their nuclear facilities.

COMMODITIES & GLOBAL EVENTS

 

1. The flash PMI for China is expected to indicate more slowdown, as tightening measures feed through.
2. G8 meeting in France on May 26th and 27th.

BBC - Economic recovery at risk over oil supply says IEA
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has urged oil producing countries to increase supply to avoid "derailing the economic recovery". The organisation says high oil prices are threatening the global recovery by reducing spending power and driving up inflation, placing upward pressure on interest rates. The IEA statement suggests it could release emergency stockpiles if action is not taken. US light crude fell $1.66 to settle at $98.44 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. While Brent crude slipped 88 cents to $111.42 a barrel on the London based ICE futures. (LINK)

BBC - Gold demand strong in 2011, says World Gold Council
Demand for gold as an investment was strong at the start of 2011, although it was off the peaks of 2010, the World Gold Council has said. Investment demand was 310.5 tonnes, up 26% from the first quarter of 2010 but down 5% from the fourth quarter. "Although demand is still down from the second quarter, it is still at historically high levels," said Philip Newman, research director at the precious metals consultancy GFMS.Investment demand of about 300 tonnes a quarter is considered to be a relatively high figure. Demand for gold for other uses such as jewellery and technology has been relatively flat, except for dental demand, which has fallen as a result of higher prices. (LINK)

WSJ - Flooding To Delay U.S. Grain Harvests
Widespread flooding along the Mississippi River will delay early grain harvests in the U.S., further stoking supply fears amid dwindling stockpiles of corn and soybeans. Many farmers in states such as Missouri and Mississippi will have to replant crops after the floods washed away seeds and sprouting plants, as well as nutrients in the soil. Farms in the southern Midwest and Mississippi Delta are typically the first in the U.S. to harvest corn and soybeans, making fresh supplies available to ethanol producers, animal-feed processors and exporters.
The timing of the fall harvest is particularly critical this year as corn inventories are forecast to slip to a 15-year low by the end of August. The U.S. is the world's largest grower and exporter of corn.As the damage wreaked by the flooding has become apparent, grain prices have surged. Corn futures are up 12% over the past week and ended Friday near one-month highs, up 1.5% on the day at $7.595 a bushel. Wheat and soybean prices have also posted big gains this week on the Chicago Board of Trade. On top of the impact to the local economies, the flooding is likely to pressure food costs higher both at home and abroad.Farmers also may not plant at all. Many will weigh the option of taking payments from their crop insurance and leaving the acreage idle. The insurance payment may be a profitable alternative to planting since the shorter development period for the crop will curb yields, Mr. Basse said. (LINK)

DANSKE weekly focus is available here.

Bug, thank you for such comprehensive answer, to be honest I wasn't expecting anything like that. From technical perspective it all makes sense now but I'm still surprised that Fed and ECB have such a strong divergence in their approach to monetary policy.

It's the history and the people behind the organization that shape the way it works and makes decisions. Central banks around the world have differences in the way they work. For example, New Zealand's central bank does not take kindly to central bankers who consistently miss their inflation targets and will reduce the wages of bankers who can't do their job properly (they even reserve the right to fire bankers who can't do their job). This no doubt influences RBNZ's monetary policy.

If this is all new to you then you needn't worry too much, you'll pick up this information along the way if you are truly interested and motivated. Questions like the one you posted above are a sign that you are on the right path.

Due to my lack of knowledge of the subject I have no choice but to accept what you're saying, bug. Before you replied I had an idea of my own but I won't say it here, at least for now. Let's see how the things turn out in the following months. If my idea is valid then ECB will hold rates for some time now (to the surprise of many).

Hi there, bug,

I just wanted to thank you for your succint and salient summaries of events in the EUR, USD, JPY and commodities, as it goes a long way in shortening the amount of time I need to prepare my tactical map for the week ahead - especially useful when you have exams!

@seagreen,

Regarding potential decisions about the ECB regarding rates, this is indeed a sticky situation. There appears to be a subtle conflict of interest here, because holding such a large exposure to the toxic Greek Paper, and given its no-nonsense stance to debt restructuring, it is evident that the ECB is concerned about Greece from the point of view of its exposure. Although the ECB has a mandate to maintain inflation near its target rate, by further tightening interest rates, the ECB will in effect be sealing the fates for Greece's sovereign debt plights, by making repayment terms even more unfavourable.

Coupled with the fact that investor sentiment toward Greece is declining, making the privatisations programe even more tedious, raising rates at this juncture could prove to be a recipe for disaster. The recent rhetoric from the last meeting suggested a move to inflation expectations in the medium-term as opposed to the short-term, and I believe this was done as a contingency in light of the potential issues which could pop up in Greece. From these perspectives, there is a good chance that the ECB's next press conference may merely be a reiteration of its previous stance. Additionally, as you mentioned, with headline and core inflation where they are at now, it's very plausible for participants to harbour expectations of an interest rise.

The latest fixation on my mind, is whether the ECB act in it's interest, or in the interest of the broader EuroZone in this meeting in light of current circumstances? I'm leaning towards the former, but will continute analysing this throughout the week.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx

I'm glad to help. It's helpful for me too as this thread has forced me to have a real good look at what's ahead every weekend, whereas in the past I used to skip some weekends.

Some notes on the ECB
The ECB and Trichet in particular have emphasized that ECB's monetary policy is aimed at the euro area as a whole and no exceptions will be made to accommodate individual nations (you haven't seen the Fed lowering rates to accommodate just one state, have you? It's about the whole, not the parts). This is something that's been mentioned in quite a few ECB press conferences and quite frankly I don't understand why are people still asking the same question (I don't mean you lot at FF, but the journalists who are supposed to be covering financial markets). Don't they pay any attention?

I can't agree with you in terms of the ECB making a mistake here - their mandate is to keep inflation in check and that's exactly what they are doing. If the inflation rate or expectations of future inflation dampen then I can see the ECB holding off raising rates. If the trend of higher inflation continues, I can't see any other way out but to raise rates. The ECB isn't playing a game with people like the Fed is (a game as in game theory where participants try to outsmart each other). It has an inflation mandate with a set target and it has shown an ability and willingness to stick to it. In terms of financing costs I can't imagine a 25 or even a 100 basis point hike being a game changer for Greek banks or the sovereign. Their financing costs are way up in the stratosphere anyway and 100 basis points here or there is more of a rounding error.

With all the above said, you cannot for a single minute forget that this has been turned into political problem that requires a political solution. The markets would've forced Greece to default a long time ago, but the politicians decided to 'rescue' it. Whether Greece falls or not is up to politicians not the short term refinancing rate of the ECB.

Its about what there policies focus on.

Trichet has said his priority is maintaining inflation at I think 2%.
The tool of choice is interest rates .
Recently officials have said They got to look at the whole eurozone ,so rates will rise regardless of the struggling small economies .

So based on this ,if you see an increase in eur cpi or inflation figures Know that a lot of traders will start to expect there to be further rate rises,and traders trade what is likely to happen and not what has happened.
Rising inflation ,rising rates ,upward pressure from euro side.

The USA is the opposite despite the rising prices of everything ,the fed tells the public there is no inflation ,and therefore no rate hikes likely in the near term.
Poland asking for rate rises at moment.

I will not be posting links to forexlive until fix their website. Their FXDD ad is infected (probably someone hacked the ad's server and added a little 'treat' onto the ad). Since I haven't changed my browsing behaviour over the last few days I can only conclude that I got the Zeus/Zbot virus from the FXDD ad. Bummer. I hope they get their site cleaned up soon. For now I can only provide you with the headlines I receive via their RSS feed.

Headlines forexlive

 

1. Italy’s govt says deficit-cutting measures being brought forward to give “signal to the markets” after S&P outlook cut to negative – Govt source
2. Fitch analyst: No change seen at moment for outlook or rating on Italy
3. Moody’s analyst: Rating outlook on Italy is stable.
4. ECB’s Nowotny: Expect relatively high inflation in next few months

FT : Greece fails to pay medical bills
The Greek government has fallen sharply behind on payments to healthcare companies only months after restructuring its €5.4bn ($7.6bn) debt to suppliers, raising doubts about patient safety while revealing the looming cash-flow crisis faced by the state. The pharmaceutical industry says only 30 per cent of €1.2bn in payments owed by public hospitals since the start of last year have been made. Of debt due from the start of 2011, just 1 per cent has so far been paid. /.../ Many companies that received zero-coupon government bonds last December in lieu of past debts have sold them off at substantial discounts. The bonds, issued to cover unpaid debt for 2007-09, are trading informally at a 35-40 per cent discount, reflecting increasing concern that Greece may have to restructure its sovereign debt. (LINK)

Zero Hedge reports Greece has only two months of cash left
Today's EUR trading session which begins in about 4 hours, may be rather violent. While on one hand we have bond-negative news out of Spain, the biggest news once again comes out of the Swiss journal NZZ, which citing greek newspaper Kahtimerini, discloses that insolvent Greece has less than two months of cash left, or enough to last it until July 18, unless a new installment in the bailout tranche is approved for the country by the now headless IMF, and the suddenly insolvent ECB. (LINK)

Lots of stuff happening today, 99% of which is euro negative. There were some downgrades, outlook changes etc. and a whole bunch of recycled lies from the Kingdom of Lazy Socialists. I'm not going to be putting up links or headlines as I've been preoccupied with getting a zbot out of my computer.

Sorry to hear about that Bug, what a bunch of low lives that create these things. Luckily I don't think I'm infected although have used FXL quite a bit in the past week

I haven't been posting lately as I'm pretty busy studying for exams and only have a couple of hours a night to devote to trading.

Been following the thread though. Will be back in swing next week,

Keep up the good work

AUD/USD In bullets!

 

1. Chinese manufacturing came out @ 10month low
2. Key support @ 1.0500 taken out paving the way for lower prices
3. Stops reported below 1.0460
4. Real money buying slowing descent
5. Exporters on the bid @ 1.0480
6. Sellers expected 1.0530-75
7. Bad Euro news fueling risk off environment
8. Lower Asian indices and stagnant commodities applying additional downward pressure

AUD/USD IFR market talk!

IFR: AUD/USD back above key 1.0500 handle, eye 5-week lows of 1.0478. Eye Parity soon - as investors and funds who are still long, could, though still likely to see Asian, South E Asian, North Asian, Russian, M.E., East Europeans sovereign bids. Huge stops below key 1.0350-60.WL

IFR: If the Asian equity markets follow the lead from the Kospi- the AUD/USD might see a decent recovery after talking two stabs at the 1.0480 level with little or no follow-through. The key will be the performance of the Shanghai Composite when it opens in a few minutes (01:30 GMT) after it fell nearly 3.0% fell close to 3% yesterday.

Look out for SNB intervention, definitely going to move Eur in some way.

I've been following all the Microsoft official guidelines and it looks like I got the little bugger out. Knowing Murphy's laws one can never be too sure though.

Murphy's law is bullshit.

Everyone treats it as though it's fact. It's not.

Vielleicht möchten Sie zu einem Thread auf Murphys Gesetz machen