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Scalper challenge

  • #861
  • Edited 3:56am May 19, 2011 2:56am | Edited 3:56am
Quoting Forexcube
I like this at the moment.

Task: Unwind
So you think: Long term E/U drop, short term up for a bit.

Silver drop in mid term.

I see the divergence E/U you where thinking on H1, and H4.


Will be interesting to see how that pans out.

You might appreciate any of these S/R for consideration, though Keltner channel is tuned to H4 i zoomed in to H1 to give better view:
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  • #862
  • May 19, 2011 3:10am May 19, 2011 3:10am
thx
  • #863
  • May 19, 2011 3:53am May 19, 2011 3:53am
Quoting fxaus
thx
You are welcome friend!
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  • #864
  • Edited 9:24am May 19, 2011 6:24am | Edited 9:24am
Part 2 for afternoon probably coming up

All day today i was pretty much switched on like i was in the afternoon yesterday. For consideration is countertrend envelope situations, they are far more reliable to end and give a nice retrace as they touch envelopes as opposed to situations where Mas is pretty much flat and then MA 21 leads the way into the envelopes.

I need to be calm, yet fast on the trigger finger. I need to be critical yet open to totally new situations. I need to be well rested and well rested enough to noticed when im not. I need to read the situation yet not care much about the particular situation but regard the general features of what usually follows from the current events of price. I need to drink plenty of water and keep my blod sugar OK.

Only one STOPID bummer and six times going with the flow like the flea on the back of elephants like Fxhermit says.

A problem being that when im tired im often to tired to know im tired so i think i see a good place to enter, only its not my judgement is just off since im so tired.
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  • #865
  • Edited 9:43am May 19, 2011 9:32am | Edited 9:43am
When boxed in, gotta go somewhere
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  • #866
  • May 19, 2011 10:03am May 19, 2011 10:03am
Right after touch of the daily pivot, price is VOLITILE, a bunch of people is watching like hawks chucking their orders at price.
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  • #867
  • Edited 4:01pm May 19, 2011 3:25pm | Edited 4:01pm
If i could get something like this to work that would be really cool. Very easy on the brain.

Here is what im thinking:

Place S/R at which point beyond it i would have wanted to enter. Its very easy to spot such places in the chart with a little bit of thought. SL would be tight, maybe 8 pips or so, though if no clear direction comes to the trade after a breach of S/R a very smal profit of 1+ pip must be taken. Entry would probably be best to keep only to AFTER a candle closed beyond the S/R. Meaning rejections is NOT to be taken, only BREAKS. It is possible a double position MM should be used, but some heavy duty number crunching is needed to balance the result of such an affair cost/benefit wise with only a single position MM. Maximum TP would of course be outer limits of current S/R boundary. After some consideration first position should be SL say for instance 12 + spread, second should be placed at 5 pips loss and have SL of about 7. I have no idea if it would be profitable long term, the total SL is 19 + (spread x2) = 22.2. Considering some profits must be taken at around 2 pip, while median TP is closer to say 6, an accuracy of say 80% must be achieved for profit long term.
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  • #868
  • May 19, 2011 6:34pm May 19, 2011 6:34pm
Quoting yaed
If i could get something like this to work that would be really cool. Very easy on the brain.
I think this idea is moving in a better direction than envelopes and MA's.

Here is my take on one of your charts to add to your melting pot. Take scalps in direction of arrows and at levels I added (depending how price behaves through the levels).

It is difficult to say if I would have taken these trades live because of the reasons below, but this is roughly where I would have scalped:

 

  1. 1 minute charts is not complete enough for me.
  2. Price action is incomplete. My definition of price action from a scalping perspective is not only the lie of the candles and patterns etc, its actually about price action at that point. How is it moving, how violant are the ticks. How is it behaving. Price has a motion due to the presence of or lack of orders. Understanding order flow is one of the keys to scalping. Seeing price at a lower TF gives you a better picture of order flow. Price is directly and soley dependant on order flow. Understanding order flow also helps in understanding how algorithms will most likely behave. This is a great benefit as algorithms, by far, provide the most activity in the market and in turn determine, at least, the very short term direction of the market.
  3. I find it very difficult to determine where price is stalling with 1m charts, therefore TP and SL is difficult to determine here. Again the price motion is important here for me. Trade 1 - 4 & 6, I recon I would have closed fairly safely at first sign of stalling, trade 5 I would have most likely closed for a loss of my spread.

With a 10 second chart there would have probably been more trades and a few more BE's and spread losses. On a bad day I would have let number 5 retrace against me dependig how I felt about the resistance at your entry #1 text. I say bad day, because I consider a lingering loss position a high potential for chasing a loss. And chasing a loss by adding positions to better my break even, is in my books one of the worse of scalping bad habits.

This can be done with 1.6 pip spread.

Regards,

JC

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1305847791

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  • #869
  • Edited 3:13am May 20, 2011 2:03am | Edited 3:13am
Quoting Waka
I think this idea is moving in a better direction than envelopes and MA's.

Here is my take on one of your charts to add to your melting pot. Take scalps in direction of arrows and at levels I added (depending how price behaves through the levels).

It is difficult to say if I would have taken these trades live because of the reasons below, but this is roughly where I would have scalped:
[list][*]1 minute charts is not complete enough for me.[*]Price action is incomplete. My definition of price action from a scalping perspective is not...
Your input is highly valued. I can see why in hindsight you would enter at those locations, but i am far from certain i would spot it live. I am working on that, i am fairly certain it is the way to go.

About candles: Sometimes it seems price is acting and putting faith in the minute divisions of price, and sometimes it dont. Probably that means there are some systems using minutes as division of price, and some systems that dont. For in essence, and this is probably things you already know:

The minute division is arbitrary, just becuase certain events took place within a period of 60 seconds does not mean anything if its not the case that someone thinks that way. The unit of tick is closer to the unit of price, but thats also only something the broker calculates, different brokers have different tick data. Also Alparis demo accounts differ from the regular accounts, i often see 5-30 places that is different between my demos and my regular account, and that is still not ticks but M1 candles. Anyway the fact that some events takes place within a 60 second period and the beginning is a certain distance in pips from the end, with a certain range in that period is arbitrary, the fact that price ended at a certain level and closed on a certain other level doesnt really mean much. The same could be said for S30, S10, or why not S1 or S 0.1 or S 0.001 charts and so on. However, when it comes to S/R, in other words waiting limit orders, in theory what goes on at a certain level can be spotted, but that doesnt the information is divided into minute units.

I tried try to surpass this, i looked at ticks for a while, but i couldnt see what i was looking for so i stopped. Do you use any automatic S/R indie such as PivotsD, fibonacci pivots or anything like that?
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  • #870
  • Edited 7:48am May 20, 2011 5:40am | Edited 7:48am
Id make more money searching for coins in the street, at least that why i couldnt actually loose money. If i didnt have a hole in my pocket that is.

Ive been requoted at least 7 times so far, every time it happens its like a chainsaw in my brain.
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  • #871
  • May 21, 2011 2:15am May 21, 2011 2:15am
Quoting Waka
I think this idea is moving in a better direction than envelopes and MA's.

Here is my take on one of your charts to add to your melting pot. Take scalps in direction of arrows and at levels I added (depending how price behaves through the levels).

It is difficult to say if I would have taken these trades live because of the reasons below, but this is roughly where I would have scalped:
[list][*]1 minute charts is not complete enough for me.[*]Price action is incomplete. My definition of price action from a scalping perspective is not...
But i can see the methodolgy of how you think:

When price has been rejected at a certain level, which we can be seen by looking at wicks, in other words places where price got to but was bought/sold repeatedly to get it out of that level, we know there probably are a bunch of orders being placed their either beforehand or as we get there. When ever such a level is exhausted, in other words when people stop placing orders at that place, by experience there is a good chance that the release of pressure of orders will make the people with the opposite positions win at least 5+ pips or so in their own direction, making for an excellent entry.
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  • #872
  • May 21, 2011 10:42am May 21, 2011 10:42am
Quoting yaed
But i can see the methodolgy of how you think:

[i]When price has been rejected at a certain level, which we can be seen by looking at wicks, in other words places where price got to but was bought/sold repeatedly to get it out of that level, we know there probably are a bunch of orders being placed their either beforehand or as we get there. When ever such a level is exhausted, in other words when people stop placing orders at that place, by experience there is a good chance that the release of pressure of orders will make the people with the opposite...
Yes, for those entries I showed, this is more or less the idea. Additionally, often on the other side of that resistance is a bunch of SL's which when triggered add to the price move, but this depends on the market activity leading up to this area.

Depending on the size of the resistance, the nature and presence of SL's and the aggressiveness of price through this level, for a short period there is a vacuum of orders left behind the price move. The market needs time to backfill orders (I'm talking seconds, if that). During this time there is often a quick retrace of the randy move because of this vacuum, but the market/algorithms are quick to climb on board of the continuation move from the broken S/R. But then again, often price will simply push through like a hot knife through butter.

Never be naive enough to think that a broken S/R level, as I showed it, will continue. You must monitor price action immediately after the entry. Price movement will tell you if it is a continuation or a slightly LL or HH.

Try not to set an arbitrary SL, it has no logic and does not take the current market/movement into consideration. Set a logical SL based on price action. As I'v already said, I almost always close at the first sign of the price stalling. This is more easily seen with bars < 1m. I use 10 sec.

Please note that this is not a finite view of how I trade these scenarios as no point in time can be defined by any one scenario.

I know this next bit will seem wishy washy to most, but most seasoned naked traders will relate to it. You need to learn to feel the market. A small % of people who have enough screen time, will go on to develop an unexplainable mix of intuition/market understanding or feel of how the market moves. Always trade what the market is telling you (price action etc.) and never predict. Most people naturally mistrust the market. It is important to train yourself to trust what the market is telling you (trading psychology).

A practical tip and one I still use now and then, is to begin your trading day with a few demo trades, depending on frequency of trades. I find it focuses my thoughts, re-aligns my psychology (especially if I have not traded for a few days) and brings my intuition/feel in line with the market.

Regards,

JC
  • #873
  • May 21, 2011 4:13pm May 21, 2011 4:13pm
Quoting Waka
...It is important to train yourself to trust what the market is telling you (trading psychology). .. .JC
  • #874
  • May 21, 2011 4:25pm May 21, 2011 4:25pm
Quoting Forexcube



That's the real old question: How I could learn to trust my own market decisions?
I would have to say experience. Eventually, most of us get sick of making crapy trades. Human nature either gives up or changes the decision making process. I've done both many times.

JC
  • #875
  • May 22, 2011 4:54am May 22, 2011 4:54am
Quoting Waka
Yes, for those entries I showed, this is more or less the idea. Additionally, often on the other side of that resistance is a bunch of SL's which when triggered add to the price move, but this depends on the market activity leading up to this area.

Depending on the size of the resistance, the nature and presence of SL's and the aggressiveness of price through this level, for a short period there is a vacuum of orders left behind the price move. The market needs time to backfill orders (I'm talking seconds, if that). During this time there is...
A note on the penetration of S/R: I often see a really big candle going through a place of a lot of orders, and extends and extends with pauses of only 1 second or so until it pauses for about 3 seconds. And then it almost ALWAYS retracts for 2-4 pip. A while ago when i was countertrading i tried to get in at those times and close at the profit, right when it stalls for those 3 seconds. If it can be done its the most sure trades i can think of. However Alpari isnt always so keen on letting me do that. After that happens it often continues dropping/climbing in a more normal matter.

About intuition/understanding, i agree. A lot of the floor traders in Chicago mercantile exchange and such places probably live off that. Though these days i understand there arent nearly as much action going on on the floors as it used to before the 90s, because of electronic trading and such. I think all good traders utilize that regardless of if they trade electronically like us, or in any other fashion. So in essence its something based on experience, that is hard if not impossible to quantify.

I use an arbitrary SL mostly because my execution speed is utter crap, if i would close manually i would loose extra pips due to those 3+ seconds Alpari wants before they close anything i told them to close.
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  • #876
  • May 23, 2011 5:22am May 23, 2011 5:22am
Think i figured out i might not even need the pivot and fibo indies. Oh i know what i need them for: If i have an open position running in profit i can use them to close at since its probably gonna give some S/R there. Well on the other hand i need to see it happen anyway...

So screw em
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  • #877
  • Edited 12:24pm May 23, 2011 9:07am | Edited 12:24pm
Looks like this
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  • #878
  • Edited 1:26pm May 23, 2011 12:58pm | Edited 1:26pm
Hindsight is always 20/20
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  • #879
  • May 23, 2011 1:29pm May 23, 2011 1:29pm
Need to understand 1hr, 4hr, daily, weekly S&R levels. 10min chart shows both 4hr and daily levels while the 1min chart shows 1 hour and daily levels and zones.
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  • #880
  • May 23, 2011 1:33pm May 23, 2011 1:33pm
Quoting traden4x
Need to understand 1hr, 4hr, daily, weekly S&R levels. 10min chart shows both 4hr and daily levels while the 1min chart shows 1 hour and daily levels and zones.
Ok i whanna try, but thats not MT4 right? Where do i get that stuff?
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