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Whats really moving the market today?

  • #141
  • May 19, 2011 2:50pm May 19, 2011 2:50pm
Quoting paul1
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...74H58420110518

I found the article i was refering to earlier lumesh.

Would you post what fundamentals you feel are priority .

If you feel there are ones more important than the ones i use please share .
about Yuan and Dollar is clear, it's about 'price' for their good and services to be competitive in the market..

the problem of both of you is starting from 'IF' word..,

china seems not (high possibility Will not) do what US want, even US say china is chicken, playing dirty, unfair, or others act to provoke china floating their currency..
this is business not sport where sportive be a slogan.., in business the most important thing is Profit..


btw i like your words using road and boat..but it have some problem,

the time..

with QE it's not suddenly move dollar to what they want, it's need months (or could be years to proof it),,
just like now (in April if i'm not mistake), when they say "strong dollar being in U.S. interests"...when i could use that words to trade? is it now? or next few months, or next years when recovery finish??

so it's a questionable, when your analysis or other member who post here is including in "what really moving the market TODAY"

is that news really moving the market today???



ps: anyway i really enjoy your post and others member here. cheers.
I will be the number one Manager.
  • #142
  • May 19, 2011 2:52pm May 19, 2011 2:52pm
Quoting Tact1cal
Good idea, I'll shoot them an email. I never thought to do that. They are a really great team.
I found this post bookmarked with the correct e-mail. If the question is worth answering they will publish the question along with the reply on the blog. Don't expect to get a private reply to you only.

You’ve got questions, we (most of the time) have answers

Have a general question on how markets work or the intricacies of the interbank market? send it to jamie (at forexlive.com. The best questions will be answer on our pages. Take a look at previously asked questions so we can cover new ground please.(LINK)

If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #143
  • May 19, 2011 5:08pm May 19, 2011 5:08pm
Useful information to note:

EUR/USD likely to head towards 1.4360: Dealers

May 19th, 2011

The story according to Reuters sources is that there is a sizeable digital option at 1.4360, due to expire early next week, and prices should gravitate towards there in the next day or so. LINK

Talk of…

 May 19th, 2011

Demand today for 1 month USD calls with 85.00 strike in USD/JPY. We’re at 81.90 presently. Only another three and a bit big figures to go. LINK

Cheers,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #144
  • May 19, 2011 5:14pm May 19, 2011 5:14pm
Thanks for that Trizz

What does it mean when there is demand for an option? I guess there a demand to hedge the underlying asset but what are the implications for the spot market?

Anyone?
Time hides Nothing
  • #145
  • May 19, 2011 6:25pm May 19, 2011 6:25pm
Sure it can be used to hedge uncertain cash flows by utilitarian traders, but in such an event, it would seem to me that one would want to hedge as near to the prevailing spot rate as possible, taking into account premium costs and what not. Additionally, with the liquidity of the futures market, it is easy to hedge there instead, avoiding premiums altogether - only the spread would have to be paid.

The fact that there was healthy demand for calls so far from the market, indicates that:

1) Participants, who are most likely not hedgers, have an inkling that the spot price may reach 85.00 in the next month. As a premium would have had to be paid (admittedly it's lower as you go further from spot), it's likely to rationalise that these guys may have done their homework.
2) The underwriters of the option have a liability if price reaches 85.00, and it increases as price exceeds that level.

Could it be linked to:
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Landis+Gyr Said to Receive Takeover Bids From Toshiba, TPG

May 12 (Bloomberg) -- Landis+Gyr AG, a Swiss electronic metering company, received bids from Japan’s Toshiba Corp. and two private equity firms in a sale that may fetch about $2 billion, according to two people with knowledge of the matter. LINK
or
Quoting xXTrizzleXx

UPDATE 2-Takeda to reveal $12 bln purchase of Nycomed Wednesday

TOKYO May 18 (Reuters) - Takeda Pharmaceutical Co , Japan's largest drugmaker, will announce the 1 trillion yen ($12 billion) purchase of closely held Swiss rival Nycomed on Wednesday as it seeks to expand in Europe and emerging markets, Japanese business daily Nikkei reported. LINK
or
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
The semi-annual revision of MSCI indices that will take effect at the close on Tuesday 31 will force some portfolio chances and consequentially provoke FX flows.

The UBS said in its report that the CHF would be the main beneficiary, at the expense of the GBP and the JPY. Why? A more favorable environment for equities in Switzerland.
Only time will tell.

Cheers,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #146
  • May 19, 2011 6:37pm May 19, 2011 6:37pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
Thanks for that Trizz

What does it mean when there is demand for an option? I guess there a demand to hedge the underlying asset but what are the implications for the spot market?

Anyone?
Cindy,

These terms, "supply" and "demand", are heavily applied to stocks/futures trading, notably towards call options and puts; supply really means stocks supplied into the system/market because of big selling, and demand really means stocks bought out of the system/market because of big buying. There is that term "shorting" which is heavily used which is defined as selling off shares that does not even exist, which disrupts the "supply and demand" balance. I can go on and on about that! Which then I will make a long stretch towards corruption of the FED/SEC.

The term supply and demand forgoes the simplicity when used in the forex market/trading. Why? Well, because there is no defined amount of "shares" or "puts/calls" being traded. "Supply" is understood as "averaged selling" and "Demand" as "averaged buying". And at any given S/R level, these terms apply to be more appropriate towards whether sellers or buyers are the majority.

PipPipPip
  • #147
  • May 19, 2011 6:54pm May 19, 2011 6:54pm
Thanks ppp I'm aware of what supply and demand is what I was asking was about the demand for a derivative and it's effect on the underlying asset

What I now realize us that trizzle was talking about barrier options. I thought he just meant normal options I should have noticed the key words like strike price . duh

Thanks for the explanation XT
Time hides Nothing
  • #148
  • May 19, 2011 7:00pm May 19, 2011 7:00pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
Thanks ppp I'm aware of what supply and demand is what I was asking was about the demand for a derivative and it's effect on the underlying asset

What I now realize us that trizzle was talking about barrier options. I thought he just meant normal options I should have noticed the key words like strike price . duh

Thanks for the explanation XT
Heya CindyXXXX,

These are more along the lines of Vanilla Options, the fact that they have a strike price is only a reference level to how the payout will be determined should the strike price be exceeded. The fact that it's a call option means the holders' payout increases the further price moves above the strike, before the option is exercised. Barrier options don't have this put/call nature, since as soon as the strike price is hit, the option is voided.

Hope this helps,
xXTrizzleXx

PS. Most of the options you see on the options calendars are vanillas by the way - hope you didn't interpret them as barriers.
  • #149
  • May 19, 2011 8:56pm May 19, 2011 8:56pm
Oh man this option stuff is crazy one touch no touch double no touch in and out up and in up and out down and in vanilla manilla sapodilla Godzilla barrier swaption option concoction what the foksion

Never mind.... And no I never mistook the expirey calendar for barriers but the barriers I've seen have been either call or put barriers

It's no wonder the financial world is such a mess who the Fk could possibly keep track of all this shit. Options are barely scratching the surface. I guess all the better for us

Uncle!
Time hides Nothing
  • #150
  • May 19, 2011 9:05pm May 19, 2011 9:05pm
WSJ(5/20) ECB Threatens Greek Funding


20/05/2011 00:35
(From THE WALL STREET JOURNAL)
By Brian Blackstone FRANKFURT -- The European Central Bank warned it may pull the plug on funding for Greek banks in the event of any restructuring of Greece's government debt, escalating what until now had been a behind-the-scenes dispute with euro-zone governments over the best way to handle Athens' fiscal crisis.

<snip>
"This is the last card in the hands of the ECB in warning about the implications of a restructuring," Mr. Cailloux said. If the ECB rejects Greek collateral, "the Greek banking system would fail," he said.
<snip

LINK

Looks like the party's got drastic!

Quoting CindyXXXX
Oh man this option stuff is crazy one touch no touch double no touch in and out up and in up and out down and in vanilla manilla sapodilla Godzilla barrier swaption option concoction what the foksion

Never mind.... And no I never mistook the expirey calendar for barriers but the barriers I've seen have been either call or put barriers

It's no wonder the financial world is such a mess who the Fk could possibly keep track of all this shit. Options are barely scratching the surface. I guess all the better for us

Uncle!
Indeed! It can actually get kinda messy..well I guess they would look at it from the point of view that a call barrier is one which price must be kept above the strike and a put barrier is one which price must be ket below the strike. Calling it a barrier is just so much easier to get across but I guess that's not the intention of financial jargon!
  • #151
  • Edited 9:43am May 20, 2011 2:03am | Edited 9:43am
[quote=xXTrizzleXx;4631294]Useful information to note:

EUR/USD likely to head towards 1.4360: Dealers

May 19th, 2011

The story according to Reuters sources is that there is a sizeable digital option at 1.4360, due to expire early next week, and prices should gravitate towards there in the next day or so. LINK


1.4360 option Monday 15 mil payout Toyko cut.
  • #152
  • May 20, 2011 2:09am May 20, 2011 2:09am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Oh man this option stuff is crazy one touch no touch double no touch in and out up and in up and out down and in vanilla manilla sapodilla Godzilla barrier swaption option concoction what the foksion

Never mind.... And no I never mistook the expirey calendar for barriers but the barriers I've seen have been either call or put barriers

It's no wonder the financial world is such a mess who the Fk could possibly keep track of all this shit. Options are barely scratching the surface. I guess all the better for us

Uncle!
Lol told you ,
Dont go to deep, If someone gives you a bar of chocolate ,all you care about is the effects,it taste nice and you know the main ingredience,you dont really need to know composite moleculor construction.
See what i mean .
Just understand the effects it has on levels of interest ,we are not economists ,we are looking for evidence of correlation to our currency pair .

Having these few fundies in the background adds weight to our analysis,lets not forget our aim is to accumulate pips.

Just understand enough to convince you it has a good correlation ,positive or negative .
Always have a live news source to monitor .
Put the statistical releases in the mixing bowl ,add them in see which side they add weight to.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #153
  • May 20, 2011 2:18am May 20, 2011 2:18am
I think this is a great idea - so often there's a sudden move with no apparent news, and you wonder 'what happened then?' Knowledge is power!
  • #154
  • May 20, 2011 2:18am May 20, 2011 2:18am
[quote=Louie;4631978]
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Useful information to note:

EUR/USD likely to head towards 1.4360: Dealers

May 19th, 2011

The story according to Reuters sources is that there is a sizeable digital option at 1.4360, due to expire early next week, and prices should gravitate towards there in the next day or so. LINK


1.4360 option Monday payout 15 mil NY cut.
Them guys are great for anyone interested because the only other way to get the info they give for free is to pay and you can pay big too.
My hat goes off to them.

But I hear rumours ,my advice use your chart to witness evidence.

Not all rumours happen, if they say big buyers at a level ,and price starts moving down then take it as unconfirmed as per your chart.

Never base entries on words ,"talk is cheap".
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #155
  • May 20, 2011 2:47am May 20, 2011 2:47am
[quote=paul1;4632000]
Quoting Louie

Them guys are great for anyone interested because the only other way to get the info they give for free is to pay and you can pay big too.
My hat goes off to them.

But I hear rumours ,my advice use your chart to witness evidence.

Not all rumours happen, if they say big buyers at a level ,and price starts moving down then take it as unconfirmed as per your chart.

Never base entries on words ,"talk is cheap".
Exactly using the chart for confirmation just like the current news of Real money offers at 1.4300 with stops building above 1.4340 topside 1.4400. Looks to be range day unless something out of the ordinary happens. Flipside, Spains elections may reveal their debt problem is bigger than originally thought. How convient for the downside push if the masses buy the rumour.
  • #156
  • May 20, 2011 5:04am May 20, 2011 5:04am
I realise this is not affecting price today .

Well It is affecting it every day ,if you have spare time it will help you understand were we are at in the monetary system.

very good information.


http://mises.org/money/4s8.asp
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #157
  • May 20, 2011 7:36am May 20, 2011 7:36am
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/0...ecommendation/

well someone thinks it will go to 1.4100.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #158
  • May 20, 2011 9:00am May 20, 2011 9:00am
UPDATE 1-Hungary banks expect below-market FX loan deal Tues

BUDAPEST, May 20 (Reuters) - Hungary's government has agreed with banks to fix a below-market repayment rate on Swiss franc denominated mortgages, and a final deal is expected next week on measures to help borrowers, a bank spokesman said on Friday.
When converting monthly instalments to forints from Swiss francs, banks will use a fixed rate of 180 forints per franc, far below the current market rate of 214.50 CHFHUF=. LINK


‘Learn to Live’ With a Strong Swissie, Says Country’s Economy Minister

The Swiss seem to have given up their fight against the strong franc and are embracing a harsher economic reality—with success. LINK

At the Swiss Economic Forum in Interlaken, Swiss Economy Minister Johann Schneider-Ammann urged the country’s business elite to “learn to live” with the strong franc, in an apparent sign that the Swiss government is unlikely to step up measures to assist the country’s companies in their struggle with the strong currency.


I have positions in CHF and JPY so maybe I'm a bit partial to these kinds of news.


Cheers,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #159
  • May 20, 2011 9:39am May 20, 2011 9:39am
Don't have the article now, but I read that there are large stops beneath 1.2400 in EUR/CHF.

20 pips stand between us, and you know how curious Mr.Market is already...

With bearish sentiment weighing on EUR/USD, it is likely we may see that level breached today in all fairness. If not today, then perhaps a gap-down may bring about some interesting action, with the Spanish elections and whatnot. May be interesting to watch.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #160
  • May 20, 2011 11:16am May 20, 2011 11:16am

GREECE smackdown special


Buba slams Greece
Buba’s Weidmann: Lengthening maturities on Greek debt means no longer accepable for collateral by ECB (LINK)

Norway slams Greece
Norway, which is a part of the European Economic Area has stopped payments to Greece. These payments are intended to compensate for economic disparities in Europe (helping the less well off invest in infrastructure and that sort of thing so that they too can become more competitive and will not need handouts in the future). Iceland, Lichtenstein and Norway suspect the money sent to Greece is not going to the intended recipients. Projects like this usually mean the recipient has to pony up some funds themselves. Athens is not following its obligation to fund 50% of projects. In light of this Norway has frozen its funds for Greece. The sum wasn't particularly large but it made it to the headlines. (LINK)


IMF slams Greece
The International Monetary Fund added to this pressure through its chief of mission in Greece, Poul Thomsen, who on Thursday informed the government that the latest inspection by the troika, which includes ECB and Commission representatives, would be suspended. Sources said the troika officials told Athens that there was no point in continuing until the government has drawn up further austerity measures and gets the ball rolling on the sale of state assets. (LINK)

Fitch slams Greece
Fitch downgrades Greece to B+, remains on negative watch
The rating was BB+ so this was a multinotch cut. (LINK)
I've added a table below for ratings guide, Greece was downgraded three notches!

Lagarde slams Greece
Says Greece in danger of default–Bloomberg (LINK)



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