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DislikedHi there,
what an interesting approach!
I like statistical analysis too...
I had coded a script primarily for Renko charts that would display statistics of sequences of consecutive up and down renko blocks, to analyse the probability of reversal, but this script can also be applied to regular (non-renko) charts.
Here is my original post:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...12#post4027612
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I have recoded it as an indicator, which makes it easier to...Ignored
Dislikedhi sq,
"With my example picture:
prob_of_reversal_after(5) = 100 - 100 * ( 48+23+5+2+6+1 ) / 1409 = 94%"
i am trying to understand how you have arrived at probability of success. if we enter after 5 consequitive green bars. in your example you are deducting the occurances of 6 or more consequitive green bars from 100. what is the guarantee they have occured AFTER our trade ? some are after and some are before. for example there are 48 occurances of 6 consequitive grreens, these 48 are from start of the test. and we are entering trades (of...Ignored
DislikedSteve,
i run the EA under the backtester on M5 with simplest settings to explore the "pure reversal rule" result:
CandlesInSeries=4
TP=10
no SL
no mptm features
no recovery features (I left "Start_Recovery_at_trades" at 2 as default).
What i observe is that a trade is opened at opening the candle following 4 consecutive green or red candles -- this is expected.
However, if the next (5th) candle is still the same color, then the EA will open another trade, and so on.
Meaning that the EA will open a new trade at each candle opening as long...Ignored
DislikedHow did you arrive at M15 as being the best time frame for all 13 pairs?Ignored
DislikedI know a week is way too soon, but from what I have observed, the only changes/options that this bot would need atm would be:
(...)
- recovery should kick in not at the consecutive same direction candle after a reversal trade triggers (as in the attached example), but when the COMPLETE 5 candle sequence kicks in again. This is only a problem when the next candle after the one that triggered the trade keeps going in the same directionIgnored
DislikedBecause the EA will keep opening new trades and premarturely reach "Start_Recovery_at_trades".
Agreed.
SqIgnored
DislikedMy point here is that we're discarding ideas without giving them enough time to for them to be tested,Ignored
Have fun. This one made a promising start on demo last week.
Dislikedhi guys
As i glance sometimes around Steeve EA, this one let me skeptic.
This strategy is built on random timing candles: thats funny but really dont talk about the future: nobody can watch the landscape if he's only looking his feet.
Better to know the weekly cycle/trend, then calculate the noise range, and be ready for bouncing
only my 2 centsIgnored
DislikedSteve, FWIW I really think this EA does have potential.
After 1 week, ea is up 10.6% with open trades sitting at +$30.61
trading all pairs (I have gone all out on this to see if it will break).
Trading 0.1 lots
Ea is set to default with SequenceMinimumCandles = 6
TP = 300
Use Recovery = True 1.2.6
Margin was never an issue.
Most trades are closing using the Recovery trailing stop
The only 2 comments/suggestions I have would be in relation to the recovery trades kicking in early as squalou explained (but it looks like you have made some adjustments...Ignored