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Flag trading the trend

  • #4,441
  • May 18, 2011 9:51am May 18, 2011 9:51am
Quoting PipRiderFX
I was just wondering what pairs everybody is trading now?

I trade the normal EU, EJ and GU but I was looking to add some other not so correlated pairs to the mix and was wondering what the success was like on the others.

I am particularly interested in what you all have to say about UJ and UC, EC or EG

Thank you
+++++++++++++

All of those pairs you mention do not have a consistant daily range to support the activity needed to trade the flag. I have found that the EG just sits there and does nothing most of the time. However during the London session is when it can be quite active. Also during this time the pairs (GU, EU) are not correlated like during the A/S or US Sess.

The one pair I look at from time to time is the gbp/nzd. The spread is murder, but the volatility if off of the charts. Still have not identified the correct method for this pair, however I will be looking at textbook 123's. 123's seem to work quite well on oil as well.

2¢
  • #4,442
  • May 18, 2011 10:13am May 18, 2011 10:13am
The last two days I have been getting murdered taking flags off signal candles which turn out to be the last swing high or low in the trend. Have there been any lessons or tips put forward to judging how many swings can take place in a trend before it starts to get unsafe to take flag trades?
  • #4,443
  • May 18, 2011 10:20am May 18, 2011 10:20am
If you have any knowledge about elliot wave you will know when its time for the A B C OR 1 2 3,

jth
  • #4,444
  • May 18, 2011 10:24am May 18, 2011 10:24am
I would suggest you take a better look at the beginning of the thread, this has been discussed numerous times, along with tips on how to avoid these hazardous trades.

Quoting Tailgun
The last two days I have been getting murdered taking flags off signal candles which turn out to be the last swing high or low in the trend. Have there been any lessons or tips put forward to judging how many swings can take place in a trend before it starts to get unsafe to take flag trades?
  • #4,445
  • May 18, 2011 12:02pm May 18, 2011 12:02pm
I looked through the first several dozen pages and found nothing explaining elliot wave and tips to avoid these issues. Can someone provide a summary?

There are a couple very good PDFs for this strategy so far; it would seem that elliot wave theory as an additional filter against bad trades would be something worth making a document about and perhaps adding to what's already been written.
  • #4,446
  • May 18, 2011 12:15pm May 18, 2011 12:15pm
Quoting Tailgun
The last two days I have been getting murdered taking flags off signal candles which turn out to be the last swing high or low in the trend. Have there been any lessons or tips put forward to judging how many swings can take place in a trend before it starts to get unsafe to take flag trades?
What pairs are you trading?

Could you give some examples ( post some charts ) as this may help Div and others better explain were the bump might be.

Elliot Wave is a tough idea to get ones head around. Div would be the best to help in that area. I liked you idea of an additional doc outlining EW. It would take some real thought as EW is very subjective at times.
  • #4,447
  • May 18, 2011 12:36pm May 18, 2011 12:36pm
It's happened to me a couple of times last night during Tokyo and again today during the am session. Below is a screenshot from a losing trade on AU 15m chart.

http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/e...bustedflag.gif
  • #4,448
  • May 18, 2011 12:38pm May 18, 2011 12:38pm
yes elliot wave is very subjective, although someone posted a very valid phrase from ww1 where it was dangerous to light your cigarrette third.

basically the chances of success generally (not allways) decreases with flag trades the more times they have pulled back.

therefore if you are looking at a possible trade - check how many times it has already pulled back in that move

general rule that holds true about 90% of the time is that the first 2 pullbacks work, after that it is more hit and miss

if you missed the initial pullbacks, either wait for a trend change or a period of consolidation (which also seems to reset the count)

not an exact science or mechanical rule but this has kept me out of a lot of losing trades (unfortunately it has also kept me out of a few winners but ce la vie)

Quoting Tailgun
I looked through the first several dozen pages and found nothing explaining elliot wave and tips to avoid these issues. Can someone provide a summary?

There are a couple very good PDFs for this strategy so far; it would seem that elliot wave theory as an additional filter against bad trades would be something worth making a document about and perhaps adding to what's already been written.
  • #4,449
  • May 18, 2011 12:41pm May 18, 2011 12:41pm
Quoting jmw1970
yes elliot wave is very subjective, although someone posted a very valid phrase from ww1 where it was dangerous to light your cigarrette third.

basically the chances of success generally (not allways) decreases with flag trades the more times they have pulled back.

therefore if you are looking at a possible trade - check how many times it has already pulled back in that move

general rule that holds true about 90% of the time is that the first 2 pullbacks work, after that it is more hit and miss

if you missed the initial pullbacks, either...
That sounds like a very good rule, thanks!
  • #4,450
  • May 18, 2011 2:26pm May 18, 2011 2:26pm
Quoting Tailgun
It's happened to me a couple of times last night during Tokyo and again today during the am session. Below is a screenshot from a losing trade on AU 15m chart.

http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/e...bustedflag.gif
Here what I see.. There are other that may be able to add more.

1) The SUB ( set up bar ) is 22 pips ( high to low ). To large per the new rules
2) RSI 8 indicated a Divergence prior to the SUB. Not a good sign (opinion)
3) The 15m TF might be a little more difficult to trade in the begining. The 5 min TF tends to give clearer signals. Less risk too.

If I may suggest, stay with the 5M TF until you have become very comfortable with the sets ups/ trend/ divergence/ EW, etc
  • #4,451
  • May 18, 2011 4:25pm May 18, 2011 4:25pm
Hi All

just uploading an "all in one" flag trading indicator

if you decide to use it, please review the attached pdf before asking questions, it should explain most points

Regards
John
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf All in One Flag Trading v2.pdf   72 KB | 3,428 downloads
File Type: ex4 !Toggle Manual Divergence.ex4   1 KB | 866 downloads
File Type: ex4 !AIO FlagTrading v2.ex4   61 KB | 1,249 downloads
  • #4,452
  • May 18, 2011 5:52pm May 18, 2011 5:52pm
Quoting Tailgun
It's happened to me a couple of times last night during Tokyo and again today during the am session. Below is a screenshot from a losing trade on AU 15m chart.

http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/e...bustedflag.gif
Where's the flag?

If you can't draw a flag, there is no trade.
  • #4,453
  • May 18, 2011 6:10pm May 18, 2011 6:10pm
Yen red flag news in 40 minutes.
  • #4,454
  • May 18, 2011 6:11pm May 18, 2011 6:11pm
Quoting jmw1970
Hi All

just uploading an "all in one" flag trading indicator

if you decide to use it, please review the attached pdf before asking questions, it should explain most points

Regards
John
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I see someone has been hard at work. Thank you sir...
  • #4,455
  • May 18, 2011 6:18pm May 18, 2011 6:18pm
Check the Containment here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_02 May. 18 18.17.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #4,456
  • May 18, 2011 6:24pm May 18, 2011 6:24pm
Quoting jmw1970
Hi All

just uploading an "all in one" flag trading indicator

if you decide to use it, please review the attached pdf before asking questions, it should explain most points

Regards
John
Hi John,

Haven't been very active here, but just came across this thread again and read your PDF (have not downloaded the indicator). All i can say is wow, you have been a hard working man. Regardless of how it functions, the way you say you combined things and the very clear PDF are
  • #4,457
  • May 18, 2011 6:58pm May 18, 2011 6:58pm
Watching EJ for 123 short.
  • #4,458
  • May 18, 2011 8:05pm May 18, 2011 8:05pm
Quoting NorwegianBlu
Where's the flag?

If you can't draw a flag, there is no trade.
So you're saying that if price comes back to the SMA but does not immediately move off the SMA in the next candle there is no trade?
  • #4,459
  • May 18, 2011 8:18pm May 18, 2011 8:18pm
Quoting Tailgun
So you're saying that if price comes back to the SMA but does not immediately move off the SMA in the next candle there is no trade?
No, I mean look at the chart. Is there a trend and a pullback? Can you draw a flag on the pullback?

Look at the pic on the first post of the thread.

Personally, I only trade the cleanest of pullbacks.
  • #4,460
  • May 18, 2011 11:58pm May 18, 2011 11:58pm
Quoting NorwegianBlu
No, I mean look at the chart. Is there a trend and a pullback? Can you draw a flag on the pullback?

Look at the pic on the first post of the thread.

Personally, I only trade the cleanest of pullbacks.
the other thing is the tf should be 5 minutes not 15 minutes.
the pull backs will be more visible too.

JTH
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