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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #95,401
  • May 17, 2011 5:02pm May 17, 2011 5:02pm
I guess it's time to go short!!
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  • #95,402
  • May 17, 2011 5:48pm May 17, 2011 5:48pm
Quoting yellomollo
I guess it's time to go short!!
Welcome to the thread.

On your chart, that bar has yet to close so, it is not a setup yet.

Also, everyone does this when we start but a PA bar is only part of the story, the rest is location.
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  • #95,403
  • May 17, 2011 5:57pm May 17, 2011 5:57pm
Quoting rustyjeff
why use the 4 hr.???
Its going to the 8750 or 87 area for sure

just a silly guess..
hello "old" friend
  • #95,404
  • May 17, 2011 6:03pm May 17, 2011 6:03pm
Quoting Pinbar
Welcome to the thread.

On your chart, that bar has yet to close so, it is not a setup yet.

Also, everyone does this when we start but a PA bar is only part of the story, the rest is location.


Thank you for your reply Pinbar!!

You bet I will wait til the bar close!



It went to the weekly R1 today (9787)

Retrace at 61.8

I guess it's at swing high

All news were bad for the US today


Thanks!
  • #95,405
  • May 17, 2011 6:20pm May 17, 2011 6:20pm
Quoting yellomollo
If you take a major pair and every day at midnight you buy or sell and place a take profit of 5 or 10 pips. I think the reward ratio is pretty high! Of course keeping in mind support and resistance.
You need to define a risk before you can examine the reward ratio. Assuming you keep it the same as your TP, you end up with a 1:1 risk to reward, with a 50% probability of either outcome (given the random entry). Which gives you a $0 EV with a zero spread. So, on average, you lose the spread on every transaction.

I probably wouldnt buy that ebook (which almost certainly exists)

Of course, you could mess with adjusting your SL as a proportion of your TP and base it around the volatility of the pair, but you will almost always end up fighting a normal distribution and end up with a negative EV. Personally, I like to think I can do a little better than a random entry - otherwise, why even bother?

Quoting yellomollo
And, sorry about my writing since it's not my first language.

Merci beaucoup encore!!
I think the only thing I managed to master after a couple of weeks in Paris and Switzerland was un cafe/une bouteille vin, s'il vous plait - so your English is excellent
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #95,406
  • May 17, 2011 6:36pm May 17, 2011 6:36pm
Quoting Pinbar
Welcome to the thread.

On your chart, that bar has yet to close so, it is not a setup yet.

Also, everyone does this when we start but a PA bar is only part of the story, the rest is location.
I marked up this chart before I saw Pin's response.....basically I'm in 100% agreement here. Today's bar looks like a pause to me.

I also see a reverse head and shoulders type of consolidation...I try not to be biased, but given the previous strength of .9700, and 4 days of higher highs and higher lows, I am currently looking for bullish PA at the 9700 area.
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  • #95,407
  • May 17, 2011 6:41pm May 17, 2011 6:41pm
Quoting joelcf
You need to define a risk before you can examine the reward ratio. Assuming you keep it the same as your TP, you end up with a 1:1 risk to reward, with a 50% probability of either outcome (given the random entry). Which gives you a $0 EV with a zero spread. So, on average, you lose the spread on every transaction.

I probably wouldnt buy that ebook (which almost certainly exists)

Of course, you could mess with adjusting your SL as a proportion of your TP and base it around the volatility of the pair, but you will almost always end up...

Thank you for the reply Joel!!

Thanks a lot for the appreciation!!!

What we say here in Canada (Quebec) when we know little in English is (yes,no,toaster)
  • #95,408
  • May 17, 2011 7:03pm May 17, 2011 7:03pm
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-JH9a3pA1V5...%2B5-17-11.png
  • #95,409
  • May 17, 2011 8:58pm May 17, 2011 8:58pm
Did anyone notice the Bearish Engulfing Bar on the GBP/CHF Daily chart that closed on 5/16/11?

http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/f...bpchf51711.jpg

My reason for taking the trade was:

1.The Bearish Engulfing Bar
2. That "tested" the area of the 38.2 Fibo Ret
3. That also bounced of a round number (1.45000)
4. That closed below the 25% Fibo Ret
5. That most importantly continues in the overall "down trend".

There was only one reason I was questionable about the trade & that was the fact that the bar bounced off of the previous low of 3/16/11 & the highs of 5/5/11.

I am looking for words of wisdom!! Please chime in if you have something helpful to say!! Why does it seem that I am the only guy that took this? I banked Pips but it scares me that no one else is speaking of this.
  • #95,410
  • May 17, 2011 10:17pm May 17, 2011 10:17pm
Quoting Donkey
I marked up this chart before I saw Pin's response.....basically I'm in 100% agreement here. Today's bar looks like a pause to me.

I also see a reverse head and shoulders type of consolidation...I try not to be biased, but given the previous strength of .9700, and 4 days of higher highs and higher lows, I am currently looking for bullish PA at the 9700 area.
.9700 is at at 50% ret as well
Anything can happen.
  • #95,411
  • May 17, 2011 11:55pm May 17, 2011 11:55pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey B

Yeah we have people who trade everything really. Jims big thing is the Mini Dow, that's where his bread and butter is really

PA is good across the board thats the best part of it

Hope that helps
Mike
Hey Mike..

Forgot to ask the other day but with Jim's 2000 tick chart is that a 15min TF or is it a shorter TF or is he using a different TF altogether??

Cheers,
Adrian
  • #95,412
  • May 18, 2011 12:04am May 18, 2011 12:04am
Quoting aarangio
Forgot to ask the other day but with Jim's 2000 tick chart is that a 15min TF or is it a shorter TF or is he using a different TF altogether??
A 2000 tick chart is... a 2000 tick chart

In the YM, its generally somewhere between 5 and 15 minutes.
In ES, it's more like 40 seconds to a minute.

(both will vary wildly, depending on time of day/week/month/year/etc)

Pretty sure the big guy concentrates on YM.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #95,413
  • May 18, 2011 12:16am May 18, 2011 12:16am
Quoting joelcf
A 2000 tick chart is... a 2000 tick chart

In the YM, its generally somewhere between 5 and 15 minutes.

Pretty sure the big guy concentrates on YM.
Hi ya Joelcf..

lol, I thought a 2000tick chart was for certain softwares and compares to some type of 5/15m TF etc..on a different platform..

Yes, as Mike pointed out earlier that's his baby

Thanks for your help

Cheers,
Adrian
  • #95,414
  • May 18, 2011 12:21am May 18, 2011 12:21am
Quoting joelcf
A 2000 tick chart is... a 2000 tick chart

In the YM, its generally somewhere between 5 and 15 minutes.
In ES, it's more like 40 seconds to a minute.

(both will vary wildly, depending on time of day/week/month/year/etc)

Pretty sure the big guy concentrates on YM.
hey Joel, just to clarify, what does that mean? the chart prints a bar every time price moves 2000 times??

cheers

jon

p.s. keep seeing you lurking. good to see you posting your wisdom mate
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #95,415
  • Edited 12:42am May 18, 2011 12:31am | Edited 12:42am
Quoting aarangio
lol, I thought a 2000tick chart was for certain softwares and compares to some type of 5/15m TF etc..on a different platform..
Sorry, for some reason my reply managed to lose a few paras

A tick chart just represents price movement in terms of trades, rather than time. So on a 2000 tick chart, each bar represents the OHLC of each 2000 trades that happened, regardless of how long it took.

(note: different from a volume chart, which would construct a bar after each 2000 contracts)

(doublenote: obv, both tick and vol data is garbage in fx)

Any decent broker should provide tick feed, and any decent software can interpret it and let you produce an x tick chart. Jim used to use TS, not sure if he still does - IIRC, he had some new super secret weapon in his arsenal he was testing.

Quoting g_j_hook@yah
hey Joel, just to clarify, what does that mean? the chart prints a bar every time price moves 2000 times??

p.s. keep seeing you lurking. good to see you posting your wisdom mate
That's the way an fx tick chart works - its kind of a tick proxy, since you dont see the individual trades flowing through. Technically, it isnt really a tick chart though, since there could be 2000 trades and no price movement with sufficient market depth.

(Been away for a few months, but sadly back to the real world now)
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #95,416
  • May 18, 2011 12:35am May 18, 2011 12:35am
Quoting joelcf
Sorry, for some reason my reply managed to lose a few paras

A tick chart just represents price movement in terms of trades, rather than time. So on a 2000 tick chart, each bar represents the OHLC of each 2000 trades that happened, regardless of how long it took....
hi Joel sos for another q. does 1 trade necessarily move price??

cheers
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #95,417
  • May 18, 2011 12:46am May 18, 2011 12:46am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
hi Joel sos for another q. does 1 trade necessarily move price??

cheers
Not necessarily - if you are offering a thousand contracts at 100.00, and I am a brokeass and can only buy one, then I wont be moving the market with my trade. But if I were to buy 1001 units, then to complete my order price would have to move to wherever the next offer is sitting (or a new seller would have to enter at 100.00).

That's why fx tick/volume charts are inherently flawed, except maybe as a measure of volatility.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #95,418
  • May 18, 2011 12:57am May 18, 2011 12:57am
Quoting joelcf
Not necessarily - if you are offering a thousand contracts at 100.00, and I am a brokeass and can only buy one, then I wont be moving the market with my trade. But if I were to buy 1001 units, then to complete my order price would have to move to wherever the next offer is sitting (or a new seller would have to enter at 100.00).

That's why fx tick/volume charts are inherently flawed, except maybe as a measure of volatility.
lol...

ah yes, of course.Should have thought it through.
thanx man.

jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #95,419
  • May 18, 2011 12:57am May 18, 2011 12:57am
Quoting slade1986
Stark,

If you're on FXCM Micro, as I am, you have to send an email requesting all the additional symbols.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...91#post4430191
Thanks for letting me know, but as luck would have it some kind soul from FXCM spotted my post and sorted it out for me! How's that for customer service?!
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.
  • #95,420
  • May 18, 2011 1:00am May 18, 2011 1:00am
Selling idea on eurcad..
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