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  • #421
  • Edited 4:24am May 16, 2011 4:08am | Edited 4:24am
Quoting 5.25
Hey Pat,

R in this instance is RISK, not REWARD.

I RISKED double the size of the gap.

The RISK to REWARD is low but the chances of winning a trade is HIGH, which should eventually put you into profit over time. Hope this helps.

T
I've collected data using stops sizes of HALF the gap, the SAME SIZE as the gap and DOUBLE the gap and the good news it, it doesn't really matter how you trade these gaps in terms of stops.

The expectancy is almost identical on all of them.

It just depends on the traders personal preference. Some people prefer to win the majority of the time and are OK with taking a bigger loss from time to time.

Others prefer to win about half the time but know that half of that time they are going to make double what they risked.

The strike rates are now:

0.5 R (stop double the gap) - 85.45%

1 R (stop same size as the gap) - 63.63%

2 R (stop half the gap) - 47.27%
  • #422
  • May 16, 2011 4:27am May 16, 2011 4:27am
Morning

Great webinar again Tom, many thanks for doing these.

With regard to stops at s/r levels, I remember you telling us that you place your stop above/below the last candle to open above close below the level you are trading.

Does this mean that you are using the last daily or hourly candle to close above/below the level for your stop if you are trading off the hourly charts ?

Hope this makes sense.

Cheers
  • #423
  • May 16, 2011 4:29am May 16, 2011 4:29am
Quoting the_wizard
Good work mate.

The strike rate will dip a little over time. I've got it at 86% now over the last two years.

In addition to your stats, I would advise journalling the date, gap size, drawdown before fill and maybe some notes on how it fills. e.g. With hindsight are there better ways to play it?

It takes a couple of minutes each week but it is well worth while.

That way, if in the future it ever stops working as effectively, you will be able to look at your journal and work out how to trade it for profit while everyone else either leaves...

Hi Tom

You mentioned in the webinar that one of the greatest contributions to your consistency and profitability as a trader was journal keeping. From what I understand from this post above and from other comments you have alluded to, your journal is far more than just a record of trades. Would you mind expanding on this?
I tihnk it would benefit us all if we knew the most effective way to set up a journal and the content it should cover.
Maybe this a subject for the webinar rather than a repsonse here?

Thanks
Ian
  • #424
  • May 16, 2011 5:12am May 16, 2011 5:12am
Quoting pipz4me
Hi Tom

You mentioned in the webinar that one of the greatest contributions to your consistency and profitability as a trader was journal keeping. From what I understand from this post above and from other comments you have alluded to, your journal is far more than just a record of trades. Would you mind expanding on this?
I tihnk it would benefit us all if we knew the most effective way to set up a journal and the content it should cover.
Maybe this a subject for the webinar rather than a repsonse here?

Thanks
Ian
OK cool. I will show you exactly how I do this in the next one.
  • #425
  • May 16, 2011 5:25am May 16, 2011 5:25am
I'm going to be offering 0.7835 in the NZD/USD.

Keep your eye on that FTSE too. There is going to be a good trade there as discussed yesterday.
  • #426
  • May 16, 2011 5:53am May 16, 2011 5:53am
What do you guys think of the level on JPM?

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  • #427
  • May 16, 2011 7:42am May 16, 2011 7:42am
This is the pattern we discussed in yesterdays webinar - calling for a push higher today.

Thanks to Atc for spotting it.
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  • #428
  • May 16, 2011 11:13am May 16, 2011 11:13am
Quoting the_wizard
I'm going to be offering 0.7835 in the NZD/USD.

Keep your eye on that FTSE too. There is going to be a good trade there as discussed yesterday.
Hi Tom,

If the daily closes a bullish Pin Bar on NZDUSD...what do you do with your trade?
Do you close it or do you leave it with stoploss in place?
Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
  • #429
  • May 16, 2011 12:40pm May 16, 2011 12:40pm
Quoting Chris_B
Hi Tom,

If the daily closes a bullish Pin Bar on NZDUSD...what do you do with your trade?
Do you close it or do you leave it with stoploss in place?
Most likely cut and reverse long into the lows of the left eye.
  • #430
  • May 17, 2011 5:13am May 17, 2011 5:13am
Quoting plund
What do you guys think of the level on JPM?

Attachment
I like it Plund. I was looking at some stocks last night and there are a few nice setups among the Dow 30 stocks. That was one of the ones that caught my eye.
  • #431
  • May 17, 2011 6:13am May 17, 2011 6:13am
Anyone catch the eur/jpy 115.50 breakout? Tom do you always wait for a retest or do you sometimes get in before the breakout, in this case a buy at 115.20 with trendline and some horizontal support
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  • #432
  • May 17, 2011 6:29am May 17, 2011 6:29am
Quoting Scotty2Cues
Anyone catch the eur/jpy 115.50 breakout? Tom do you always wait for a retest or do you sometimes get in before the breakout, in this case a buy at 115.20 with trendline and some horizontal support
Yep, got in on that buob closing above the level. I'm out after 30 pips.

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  • #433
  • May 17, 2011 9:29am May 17, 2011 9:29am
Tom,

Would you have traded this?

I was tempted, but had some doubts so I passed....was completely convinced, but didn't know why exactly. I thought it looked overextended/ATR.

Just looking for your view. Purple line looked like a quick target.

Thanks
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  • #434
  • May 17, 2011 9:34am May 17, 2011 9:34am
Anybody watching the DJI? Currently at a good daily S/R level.

At work so can't post a chart.
  • #435
  • Edited 1:51pm May 17, 2011 9:35am | Edited 1:51pm
HI Wiz, would really like to join your Sunday webinar group if I may. Email is xxxxxxxxxxxx

Thanks,

Gregg
Gregg Sniper in training
  • #436
  • May 17, 2011 9:38am May 17, 2011 9:38am
Quoting Atc
Tom,

Would you have traded this?

I was tempted, but had some doubts so I passed....was completely convinced, but didn't know why exactly. I thought it looked overextended/ATR.

Just looking for your view. Purple line looked like a quick target.

Thanks
Hey ATC,

I thought this was a good area. Unfortunately was not around my pc at the time reached it.

Would also be interested to hear Tom's thoughts.

Cheers
  • #437
  • May 17, 2011 11:45am May 17, 2011 11:45am
S/R and 50% fib confluence. Is there more to say Wizard? :-)
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  • #438
  • May 17, 2011 12:16pm May 17, 2011 12:16pm
Quoting belekas
S/R and 50% fib confluence. Is there more to say Wizard? :-)
i like it (gj pointed that one out) nice fib too..
  • #439
  • May 17, 2011 12:18pm May 17, 2011 12:18pm
anyone looking to buy gbp/jpy at 131.50-131.28 ? price reacting at 50% fib and 61% retracement in the buy zone. Lots of history there, will look for risk:return of at least 1:2.
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  • #440
  • May 17, 2011 5:00pm May 17, 2011 5:00pm
Tom's favourite working out pretty well so far
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