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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #24,961
  • May 14, 2011 10:14pm May 14, 2011 10:14pm
Quoting luSan
Still alive...Ah....should I, should I?
Do I dare?
Greeting to the chief
and the dancing troup.
Welcome back

rgs
Baifu
  • #24,962
  • May 14, 2011 10:43pm May 14, 2011 10:43pm
Quoting luSan
Still alive...Ah....should I, should I?
Do I dare?
Greeting to the chief
and the dancing troup.
Darn so good to see u................


anytime u hitting NYC soon???


V
  • #24,963
  • May 14, 2011 11:58pm May 14, 2011 11:58pm
Quoting Fana
Not scalpers? Do you know people who believes to the power of magic? Predicting future from cards? Reverse this process and be like an opposite person to them. Smart, quick decissions, choosing only important, concentrated and have great inside. And in this state ask yourselves questions about the market. Why rescue with using only few pips? Count how big rescue position you will use and how quick is the market. Do you feel that NOW it is tension to go...??? How far it will be safe for your big ball? 5pips? Can you risk 10pips???

Rigid:-) Example...

Fana as i have stated, FTI does not teach any rigid methodologies if you are good at scalping then so be it.

from my little experience on the markets i have found that , i am most profitable when going in the direction of the trend. i have gotten burned trying to rescue against it so i need to learn.
when to fight and when not to fight
i need to open my eyes better and understand the direction.

as the art of war said. you win by making no mistakes, one needs to first win the battle and then fight. one needs to first put ourselves in a position unassailable, in essence trade defensively control your risk as that is the only thing that one CAN control. then wait for the market to show her hand.

if trading in the right direction you could scale any way you see fit and still make a profit, however if not, that is where problems lie.

when trading a strong euro trend i scaled 5,5,15 and profited 1235813 and profited, on retracement i averaged 1235813 and as the rubberband snapped i profited, because i was buying in a bull market. think about that.

but i am still clumsy in the fact that one needs to not be lucky but identify market structure and form. i know you are trying to help me, and i thank you.

but my philosophy and my next focus will be RISK AVERSION, and CONTROLING RISK EXPOSURE. if i can trade controling my risks i can be one step ahead. forage on the enemy scale when in profit, average when in the right direction,

what if im not in the right direction, that is my concern and i will embrace that, my loses happen when im not in the right direction. so that leads me to believe that first and foremost IDENTIFY DIRECTION. easier said than done.

sell rallies on a bear market
buy weakness on a bull market
and sell the top of the range on a toping ranging market
buy the bottom of a range on a consolidating rangin market.

now to implement this takes experience, takes brains, takes flexibility, takes more than one can imagine.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #24,964
  • Edited 12:42am May 15, 2011 12:15am | Edited 12:42am
my assignment for the following trading week will be IDENTIFY DIRECTION

who of the new traders would like to join me in this seemingly simple task (its tougher than it sounds) all week and maybe month or year, however long this takes me, i will focus on identifying direction. nothing else, purely direction

I believe if i cant complete this fundamental task i dont belong trading.

once this is mastered we can move on to other FTI teachings
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #24,965
  • May 15, 2011 12:30am May 15, 2011 12:30am
Quoting luSan
Still alive...Ah....should I, should I?
Do I dare?
Greeting to the chief
and the dancing troup.
A blast from the past!
Great to hear from you mate.
Hope your trading is still going well. Ray
  • #24,966
  • May 15, 2011 1:48am May 15, 2011 1:48am
Quoting the redlion
[...]

but my philosophy and my next focus will be RISK AVERSION, and CONTROLING RISK EXPOSURE. if i can trade controling my risks i can be one step ahead. forage on the enemy scale when in profit, average when in the right direction,

what if im not in the right direction, that is my concern and i will embrace that, my loses happen when im not in the right direction. so that leads me to believe that first and foremost IDENTIFY DIRECTION. easier said than done.

sell rallies on a bear market
buy weakness on a bull market
and sell the top of...
Hi RedLion,

thanx for your efforts to compile that summary posted a few oosts back. It was a n good read ... :-)

But I want to relate to what have stated above.
Let's have a little experiment together.
Please forget everything you believe to know about the markets for a moment and follow my thoughts.

You see a move on the chart with increasing momentum at that moment in time. Because you can never be sure about anything in the market, especially in these rough and manipulated times, what takes more prediction? To take advantage of the very obvious momentum just right now for the time it lasts? Or to believe that it may last for the next 20 ot 30 pips because it i in the direction of prevailing trend?

Now the next step of my little thought experiment.
Pleasse forget about pips, money, percentages or whatever you take to measure your performance. Please forget also about timeframes for a moment. Do not have anything defined in your mind. (I knw that'S quite impossible, but give it a try ....)

Just have a look at a imaginary chart.
When the momentum is going up, you scale in.
Strong, with strong momentum.
Careful, with only low momentum.
When momentum is fading, scale down some exposure.

When your PA reading shows even more fading momentum, or possible first signs of a turn yet, scale out even more.

Well, after a while you see some increasing momentum again.
You put in some trrops again according to the speed.
There is a small hesitation, then it continues the move with still growing momentum.
Momentum decreases. Move stops suddenly.
You take out some troops.

You are focussed on PA.
You see, that every attempt of continuation of the move got stopped immediately.
You take out all your troops now.

Ok - when your read the above carefully, you will recognize that I have NOT talken about the direction of te move at any time. Only about following the flow and manging your exposure actively according to the actions on the chart at any moment in time. I think you have to forget about any kind of rigid predefined ideas of trading styles. Juts follow the flow at any moment in time.

When you scale in and out all the time (According to PA), you keep your BE (relative) close to PA. And you are also taking always the appropriate risk in that specific market. That's dancing ....

I have also not talken about any TimeFrame above. Because for following fti'S teachings it does not matter. When trading the M5 mainly, a one minute chart trader seems to be like a scalper. When trading most of the time from the M15 chart, a M5 Chart trader seems to be like a scalper for you already. It is all relative. The idea is to follow the flow and that can be done on very different time frames ...

As I have had said above, please forget about all that rigit definitions of trading styles. Just ask YOU about YOUR personality and the time windows you have for your trading. When you have a few hours only, then you should shift your main trading timeframe to the lower side of the scale. As fti has mentioned in the early days of the thread:
When your are trading the M5 chart and you have to rescue, scale out a little to a longer TF. Your rescue might last a few hours. If trading based on the hourly mainly, Your rescues may last even days ...

BTW - Especially when you have not been able to collect too much experiences in the markets yet. What sounds to be easier and safer: To have an idea wthat will happen in the next minute or so? Or to have an idea about the next 10 or 20 minutes?

Most of the time things can be much more easy to decide, when we try to get rid of all our prejudgements and things we have heard about for a moment and try to use our own brainwork ...

So there is no right or wrong.
There is just you and your needs.
You have to define the a valid trading environment for you.
In the next step you have to implement fti'S teachings according to your constraints ...

Hope I could make the point clear.
Please ask - you are at an important step of your learning.
And I have the feeing that your definitons are to rigid to take full potential of fti'S teachings ...

Please do not take it personally.
Just try to ponder about that experiment above for a while.
You should take the teachings on more abstract level from my point of view ...

All the best,
Niels
  • #24,967
  • Edited 2:27am May 15, 2011 2:08am | Edited 2:27am
Hi ALL,
Some last messages.

Theres some here, evil people of vested interest.
They come with handshake of friendship , welding knifes at their back.
Had attempted so many ways and means distract and misinform,.
They cite my Mo, with much intentions divert.
They could be brokers or they could be vested interested that cannot bear the losses they incurring already.
Also many are trying cause scalping MO.
They come citing high credentials but not proved any worthwhile contributions.
If anything seems desperados.
I had said before, you cannot out scalp the brokers and Market makers because you giving away spread edge.
In fact due to my physical conditions, i had moved to multiple hourly sequences, than the 5 mins. And even now is grapling with markets on theoritical edge by their accounting scams. Fortunately there's sufficient resources to see this thru for now.

As in all things in life, evil is always at the doorsteps, masked in all forms.
To decieve and distract the unknowing from the truth.
Unfortunately i have little energies bring them to light. So I ask you, those that are truly learning, to use your mind and think and find the true paths by your self deligence.
Pray to God that evil is kept far from your doors, and the fortitute to see thru deceptions.

Deceptions and attractiveness will always be used by evil to tempt and decieve, so like a good warrior, be on your guards, always. Money IS cause of much evils always. Guard your assets well.

When even HONOURBLE people embraces murderous means to justify means to ends, then deception is dominance. So when it comes down to money...................................................................., you see the heart can feel true honour or if its bullshit, over time. No questions, once questionable then ???????????? Mostly hard to tell truth from deception. Motive normally is early signs. Hidden agenda can be very long route.

By the way, Diana premier is on, truth or lies. I didn't witness.

Inserted Video


regards
  • #24,968
  • May 15, 2011 2:24am May 15, 2011 2:24am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,
Some last messages.

Theres some here, evil people of vested interest.
They come with handshake of friendship , welding knifes at their back.
Had attempted so many ways and means distract and misinform,.
They cite my Mo, with much intentions divert.
They could be brokers or they could be vested interested that cannot bear the losses they incurring already.
Also many are trying cause scalping MO.
They come citing high credentials but not proved any worthwhile contributions.
If anything seems desperados.
I had said before, you cannot...
Good Morning Fti. Who is it? I think that internet especially youtube is degraded by such people. What i see there being presented and that lessons videos... They have written it in their face... gambler... scammer...most often imo gamblers who are not able self-discipline so they sell they bullshits. They are mostly good actors... But here? In TAF???
  • #24,969
  • May 15, 2011 2:32am May 15, 2011 2:32am
Quoting Fana
Good Morning Fti. Who is it? I think that internet especially youtube is degraded by such people. What i see there being presented and that lessons videos... They have written it in their face... gambler... scammer...most often imo gamblers who are not able self-discipline so they sell they bullshits. They are mostly good actors... But here? In TAF???
Fana,
listen song huh.
You not Archangel Michael, so just watch your own behind.
Evil will show hand over time. Let God deal with it.

regards
  • #24,970
  • May 15, 2011 2:35am May 15, 2011 2:35am
Quoting luSan
Still alive...Ah....should I, should I?
Do I dare?
Greeting to the chief
and the dancing troup.
so you brought any feathers for me?
naik pangkat.(promoted?)

regards
  • #24,971
  • May 15, 2011 2:58am May 15, 2011 2:58am
just when i was finishing, this came over the wire.



http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-sto...5875-23119508/

get the point?

regards
  • #24,972
  • Edited 3:38am May 15, 2011 3:13am | Edited 3:38am
From this moment i wont present any of my own tradings. I am still not a milionaire, so i have to look after myself first. I also think, that everybody can study the thread originally from Fti as he presented it. Let it be only under his wish how and for whoom he had presented it.
- Question for others. Are you already milionaire? Should you give advices then?
- Sorry but i will be cruel now. How is it possible that anybody who is not a milionaire from FX gives advices? HOW???
The only place when you can ask me is now in the market. And the question will be limited to Bid/Ask. And i wont be friendly:-))).
  • #24,973
  • May 15, 2011 3:52am May 15, 2011 3:52am
OMG, its all creeping out of the cupboards.
http://www.dnaindia.com/world/report...-hotel_1543365

wierd day. very very wierd.
Who's next?
I am switching off systems, my heart cannot take this.

regards
  • #24,974
  • Edited 5:27am May 15, 2011 3:53am | Edited 5:27am
Quoting fti
OMG, its all creeping out of the cupboards.
http://www.dnaindia.com/world/report...-hotel_1543365

wierd day. very very wierd.
Who's next?
I am switching off systems, my heart cannot take this.

regards
Obama, Putin and Jack Daniels:-)§

Obama made some decisions about Oil? Afraid from electromobils? MMF director no fitting to US? Conspiracy? What is it?

Sorry Fti, i am a little bit slow, i think now i understand... It is not about to bring it on the golden plate to everybody imho... Regards
  • #24,975
  • May 15, 2011 5:29am May 15, 2011 5:29am
Quoting Fana
Obama, Putin and Jack Daniels:-)§

Obama made some decisions about Oil? Afraid from electromobils? MMF director no fitting to US? Conspiracy? What is it?

Sorry Fti, i am a little bit slow, i think now i understand... It is not about to bring it on the golden plte to everybody imho... Regards
Fana , steady fana.
Wonder if thread reaching 1 666 , has any significance.
If you had achieve mindset equilibrium for profitability, then stay on it.
No one can help anyone else if self fails.
So main task is self, then help others.
Wondering why you feeling so figity.

Oh also big earthquake in china now. hearing 8.0 near sichuan.. So be alert. Major stuff happening all over the place.

regards
  • #24,976
  • May 15, 2011 5:33am May 15, 2011 5:33am
Quoting fti
Fana , steady fana.
Wonder if thread reaching 1 666 , has any significance.
If you had achieve mindset equilibrium for profitability, then stay on it.
No one can help anyone else if self fails.
So main task is self, then help others.
Wondering why you feeling so figity.

Oh also big earthquake in china now. hearing 8.0 near sichuan.. So be alert. Major stuff happening all over the place.

regards
What is figity please?
  • #24,977
  • Edited 6:07am May 15, 2011 5:37am | Edited 6:07am
Quoting Fana
What is figity please?
Yeah. My mom has some health problems with her eye and also in my family it is not very ideal... Brothers wedding and so... Apologize.
- but despite during week i am sticked to the market, i must make some "thinkings"... Sorry, just listening quietly already... :-)
In fact, it is catastroph. Everytime i am visiting her, she is telling me that her health problems are caused by me! because i am not teacher as she wants, but som unsave and unclear profession as trader. " You cost me a lot of health and when will you finaly understand and start to work as a normal people!". This is what i have to fight hardly and dont know what to tell her! And my brother Arnold doesnt behave good to her... he behaves like a king and he told me what i never thought it is possible. He is somehow changed last time, he told me, i should not go to his room when i am on visit. When i was a kid, it was my room. I am sorry for that word, but SHIT!!!
  • #24,978
  • May 15, 2011 6:04am May 15, 2011 6:04am
Quoting Fana
From this moment i wont present any of my own tradings. I am still not a milionaire, so i have to look after myself first. I also think, that everybody can study the thread originally from Fti as he presented it. Let it be only under his wish how and for whoom he had presented it.
- Question for others. Are you already milionaire? Should you give advices then?
- Sorry but i will be cruel now. How is it possible that anybody who is not a milionaire from FX gives advices? HOW???
The only place when you can ask me is now in the market. And the...

yes.........!!!!
  • #24,979
  • May 15, 2011 6:05am May 15, 2011 6:05am
Quoting fti
OMG, its all creeping out of the cupboards.
http://www.dnaindia.com/world/report...-hotel_1543365

wierd day. very very wierd.
Who's next?
I am switching off systems, my heart cannot take this.

regards
crazy old man
  • #24,980
  • Edited 7:56am May 15, 2011 6:20am | Edited 7:56am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,
Some last messages.

Theres some here, evil people of vested interest.
They come with handshake of friendship , welding knifes at their back.
Had attempted so many ways and means distract and misinform,.
They cite my Mo, with much intentions divert.
They could be brokers or they could be vested interested that cannot bear the losses they incurring already.
Also many are trying cause scalping MO.
They come citing high credentials but not proved any worthwhile contributions.
If anything seems desperados.
I had said before, you cannot out scalp...
yo, this one caught my attention. If you mean me, please let me know as well as the entire thread. So that I can walk away as well.

Edit:
Also yes I guess I have a vested interest, not in broking relations or tiered interest, but in being nimble.
-I'm short the yen as well.

Interesting to see a different approach to the metals margin hikes we've seen here.
Maybe too big too fail dealer short books truly want the markets turned into a casino.

http://www.sharenet.co.za/news/Shang...9b7bf7b70b2b37


Rgds.
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