Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 1247 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #24,921
  • May 12, 2011 1:18pm May 12, 2011 1:18pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi again,

just a common finding that I made during my talks with some traders.
Maybe you know it too ...





Things go very often like this:[list][*]You learn something new.
You spend a lot of time with reading and research
to grasp the concept[*]You do your training. After the first few steps you gather some experiences.[*]You can see some ideas behind.
You are thinking: "Could it really be that simple?"[*]You are becoming successful[*]But because you are a human being, you try to optimize and tweak some parameters and procedures...

  • #24,922
  • May 12, 2011 1:31pm May 12, 2011 1:31pm
I like this topic ...
may develop a few good professionals ...
if you will go to the institution and will not work on their own account ...
it's probably just as would a waste of time ...

"Speculation can be made profession , if know how to manage risk."
FTI
  • #24,923
  • Edited 7:49pm May 12, 2011 3:48pm | Edited 7:49pm
Hi Mamood.
Ah woke up early today.
Thank you for the many PMs.
Please be aware that no apologies are called for nor necessary.
I responfd to you here because i am still determined to keep the thread alive and unfortunately have limit energies and feel incapacitated to deal with one on one communications as well as thread.

You are trader of your own standing, and you are not accountable to me or anyone else of your MO or opinions.
You are only accountable for your own books health to yourself.And this is a public forum,a and you are at liberty to speak your mind. However you may be challenged to your views, buts that normal day to day living.

Similarly althought i may not agrree with heli's policies or his managing of his tasks.
All i do is voice my 2 cts as my critic to bring my perspective of what i see.
I need not go have head on confrontations with him.
We are all adults and have capacity to agree to disagree.

Like also for instance , my change of MO due to my situation.
I am responsible for my own book and managing exposures from bed is unhealthy. I frequently doze away. so i had readjusted my scope of tenure of trades. The jap finance minister had very graciously updated the markets about the yen status and their position.
Markets are always right.
So I had taken that under advicement.
I therefore had increased my contingency capabilities by 50x on my exposures. and they can hardly make a dent on my cash exposures.
Althought is may not be impossible for markets hurt mu book, they would have to walk thru brimstone and fire to cause damage.

As you understand trading has its own learning curves for everyone. Mostly are different. So there's no rights and wrongs, only best practises and book safety. So traders must adjust and re adjust to the markets as circumstance requires.

Feels tired , so plase excuse, i need go back to resting.


regards

"There are no perpectual friends, neither perpectual enemies, only perpectual interest."

Inserted Video
  • #24,924
  • May 12, 2011 9:09pm May 12, 2011 9:09pm
Japanese Reactor Damage Is Worse Than Expected
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/13/wo...a/13japan.html
  • #24,925
  • May 12, 2011 10:00pm May 12, 2011 10:00pm
Quoting fti
Japanese Reactor Damage Is Worse Than Expected
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/13/wo...a/13japan.html
that was reason of sudden drop of UJ...???

just came to check the charts and saw this one drop


V
  • #24,926
  • May 12, 2011 10:35pm May 12, 2011 10:35pm
Quoting fti
Japanese Reactor Damage Is Worse Than Expected
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/13/wo...a/13japan.html
Hello Fti!

I cant not ask... I dont trade long term, but i still dont know, why you support the think about Yen-bear. It seems to me... not yet or no-signs. Do you think that damage from tsunami is "the" what will cause yen fall? Or China involved? US? from the history such catastrophes could have an opposite effect. people are disciplined and hungry for the work! They stick to each other and they are like one man after such catastrophes. And in combination with Japan menthality... ??? Sory for humble thinkings. Thank you :-)
  • #24,927
  • May 12, 2011 10:49pm May 12, 2011 10:49pm
Interesting imho : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_exchanges
  • #24,928
  • May 12, 2011 10:53pm May 12, 2011 10:53pm
Quoting Fana
Hello Fti!

I cant not ask... I dont trade long term, but i still dont know, why you support the think about Yen-bear. It seems to me... not yet or no-signs. Do you think that damage from tsunami is "the" what will cause yen fall? Or China involved? US? from the history such catastrophes could have an opposite effect. people are disciplined and hungry for the work! They stick to each other and they are like one man after such catastrophes. And in combination with Japan menthality... ??? Sory for humble thinkings. Thank you :-)
Hi fana,

i not very sure.
But after the calamity, and the loss of some power generation capabilities,
suggests to me japan's industrial producton figures would be weaker. More over the radiation fears not going to help her exports.

Then the re construction efforts is going use up much resources , so would orgg well for imports.

So all ground factors points to a weaker yen in the longer term.
But markets flowing another way and i not found out the reason why yet.

Unfortunately i not able trade actively
so i am just positioning .

The latest report of possibilities of melt down if containment fails also is considered. And exodus of migration also would create a weaker yen.

The problem seems the usd is capitalising on the yen and behaving extremely lame. But the conditions in US may change as the political realignment may occur next year , so the time frame may be extended.

Whats happening now is inflation seems capping cable and the greece issues are still on the table. So not expecting like major up runs yet.

So like i mentioned earlier i would be in favour long minors and exotics against the yen.
But you are tarading actively and should therefore be unaffected by these bias , because of you closeness to markets you will still have opportunity to react when the yen crosses bottoms out or the currencies begins their rallys.

For now lots unseen stuff is happening in the undercurents. Best stay with flow.
regards
  • #24,929
  • May 12, 2011 10:57pm May 12, 2011 10:57pm
Quoting fti
Hi fana,

i not very sure.
But after the calamity, and the loss of some power generation capabilities,
suggests to me japan's industrial producton figures would be weaker. More over the radiation fears not going to help her exports.

Then the re construction efforts is going use up much resources , so would orgg well for imports.

So all ground factors points to a weaker yen in the longer term.
But markets flowing another way and i not found out the reason why yet.

Unfortunately i not able trade actively
so i am just positioning .

The...
Yes... Thank you for explaining Fti. Regards
  • #24,930
  • May 12, 2011 11:06pm May 12, 2011 11:06pm
Quoting fti
Hi Mamood.
Ah woke up early today.
Thank you for the many PMs.
Please be aware that no apologies are called for nor necessary.

[...]

You are trader of your own standing, and you are not accountable to me or anyone else of your MO or opinions.
You are only accountable for your own books health to yourself.And this is a public forum,a and you are at liberty to speak your mind. However you may be challenged to your views, buts that normal day to day living.

[...]

"There are no perpectual friends, neither perpectual enemies, only perpectual...
Good morning fti,

many many thanx for your reply.
I think I got your message (this time) very clear....

Thanx for spending your precious energies on that.

All the best,
Niels
  • #24,931
  • May 12, 2011 11:09pm May 12, 2011 11:09pm
Quoting Fana
Yes... Thank you for explaining Fti. Regards
on closer thinking, i believe my posting bias, is counter productive for your active trading. So i will refrain from more of these activities. But i don't see how i can come back to active trading with my conditions. But i would be happy to see someone come carry the thread forward.

In fact if without the nihon incidents i would be in full retirement as there's nothing to do. So for me is an attempt to stay useful.

regards
  • #24,932
  • Edited May 13, 2011 2:03am May 12, 2011 11:12pm | Edited May 13, 2011 2:03am
Quoting fti
on closer thinking, i believe my posting bias, is counter productive for your active trading. So i will refrain from more of these activities. But i don't see how i can come back to active trading with my conditions. But i would be happy to see someone come carry the thread forward.

regards
:-))). I know you will come backa! But now please rest and pationce... Thank you for encouragement!

...now i have 27 profitable days in a row... maybe... some change already:-)

Regards

This is an exaple how thinks go... Just imagine what had happened few minutes i wrote that i have this success. I lost attention and i got into problems... Fortunatelly i saved it all and finished in profit, but had to use bigger ball to get there agyin! Be carefull in every moment of trading!
  • #24,933
  • May 13, 2011 1:09am May 13, 2011 1:09am
Quoting MaMood
Dear Friends,

I owe you a decision about the question I asked you yesterday. Yeah – that “public Trading” thingy.
Hi MaMood,

just wanted to say that whatever you decide, the occasional postings of blotters (yours, fti's or anybodies that has developed good dancing abilities) had helped me get a better understanding of this MO and strategies to cope with the different scenarios.

Regards
  • #24,934
  • May 13, 2011 2:16am May 13, 2011 2:16am
Quoting MaMood
Dear Friends,

[font=Arial]I owe you a decision about the question I asked you yesterday. Yeah – that “public Trading” thingy. I have the strong feeling that fti does not like that idea very much. He may see the possible dangers and misleadings, that might result out of...
Hi MaMood,

I can only comment from experience with 1 or 2 sessions that we had. It is like day and night comparing forum reading with actual live trading and conversation. I believe for beginners it would be priceless. Even for "old" members it is very valuable to see how others are interpreting the information presented here.

I also believe that it is very noble of you to offer it for free and to everybody which is very much in line with what FTI is trying to achieve here (so I don't see any reasons to object).

With that said, It will be hard and frustrating to do it. As it has been hard and frustrating for FTI to be in this forum at times.

Best regards,
  • #24,935
  • Edited 8:25am May 13, 2011 4:04am | Edited 8:25am
Niels,
I have a suggestion to consider regarding the live trading thing. Instead of live, why not record yourself and post the recording here? That way, you can have the contemporanious record of what you do and think about while trading that everyone is interested in seeing, without the interruptions and distractions. There are a number of software packages that you could use, which may require everyone paying a few pips to help you cover the costs. Just a thought...

Edit: I know there are free software products available, but have never used them nor can I recommend any. One other benefit to recording without interruptions from questions is that it would more accurately represent what Niels is doing. The notion that free flowing conversation is condusive to good trading is questionable. This is just an idea for the group to consider, as I would not participate in an online session and have no skin in this game. Just trying to help!
  • #24,936
  • May 13, 2011 6:54am May 13, 2011 6:54am
Quoting GEfx
Niels,
I have a suggestion to consider regarding the live trading thing. Instead of live, why not record yourself and post the recording here? That way, you can have the contemporanious record of what you do and think about while trading that everyone is interested in seeing, without the interruptions and distractions. There are a number of software packages that you could use, which may require everyone paying a few pips to help you cover the costs. Just a thought...
asking for any kind of payment is a game changer and most likely you will get banned from FF.

recording sessions is hard work without the fun of conversation.

why not just keep it free, simple & fun? just a thought..

have a nice weekend
  • #24,937
  • May 13, 2011 8:08am May 13, 2011 8:08am
Quoting piccolo
Hi MaMood,

I can only comment from experience with 1 or 2 sessions that we had. It is like day and night comparing forum reading with actual live trading and conversation. I believe for beginners it would be priceless. Even for "old" members it is very valuable to see how others are interpreting the information presented here.

I also believe that it is very noble of you to offer it for free and to everybody which is very much in line with what FTI is trying to achieve here (so I don't see any reasons to object).

With that said, It will...
Trading being a continuous learning process, at least I believe it, requires lots of patience and 'pureness'. I say that such a trading session fortified by FTI's mentorship and executed by MaMood's skills and expertise will be a great advantage for everyone....me included.

It will an excellent scenerio if FTI could also participate in such session. I suspect MaMood is likely to feel more stress...i dont know...by such a move.

Such a session will fast forward me to 3 months....if nothing less....that is what I believe.

Regards
  • #24,938
  • May 13, 2011 10:56am May 13, 2011 10:56am
Quoting doremi
I also experiencing this Alpari's sheesh lately. This is my personal way of getting out of it.....when the requote comes out....click cancel and press the sell/buy button again.....if no response and still freeze....exit their platform and reopen again....Then open your order again.....it should be okay by then.
What I have tried as well is to have the platform open on two different computers. Recently I opened a trade on one, and could not close from the same computer because of similar issues already mentioned. I was able to close the trade from the other computer no problem. I have also seen where one freezes and the other is fine...using the same internet connection. Maybe it has to do with how orders are routed to the servers. Don't know. If someone has insight in that regard, would really appreciate the understanding of that operation.

Thanks in advance,

FX4

P.S. If I have problems with what has been working, then I'm going to become very suspicious of how these operations are done .
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #24,939
  • May 13, 2011 12:15pm May 13, 2011 12:15pm
today i suffered a loss in the markets, and although losses are part of the game.

i want to post here my trade. and own up to the fact that i did not follow AOW methodology.
i wish people could learn from my mistakes and i will post here what i think went wrong and how i could have prevented it.

i will say however that as FTI pointed out in the monk story, i will have alzheimers and forget the loss not the lesson however

i went long the Euro/USD attempting to anticipate a bullish corrective wave after a big down, the daily was signaling loss in downside momentum and i tried to OUTSMART the market.
Clearly in the fundamentals and Technicals the Euro has been losing ground
USD has been strengthening, i tried to catch both buses and got ran over.

what rules did i violate? according to AOW MO.
1 one must put oneself in a position where our army cannot be defeated
(sell ralies on a down trend)
2 one must first win then fight the battle
(know the direction of price, not guess, or predict a corrective wave)
3 one must know when to fight, when not to fight,
4 attack only when its beneficial not to simply be in battle
5 i ignored, heaven, earth, and the commander was tired and sleepy, eager for battle and glory as he had been undefeated this week
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.png Size: 102 KB


i attempted 2 rescues and decided my position is dead in the waters
with the weekend coming, i did not think it prudent to continue to expose my army.
the last line where it says the skews i used would have been the break even price, momentum did not take me there
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #24,940
  • Edited 12:44pm May 13, 2011 12:29pm | Edited 12:44pm
Quoting the redlion
today i suffered a loss in the markets, and although losses are part of the game.

i want to post here my trade. and own up to the fact that i did not follow AOW methodology.
i wish people could learn from my mistakes and i will post here what i think went wrong and how i could have prevented it.

i will say however that as FTI pointed out in the monk story, i will have alzheimers and forget the loss not the lesson however

i went long the Euro/USD attempting to anticipate a bullish corrective wave after a big down, the daily was signaling...
Hi Redlion
This is normal when you dont have some required hours of traning this. You already know where you made mistakes, so practise and practise... Good attempt. Maybe if i can... be more active. Watching diving rescue troops is what i sometimes have a prioblem too. Thats not the work of "hope". Hope is hopeless here.
- did you feel this ? "Omg, it is falling, wow... now... oversold it have to go up... i get it... scout....
- 15min after... OMG, selling... i have a loss... this is unbearable i have to rescue it... now it is so oversold... hups there rescue....
-35min..... I cant watch it... silence.... i am in a huge loss...... i cant watch and life is useless... no matter BET! RESCUE BIG... BOOOOM.... Death :-)
But i use shorter timeframes. M1 and my actions are faster...
41 traders viewing now, 1 is registered:
Gambis