Trades by huskins | Forex Factory

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Trades by huskins

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Mar 8, 2006 12:34am Mar 7, 2006 11:57pm | Edited Mar 8, 2006 12:34am
Hi

In order to disiplen my self , and also so that others can perphaps benefit from my analysis I will attempt to post my trades every day by about 1-2 AM EST with corrections No later than 4 AM EST.

Euro/USD:
Buy @ 1.1863
SL @ 1.1835
Target @ 1.1917

Reason, :
On the daily chart:
See a positive Divergence on the daily chart on MACD. Price very close to a Trnd line support level of 1.1852

On the hourly chart
We have a down trend, however the Down trend trendline resistance is at about 1.1920 at the momnt, Hence I would like to exit before a break / bounce of the trend line.

If it breaks the TD resistance will attempt to go long again, If its a bounce will attempt to go short.

On the 15 Mint chart
We have Macd Poistive divergence.

Euro/JPY

Buy @ 139.68
SL @ 139.19
Target @ 140.35

Based on :

TD break on the hour chart
+ Macd Div on 15 mint
TD break on 15 mint.

Entry is based on retest of the broken trendline, which should now act like support.
SL is based on 10 pips below the next piviot point
Target is based on Trend line break price projection .

USD/JPY
Sell @ 117.80
SL 118.21
Target 117.08

Reason:
Very near a restant point on the daily chart
Double top on the hourly and the 15 mit chart.

entry of 117.80 will be at the (3) point when the price will attempt to make a 1-2-3 top after a double top.
  • #2
  • Mar 8, 2006 6:27am Mar 8, 2006 6:27am
All 2 of my 3 trades reached thir expected targets , however I was too conservative on the entry hence w3e could not convert the right estimation into "pips"


We are currntly short on the usd/jpy , I intend to exit the trade as originally planed , i.e. get stopped out or profit out, unless i have some other "sound" reason to exit.


The euro/usd and euro/jpy trades I intend to cancel.
Will come up with new trade ideas in a bit for the NY session.
  • #3
  • Mar 8, 2006 6:53am Mar 8, 2006 6:53am
Open trades:

usd/jpy short at 117.80 current: 117.90 (-10)

New trades:
euro /usd
buy @ 1.1884 (Piviot point and potential brokrn trendline retest.)
Stop @ 1.1847 (Support on the daily chart, 1.1852 also happens to be piviotal resistace)
Target: 1.1971 (Brken trendline price projections)

Trade is based on:
+ Macd div on daily , TD break on hourly, and uptresnd continualtion on 15 mint.
  • #4
  • Mar 9, 2006 6:28am Mar 9, 2006 6:28am
Hi

I will not post any trdaes today.

BTW the usd/jpy trdae also reached its target however i got stopped out.

Leason : use the resistance level on the daily chart as a stop loss. I tried using a piviot point as a stop loss , bcoz of a tighter stop and here i am "Dead right" abt the direction
  • #5
  • Mar 9, 2006 7:28am Mar 9, 2006 7:28am
Sorry to interrupt. Just: Thank you. Great Lesson.
  • #6
  • Edited 11:45pm Mar 9, 2006 11:10pm | Edited 11:45pm
This is what I think the market is going to do :

but before that I would like to share my thoughts:

Nonfarm Employment Change is what i would call a really hyped up statistics, hyped why ? bcoz for such a strong and vast country with such a vast diversity , a few hunderd thousand jobs should have no or very little impact on the economy.

Now I feel the market just uses the Nonfarm Employment Change data to do what it wants to do in any case , its just building momentumn .

Now comming up to the market, lets take the euro /usd:

This is what i feel it will do tommrow:


I think the market is going to start moving downwards hit the daily resistance of 1.1852 and then head upwards to at least 1.2050 and settle around the 1.2000 mark.

Why ?

Bcoz since the last few days we have a +macd div on the daily chart , and the market has not once tested the support level of 1.1852 in the last week, its slowly creaping to the 1.1900 mark in ready for a big bounce of a good level.


Now my trade:
Buy Limit @ 1.1865
Stop Loss @ 1.1785
Target @ 1.2249 ( in 3-4 days) however I will limit out at 1.2050 , and keep on re entering the trade.
  • #7
  • Mar 10, 2006 5:55am Mar 10, 2006 5:55am
Quote

SWISS FRANC - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-092741
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 02/28/06 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF 125,000 SWISS FRANCS) OPEN INTEREST: 134,418
COMMITMENTS
16,309 84,571 0 107,965 24,547 124,274 109,118 10,144 25,300

CHANGES FROM 02/21/06 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 22,010)
-7,480 23,807 0 29,144 -3,690 21,664 20,117 346 1,893

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
12.1 62.9 0.0 80.3 18.3 92.5 81.2 7.5 18.8

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 64)
7 36 0 17 11 24 47


The above shows that the commercials are swiss bullish, which translates well to euro bulish.
  • #8
  • Mar 10, 2006 7:59am Mar 10, 2006 7:59am
Hi

I have gone long on the euro at 1.1890
SL at 1.1832
Target 1.2050

This despite a good usa #.

Lets see how this trade plays on
  • #9
  • Mar 10, 2006 8:35am Mar 10, 2006 8:35am
Quoting huskins
Hi

I have gone long on the euro at 1.1890
SL at 1.1832
Target 1.2050

This despite a good usa #.

Lets see how this trade plays on
In the words of the infamous Monty Python. "Run Away ! Run Away !"

Just my opinion but I can see a strong possibility of a 1.1823 {Feb 27th Low} test. That would excercise your stop.

No intention to offend and by no means would I expect you to act soley on my suggestion but in an effort to preserve your capital, you may want to have another look at it.
  • #10
  • Mar 10, 2006 9:36am Mar 10, 2006 9:36am
Anyone want to pipe in if they are seeing the same thing on the EURO/USD. I see a Head and Shoulders break at the neckline. In addition, I would agree with Bemac that this might fall TO 1826 TO 1823. The neckline breaks around 1873.

The EURO has only moved down 66 pips from its HIGH and retraced almost to the 50% and is making amove down again. 1826 puts EURO move down to 100 pip move which is its likely ATR.

Any comments or thoughts?

IMARICH1
  • #11
  • Mar 10, 2006 9:54am Mar 10, 2006 9:54am
Quoting IMARICH1
Anyone want to pipe in if they are seeing the same thing on the EURO/USD. I see a Head and Shoulders break at the neckline. In addition, ...

Any comments or thoughts?

IMARICH1
Kind of an ugly one but yes, I see it.

Huskins, This might help you. I'm not in it so I wish you luck.
GMT
[15:50 EUR/USD: No Surprise, Central Banks Rumored Buying Dips] Boston, March 10. Dealers note talk of bids from a quasi-central bank on dips to 1.1870, consistent with earlier talk of reserve diversification. Bids are eyed ahead of a support line drawn off the 1.1640 lows from bank in mid-November which comes in at 1.1845 today. Barriers are still eyed at 1.1825 and 1.1800. Offers are up at 1.1885/90 and 1.1915/20 near-term. Continued real-money USD buying interest seems to be hampering EUR/USD near-term. EUR/USD trades at 1.1878. --
  • #12
  • Mar 10, 2006 10:04am Mar 10, 2006 10:04am
My orignakl trade on euro long at 1.1864 and the one i just happned to enter bocz i dint wanna wait for the 1.1864 trade.


Trades alive:

Bought euro/usd @ 1.1865
Stop Loss @ 1.1785
Target @ 1.2050

Trade 2
Bought euro/usd @ 1.1890
SL @ 1.1832
Target 1.2050

I go by what i see on my charts , I see a very strong support at 1.1852.

If this breaks i amy even condider closing both my trades.
  • #13
  • Edited 1:39pm Mar 10, 2006 1:30pm | Edited 1:39pm
The price is about 1.1920 now I am going to book some profits now , and play the stocastics game, i.e. I beleive the price will head towards 1.2050 so i will buy over sold on the 15 mint stocatics till my journy till that price.


Pips booked in so far:


Exited both my trades at 1.1916, looking to reenter at stocastics over sold or at the piviot level 1.1897 which ever is first.

I will keep on buying and booking profits tilkl i hit my target or see another trade setup.
  • #14
  • Mar 10, 2006 1:35pm Mar 10, 2006 1:35pm
Quoting huskins
The price is about 1.1920 now I am going to book some profits now , and play the stocastics game, i.e. I beleive the price will head towards 1.2050 so i will buy over sold on the 15 mint stocatics till my journy till that price.


Pips booked in so far:

+ 30 (trying)
+ 45 (trying)
Goodonya Huskins,
Glad it worked out for you. Nice Trade.
  • #15
  • Mar 10, 2006 1:46pm Mar 10, 2006 1:46pm
Quote
Goodonya Huskins,
Glad it worked out for you. Nice Trade

It has not yet worked Only if it reavches the orignial target of 1.2050 at least will i write this trade as an sucess , however I like to book profits time and again on my journy.

This is the way I look at my trade making money. I assume my floating profit is my capital, not just my profit. I ask my self would i enter the trade at this price. if i cant answer yes, i exit my trade and am looking to reneter when the market is not over bought, or better still goes to over sold without breaching my main support level which is 1.1852 out here.

So in my journy of 185 pips, i may end up making over 250 pips , and that my friend is what i would call sucess.
  • #16
  • Edited 3:56pm Mar 10, 2006 3:49pm | Edited 3:56pm
Results so far:

USD /JPY: -41
Euro/USd Trade 1: + 26 pips
Euro/USd Trade 2: + 51 pips


Total : + 36


Open trades:
None

Open Ideas:
Buy Euro/USd till 1.2050 or till a new trade setup.
Buy euro/usd on wekness on the 15 mint stocastics, i.e. Stocastics gets into buy mode after going below 40.

Limit out On BB and RSI on the 5 mint, i.e. when the price is > the upper BB band and RSI is above 75. and then re-enter.
  • #17
  • Mar 13, 2006 8:06am Mar 13, 2006 8:06am
Hi,

I have placed the following trades:

1) Euro-USD <Buy> Reason is allredy explained <Current 1.1922>

Buy at 1.1917 or at the same time our second trde is filled.
Why: Bcoz its the tom demanks price projection for a support TL line break on the hourly charts.

SL: 1.1832
Why: Bcoz 1.1852 is very good support on the daily.


Target: 1.2050


2) GBP-USD <Sell> <current>1.7262
Why: Support TL break on the daily, Chart continuation patern, with consolidation, and good hedge for our trde above.

Sell at 1.7301 or at the same time we enter our trade 1.
Why: Piviot level.

SL: 1.7397
Why: Above the support TL which was broken

Target: 1.7062
TD's TL break projections suggest that price should hit 1.6662, I personally think thats very unlikely, hence have decided to limit exit at last years low.
  • #18
  • Mar 13, 2006 9:56am Mar 13, 2006 9:56am
Hi

I got in on my 2nd trde i.e. gbp/usd at 1.7301, hence i bought the euro usd trade at 1.1934.

Now i have 2 open trades,

1) Euro/usd <1.1932>
Bought at 1.1934 SL 1.1832 Target 1.2050

2) GBP/USd <1.7296>
Sold at 1.7301
SL 1.7397
Target 1.7062.

I my opnionin we may have to abandon one of the above trades, and let the otehr one run.

I will let you know whaen that happens , most likely when we have + div on the GBP.
  • #19
  • Mar 13, 2006 2:47pm Mar 13, 2006 2:47pm
Quoting huskins
Hi

I got in on my 2nd trde i.e. gbp/usd at 1.7301, hence i bought the euro usd trade at 1.1934.

Now i have 2 open trades,

1) Euro/usd <1.1932>
Bought at 1.1934 SL 1.1832 Target 1.2050

2) GBP/USd <1.7296>
Sold at 1.7301
SL 1.7397
Target 1.7062.

I my opnionin we may have to abandon one of the above trades, and let the otehr one run.

I will let you know whaen that happens , most likely when we have + div on the GBP.
Do you really think we'll see a 1.2050 EUR/USD today? I'm going to say that I highly doubt it. In fact, I'm waiting for it to start dropping from it's high of 1.1965ish. I'd say definitely cash out now if you already haven't... but who knows! All the best luck to you!
  • #20
  • Mar 13, 2006 5:27pm Mar 13, 2006 5:27pm
Quote

Do you really think we'll see a 1.2050 EUR/USD today? I'm going to say that I highly doubt it. In fact, I'm waiting for it to start dropping from it's high of 1.1965ish. I'd say definitely cash out now if you already haven't... but who knows! All the best luck to you!

No I dont think it would see 1.2050 today
Actaully This trade was placed when the price fell to 1.1865 i.e. I placed a buy order at 1.1865 SL at 1.1832 and target 1.2050

This order stands till the target of 1.2050 is reached or the SL of 1.1832 is reached or if i have another trade setup.

About exiting the trade yes I will exit the trade at the end of the day, and look to reenter the trade at the weekness of stochastics.


My target to exit at the intra day price of 1.1971 I guess it shd hit that.
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