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  • #341
  • May 9, 2011 6:31am May 9, 2011 6:31am
Edit: Would you say that this strategy generally works across all currency pairs? Or am I making too big an assumption?[/quote]

Hey 5.25

Gap closed 47 pips on Eur/JPY too.

I had Oanda set up for E/J, E/G, E/CHF, E/U, G/J, G/U, U/C, U/J & U/CHF.
Out of thoses pairs only E/U and E/J had gaps large enough to trade.

But 2 out of nine, with 47 pips and 58 pips would have been a great start to the week (Just paper traded these last night)

Cheers
  • #342
  • May 9, 2011 6:35am May 9, 2011 6:35am
Quoting 5.25
Closed. A nice handsome profit to start the week.

I hope this is what you meant? Even had a nice little PB at the top

Edit: Would you say that this strategy generally works across all currency pairs? Or am I making too big an assumption?
im not wiz but from my experience it will work on all gaps as the dinamics are the same..
would probably work on all instruments??

jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #343
  • May 9, 2011 6:41am May 9, 2011 6:41am
Hi Wizard,

Thank you for the great webnair. Looking forward for the next one.

Based on this statmenet- If a level was support before, it works better as resistance, does the sell at 1.3985 on EURCAD makes sense ?

In the recent history, the level acted as a resistance two times and then it brokethrough. It also acted as a support one time but support was not stayed for a long.

Now again it brokethrogh to south. If the price retraces back to that support level, does it makes sense to take a touch trade over there ?
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  • #344
  • May 9, 2011 6:45am May 9, 2011 6:45am
As far as I can see it works across all currency pairs.

However, I usually only trade a gap in the EUR/USD as this is the pair that I have stats on and therefore have black and white evidence of its edge and the best way to play it.

It doesn't appear, in my opinion, to work as well on equities and commodities - at least not in the way I play it in FX which is immediate entry on the Sunday open with a target price of the Friday close.
  • #345
  • May 9, 2011 7:11am May 9, 2011 7:11am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
im not wiz but from my experience it will work on all gaps as the dinamics are the same..
would probably work on all instruments??

jon
I've seen your charts Jon, I think your a bit of a wiz

I'm firmly sticking to FX on this one. It's a whole new trading methodology for me.
  • #346
  • May 9, 2011 8:09am May 9, 2011 8:09am
I was watching carefully what GBPUSD was doing at this level..and this I think is a good example of what Wiz was talking about in the seminar...

Maybe this bounce is short-lived but there is still a bounce...

Am I right Wiz?
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Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
  • #347
  • May 9, 2011 8:15am May 9, 2011 8:15am
Quoting 5.25
I've seen your charts Jon, I think your a bit of a wiz

I'm firmly sticking to FX on this one. It's a whole new trading methodology for me.

lol...in time buddy, in time...

cheers

jon

p.s. we got that test of 1.02 in the end eh!? missed the trade though :/ printed a 4h IB....
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #348
  • Edited 10:18am May 9, 2011 10:05am | Edited 10:18am
Quoting Chris_B
I see Wiz...I've been just a bit unlucky with this gap...

My feed opens 1 hour later...so my gap was a little different...and my stop was 80 pips....I've been stopped out by just 1.6 pips

It happens....it was a little 0.01 live trade...

Maybe I have to take in consideration 22:00 Uk time datas to place my stop...but in this case it was more than 2:1
My stats derive from FxPro's feed which opens at 22:00 BST and go back to October 2009.

My open price was 1.4361 and the Friday close was 1.4318 which makes the gap size to be 43.

43 X 2 = 86.

So 1.4361 + 86 = 1.4447. Then I add the spread on top of that. So my actual stop was at 1.4449.

The current strike rates for;

- A stop of 0.5 the gap = 48.14%

- A stop of 1 X the gap = 64.81%

- A stop of 2 X the gap = 85.18%

But it's not as simple as it looks because you need to factor in your spreads. So, in the above example, although 85.18% of the time, the market is not going to go 2 X the size of the gap against you, you have to factor in your spread on both your target and your stop.

So when you re-calculate with a spread of 2 (which is what I have) a strike rate of 85.15% at a 0.5 R, in actuality becomes an R of 0.44.

This is why although the stats are based on any gap OVER 10 pips, I prefer gaps over 20 because the smaller the gap, the more the spread reduces your R.

Your expectancy with this is currently 0.23.

I hope this all makes sense.
  • #349
  • May 9, 2011 12:23pm May 9, 2011 12:23pm
Tom just worndering how did you come out with +59 pips?
Don't you set a buy limit at the Friday price or did you close manually lower down?
  • #350
  • May 9, 2011 1:27pm May 9, 2011 1:27pm
Quoting ljr
Tom just worndering how did you come out with +59 pips?
Don't you set a buy limit at the Friday price or did you close manually lower down?

Well spotted LJ.

I got lucky on the entry.

My broker is supposed to open at 10pm (the EUR/USD was trading 1.4361 at the time) but it opened about a minute or two past and then it briefly went "call to trade only". The first price I could get through the platform was 1.4379 which was my fill price.

I put my limit in at 1.4320 (Friday close + spread)

Not too many stories about people actually benefiting from broker stunts like that so enjoy the rarity :-)
  • #351
  • Edited May 10, 2011 3:37am May 9, 2011 2:05pm | Edited May 10, 2011 3:37am
I do mainly trade FX but here are a couple of setups in stocks that I will be watching tomorrow.

First up is Intel. Price is making the "rounded retest" of previous resistance with fib confluence and depending on when it hits, may be reaching its ATR too.

The other is Wal Mart. There is a very clear bull flag on the D1 that is forming right into resistance. This is a bullish sign and I will be looking for a break and retest. (remember: the last time we saw this pattern was Cable, posted earlier in this thread)

In terms of FX, EUR/CHF is heading down towards the huge support at 1.2432. As discussed in the webinar, I had a heads up regarding some huge stop orders down there and it seems clear that price was going to gravitate towards this area. One to watch.

Keep it safe guys :-)
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  • #352
  • May 9, 2011 9:14pm May 9, 2011 9:14pm
Quoting the_wizard
In terms of FX, EUR/CHF is heading down towards the huge support at 1.2432. As discussed in the webinar, I had a heads up regarding some huge stop orders down there and it seems clear that price was going to gravitate towards this area. One to watch.

Keep it safe guys :-)
Hi Tom,
Re: "huge stop orders". Would this mean stop sell orders so that you'd expect when price hits the level it powers on through with all the selling? Or does it imply there are many limit buys near the support area with associated stop loss sells below. Not wanting this for a trade recommendation, but trying to get my head around order dynamics etc.
Thanks,
John
  • #353
  • May 9, 2011 11:16pm May 9, 2011 11:16pm
Possible arachnid on Usd/Cad.
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  • #354
  • May 10, 2011 3:39am May 10, 2011 3:39am
Quoting 4FXsake
Possible arachnid on Usd/Cad.
I noticed that one too :-)

USD/CAD is inversely correlated to the S&P so you can always check that for confirmation.

The S&P posted a D1 IB at an excellent level and it has triggered long this morning, hence the weakness in the USD/CAD...
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  • #355
  • May 10, 2011 3:43am May 10, 2011 3:43am
Following on from that post above you can see the inverse setup in the USD/CAD with the IB, this time at resistance.
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  • #356
  • May 10, 2011 3:49am May 10, 2011 3:49am
Quoting the_wizard
I noticed that one too :-)

USD/CAD is inversely correlated to the S&P so you can always check that for confirmation.
Thanks Wiz - well reminded!
  • #357
  • May 10, 2011 3:50am May 10, 2011 3:50am
Morning Guys.

I am looking at this move on the FTSE. Would this be seen as a 'spider' - price accelerated now into and then through 6000 level - now wait for the rounded re-test ?

Thanks
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  • #358
  • May 10, 2011 4:03am May 10, 2011 4:03am
Wiz, Just to clarify if you could please?

In say this example, would one play the long or wait for a break to the downside and play the retest? Would you only go long with supporting PA?

Thanks in anticipation!

(sorry if being dense!)
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  • #359
  • May 10, 2011 4:35am May 10, 2011 4:35am
Quoting Malarky
Morning Guys.

I am looking at this move on the FTSE. Would this be seen as a 'spider' - price accelerated now into and then through 6000 level - now wait for the rounded re-test ?

Thanks
I don't think that's a big enough level. Don't be fooled just because it's a BRN.

Watch 6079 though.
  • #360
  • May 10, 2011 4:39am May 10, 2011 4:39am
Quoting 4FXsake
Wiz, Just to clarify if you could please?

In say this example, would one play the long or wait for a break to the downside and play the retest? Would you only go long with supporting PA?

Thanks in anticipation!

(sorry if being dense!)
The "rounded retest" only comes into play for me after a level is broken. This level has never been broken.

I am not keen on this trade because I don't like trading levels that have been tested multiple times in a relatively short space of time AND also in this example you are buying a level that has only been support.

As I said in the webinar, I would prefer to buy resistance and there is none down here.

It is an option to wait for any break lower and play the retest but I would be wary of the extent of the decline and that would usually make me want the retest on the D1 rather than the H1.

One way you could play this is to try and fade a breakout e.g. go long if it breaks the swing lows but you need to watch the market very carefully when you do this.

If in doubt, wait. The market will almost always tip its hand.
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