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The Recent Only Real Deal in My Head

  • #41
  • May 10, 2011 3:34am May 10, 2011 3:34am
Quoting cgrey
In a nutshell, by the original rules posted, this system is a loser over the past 4+ years. Tradestation summary report and equity graph are attached.

Since it was quite clearly pointed out earlier that this is "a once a week trade method ..... NOT HOURLY...... ", I guess I will leave my comments at that. For those that aren't afraid to bend the rules sometimes, I'd encourage you to experiment with it... it is quite a performer on H1 when traded in the direction of the trend and some sensible money management is applied.
Would you do backtest based on my exit rule and applied OCO just on this year (2011) performance only?
So until now we have 18 week trade on GU since 3 January 2011.....
I would recommend 1:200 Leverage and starting capital $10,000 with one standard lot for every trade.....

Thank you so much for comparison data....
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #42
  • May 10, 2011 3:49am May 10, 2011 3:49am
GU
Week 18 (02-06 Mai 2011)
Risk : 125 pips risk
Trade : Sell at 1.6618
Trade Result : Exit at week 19 OP at 1.6357 (261 pips profit)
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #43
  • May 10, 2011 4:04am May 10, 2011 4:04am
Hi Guys

I have 2 boys that have been trading since the beginning of 2010.

The younger boy turned 10 YEARS OLD in JULY 2010. He has been trading Joel Rensink's ONE NIGHT STAND since then. Religiously every friday placing the trades and walking away cause it's boring.

The older boy turned 13 YEARS OLD last OCTOBER 2010. He has been trading Joel Rensink's FIRST STRIKE PLUS since then. Religiously every monday placing the trades and walking away cause he'd rather skateboard.

Why these systems? Well, they learn the platform, and more importantly that most trading is just plain clerical work, but most importantly that you just need to place the trades and not give a toss. Participation makes money.

Is this rocket science? No.

Is it PROFITABLE? YES! AS IS!

Finally their trading is with REAL MONEY, and it's theirs. I'm not a fan of demoing. Their micro account started with $200 of their own cash.

What do I think happened to Joel, why doesn't he blog or post? He just got bored.

Hermit
  • #44
  • May 10, 2011 6:16am May 10, 2011 6:16am
Quoting hermit
Hi Guys

I have 2 boys that have been trading since the beginning of 2010.

The younger boy turned 10 YEARS OLD in JULY 2010. He has been trading Joel Rensink's ONE NIGHT STAND since then. Religiously every friday placing the trades and walking away cause it's boring.

The older boy turned 13 YEARS OLD last OCTOBER 2010. He has been trading Joel Rensink's FIRST STRIKE PLUS since then. Religiously every monday placing the trades and walking away cause he'd rather skateboard.

Why these systems? Well, they learn the platform, and more importantly...

OneNightStand is profitable and robust. I am trading it.
  • #45
  • May 10, 2011 6:26am May 10, 2011 6:26am
Quoting cgrey
In a nutshell, by the original rules posted, this system is a loser over the past 4+ years. Tradestation summary report and equity graph are attached.

Since it was quite clearly pointed out earlier that this is "a once a week trade method ..... NOT HOURLY...... ", I guess I will leave my comments at that. For those that aren't afraid to bend the rules sometimes, I'd encourage you to experiment with it... it is quite a performer on H1 when traded in the direction of the trend and some sensible money management is applied.
Thanks for sharing cgrey.
I am posting a comparison testing GBPUSD in the same period with 15 minutes bar from Dukascopy.
The first set of results are for FirstStrike, the second set for FirstStrike Plus. I am using 1 lot with no money management and BEFORE accounting for commissions and spreads. I am using GMT 6 as open during summer time and GMT 7 as open during non DST.

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  • #46
  • May 10, 2011 6:28am May 10, 2011 6:28am
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  • #47
  • May 10, 2011 8:20am May 10, 2011 8:20am
Quoting hermit
Hi Guys

I have 2 boys that have been trading since the beginning of 2010.

The younger boy turned 10 YEARS OLD in JULY 2010. He has been trading Joel Rensink's ONE NIGHT STAND since then. Religiously every friday placing the trades and walking away cause it's boring.

The older boy turned 13 YEARS OLD last OCTOBER 2010. He has been trading Joel Rensink's FIRST STRIKE PLUS since then. Religiously every monday placing the trades and walking away cause he'd rather skateboard.

Why these systems? Well, they learn the platform, and more...


is this a joke ? you must be a millionnaire by now then right ?

are you doubting the tests done by seasoned traders like roundrock, tradestar1 .. ?

do you have a life ?
  • #48
  • May 10, 2011 9:33am May 10, 2011 9:33am
Quoting cgrey
In a nutshell, by the original rules posted, this system is a loser over the past 4+ years. Tradestation summary report and equity graph are attached.

Since it was quite clearly pointed out earlier that this is "a once a week trade method ..... NOT HOURLY...... ", I guess I will leave my comments at that. For those that aren't afraid to bend the rules sometimes, I'd encourage you to experiment with it... it is quite a performer on H1 when traded in the direction of the trend and some sensible money management is applied.
hi cgrey, good to see you here and appreciate your testing

number of winning trades are much more than losing trades. but the avg lose is more than profit.

i would try to test the EA with 2 changes

1. instead of fixed lot, i would go for fixed risk percentage every trade. because the stoploss pips change every week.

2. taking trades only in the direction of trend. i will use 50 sma on D1.

also the stoploss is 40% of the range, may be its high
  • #49
  • May 10, 2011 12:38pm May 10, 2011 12:38pm
The indicator for placing the estimated BS and SS lines on the chart seem to be using 00:00 GMT rather then the opening price of 00:00 CST.

thx
  • #50
  • May 10, 2011 7:33pm May 10, 2011 7:33pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
Would you do backtest based on my exit rule and applied OCO just on this year (2011) performance only?
So until now we have 18 week trade on GU since 3 January 2011.....
I would recommend 1:200 Leverage and starting capital $10,000 with one standard lot for every trade.....

Thank you so much for comparison data....

Slightly better results for just this year with your modified rules: OCO orders and close at the end of the week whether in profit or not. But still a loser for me on Tradestation. This is trading one standard lot per order. My guess as to why my results are so much different than yours could be the difference between your broker's weekly opening time and Tradestation's. I threw this strategy together off of Tradestation's weekly candles, and NOT 00:00GMT Monday as your outlined in the first post. To be honest, it would be more work than I'd want to do (since I'm personally not interested in this as a weekly strategy) to write up the strategy to use those specific times instead of the default weekly candles.

I've posted the trade list, detail and actual charts below so you can verify I've got your rules correct.

Whatever the case, as I said earlier - I, personally, am grateful to you for posting this system. Whether or not it is designed to, it works very well for me on the H1 timeframe with some tweaks, and it showed me exactly what I'd been missing for the past few weeks in my own experiments on H1. I've backtested my "version" for several years, and have had consistently positive results. I've already integrated this in to my live trading - watching 8 different pairs, with 5 winners and no losers today.

Best of luck going forward.
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  • #51
  • May 11, 2011 5:04am May 11, 2011 5:04am
Quoting cgrey
Slightly better results for just this year with your modified rules: OCO orders and close at the end of the week whether in profit or not. But still a loser for me on Tradestation. This is trading one standard lot per order. My guess as to why my results are so much different than yours could be the difference between your broker's weekly opening time and Tradestation's. I threw this strategy together off of Tradestation's weekly candles, and NOT 00:00GMT Monday as your outlined in the first post. To be honest, it would be more work than I'd want...
Hello cgrey,
Would you mind sharing the modification you made on H1 using this system? I am too impatient and do not think I can take huge drawdown on weekly trades.
Road to financial freedom
  • #52
  • May 11, 2011 5:39am May 11, 2011 5:39am
Quoting fx26
Hello cgrey,
Would you mind sharing the modification you made on H1 using this system? I am too impatient and do not think I can take huge drawdown on weekly trades.
So as to not derail this thread from how the system was originally presented, I won't go in to any more detail that I already have: Trade only with the trend, don't trade directly in to major support or resistance, and apply some sensible money management. That, alone, should be enough for anyone to make it successful on H1. I'll leave it to you to work out the details of those three concepts.

Now, to keep the discussion related to the original system that was presented, I will not reply further in this thread regarding anything that I've done with this concept. To anyone else - experiment - it's good for you
  • #53
  • May 11, 2011 6:03am May 11, 2011 6:03am
My backtest results for firststrike plus for this year with 50k starting equity, 1% fixed fractional position size, 2 pips per round turn spread/commissions
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  • #54
  • May 11, 2011 8:28am May 11, 2011 8:28am
Quoting cgrey
So as to not derail this thread from how the system was originally presented, I won't go in to any more detail that I already have: Trade only with the trend, don't trade directly in to major support or resistance, and apply some sensible money management. That, alone, should be enough for anyone to make it successful on H1. I'll leave it to you to work out the details of those three concepts.

Now, to keep the discussion related to the original system that was presented, I will not reply further in this thread regarding anything that I've done...
Hello cgrey,
I understand your point and will not pursue further. Thanks.
Road to financial freedom
  • #55
  • May 11, 2011 9:48am May 11, 2011 9:48am
Quoting RoelsMajor
I don't know your broker but this is data taken from FBS Holding Inc based on Reyna Indicator :
GU
Open Price This Week : 1.6357
Buy Stop : 1.6742
Sell Stop : 1.6242
Risk : 153 pips

This is OCO method.....once order trigger than another one must be closed....so just one trade per pair a week

Your data is very different from my data.....
You are right that the data of my broker is different but nevertheless your buy stop at 1,6742 appears to be wrong (too much) or am I mistaken? According to my figures I am long now .....
  • #56
  • May 11, 2011 1:51pm May 11, 2011 1:51pm
Quoting cgrey
My guess as to why my results are so much different than yours could be the difference between your broker's weekly opening time and Trade station's.
This is one of the things that make FX a challenge, that is the lack of uniformity in the different brokers charts.

Like the systems I use are based on Oanda charts and the particular chart settings I have, If I were to change brokers or my chart settings my results would be a bit different.
  • #57
  • May 11, 2011 3:50pm May 11, 2011 3:50pm
Quoting tradestar1
This is one of the things that make FX a challenge, that is the lack of uniformity in the different brokers charts.

Like the systems I use are based on Oanda charts and the particular chart settings I have, If I were to change brokers or my chart settings my results would be a bit different.
Couldn't agree more... Broker differences have indirectly led to more than one disagreement here at FF about the validity of a system. One of the reasons I'm much more of a fundamental trader than an "indicator" trader. If an economic event happens that is going to affect price, it will affect all brokers/feeds, and there is some consistency. If you're waiting for an MA cross or stoch to go overbought, where your data comes from can definitely have an impact. But don't get me started on indicators ...
  • #58
  • May 11, 2011 10:08pm May 11, 2011 10:08pm
Quoting whatfx
is this a joke ? you must be a millionnaire by now then right ?

are you doubting the tests done by seasoned traders like roundrock, tradestar1 .. ?

do you have a life ?
Hi whatfx

Yes. No. Lifestyle.

I see by the tone and number of your posts that you are still searching to find a method that fits you personally. Unfortunately I too had a similar experience, but eventuallly you will look back and see the path persistence travels.

A suggestion if I may. You will find a lot of "systems" here are poisoned chalices. Personally if I had to choose one, and one only, method that I could only EVER use, then DIBS it is.

My daughter who is now 23 trades a variant because that fits her, and she is extremely comfortable with it. Mind you she has been trading the exact same thing(s) with the exact same methodology since she was 14.

My point? Try this...
1. DIBS original methodology, and I stress original
2. eurusd/usdjpy/gbpusd/usdchf because that is about 85% major daily volume
3. micro account so that you're trading with real money
4. 1% risk capital/trade entry:stop. this is NOT pip based
5. do this for a year. don't be tempted to tweak it. learn it. become it.
6. do not look at any forum/blog/newspaper/radio/internet/tv
7. at the end of that year you will be a trader
8. review your journey.

What does this do?
1. learn platform practicalities
2. systemises the methodology in your mind. if we were talking sport we would be talking muscle memory
3. appreciate "risk of ruin"
4. your spirit will grow with your account
5. you will have FORWARD TESTED
6. and I could go on

These ideas are what I use one night stand and first strike plus to teach the kids.

My appologies to RoelsMajor for this non thread post, if it is not in the spirit then delete it and bar me. Or replace DIBS with FIRST STRIKE PLUS.

Hermit
  • #59
  • May 12, 2011 2:17am May 12, 2011 2:17am
Quoting hermit
Hi whatfx

Yes. No. Lifestyle.

I see by the tone and number of your posts that you are still searching to find a method that fits you personally. Unfortunately I too had a similar experience, but eventuallly you will look back and see the path persistence travels.

A suggestion if I may. You will find a lot of "systems" here are poisoned chalices. Personally if I had to choose one, and one only, method that I could only EVER use, then DIBS it is.

My daughter who is now 23 trades a variant because that fits her, and she is extremely comfortable...

I agree with you about sticking to a system, adapting it by yourself and trading LIVE.

I have been trading for a couple of years, not full time, but still a lot of hours in front of the screen, looking at charts and studying fundamentals and technicals....and systems.

I have tested and traded many systems, but tests will never give the accuracy that trading live does.

Backtests using EA's will give a hint.

Backtests using pen and paper will give a possibility.

Forward testing using paper or demo will show probability.

Live testing will give the truth.

And live testing is not a week or a month, that is just coincidence.
Real live testing is for many months, for years.

That will give the best idea of what the result will be in the end.

At least that is my experience.
  • #60
  • Edited 8:10am May 12, 2011 7:59am | Edited 8:10am
This is from Joe Ross, and very pertinent to your trip to becoming a successful trader.

You only need to master one setup to be a consistently profitable trader.

Screen Time will allow you to master one setup.

After you have mastered one setup "OWN IT" you can add another setup.

This can be an ongoing process developing your own style.

The best setup to begin with is the one that you see and understand easiest. If you are forcing yourself to learn a setup because you believe another person is successful using it you may be taking the longer route to profitability.
We are all different . Our brains and personalities will gravitate to different setups. This is also true of exit techniques.
Most traders I hear from lengthen their road to profitability by trying to apply too many concepts before owning the first one.
They have studied a myriad of techniques but have yet to master any. This allows them to talk about trading but unable to consistently trade profitably.
The first decision to make is; do you desire to be a counter trend trader? or a with the trend trader? Eventually, you can be both.
At the beginning, or a new beginning perhaps, you will do best choosing to
Master setup and follow the trend.

So, weather you are trading First-srike, One-night Stand, Dids, or whatever. Learn a system that fits YOU. Quite chasing after the pie in the sky and treat trading as a business...... Oh and by the way according to the SBA, 50% of small businesses fail during first year, the stats for traders surviving the first year are even less..... somewhere between 70 and 90 % failure.
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