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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #2,481
  • May 6, 2011 1:44am May 6, 2011 1:44am
Quoting pilatus
Why do you think that price will go back to 4822 or near it?? Ok today is friday but I do not see a lot of buyers if you look that price stayed down there 1,455. What does that mean? If you ask me it means: no one willing to buy. And one thing else, drop of aproximately 400 pips never hapen without reason. Yestrday Trichet speach made it, but if you ask me again, that could be rather change in trend than just reaction on speech of Trichet.
Just my thoughts.......
Hi pilatus, appreciate ur input.

For me I always go for top down approach from monthly chart To 30 min chart, I'm more focus on value especially monthly chart, for my trading logic is quite simple, I want to buy at a discount price, to me this drop is a whole sale price advertising for buyer, risk and reward ratio is good, if the trend is going to Change I would expect a larger bracket to form, but this is just my frame work of looking at the market, actually i thank unca JC Trichet for this move. Let see next week what is the outcome p.s I might be totally wrong.
  • #2,482
  • May 6, 2011 5:24am May 6, 2011 5:24am
i think even after a good night sleep i'm still dazed and confused with EU at the moment. I think it will drop some more, given that its broken yesterday's low and is one-timeframing down. Yet, its still one-timeframing up on the weekly profile.

Today's profile however seems to be lacking a selling top and there is an anomaly near 4550, so with NFP in a few minutes I would not discount a push up to 4600 still before coming back down.

With my tail between my legs at the moment, i'll sit this one out, just in case this is pure market manipulation to make room for continuation up...
Change is the only constant
  • #2,483
  • May 6, 2011 5:29am May 6, 2011 5:29am
Hey guys just my worthless two cents. Don't concern yourself to much with yesterdays profile. Its going to be a while before 1.4825 POC gets tested. Marketprofile does not drive a market that is in fast market status. Yesterday was a game changer with commodities. The landscape has shifted bulls are no longer on the bid on every dip. Commodities are driving the market as of now. Equities are holding up well. They will be the next catalyst for a big figure move lower.
  • #2,484
  • May 6, 2011 6:27am May 6, 2011 6:27am
Quoting tgwhbb
i think even after a good night sleep i'm still dazed and confused with EU at the moment....
well, not very disciplined i guess, as I was suposed to sit on my hands, but took a long as price moved into value in 'a' period. exited at VAH. small profit, but every little bit counts
Attached Image
Change is the only constant
  • #2,485
  • May 6, 2011 6:43am May 6, 2011 6:43am
Quoting tgwhbb
well, not very disciplined i guess, as I was suposed to sit on my hands, but took a long as price moved into value in 'a' period. exited at VAH. small profit, but every little bit counts
Took similar trade, closed one still holding one. may look to reenter.
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,486
  • May 6, 2011 7:09am May 6, 2011 7:09am
Quoting mzvega
Took similar trade, closed one still holding one. may look to reenter.
i'm already short, a bit late on the trigger, so SL set to BE+1 already, but target is NY DIBL @ 4378

I think my broker is playing games....MT4 taking for ever to confirm orders and modifications today...
Change is the only constant
  • #2,487
  • May 6, 2011 7:11am May 6, 2011 7:11am
Looks like it is testing 1.4479 area.
Quoting tgwhbb
i'm already short, a bit late on the trigger, so SL set to BE+1 already, but target is NY DIBL @ 4378

I think my broker is playing games....MT4 taking for ever to confirm orders and modifications today...
  • #2,488
  • May 6, 2011 7:47am May 6, 2011 7:47am
Quoting skyscraper
Looks like it is testing 1.4479 area.
indeed, out of the short, late of course, but still positive at least...

back into value, and the profile looks like value is still migrating lower from asia, london and now NY sessions. I'm still looking for shorts but from the top of value
Change is the only constant
  • #2,489
  • May 6, 2011 8:45am May 6, 2011 8:45am
Quoting skyscraper
Looks like it is testing 1.4479 area.
Did your limit order fill? Looks like it did. That was a very good observation yesterday!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,490
  • May 6, 2011 8:56am May 6, 2011 8:56am
Quoting tgwhbb
indeed, out of the short, late of course, but still positive at least...

back into value, and the profile looks like value is still migrating lower from asia, london and now NY sessions. I'm still looking for shorts but from the top of value
once again, should have trusted my first instinct based on the profiles and not the PA...back in short, target still NY DIBL.
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Change is the only constant
  • #2,491
  • May 6, 2011 9:06am May 6, 2011 9:06am
Quoting tgwhbb
once again, should have trusted my first instinct based on the profiles and not the PA...back in short, target still NY DIBL.
Im stubbornly still holding. It was the buying tails in the current photo (no longer valid). Im going to hold alittle longer. As long as I dont see a bell curve develop a small distribution Ill continue to hold. But Ill scratch if we hold a break below ibl.
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,492
  • May 6, 2011 9:27am May 6, 2011 9:27am
Quoting mzvega
Im stubbornly still holding. It was the buying tails in the current photo (no longer valid). Im going to hold alittle longer. As long as I dont see a bell curve develop a small distribution Ill continue to hold. But Ill scratch if we hold a break below ibl.
IMO yesterday's buying tail was no longer valid once the low was broken, indicating one-timeframing down to continue.
Change is the only constant
  • #2,493
  • May 6, 2011 10:09am May 6, 2011 10:09am
Quoting tgwhbb
once again, should have trusted my first instinct based on the profiles and not the PA...back in short, target still NY DIBL.
target hit for +136. warms my heart and good way to end a tough week...
Change is the only constant
  • #2,494
  • Edited 10:29am May 6, 2011 10:09am | Edited 10:29am
Quoting tgwhbb
IMO yesterday's buying tail was no longer valid once the low was broken, indicating one-timeframing down to continue.
Yea, Im done for the the day. I really havent been doing my homework. Ive been spending alot of time posting and not doing "my job". I havent been attending to my spread sheets. Im suposed to have my analysis done before I enter the market. If I had been doing my homework, I could look at a glance at my spreadsheets, and know whats happening without having to reanalyze on the fly while im trading. When im recording data daily I can easily (if ive done my homework) ask the data other important questions that could give me further insight. A couple of years ago, I tried to participate in a chat room, unfortunatly, my trading suffered. I stopped. As I see it starting to happen again. I need to find a healthly balance if I continue to participate. There is a wealth of info in analyzing "Market Generated Info." But doing the homework is hard. Faithfully, recording and organizing data is a chore. But with it you can ask more important questions like what is the avg poc over x amount of days,weeks, the va & IB vol, same thing. There are limitless questions you can ask, to asist in your trading if the homework has already been done. Looking for patterns or anomalies in the data can be of great value. But unless Im a computer, I cant do dit on the fly. Analyzing "Market Generated Info" tells you so much more than if were above or below value. But to make a long story short I feel imo I have dropped the ball and my trading has suffered. I have neglected to do my homework and it shows in my trading. Trading is easy, its the homework that is hard
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,495
  • May 6, 2011 10:27am May 6, 2011 10:27am
I am out when it hit yesterday VAL took tp. Then took short at the break of 1.4480.. and now +100
Quoting mzvega
Did your limit order fill? Looks like it did. That was a very good observation yesterday!
  • #2,496
  • May 6, 2011 10:31am May 6, 2011 10:31am
Quoting mzvega
Trading is easy, its the homework is hard
Could not agree more!

and it's true, the forums are a double edged sword...a wealth of knowledge, but spend too much time here and it confuses me and frustrates me as well.

Hopefully Claudia you will find the balance, your posts are educational and much appreciated by me, and I assume other readers of this thread.
Change is the only constant
  • #2,497
  • May 6, 2011 10:49am May 6, 2011 10:49am
Quoting tgwhbb
Could not agree more!

and it's true, the forums are a double edged sword...a wealth of knowledge, but spend too much time here and it confuses me and frustrates me as well.

Hopefully Claudia you will find the balance, your posts are educational and much appreciated by me, and I assume other readers of this thread.
I appreciate the kind words There is a a Great group of people here, I will try hard to keep a balance.

Your indicator data , I believe that if I had been recording that data daily on a spreadsheet, it may have given some insight also. By tracking that info on a spreadsheet you can go back looking for patterns of simular activity. With enough data you might be able to assist your trading decisions by reconizing certain patterns in the data.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,498
  • May 6, 2011 11:56am May 6, 2011 11:56am
Quoting skyscraper
I am out when it hit yesterday VAL took tp. Then took short at the break of 1.4480.. and now +100
Jolly good ...I added 1 position like yours on the break at 4455 instead in addition to my first short on the break of LVN 4750 yesterday...Close it all off on target of prior weekly VAL @4320 which coincide my 78.6% retracement...neat...

Never fade a trend day....
  • #2,499
  • May 9, 2011 12:39am May 9, 2011 12:39am
I take long position because i look IB on tokyo open is narrow, auction is testing yesterday close and buyer other time frame response to higher price, i think EU will short covering for a while, please any correction on my analysis thank you .
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  • #2,500
  • May 9, 2011 2:00am May 9, 2011 2:00am
Quoting bila
I take long position because i look IB on tokyo open is narrow, auction is testing yesterday close and buyer other time frame response to higher price, i think EU will short covering for a while, please any correction on my analysis thank you .

Pretty much spot on...

Uusually u wanna see the morning session reaction since after an elongated session with P formation last Friday NY, u have some old business liquidating & u wana get a sense of BALANCE during the morning session today b4 taking any position as as to built a reference...

..& here we have it a "open test drive" from London open...u can bet on a long to target @4500 or slightly above it....for now. Do grab some at 4450 too...if u are already long & u can split..

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