Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
Auction Market Theory and Market Profile
- #2,462
- May 5, 2011 6:58pm May 5, 2011 6:58pm
- | Joined May 2010 | Status: Day by Day | 1,004 Posts
Change is the only constant
- #2,463
- May 5, 2011 7:33pm May 5, 2011 7:33pm
- | Joined May 2010 | Status: Day by Day | 1,004 Posts
Change is the only constant
- #2,464
- May 5, 2011 7:39pm May 5, 2011 7:39pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,879 Posts
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
- #2,466
- May 5, 2011 7:45pm May 5, 2011 7:45pm
- | Joined May 2010 | Status: Day by Day | 1,004 Posts
Ill bail if we cant say above asia open.
probably wrong time to exit as per my usual
, but i need a break 
Change is the only constant
- #2,467
- May 5, 2011 7:53pm May 5, 2011 7:53pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,879 Posts
Hi guys
Interesting to read all the sharing about the big drop yesterday.
It looks like long liquidation move, my view is price drop to advertise for buyer. But due to tonight is NFP, I think price might hand around here for a while, @4560, build value for a b profile, if we have a balance friday.
Monday I will anticipate for an up swing, this might be a drop to gather more buyer to break higher.@4925
This is the best time to sharpen out trading logic skill. which is hardest to master.
This week I only have 1 trade +30 pips. Was in the...
. The best you can do is analize the profiles. I can sit for hours, looking at profile charts analizing all the "what if's". Makes you better prepared for possible senarios.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
- #2,468
- May 5, 2011 8:14pm May 5, 2011 8:14pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,879 Posts
attached is why i closed. EU trying to move into mini HNV, highest volume bar of asia at the top closing off the high with next bar down.
probably wrong time to exit as per my usual
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
- #2,469
- Edited 8:45pm May 5, 2011 8:29pm | Edited 8:45pm
- | Joined May 2010 | Status: Day by Day | 1,004 Posts
Another way to possibly look at it is, the bottom of a smaller "Bell Curve" (balanced distribution). But I wouldnt trust my judgement after today
of course, its market profile basics... price goes from distribution A to distribution B, then back up to test A, and if a distribution build in between A and B then the move should result in going up through A. See chart.
It's amazing how i forget these things when in a trade
Change is the only constant
- #2,470
- May 5, 2011 8:51pm May 5, 2011 8:51pm
But I wouldnt trust my judgement after today
1) This is a genuine reversal warming up. FXCM's Speculative Sentiment Indicator (a contrarian indicator that is pretty dang reliable) just turned net long for the first time since January. If it pushes above 2.0 (net long) I may consider ourselves in for a decent drop.
2) Long liquidation. Profits were taken and the buyer is expecting crappy jobs numbers and may look to capitalize heavily at lower prices as crappy jobs numbers just gives more reason to accumulate Euro positions and we could push to a new high.
Prices are confined to a nice uptrend channel I drew months ago so I'm, watching 1.4515. A probe below could draw out initiative sellers so we should be cautious!
- #2,471
- May 5, 2011 10:16pm May 5, 2011 10:16pm
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: I'm the greatest, man | 2,516 Posts
- #2,472
- May 5, 2011 10:17pm May 5, 2011 10:17pm
- | Joined May 2010 | Status: Day by Day | 1,004 Posts
it appears your judgement is better than mine...
of course, its market profile basics... price goes from distribution A to distribution B, then back up to test A, and if a distribution build in between A and B then the move should result in going up through A. See chart.
It's amazing how i forget these things when in a trade
Change is the only constant
- #2,473
- May 5, 2011 10:44pm May 5, 2011 10:44pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,879 Posts
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
Just trying to figure the structures for the few weeks on weekly profiles & also questioning on the validity of anomalies.
In JD's material, he mentioned anomalies & repairs. I was wondering after what have happen yesterday....the structure might suggest some sort sort of reparation all the way down to 4220 area..
Does the anomalies I indicated show lack of symmetry?
In JD's material, he mentioned anomalies & repairs. I was wondering after what have happen yesterday....the structure might suggest some sort sort of reparation all the way down to 4220 area..
Does the anomalies I indicated show lack of symmetry?
- #2,475
- May 5, 2011 11:35pm May 5, 2011 11:35pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,879 Posts
Just trying to figure the structures for the few weeks on weekly profiles & also questioning on the validity of anomalies.
In JD's material, he mentioned anomalies & repairs. I was wondering after what have happen yesterday....the structure might suggest some sort sort of reparation all the way down to 4220 area..
Does the anomalies I indicated show lack of symmetry?
Attachment
. Could you possibly re phrase? I got "brain lock"
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
Im sorry, Ive been trading since ny session, I must be tierd because I cant understand a word you said
Anyway..just to rephrase this hypothetical analysis on structures & anomalies..
Revise chart showing the the lack of symmetry (anomalies) OR lack of development of the lower distribution of of profile "C" which is suppose to "fill in" the LUA of profile A & B.
Therefore..with yesterday 400 pips sell offs & in-view of any downwards continuation (taking into account of the need to balance at current level prior to further initiatives selling ). ANY further correction would have suggest that reparation of the anomalies...
So the question is..do u consider the lower distribution of profile C as indicated, an anomaly? lack of development & symmetry that may eventually be repaired, eventually giving balance in this area ...? I just got a feeling that the lack of Balance here around the anomaly area did not sustain this rally...just my brain asking my heart...
- #2,477
- Edited 12:25am May 6, 2011 12:18am | Edited 12:25am
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,879 Posts
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
Now your talking composite profle analysis. Very hard to do properly when you cant merge profiles. I posted indicator that I used for more than a year to do that. Its very time consuming when you have limited tools. I just got spoiled with bandungs indi. and havent taken the time.
it might help to try to visually stack (merge) the profiles and see what anomaly still exist. That anomaly may just be a small part in an aready filled higher TF profile.
NVM, could be my i am just thinking way ahead of myself or my English really suck
