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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #2,441
  • May 5, 2011 11:58am May 5, 2011 11:58am
Quoting mzvega
My thoughts exactly! In a perfect world, that would at least let me walk away @ BE on my first longs and still have alittle profit.

@= around or about
Back in the day, there was a thing called a "type writer" believe it or not, before there was a thing called the internet. And in typing class @ meant "around or about" not "at". Hard habit to shake
in trading @ = around or about as well

i guess this is why James Dalton says you don't go against the move in a trend day...was BE for the week before trying to catch the falling knife...now -1% for the week....
Change is the only constant
  • #2,442
  • May 5, 2011 12:06pm May 5, 2011 12:06pm
Quoting tgwhbb
in trading @ = around or about as well

i guess this is why James Dalton says you don't go against the move in a trend day...was BE for the week before trying to catch the falling knife...now -1% for the week....
I agree. But the bright side is theres always another trade around the corner.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,443
  • May 5, 2011 12:50pm May 5, 2011 12:50pm
Quoting mzvega
I agree. But the bright side is theres always another trade around the corner.
yep

by the looks of it, i'd say EU is heading for NY DIBL ~1.4510...which would make for an astonishing 400 pip day!
Change is the only constant
  • #2,444
  • May 5, 2011 1:54pm May 5, 2011 1:54pm
Im out!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,445
  • May 5, 2011 1:58pm May 5, 2011 1:58pm
all i can say is WOW, what a day.

While i lost $$ this week, i'm actually quite happy. i went into the week expecting to bracket, but expected an upside breakout. Sure enough i was proven wrong, but what i'm happy about is that I realized it yesterday and got on with things.

My planning is generally good, but i need to work on execution a bit better. Case in point: My plan last night before Tokyo open was to look for a long to 4880 and then a short from there. A long was placed just after Tokyo open at 4815, with TP set to 4880. I did not set a sell limit at 4880 because i wanted to first see what London was going to do. My execution was flawed because my trade management skills need improving. The SL was set too tight, as it was based on a 5M retrace rather than a 15M and i was stopped out (for a gain) short of my target which was hit during london IB.

Another example of bad trade management. I got on short this AM just before NY open, expecting to break the weekly IBL, and once it did i exited too soon, again not trusting my levels and aiming for DIBL as I should have.

Sorry for the rant, just loggin my thoughts here. I'm now curious as to what tomorrow will bring...after a day like today, I can't imaging any big moves, but with NFP, who knows!
Change is the only constant
  • #2,446
  • May 5, 2011 2:15pm May 5, 2011 2:15pm
Quoting tgwhbb
all i can say is WOW, what a day.

While i lost $$ this week, i'm actually quite happy. i went into the week expecting to bracket, but expected an upside breakout. Sure enough i was proven wrong, but what i'm happy about is that I realized it yesterday and got on with things.

My planning is generally good, but i need to work on execution a bit better. Case in point: My plan last night before Tokyo open was to look for a long to 4880 and then a short from there. A long was placed just after Tokyo open at 4815, with TP set to 4880. I did not...
I appreciate you sharing, its good to go over where we go wrong. I too, fall prey to the same things. Timezone wise, it sucks for me ny open @ 5am
I also find it hard to wait for the IB to settle, no matter what the session. I feel I have a sense of market direction, and I take postion before the settle. I may have the direction but my timing sucks. And I always forget the higher TF. The weekly profiles said alot.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,447
  • May 5, 2011 2:24pm May 5, 2011 2:24pm
Quoting tgwhbb
all i can say is WOW, what a day....

Agree...I think u have your strategy in place but not in the right order...i suppose.

I am still trying to get my MP mindset into play but due to my Wyckoff influence, i need to gel them into unison....

The moves today for AU Uchf & EU all can be spotted with Wyckoff wave...I am still short AU & long Uchf & holding but not due to using MP...which kind of wonder why i still like MP ...

anyway always nice to hear your thoughts...tks
  • #2,448
  • May 5, 2011 2:33pm May 5, 2011 2:33pm
Took long @dibl. This is my last trade for the session.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,449
  • May 5, 2011 2:35pm May 5, 2011 2:35pm
Quoting mzvega
Took long @dibl. This is my last trade for the session.
same here! I knew you'd be in my target is NY IBL / VAL ~ 4670.

correction, first target is weekly DIBL @ 4600
Change is the only constant
  • #2,450
  • May 5, 2011 2:37pm May 5, 2011 2:37pm
Quoting tgwhbb
same here! I knew you'd be in my target is NY IBL / VAL ~ 4670.


Edit: Am I that predictable?
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,451
  • May 5, 2011 2:43pm May 5, 2011 2:43pm
Quoting mzvega
I appreciate you sharing, its good to go over where we go wrong. I too, fall prey to the same things. Timezone wise, it sucks for me ny open @ 5am
I also find it hard to wait for the IB to settle, no matter what the session. I feel I have a sense of market direction, and I take postion before the settle. I may have the direction but my timing sucks. And I always forget the higher TF. The weekly profiles said alot.
at least being on the west coast you can stay up for the london open!
Change is the only constant
  • #2,452
  • May 5, 2011 2:44pm May 5, 2011 2:44pm
I set my buy limit for 1.4452, lets see it gets filled or not.
Quoting tgwhbb
at least being on the west coast you can stay up for the london open!
  • #2,453
  • May 5, 2011 2:50pm May 5, 2011 2:50pm
Quoting skyscraper
I set my buy limit for 1.4452, lets see it gets filled or not.
I'm curious why you chose that level. EU already at 430 pips for the day, going down to 4452 means an extra 60 pips, given the time of day, i don't think it will get filled today IMO. that said, tried to catch a falling knife twice today and got cut so SL already set to BE on this one.

The only reference on the profile i can see around the 4450 level is the weekly POC from the week of April 10.
Change is the only constant
  • #2,454
  • May 5, 2011 2:55pm May 5, 2011 2:55pm
I think it last weeks low. Skyscraper, Please share, the more opinons the better!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,455
  • May 5, 2011 2:56pm May 5, 2011 2:56pm
I selected the weekly POC of APril 10, it could be a huge mark down before the NFP show begins tomorrow
Quoting tgwhbb
I'm curious why you chose that level. EU already at 430 pips for the day, going down to 4452 means an extra 60 pips, given the time of day, i don't think it will get filled today IMO. that said, tried to catch a falling knife twice today and got cut so SL already set to BE on this one.

The only reference on the profile i can see around the 4450 level is the weekly POC from the week of April 10.
  • #2,456
  • May 5, 2011 3:03pm May 5, 2011 3:03pm
Quoting skyscraper
I selected the weekly POC of APril 10, it could be a huge mark down before the NFP show begins tomorrow
ok, we're seeing the same levels

so, you are thinking this move today is a fakeout? honestly, part of me was thinking that earlier, which is also why i got out of the short from NY IB "early". But given all the levels EU broke through today without a sweat makes me think this is not a fake move, plus today's profile is clearly a trend profile, if this were a fake move I would expect to see more a 'p' shape profile indicative of short covering

for what it's worth, 4460 is also April's monthly POC...you could very well be right, one massive shakeout to clear the road for a strong up move! crazy! just crazy!!
Change is the only constant
  • #2,457
  • May 5, 2011 3:09pm May 5, 2011 3:09pm
Quoting skyscraper
I selected the weekly POC of APril 10, it could be a huge mark down before the NFP show begins tomorrow
Very interesting.... I appreciate your input, brought me back to the higher tf chart. From a longer perspective that point looks very pivotal as for direction. We were one timeframing and got decisive. Continued but we are returning. Interesting.
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,458
  • May 5, 2011 3:11pm May 5, 2011 3:11pm
Quoting mzvega
Very interesting.... I appreciate your input, brought me back to the higher tf chart. From a longer perspective that point looks very pivotal as for direction. We were one timeframing and got decisive. Continued but we are returning. Interesting.
that's another good point, if 4490 breaks, the weekly stops one-timeframing...
Change is the only constant
  • #2,459
  • May 5, 2011 3:17pm May 5, 2011 3:17pm
When everyone thinks we are in bear market - buy more Markdown is to make us believe that up move is over Just a thought.
Quoting tgwhbb
ok, we're seeing the same levels ...
  • #2,460
  • May 5, 2011 3:39pm May 5, 2011 3:39pm
Quoting skyscraper
When everyone thinks we are in bear market - buy more Markdown is to make us believe that up move is over Just a thought.
agree, but sometimes "buy more" works only if you have really big pockets even if you bought during today's drop and held, you'd likely still be negative several hundred pips...i wonder how many accounts got margin calls today for just that reason...

4450 is certainly a pivotal area, and also the bottom of the uptrend channel, so certainly a low risk long trade.

but the last time we had daily volume on EU that high was on 2/22 and 3/15, both produced long pins bars (up thrusts or shakeouts) and ensuing move in the opposite direction...just food for thought...
Change is the only constant
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