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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #2,421
  • May 5, 2011 8:17am May 5, 2011 8:17am
Wow, my profile Z period just keeps going and going, lol. I've been sidelining this whole week keeping tabs on the bracket we were experiencing the last few days and once we busted through Tuesday's buying tail it was over from there. We'll probably re-distribute down here between current prices and 1.4730. There are pips to be made, my friends. With the Bin Laden thing and all the other event risk out there. I figure it's best for me to use this week to hone my logging skills.
  • #2,422
  • May 5, 2011 8:22am May 5, 2011 8:22am
OMG what just happened! what ever it was, I entered a long. Its should imo retrace somewhat. I might be wrong.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,423
  • May 5, 2011 8:29am May 5, 2011 8:29am
Quoting Bilstein
Wow, my profile Z period just keeps going and going, lol.
lol, yes quite the move...now EU is starting to balance in 'a' period between about 4700 and 4677. 4677 is right near last wednesdays naked POC, and near also week's VAH ~4650. I would suspect a good bounce at 4650, but we'll see.

I'm watching to see if the single print 'Z' period starts getting filled above 'a' period, which would indicate a move back to test today's developing VAL...somehow i don't think that is going to happen though...
Change is the only constant
  • #2,424
  • May 5, 2011 8:34am May 5, 2011 8:34am
Yeah, there was a lot of plummeting there, hehe. I got work today but I'm thinking a pull back up to 1.4730. 1.4750 at the highest. With a big plop like that obviously we'll see double distribution. Unless some miracle happens that bids prices back to to the open.. It's strange seeing this kind of move the day before NFP. I'd imagine that number is going to be horrible (like all other US economic data) but, for those who still use VSA: doesn't strength reveal itself on bad news? Maybe this is the kicker to start a healthy correction?

I'll see you guys later, I'm off to go do the thing that funds my trading habit!
Have a good day, make some pips for me!
  • #2,425
  • May 5, 2011 8:53am May 5, 2011 8:53am
Quoting Bilstein
. We'll probably re-distribute down here between current prices and 1.4730.
Thats what Im hoping. Im questioning my position atm.
Dont work too hard!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,426
  • May 5, 2011 8:56am May 5, 2011 8:56am
its been a while since i've posted a chart, so here's my interpretation of EU since yesterday.

1. HVN that tested Wednesday's VAL during asia, EU bid and went up from there

2. london built value above wednesday's VAH and volume was still bullish.

3. london built volume above previous value area, ensuing drop from the highs was still on decreasing volume, so still needed to be thinking bullish at that point IMO, but the large amount of supply at that level is a concern.

4. NY then built value in HVN #2, and in #4 indicating decreasing value, this followed by decreasing volume as price went back up to 4890 area during asia/London IB. Here's is where bearishness is confirmed IMO on both the profile and VSA front. MP bearish due to value building lower, and VSA bearish volume.

I'm now waiting for a bounce around 4650 and will probably go long there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Change is the only constant
  • #2,427
  • May 5, 2011 9:01am May 5, 2011 9:01am
I see absorption now at 4665 with a spring back up...
  • #2,428
  • May 5, 2011 9:21am May 5, 2011 9:21am
Quoting tgwhbb
its been a while since i've posted a chart, so here's my interpretation of EU since yesterday.

1....

Very good analysis...I am expecting a spring off 4650 too...

4750 LVN was knock out but notice that it is within the area of that widespread demand bar with high volume...
  • #2,429
  • May 5, 2011 9:30am May 5, 2011 9:30am
I may have to scratch these 2 shorts. Seeing if there is a way to manage this. Without much more loss.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,430
  • May 5, 2011 9:55am May 5, 2011 9:55am
Quoting Evak
Very good analysis...I am expecting a spring off 4650 too...

4750 LVN was knock out but notice that it is within the area of that widespread demand bar with high volume...
so much for that bounce at 4650...closed my long for a loss...how far is this thing going to go!!
Change is the only constant
  • #2,431
  • Edited 10:00am May 5, 2011 9:58am | Edited 10:00am
Im starting to get concerned. We are very near wval. I would like to see otf buyers step in at the wval. Not sure if it will happenen. But if buyers arent steping in at the wval Ill have to close. But if I scratch, my next logical trade would trade a bounce are any type of rejection of that area, to hold or not to hold?

Edit: we are also near wdibl
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,432
  • May 5, 2011 10:03am May 5, 2011 10:03am
Ladies and Genteleman:

No reason to be influenced by price. 1.46 is a great level to be long targeting 1.47. This move is merely long term participants exiting. They will overshoot and quite soon.
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  • #2,433
  • Edited 10:25am May 5, 2011 10:10am | Edited 10:25am
Quoting Guerrillawar
Ladies and Genteleman:

No reason to be influenced by price. 1.46 is a great level to be long targeting 1.47. This move is merely long term participants exiting. They will overshoot and quite soon.
Thank you! I needeed to hear that atm. Its very hard not to be infuenced by price. Value is still above. and there is not enough volume below to move the va lower atm. Still not happy about being negative atm.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,434
  • May 5, 2011 10:26am May 5, 2011 10:26am
Just added buy @ 1.4017.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,435
  • May 5, 2011 10:27am May 5, 2011 10:27am
Quoting mzvega
I may have to scratch these 2 shorts. Seeing if there is a way to manage this. Without much more loss.
I meant to say long! Sorry!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,436
  • May 5, 2011 10:32am May 5, 2011 10:32am
300+ pips move will have for sure a correction but maybe not today. POC of this week and last week are 250 pips away and this weeks profile is very fresh and will need to fill its structure. Further we have no major fundamental change.

Quoting mzvega
Thank you! I needeed to hear that atm. Its very hard not to be infuenced by price. Value is still above. and there is not enough volume below to move the va lower atm. Still not happy about being negative atm.
  • #2,437
  • May 5, 2011 11:03am May 5, 2011 11:03am
I have a feeling this is going to be a long day. Im hoping London(european) will take alittle pressure off with thier close.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,438
  • Edited 11:46am May 5, 2011 11:29am | Edited 11:46am
Quoting mzvega
I have a feeling this is going to be a long day. Im hoping London(european) will take alittle pressure off with thier close.
indeed...i honestly was not expecting this to happen today, the day before NFP...i went to bed last night thinking today was going to be an inside day...so much for that...

I'm long at the weekly DIBL. Optimisitlcally to 1.47 (developing VAL), realistically to NY IBL @4677

EDIT: I'm out...take my losses and run...i have the oddest feeling this drop is not done...
Change is the only constant
  • #2,439
  • Edited 11:44am May 5, 2011 11:42am | Edited 11:44am
Quoting tgwhbb
indeed...i honestly was not expecting this to happen today, the day before NFP...i went to bed last night thinking today was going to be an inside day...so much for that...

I'm long at the weekly DIBL. Optimisitlcally to 1.47 (developing VAL), realistically to NY IBL @4677
My thoughts exactly! In a perfect world, that would at least let me walk away @ BE on my first longs and still have alittle profit.

@= around or about
Back in the day, there was a thing called a "type writer" believe it or not, before there was a thing called the internet. And in typing class @ meant "around or about" not "at". Hard habit to shake
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,440
  • May 5, 2011 11:55am May 5, 2011 11:55am
Quoting tgwhbb
indeed...i honestly was not expecting this to happen today, the day before NFP...i went to bed last night thinking today was going to be an inside day...so much for that...

I'm long at the weekly DIBL. Optimisitlcally to 1.47 (developing VAL), realistically to NY IBL @4677

EDIT: I'm out...take my losses and run...i have the oddest feeling this drop is not done...
Sounds like a good idea, im going to try to hold out for frankfurt close in @ hour and then Ill consider a scratch.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
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