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VWVB Daily Chart Analysis

  • #161
  • Mar 9, 2006 12:09am Mar 9, 2006 12:09am
Quoting xspowerx
Gentlemen, I believe many of us here have the wrong setup on the USDCAD. Although it did show profitability off the 2nd extreme, it shouldn't have even been traded in regards to Vegas's rules. I think were all using Model 1 when we should be using Model 2! That's why we thought it was at the extreme.

I was using model 1 by accident.. I think I may stick to it after seeing what happened couple of days ago LOL.
look back at the daily over the last couple of years .Model 1 definetly looks like it gives more vegas trade opertunities.second fib below the tunnel and first fib above.It oly broke the third fib once last year!!
  • #162
  • Mar 9, 2006 7:45am Mar 9, 2006 7:45am
Quoting lambrechtj
Also DOF was not trading according to Vegas rules he was just trying out something called a Cup and a Handle and a Harami Candle formation he knew he was not at the Vegas daily fib lines.
The Vegas daily line should have been the 3rd. I put the trade on the 2nd because I had more indicators to tell me that it's time. The trade could not succeded, but all trades have a chance (bigger or lower) of insucces.
RSI moving from an overbought or oversold area into the normal area seems to me as a good signal, I think it's worth studing. If there is anybody else that had been reading and studing about RSI, please share your analysis with us.
In some thread I put a post related to Vegas system and the filter that RSI could be for Vegas system.
http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...&postcount=116
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #163
  • Mar 9, 2006 8:09am Mar 9, 2006 8:09am
Quoting zenophyte
look back at the daily over the last couple of years .Model 1 definetly looks like it gives more vegas trade opertunities.second fib below the tunnel and first fib above.It oly broke the third fib once last year!!
Yea you right Im gonna stick to it.
  • #164
  • Mar 9, 2006 8:43am Mar 9, 2006 8:43am
Quoting zenophyte
look back at the daily over the last couple of years .Model 1 definetly looks like it gives more vegas trade opertunities.second fib below the tunnel and first fib above.It oly broke the third fib once last year!!
That's an interesting comment that I think deserves further investigation.

Does that mean in a MedTerm downtrending market,{we would prefer to be short the market.} we shouldn't expect the price to reach the same level Fib to the Upside to trigger a Short as we we expect it to reach on the downside to trigger a Buy?

ie. In a Downtrending Market, A Fall in price through Upper Fib Line #2 may trigger a Sell?
Whereas it may require a Rise in price through Lower Fib Line #3 to trigger a Buy?

Am I making sense?
  • #165
  • Mar 9, 2006 9:00am Mar 9, 2006 9:00am
I have my USD/CAD daily chart at model 1 and went back to Nov 2003 to see what things look like as time passes. Then I changed it to Model 2. Model 1 may be a better choice today but historically, I think model 2 may have been a better choice.

Comments...
  • #166
  • Mar 9, 2006 9:18am Mar 9, 2006 9:18am
Quoting MrMajik
I have my USD/CAD daily chart at model 1 and went back to Nov 2003 to see what things look like as time passes. Then I changed it to Model 2. Model 1 may be a better choice today but historically, I think model 2 may have been a better choice.

Comments...
Vegas has indicated that he had created different risk models to catch the fib extremes of any currency pair. The market dynamics keep changing and there is nothing wrong in choosing the best risk model fit..No standard rule works in forex and it's the responsibility of the trader to keep adjusting the risk model as the market demands. Just my opinion.

Shan
  • #167
  • Mar 9, 2006 10:00am Mar 9, 2006 10:00am
03/09/2006 at 11am est..
Attached Image
  • #168
  • Mar 9, 2006 10:07am Mar 9, 2006 10:07am
There are some free indicators for this, Yes they are pretty much the same. Ask Dial where the indicators are they are out there in a couple places.

Quoting dof
Do the vegas 4h tunel work better than knife 4h? Are the same? What's the differece?
So knife 4h:
A 55 period SMA on the median price.
An 8 period SMA on the close price.
Vegas 4h (1h, the same):
Create a 1 hour chart on whatever currency pairs interest you. Barcharts or candlesticks really make no difference. Overlay on this 3 things: 1) a 169 period [1 hour] ema [exponential moving average], 2) a 144 period [1 hour] ema, and finally 3) a 12 period [1hour] ema.
  • #169
  • Mar 9, 2006 10:07am Mar 9, 2006 10:07am
vishalshan,

Just to let you know I anticipate these updates you post to compare with what I have. Keep 'em coming!
  • #170
  • Mar 9, 2006 10:11am Mar 9, 2006 10:11am
Quoting MrMajik
vishalshan,

Just to let you know I anticipate these updates you post to compare with what I have. Keep 'em coming!
Me too. Great work Shan. and thanks a mip.[that's a bunch o' pips:]
  • #171
  • Mar 10, 2006 5:51am Mar 10, 2006 5:51am
It's great to see your posts Shan, it's nice to have a confirmation heads up.


Thanks again
  • #172
  • Mar 10, 2006 6:35am Mar 10, 2006 6:35am
Quoting MrMajik
vishalshan,
Just to let you know I anticipate these updates you post to compare with what I have. Keep 'em coming!
I'd like to echo those sentiments. It assists in confirming my own interpretations, and reaffirms that i'm on the right track.

Thanks Vish...
Andrew.
  • #173
  • Mar 10, 2006 6:53am Mar 10, 2006 6:53am
Quoting vishalshan
03/09/2006 at 11am est..
I just noticed your chart said model# 1 for usdcad ... the doc says model# 2 ... did we change something?

USD/CAD - Model #2. You now have 3 fib lines on both sides of the tunnel [for a total of 6]. The fib numbers are calculated at 144, 233, and 377 from the daily tunnel.

USD/CAD - The second fib level [233] and higher.

Thanks for the updates Shan ...
If it is not broken, fix it until it is!
  • #174
  • Mar 10, 2006 7:45am Mar 10, 2006 7:45am
Quoting Pipex
I just noticed your chart said model# 1 for usdcad ... the doc says model# 2 ... did we change something?

USD/CAD - Model #2. You now have 3 fib lines on both sides of the tunnel [for a total of 6]. The fib numbers are calculated at 144, 233, and 377 from the daily tunnel.

USD/CAD - The second fib level [233] and higher.

Thanks for the updates Shan ...
The model numbers are not etched in stone. If you look back in time you will see Model 2 was the best model up until lately. If you change the model to 1 and look at the current price candles you will see model 1 actually calls the reversals better. This can change again someday down the road.
  • #175
  • Edited 9:56am Mar 10, 2006 9:05am | Edited 9:56am
03/10/2006 at 10.05am est..
Attached Image
  • #176
  • Mar 10, 2006 9:08am Mar 10, 2006 9:08am
Quoting vishalshan
03/10/2006 at 10.05am est..
Thanks for the updates and for keeping an eye on the pairs shan..
  • #177
  • Mar 10, 2006 9:10am Mar 10, 2006 9:10am
Quoting Pipex
I just noticed your chart said model# 1 for usdcad ... the doc says model# 2 ... did we change something?

USD/CAD - Model #2. You now have 3 fib lines on both sides of the tunnel [for a total of 6]. The fib numbers are calculated at 144, 233, and 377 from the daily tunnel.

USD/CAD - The second fib level [233] and higher.

Thanks for the updates Shan ...
Yes Pipex, as MrMajik told, we are following the extreme fib rule for usd/cad based on current market behaviour as found by dof. So we are going with model #1 for usd/cad as of now.

Shan
  • #178
  • Mar 10, 2006 9:25am Mar 10, 2006 9:25am
Thanks for the updates shan I've had my eyes glued on the pairs you show in yellow all morning looking for that top out top o the mountain reversal.

Quoting vishalshan
Yes Pipex, as MrMajik told, we are following the extreme fib rule for usd/cad based on current market behaviour as found by dof. So we are going with model #1 for usd/cad as of now.

Shan
  • #179
  • Mar 10, 2006 9:58am Mar 10, 2006 9:58am
I'm adding 2 more cols for the risk model used and the extreme fib # for the pairs.. Hope this would clarify all what model and which ext fib # we are currently using..

Shan
  • #180
  • Mar 10, 2006 10:06am Mar 10, 2006 10:06am
Quoting vishalshan
I'm adding 2 more cols for the risk model used and the extreme fib # for the pairs.. Hope this would clarify all what model and which ext fib # we are currently using..

Shan
Perfect.
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