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  • #21
  • Edited 11:28pm May 4, 2011 11:18pm | Edited 11:28pm
Still sitting on the 2 EUR/USD and 1 USD/CHF trades for now. I almost added a third EUR/USD trade, but price flirted with my buy limit by 4 pips! It's now time for some thinking.

On the EUR/USD Front, we have the event risk of the ECB Press Conference, where it is hoped Trichet might use the magic word 'vigilance' in his statements, reconciling hawkish expectations of rate hikes in the coming months. If this were to occur, it is not unreasonable to posit that the pairing will be bolstered upwards - possibly even past the 1.4950 resistance, and will then have 1.5000 in its sights.

Such large movements in EUR/USD will affect other majors, and one of particular interest is USD/JPY, which is slowly creeping downwards to 80.00. BOJ has a mandate to maintain the exchange rate at an acceptable level to assist the various export giants who contribute heavily to the economy, and below 80.00 the possibility of intervention is re-kindled. I will enter long on this pair after it breaks 80.00 and the market has some time to digest and react to the move. Furthermore, with hawkish talk from Trichet, I also envision a resurgence of carry trades in EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY, which will help lift USD/JPY. Thus, the downside of USD/JPY is quite limited which will make for a low-risk trade whether there is hawkish chatter from the ECB or not. (I believe prevailing sentiment alone will be enough to drive the pairing to intervention levels - albeit much more slowly)

USD/CHF trade is still being held because there is still Middle Eastern Tension, the trend of bearish U.S economic data is still around, coupled with dovish monetary policy talks from Fed Officials, and I'm still weary of any possible repercussions relating to Bin Laden's death which have not surfaced as yet. The latter though I'm willing to denote a less significant role as time progresses. Additionally, uncertainty regarding the memebers of US Government to reach an agreement about the debt ceiling should add further downward pressure.

I also initiated a long position on AUD/USD, which already has half the trade taken off at R/R 1:1. In the near-term, I'm looking for a move to 1.0775, which should be considerably easier to reach given the clearance the disappointing retail sales has produced.

Entry could have been considerably better, but I was a tad impatient....will have to work on that...I also need to get up to scratch with what's happening in Australia, Japan and England...I feel like my trading will be greatly improved with this knowledge. With that I'm off to finish my Math - Probability to be precise, which is such an interesting topic I wish I discovered it earlier! I see a great many ways to apply it to trading.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
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  • #22
  • May 4, 2011 11:20pm May 4, 2011 11:20pm
Quoting bug
Hey xXTrizzleXx, nice thread you got going here. I will be following closely.

May I suggest that you upload your charts directly to FF? The imageshack ads are really annoying.
Welcome to the thread! I never knew that the Imageshack Images contained ads, for image appears cleanly for me - I guess it's because I was the uploader? But I will begin to upload directly to FF - thanks for the tip.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #23
  • May 5, 2011 2:20am May 5, 2011 2:20am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Welcome to the thread! I never knew that the Imageshack Images contained ads, for image appears cleanly for me - I guess it's because I was the uploader? But I will begin to upload directly to FF - thanks for the tip.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
The thing is that when you click on the image you are not taken directly to the image but on to a buffer page where you can choose to view the image in full size. Ads are displayed all over the place (see screenshot below). In any case, it is easier to find images later using the FF paperclip if you just upload them here.

Don't beat yourself up too much over the entry on Aussie, the entry was just fine. Besides the entry is in the past now, all you got to do is exit with a profit. You can always fine-tune/optimize your entry but remember to differentiate between pairs. With fiber you can expect support and resistance to hold due to the huge pool of liquidity behind it. With cable, for example, stops get taken out all day long due to lower liquidity (makes for faster seesaw moves). So, when you are thinking of fine-tuning your entry method for Aussie, be sure to do some homework beforehand so that when you implement improvements they really do help your bottom line.

The above is something that I'm doing myself right now. I've had some success over the last half year but due to the different nature of currency pairs and my lack of knowledge in the specific way they operate I've had to take time off and rethink my strategy. Of course, I trade off very low TF charts and moves there can be very erratic, especially if you don't know what you're doing. One of the things that I've done is compared my entry method on different pairs, optimized and then reevaluated. I used to beat myself up for missing entries and exits on cable but only now I realize that I should've dropped cable a long time ago. The strategy I use just doesn't fit cable. I'm not sure the specific are of much use to you, but at least I hope you get the point of what I was trying to say.
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If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #24
  • May 5, 2011 3:46am May 5, 2011 3:46am
Quoting bug
The thing is that when you click on the image you are not taken directly to the image but on to a buffer page where you can choose to view the image in full size. Ads are displayed all over the place (see screenshot below). In any case, it is easier to find images later using the FF paperclip if you just upload them here.
Ah I see, I wasn't taking into account the fact that people would click on them! I guess the OANDA screenie is a tad small.

Quote
Don't beat yourself up too much over the entry on Aussie, the entry was just fine. Besides the entry is in the past now, all you got to do is exit with a profit.
In hindsight, sure it was, but there was no excuse for me to enter ahead of where I guesstimated support to be, simply for fear of being left out of the move! I would have been able to enter at a much better price, suffer a much lower risk of drawdown, be able to take half off the trade quicker; and have a tighter stop - all with a little more patience!

I have closed the trade at +7 because I now feel uncomfortable with it. I will however, leave a limit order at my intended entry point. If it gets missed - there will be plenty of other opportunities to catch. Like the maxim goes, it's better to be out of a trading wishing one was in, than to be in a trade, wishing one was out!

Quote
You can always fine-tune/optimize your entry but remember to differentiate between pairs. With fiber you can expect support and resistance to hold due to the huge pool of liquidity behind it. With cable, for example, stops get taken out all day long due to lower liquidity (makes for faster seesaw moves). So, when you are thinking of fine-tuning your entry method for Aussie, be sure to do some homework beforehand so that when you implement improvements they really do help your bottom line.
I wholeheartedly agree with you that the pairs vary liquidity-wise, but in my view they vary only in their distribution of liquidity. An illiquid pair like Cable has large seesaw moves because the liquidity is distributed thinly and irregularly; the available limit orders are 'less dense and orderly' than in a more liquid pair like Fiber, and as a result price has less impeding its path as transactions are fulfilled.

With Fiber I expect support and resistance to hold due to the huge pool of liquidity behind it, relative to it's normal liquidity distribution (ie. at points between purported support and resistance) On the same token, I would also expect support and resistance to also hold on Cable due to the (smaller compared to Fiber) liquidity behind it, relative to it's normal liquidity distribution. Support and resistance hold just as well on Cable in my experience - you just have to have a sound method of identifying them.

Quote
The above is something that I'm doing myself right now. I've had some success over the last half year but due to the different nature of currency pairs and my lack of knowledge in the specific way they operate I've had to take time off and rethink my strategy. Of course, I trade off very low TF charts and moves there can be very erratic, especially if you don't know what you're doing. One of the things that I've done is compared my entry method on different pairs, optimized and then reevaluated.
I hope you didn't misunderstand when I meant work on the entry - I earnestly meant my discipline. It's interesting to note that I followed a similar approach but after a while, I felt as if I was falling into the pernicious trap of curve-fitting. I used to constantly test, optimize and create an array of configurations on previous data, but who is to say it will be maintained in the future? I also didn't like the fact that I had to 'optimize' each instrument I traded.

My trading took a turn for the better after some long nights when I thought about how I could come up with some basic trading principles, which I could streamline simply and quickly to any instrument. Things like fixed TP and SL, trailing SL for exits, moving my stop up to break-even etc. simply did not fit in with this methodology. I wanted a logical trigger. I couldn't find the logic behind say trailing one's stop by the last X bars. Why X and not X+1, X+2, etc? Is it because past data showed that X was the average value? How would this average value of the past, help me in the future? What a philosophical time that was in my trading!

I too delved into the world of low TF charts, but soon realized I couldn't devote time to watching my charts so actively with school and all. Perhaps it was also the realization that TF doesn't particularly apply to my methodology regarding entries. It all depends on what you use for your entry signal. If it is candlesticks on low TF to judge momentum or something of the sort, then perhaps I can see why you would need to zoom in. But if you deem your entries to be precise points in the market, then it doesn't matter what TF you use, as it will be hit at the same time in all of them.

Quote
I used to beat myself up for missing entries and exits on cable but only now I realize that I should've dropped cable a long time ago. The strategy I use just doesn't fit cable. I'm not sure the specific are of much use to you, but at least I hope you get the point of what I was trying to say.
Point received! Thanks for looking out for me!

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #25
  • May 5, 2011 1:03pm May 5, 2011 1:03pm
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
I hope you didn't misunderstand when I meant work on the entry - I earnestly meant my discipline.
Ahh...OK, now I see.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #26
  • May 5, 2011 5:17pm May 5, 2011 5:17pm
Thursday May 5th, 2011

What an epic day for trading today was!

Congratulations to all who were on the correct side of the huge moves the market made today - especially in the EUR/USD and various commodity markets, which are presently undergoing sharp corrections!

I began this morning by entering a position in AUD/USD as posted earlier, which I closed out for +7 for I began to feel uncomfortable with the trade, and found it was entered rather impatiently.

I then opted to remain with my EUR/USD and USD/CHF trades, which had to be bailed out immediately when Trichet proceeded to urinate on all the markets' anticipations for a near-term rate hike. It would not have been prudent of me to close out one of those EUR/USD positions to mitigate event risk ahead of the event, but this is in hindsight. Experience can only enhance my expertise.

I also failed to establish a long position on USD/JPY which I thought would be a low probability trade to the upside. If anyone has backtesting software, it is interesting to note what occurred between 5:45 and 6:30 EST this morning - it may spark some creative trading ideas.

I was however pleased with my previous view regarding the Precious Metals markets, as seen in post 3, as it finally came to fruition - at least something went right!

Quoting xXTrizzleXx
<snip>
Again from the XAG/XAU thread

Quote
If one were to look at the effects these would have on the PMs, the first and last scenario would have the greatest magnitude. Given the structure of the market currently, a large number of participants are undoubtedly very bullish for silver for various reasons.
Quote
Thus, I'm just concerned that with the recent CME Margin hikes for XAG/XAU etc, that a move to the downside may be disproportionately larger in magnitude than a move to the upside for the added possibility of liquidation of positions due to margin calls; especially for late bulls to the move
<snip>

I also dug up an ironic tidbit today:

Quote
Silver Thursday, was an event that occurred in the silver commodity market on Thursday, 27 March 1980. A steep fall in silver prices led to panic on commodity and future exchanges.
Quote
But on January 7, 1980, in response to the Hunt's accumulation, the exchange rules regarding leverage were changed, when COMEX adopted the "Silver Rule 7" placing heavy restrictions on the purchase of commodities by margin.
Quote

The Hunt Brothers had borrowed heavily to finance their purchases, and as the price began to fall again, dropping over 50% in just four days, they were unable to meet their obligations, causing panic in the markets.
Interesting parallels can be drawn from the above! Humans are such fascinating creatures.

The huge moves that happened today are truly humbling, and it just provides further reinforcement that mitigating risk; ie. obtaining 'free/break even trades' is an invaluable trade management strategy.

My future trade outlooks are for a dip once more to the late 70s for USD/JPY, where I will begin to mosey into a cozy long position when it becomes the focus of market participants - notably the BoJ. Regarding USD/CHF, I'll only be shorting provided a new event results in heightened risk aversion.

On the Euro front, I'll be looking for heightened positive signs of inflation as my trigger to long the Euro. Alternatively, if commodities especially Oil pick up once more, and emerging market carry trades begin piling, I will also anticipate a long Euro position - even if it is relatively short-term. However, with the sharp moves that have occurred in the commodity markets, I think there is a certain hint of risk aversion which may linger for a short while longer. If Greek Debt spreads widen further and the market takes notice, you can also bet I'll ride it short until the problem resolves itself.

Tomorrow is NFP and I am on the sidelines unless the numbers come out to fulfill or exceed expectations. In this event, I will consider shorting the Euro further until market close. With the current subtle change in sentiment to the USD, even meeting the forecast marginally could provide a nice move.

Good luck!
xXTrizzleXx
  • #27
  • May 6, 2011 12:49am May 6, 2011 12:49am
I have been considering it, and I am deciding to enter a long position on AUD/USD, as the market builds up anticipation for rate hikes by the RBA in the near future, due to hawkish commentary received.

I will play the move up, as participants build into positions, but I am also thinking that I should initiate my position after the event risk posed by the NFP tomorrow. I get the feeling that the market will take the numbers as a USD positive response, if they marginally surpass expectations, allowing me to scoop up possibly a better deal for my AUD/USD. I remembered reading some Fed commentary regarding 200K being a rough estimate of the NFP figures for the coming months, and if it lands in the 195K+ region, then I'll be on the look out to scoop up a mispricing.

I also had an idea for another trade, but forgot...must really put these things down on paper quicker!

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #28
  • May 6, 2011 2:26am May 6, 2011 2:26am
I would like to expand on your comments regarding commodities. It was not only silver that took a beating, it was also oil, gold and the wider CRB index (oil -10.2%, CRB -4.9%, silver -12.6%, copper -3.7%, 10Y note -6bp etc). Apparently the CME not only increased its margin requirements, but it also doubled the price limits on a number of contracts, including oil. It's interesting to note that right before the doubling oil was limit down at -$10 but right after announcement it dropped even more. I think this is a very important wake-up call to all those who think they can trade without knowing how the market works and without paying attention to news. Obviously the thread starter has already mentioned he follows fundies which is great, but for the rest of the readers who don't, maybe you should.

It's funny that with all the talk about the US losing its power the rules that govern trading on US exchanges still have wide-ranging impacts on the market's moves. Don't bury the US, just not yet. It's still the largest economy, but what's more, it is a major trading hub.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #29
  • May 6, 2011 1:16pm May 6, 2011 1:16pm
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
I have been considering it, and I am deciding to enter a long position on AUD/USD, as the market builds up anticipation for rate hikes by the RBA in the near future, due to hawkish commentary received.
Quote
I will play the move up, as participants build into positions, but I am also thinking that I should initiate my position after the event risk posed by the NFP tomorrow. I get the feeling that the market will take the numbers as a USD positive response, if they marginally surpass expectations, allowing me to scoop up possibly a better deal for my AUD/USD. I remembered reading some Fed commentary regarding 200K being a rough estimate of the NFP figures for the coming months, and if it lands in the 195K+ region, then I'll be on the look out to scoop...
So while my analysis may have been correct here, I'm still waiting for a sufficient dip to enter long AUD/USD. It may very well be on early Monday morning that a favourable price becomes available to me.

Quoting xXTrizzleXx
<snip>
On the Euro front,

<snip>
If Greek Debt spreads widen further and the market takes notice, you can also bet I'll ride it short until the problem resolves itself.

Tomorrow is NFP and I am on the sidelines unless the numbers come out to fulfill or exceed expectations. In this event, I will consider shorting the Euro further until market close. With the current subtle change in sentiment to the USD, even meeting the forecast marginally could provide a nice move.
Fortunately though I had certain inklings about the Euro Trade which led me to leave some Pending Orders before I fell asleep. Both criteria for me to go short were fulfilled, and it's a wonderful feeling when your analysis happens to come to fruition, you act on it, and then profit from the resulting movement. I intended to initiate 2 positions, one to not miss the move down and another conservative sell limit where I would have indeed liked to enter. Being unlucky, price came within 2 pips of my sell limit before plummeting downwards, but at least my sell stop was caught.

Of interest is also how the market reacted to the NFP numbers, for at first the greater than expected numbers initially caused the logical drop in EUR/USD. Soon after, a hefty rally ensued, which seemed to sorely contradict how the market should interpret the results. To the average speculator, this provides positive reinforcement of why the market is irrational, but looking at the big picture, and having a sufficient understanding of how the market works allows one to spot such blatant mispricings, and capitalize on the move when the market re-aligns itself.

Always ask yourself if I were a bargain hunter, where would the best price lie in relation to current events? I aim to enter at the best prices, and consequently I may not always be successful, as seen with that unfilled sell limit in EUR/USD.

Additionally some Greek Debt issues came to the fore, and even rumours of Greek threatening to leave the EuroZone! While rumours may not necessarily be true, the market is not always driven by the truth - it is driven by human emotion, and if participants get frightened, you can bet they will act in a predictable manner. Even if the rumour is unfounded, the fact that market attention is now back on Greece still has a negative connotation, and this factor will have to change, or some other Euro-positive event must take precedence to motivate me to close my position.

Will be quite interesting to see how this all plays out over the weekend. Given the nature of the exposure of several banks to Greek Debt, it's hard to envision something as serious as a default, but perhaps an unfavourable restructuring. If it defaults then EUR/USD will be back in the 1.30s in short order.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
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  • #30
  • May 6, 2011 1:29pm May 6, 2011 1:29pm
Quoting bug
It's interesting to note that right before the doubling oil was limit down at -$10 but right after announcement it dropped even more. I think this is a very important wake-up call to all those who think they can trade without knowing how the market works and without paying attention to news. Obviously the thread starter has already mentioned he follows fundies which is great, but for the rest of the readers who don't, maybe you should.
It simply confounds me why participants will ignore fundamental information that the market uses to generate trade decisions, and will happily pawn it off as unpredictable/irrational. Just following them daily provides experience to enhance one's expertise, and it won't take long before one is able to connect various pieces of the picture to build a logical scenario, and trade it.

Quote
It's funny that with all the talk about the US losing its power the rules that govern trading on US exchanges still have wide-ranging impacts on the market's moves. Don't bury the US, just not yet. It's still the largest economy, but what's more, it is a major trading hub.

My views exactly. By next year, I can gladly see myself taking long USD positions in anticipation of USD strengthening and rate hikes following the end of QE2 in June. The point is while the USD's situation may be bad, relative to several other economies it is acceptable. I feel like it's more a case of anti-America sentiment than anything else.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #31
  • May 9, 2011 12:02am May 9, 2011 12:02am
My stance for EUR/USD is to let the trade remain until Greek is brought out of focus of the headlines, or until I am stopped out at +40. The series of events which have transpired lately have piqued my interest as they seem to conform well with an exercise in Game Theory, as various market participants try to achieve their objectives and further their own agendas.

My outlook for AUD/USD is bullish in the near-term, and I'm waiting for the market to go down and hit a limit buy which I have pending. I'm thinking a possible avenue for this may be the Budget Address, which is slated to be 'tough' - I'm hoping 'tough' enough to put some downward pressure on the cash-cow that is AUD/USD.

Looking forward to how this week plays out...it's one of the reasons I enjoy trading so much - no matter how well you may plan, you have absolutely no idea what the coming week will bring. Something's always going on in the markets, meaning there are always trades to be made.

Good luck,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #32
  • May 9, 2011 6:04am May 9, 2011 6:04am
The day is shaping up to be a classic risk-on day, which usually fuels rallies in EUR/USD, but I have an inkling that my position is safe, as perhaps the early rallies that were witnessed were perhaps participants who were unable to initate positions on Friday, building up positions to enter the move under better liquidity conditions.

I may have second thoughts about maintaining the position if Oil begins to climb further, as Petrodollar diversification would eat away my floating profit. One must wonder though if these players would consider diversifying in light of the recent rumblings. I know for a fact that China has to diversify its large-scale reserves in the future, and I'm wondering if perhaps the Euro at these prices is a tempting bargain for them. However, it may make more sense for them to start moving into it when the sovereign issues clear up, for as long as they are prevalent, their heavily US denominated reserves only gain strength. Who knows, I may just enter along when they're in the process of diversifying!

It's also noteworthy to remember that the market is still anticipating at least 2 more rate hikes from the ECB before the turn of the year, and so my outlook for the longer term is bullish.

Finally, I hope the risk-on environment doesn't bring AUD/USD too far away from my limit buy. An ideal scenario would be a stringent budget coupled with some sharp moves in the commodities markets due to a recent margin hike in Silver. Combined, these should bring me within grasps of my order.

Good luck,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #33
  • May 9, 2011 3:32pm May 9, 2011 3:32pm
Excuse my terrible manners! I didn't realize this thread had a Voucher Requirement to post! This has been rectified to allow those who have not received any to be able to share their thoughts.

Good luck,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #34
  • May 10, 2011 1:17am May 10, 2011 1:17am
Nice thread. I am actually very ignorant of the news and feel this is something I must work on. What news resources are you using?
Thanks
  • #35
  • Edited 8:14am May 10, 2011 5:07am | Edited 8:14am
XX, how are you holding up? During the morning hours we had talk about a ANOTHER bailout for Greece, then a denial. This made trading practically impossible. I've handed out two days worth of profits and if this thing doesn't stop soon I'm afraid I'm going to have to visit Greece and sow their mouths shut so they stop talking nonsense.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #36
  • May 10, 2011 6:23am May 10, 2011 6:23am
Whatsup, Boy Plunger! I never thought I'd be learning from an 18 year old.
  • #37
  • Edited 9:47pm May 10, 2011 8:58pm | Edited 9:47pm
Wow, what a topsy-turvy day today turned out to be!

On the Euro front, we say the market exhibit some hormonal swings in reaction to various contradicting news reports and statements from officials, leaving the pair in a confined range. Eventually, the market's fears of a Greek Debt Restructuring were quelled, as a 'rescue bailout' package was deemed to be in the works, and it appears the powerhouses Germany and France will stand behind them.

Such an outcome was favourable to said powerhouses, as well as the ECB, for their banks are naturally exposed to significant amounts of the debt at par value on their books, and a restructuring would have had lasting negative impact on the vulnerable banking sector. Given the position Germany was in, it was interesting to see Merkel and other officials hinting towards a Greek Debt Restructuring in light of the circumstances. However, we must remember that they have political motivations, and that it is the taxpayers' money that is being used to fund these controversial bailouts - not to mention that the powerhouses are the ones required to put up the largest shares. It would not do well for their political objectives if they were seen to openly embrace the concept of diverting the benefits of tax dollars from the German economy to fixing the troubles in Greece.

As frantic as things were, they seem to have cooled down slightly - for now. I'm still waiting for the outcome of the EU/IMF analysis to know what the outcome of this situation will be once and for all. However, the market has other intentions, and in light of this, I have decided to lock in 1.5R on my trade, with my stop at 1.4475. I also have a TP of 1.4370 The rationale is that the situation can have the following outcomes:

 

  1. Greece does not pass the scrutiny of the EU/IMF official investigation for a second bail-out, which will result in a relapse of fear. My TP should would be hit, and I would initiate yet another short position to ride the ensuing madness. +3.5R
  2. Greece meets the requirements of the officials, and a rescue bailout plan can be agreed to within a reasonable time frame. This should relieve the Euro and make way for other factors to influence the market. I'm thinking that one of these will be a heightened sense of risk-appetite, especially with commodities making a come-back. This would see my stop-loss hit. +1.5R

If it appears that risk-appetite has again enamoured the market you can bet I'll have my limit buys anticipating to be filled, to ride the move up. It will also make a good initial entry in anticipation of possible hawkish commentary next month at the ECB's meeting.

On the USD/JPY front, I'm still anticipating a move down to the intervention levels; ie. a break of the 80 handle before I begin to initiate long positions in anticipation of possible BoJ intervention.

GBP/USD needs improvement, as I have no clue what's going on

AUD/USD sees my limit buys unfulfilled as it appears that risk appetite may be developing. The budget did not have the depressatory effect I anticipated, and the pair is beginning its ascent. I see a quite limited downside, and a better than expected trade surplus, commodity recovery, hawkish commentary by the RBA, and the possibility of a decrease in inflation by China (which would ease up its aggressive monetary policy) all point to a near-term bullish AUD/USD.

In fact, if the inflation data comes out to be acceptably lower to indicate the monetary policy may be kicking in, then I may initiate a long position off the bat. This is happening in the next 5 minutes, so I'm glued to my chart.

EDIT: Nope, Chinese CPI came out just in line with expectations, so I'm patiently waiting for my limit buys to be hit now. It doesn't even appear that the market was focusing on it actively.

With much lower than anticipated inflation, CHF also appears to have weakened, and coupled with the possibility of rising risk-appetite, I'm not looking to initate any short positions in USD/CHF now.

All of the above can change on a dime of course. We're talking about the markets here.

Hope I've covered all bases,
xXTrizzleXx

  • #38
  • May 10, 2011 9:10pm May 10, 2011 9:10pm
Quoting Porkpie
Nice thread. I am actually very ignorant of the news and feel this is something I must work on. What news resources are you using?
Thanks
Heya Porkpie, thanks for joining us! I encourage you to try to keep abreast with it - I can't see how it won't augment your S&D trading. Regarding news resources I use The Economist, FX reports from some banks such as Scotia Bank and Bank of NY Mellon, ForexLive and from time to time IFR/4XNews from OANDA. I find ForexLive quite enough to suit my needs at the moment, but when I have time I'm looking to test ranSquawk and Market News International. ForexLive is a great help in that it extracts salient information from the huge amount of news that Reuters, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal provide.

Quoting bug
XX, how are you holding up? During the morning hours we had talk about a ANOTHER bailout for Greece, then a denial. This made trading practically impossible. I've handed out two days worth of profits and if this thing doesn't stop soon I'm afraid I'm going to have to visit Greece and sow their mouths shut so they stop talking nonsense.
Hey bug, trust me I feel you - the market really behaved like a cranky lady afflicted with PMS! I couldn't make heads or tails of it even if I tried, so I just opted to sit on my position from Friday. Luckily it was far enough from the market action for me to not have to worry about it. Greece must really love range traders! Did you get any positions in?

Quoting seagreen
Whatsup, Boy Plunger! I never thought I'd be learning from an 18 year old.
Hey seagreen, good to see you around here! Today was a bit erratic but I stood on the sidelines. Lol, I guess there's a first time for everything!

Good luck out there guys,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #39
  • May 10, 2011 9:24pm May 10, 2011 9:24pm
Trizzle, what do you think about USDCHF long? After their weak CPI the expectations of a hike are moving further away and this could reverse the trend at least temporarily.

Thanks
  • #40
  • May 10, 2011 9:31pm May 10, 2011 9:31pm
Quoting seagreen
Trizzle, what do you think about USDCHF long? After their weak CPI the expectations of a hike are moving further away and this could reverse the trend at least temporarily.

Thanks
Temporarily sure it may well make for a good few pips, especially if you found a nice low risk-place to enter. However my psyche won't let me take it becasue I still have waning reservations about possible repercussions from Bin Laden's death, as well as the on-going tensions in the Middle East. I also see the possibility of favourable job growth from the U.S, especially if the consensus is below 200K this time around again. Admittedly though these are not on the market's radar currently. Perhaps when Oil prices escalate further?

I'd like to see how you play it though if you're anticipating riding the move.

Good luck,
xXTrizzleXx
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