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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #2,401
  • May 4, 2011 7:27am May 4, 2011 7:27am
Quoting bandung
mine is @6520, +30 from my entry
frankkn already shorted...
I got nervous... close my long @6540
...
  • #2,402
  • May 4, 2011 7:28am May 4, 2011 7:28am
Quoting mzvega
I took 2 shorts @ the ny open. going to hold those for awhile, see what price does.
Get short up here and scratch your trade at 1.4862 or so and you will have a nice day most likely.
  • #2,403
  • May 4, 2011 7:37am May 4, 2011 7:37am
Quoting mzvega
I took 2 shorts @ the ny open. going to hold those for awhile, see what price does.
Looks good, i spotted a wyckoff test in 5m ( demand dries.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_09 May. 04 22.35.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #2,404
  • Edited 7:40am May 4, 2011 7:39am | Edited 7:40am
Quoting Guerrillawar
Get short up here and scratch your trade at 1.4862 or so and you will have a nice day most likely.

Are you sure? Im short @ 1.49064 & 1.49027. I didnt enter at "the open" I enter at the "climax up" bar.
actually, imo I should of added to up there
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,405
  • May 4, 2011 7:48am May 4, 2011 7:48am
Quoting bandung
frankkn already shorted...
I got nervous... close my long @6540
lol i got out with +38 ...now i m short on EU after that test...
  • #2,406
  • May 4, 2011 7:55am May 4, 2011 7:55am
Quoting Evak
Nothing special but there is a free resource here:

http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/fo...hp?f=119&t=718

Interestingly discovery of WRB is due to the author observation of gaps when he was working as a manual chartist then..feeling in missing datas...or not

The keyword here is the "GAP"

JD mention of gaps besides the opening gap he too mention the breakout gaps (usually occurs as LNVs)

Similarly In WRB, Body of candle is consider instead, any bars that exhibits...
ah thank you man..
...
  • #2,407
  • May 4, 2011 8:27am May 4, 2011 8:27am
Quoting Evak
Looks good, i spotted a wyckoff test in 5m ( demand dries.....
Attachment
out with 66 pips just above 4850, regroup..

U hanging on to ur shorts claudia?
  • #2,408
  • Edited 8:56am May 4, 2011 8:32am | Edited 8:56am
Quoting Oxford
Tgw, we could also see that buying climax on H4 yesterday which stopped at the top of the range! As Tom Williams says, when price moves towards a S/R level with uhigh/high volume, probability of breakout increases. I based my trust on that. Now I need to work more on AMT and trust myself more.

Can I share my opinion with you, and take it with a grain of salt. I took something very different from climax bars. I take that to be comm activity. imo, they drove to a known reference area. That tells me they took it there for a reaction. If, imo they were using that volume to buy they would have continued to drive. Really, imo if they were buying they would move price so fast ,they would not have given anyone a chance to get on board (that imo is the game). But they did. Then when people were on board, look climax vol down, they deliberately drove. I take climax bars, imo I take as deliberate comm intent. I try hard to analize the "why". This is just how I interpret these bars. It seems to work for me, and keep me out of certain moves. Maybe you can take some value out of my observations.

If they go through pains to enter the market by breaking large orders into smaller ones to enter or exit to keep this info hidden, I just find it suspect when they allow you to see such deliberate intent. ny action looked like the perfect "fakeout" imo
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,409
  • May 4, 2011 8:38am May 4, 2011 8:38am
Quoting Evak
out with 66 pips just above 4850, regroup..

U hanging on to ur shorts claudia?
yea, still debating on closing one and letting the other one ride, but atm still holding
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,410
  • May 4, 2011 9:17am May 4, 2011 9:17am
NY DIBL looks like the next downside target. 1.48. quite the roller coaster...
Change is the only constant
  • #2,411
  • May 4, 2011 10:34am May 4, 2011 10:34am
If I was feeling brave Id look to reenter @ the ny IBl. Im not taking the trade. Had I closed one of my other shorts I would have, but Im already holding. But Id like to observe, just like to see how it plays out if I had.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,412
  • May 4, 2011 12:03pm May 4, 2011 12:03pm
Quoting mzvega
If I was feeling brave Id look to reenter @ the ny IBl. Im not taking the trade. Had I closed one of my other shorts I would have, but Im already holding. But Id like to observe, just like to see how it plays out if I had.
i took that short at 4865, target is yesterday's VAL ~1.48 - which is also NY DIBL.

What i'm wondering now is if today is a setup for a mid term correction down. For the last 5 days value has not gone up - Value range is 100 pips from 4780 to 4880 (roughly). and there now seems to be more volume on the top rejections vs the bottom rejections. Plus on the 4HR chart, there is a not so bullish looking candle with decreasing volume since last week.

I'll have to double check the charts from the last NFP in April, but if memory serves during that week value did not move either, but there was more volume on the bottom of the value range vs the top.
Change is the only constant
  • #2,413
  • May 4, 2011 1:10pm May 4, 2011 1:10pm
Quoting Evak
Nothing special but there is a free resource here:

http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/fo...hp?f=119&t=718

Interestingly discovery of WRB is due to the author observation of gaps when he was working as a manual chartist then..feeling in missing datas...or not

The keyword here is the "GAP"

JD mention of gaps besides the opening gap he too mention the breakout gaps (usually occurs as LNVs)

Similarly In WRB, Body of candle is consider instead, any bars that exhibits...

FYI...Bundung...typical Deltazone since we still on the topic of that 4750LVN today...

Price have been dancing around on the DZH for awhile, this UT may bring the house down to LVN I suppose...but I bet a test back into prelim supply or UT's close is still in the cards...with a ND i reckon..just too many fail effort to rise lately...(tgw suspicion of the day...
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  • #2,414
  • May 4, 2011 1:38pm May 4, 2011 1:38pm
Quoting tgwhbb
i took that short at 4865, target is yesterday's VAL ~1.48 - which is also NY DIBL.

What i'm wondering now is if today is a setup for a mid term correction down. For the last 5 days value has not gone up - Value range is 100 pips from 4780 to 4880 (roughly). and there now seems to be more volume on the top rejections vs the bottom rejections. Plus on the 4HR chart, there is a not so bullish looking candle with decreasing volume since last week.

I'll have to double check the charts from the last NFP in April, but if memory serves during that...
Good trade Still holding? I just closed 1 of my shorts @1.4826. Just to take something off the table for the day.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,415
  • May 4, 2011 2:16pm May 4, 2011 2:16pm
Quoting mzvega
Good trade Still holding? I just closed 1 of my shorts @1.4826. Just to take something off the table for the day.
closed at 4820 just after NY close spike down...time to prepare dinner was aiming for 4800, but didn't want to risk it while away.
Change is the only constant
  • #2,416
  • May 4, 2011 2:19pm May 4, 2011 2:19pm
Quoting tgwhbb
closed at 4820 just after NY close spike down...time to prepare dinner was aiming for 4800, but didn't want to risk it while away.
I think Ill call it a day.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,417
  • May 4, 2011 5:12pm May 4, 2011 5:12pm
Quoting mzvega
Good trade Still holding? I just closed 1 of my shorts @1.4826. Just to take something off the table for the day.
Good trade Claudia

My observation for last nite break is some people (with deep pocket) trying to break up from the weekly IB range to try to look for new buyer, but they found nothing, and follow with Claudia responsive selling.

Now the next test "might be" mark price down to find any new seller or new buyer down there.

My guess is if they find new seller, price might test last month VAH. @4650
  • #2,418
  • May 5, 2011 12:28am May 5, 2011 12:28am
Vega, thanks for you valuable input. I always read your post carefully with the intention to learn something. I share your opinion. My point was only that the type of action, in comparison to previous bars was of climatic nature. Why they did that, I did not say. But I hope you're right.

What do you think was yesterdays high volume? Is this a sign for strong short?

Quoting mzvega
Can I share my opinion with you, and take it with a grain of salt. I took something very different from climax bars. I take that to be comm activity. imo, they drove to a known reference area. That tells me they took it there for a reaction. If, imo they were using that volume to buy they would have continued to drive. Really, imo if they were buying they would move price so fast ,they would not have given anyone a chance to get on board (that imo is the game). But they did. Then when people were on board, look climax vol down, they deliberately...
  • #2,419
  • May 5, 2011 5:46am May 5, 2011 5:46am
Quoting Oxford
Vega, thanks for you valuable input. I always read your post carefully with the intention to learn something. I share your opinion. My point was only that the type of action, in comparison to previous bars was of climatic nature. Why they did that, I did not say. But I hope you're right.

What do you think was yesterdays high volume? Is this a sign for strong short?
i was just about to write that for me, in order to be convinced of a short bias, today would have to close down for the day. Then EU fell through the floor

picked up a quick 67 pips on the way down, lucky i supose. LAst night I could not hold back on a long from 4815 during asia, target was 4880 (top of yesterday's VA), but alas before I went to bed I had a stop that was unfortunately set to close and only made 27 pips, but would have hit my target if stop was a little more loose... still good so far for today, made up all my losses from this week...many stupid trades unfortunately...emotions got the better of me...
Change is the only constant
  • #2,420
  • May 5, 2011 5:56am May 5, 2011 5:56am
I guess you can consider this NY IB as an open-drive
Change is the only constant
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