james16 Chart Thread | Page 4739 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

Attachments: james16 Chart Thread
Exit Attachments

james16 Chart Thread

  • #94,761
  • May 3, 2011 4:47am May 3, 2011 4:47am
Quoting supremeChaos

135, & 136, well... that is PAST Price action, & we dont trade that. we only trade the present or future PA.
its not a matter of past of future. Its about relativity of BRN in the given context. Lets say you took a trade at 1.00 then (and it turned out to be a losing trade) then can you say hey you were trading into 1.01. Or hey you were trading straight into 1.02 (what about 1.03 or maybe 1.0335?). Then if that was the case SC you can never trade because every time you take a trade there is going to be a number above you which you will be trading into.


Quoting supremeChaos

that BUOB (not a BUOB on IBFX), never triggered on IBFX & Oanda live.
I may understand the discrepancies on the 4H but on the daily is a different story. Do I have to start looking at 24 with 24 different closes to determine on which one it triggered?

I'm just playing devils advocate here. There is still many arguments I can raise, but I think is enough for today, maybe more for the pf. LoL

In hindsight everything makes sense (it all looks perfect), but same cannot be said in the heat of action. In hindsight i understand the above arguments it makes sense from what ppl. see. But can you have said the same thing about 1.37 etc once you saw that bar and the confluence?

Would like to hear Mikes opinion on this specific trade? gtg
  • #94,762
  • May 3, 2011 5:05am May 3, 2011 5:05am
Quoting vasmiza
If that was the case at every price movement I can find confluence. Believe me I can continue changing the EMA until it becomes confluence. 1.37 is not even a BRN (1.35 is 1.4 is 1.45 is). I can also draw a horizontal line at the close of every bar on every feed and come up with additional confluence. You cannot use every whole number as added confluence or every horizontal line you draw. If you do then there is no way in this world that you can ever take a trade. Beacause there is always going to be a whole number above/below you everytime you...

Well, you are entitled to your opinion as is everyone.
It was my opinion when I saw that setup in real time on April 27, http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=94538 that it was not at a true SL, the 365 had been broken to the downside and price was going to retest the 365.
All we have to trade with is our opinions.
  • #94,763
  • May 3, 2011 5:06am May 3, 2011 5:06am
Quote
Do I have to start looking at 24 with 24 different closes to determine on which one it triggered?
no, that's not necessary. it's trader-specific, actually.
Quoting vasmiza
its not a matter of past of future. Its about relativity of BRN in the given context.
I'm just playing devils advocate here. There is still many arguments I can raise, but I think is enough for today..
lol, u are not only playing devil's advocate here, u actually traded it (demo or live, doesnt matter).
i never said anything about 137 being a BRN. u can check my prior posts.
of course, it IS a matter of past or future, since we DONT trade backwards.

i agree, though, that all is relative/things should be taken into context.
& that's where experience comes in: having a good decision making skill & good reaction time (needed to fold a bad/so-so trade as quickly as possible).

u can raise all your arguments here, i'd try to reply. im online almost 10-20 hours daily.
of course, im a senior newbie, so u can disregard my post. i'll leave it here for the others to learn from.
  • #94,764
  • May 3, 2011 5:47am May 3, 2011 5:47am
Interesting tight zone on gu holds strong confluence > FIB/PPZ/Well defined on weekly + price is making higher highs hence this low might be defended. On the other hand there must be some tasty SL under that level but never the less PA around 1.6430-40 will be important.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.PNG Size: 49 KB
  • #94,765
  • May 3, 2011 5:51am May 3, 2011 5:51am
Quoting Greenhaze
Did you take full loss on that one?
Hi GH, yes this was the first trade where I have not used BE or Stop reducing, as like my EC shows it doesn't work for me. Also, I made a backtest on all those losers and saw if I haven't applied BE method but instead waited for either TP or SL to be hit I would have been in profit. but yeah it's easy to IF now... waiting for the next trade.
  • #94,766
  • May 3, 2011 5:58am May 3, 2011 5:58am
Quoting Pinbar
Hey Adi

Too bad man, I know how it feels.


How come you are not using the EMAs.
These FTB to the 365 can be a killer if we not aware of them.
Hi PB, nice to hear from you!

Well I took them off sometime ago only for one reason - they are at the different places on different feeds!!! I just can't cope with this.

And Mike is doing without them, and he is my role model so I took them off too
  • #94,767
  • May 3, 2011 6:05am May 3, 2011 6:05am
Quoting vasmiza
If that was the case at every price movement I can find confluence. Believe me I can continue changing the EMA until it becomes confluence. 1.37 is not even a BRN (1.35 is 1.4 is 1.45 is). I can also draw a horizontal line at the close of every bar on every feed and come up with additional confluence. You cannot use every whole number as added confluence or every horizontal line you draw. If you do then there is no way in this world that you can ever take a trade. Beacause there is always going to be a whole number above/below you everytime you...
Hi Vasmiza,

I agree with you that it just failed.

All I can come up with against taking this setup are:
1) not the major swing low (like SC pointed)
2) on its own swing it was not the swing bar
3) it did not have a strong tail (my backtest show those buobs with tail testing below is better)

EMA, 137 and Chop - I really think strong bar must be able to take them out. Or as you say we will not be able to trade, there is always something against any "best" setup...
  • #94,768
  • May 3, 2011 6:07am May 3, 2011 6:07am
Quoting Greenhaze
Interesting tight zone on gu holds strong confluence > FIB/PPZ/Well defined on weekly + price is making higher highs hence this low might be defended. On the other hand there must be some tasty SL under that level but never the less PA around 1.6430-40 will be important.
hey, how can u see our stops?
  • #94,769
  • May 3, 2011 6:12am May 3, 2011 6:12am
Quoting Adilius07
...
EMA, 137 and Chop - I really think strong bar must be able to take them out. Or as you say we will not be able to trade, there is always something against any "best" setup...
no need for the EMA if that's what u are comfortable doing.

im curious... were u watching the chart when price was near/at/reversed from 137.00?
or was this a 'set & forget' trade for you?
thanks!
  • #94,770
  • May 3, 2011 6:17am May 3, 2011 6:17am
Quoting Adilius07
Hi PB, nice to hear from you!

Well I took them off sometime ago only for one reason - they are at the different places on different feeds!!! I just can't cope with this.

And Mike is doing without them, and he is my role model so I took them off too
Hey Adi, good to see you to.
I have been really busy recently, with one thing and another.
I hear you about the different feeds, I don't switch feeds anymore.

Wonder why Mike doesn't use them when, the big guy certainly does and indeed takes some of his best trades off of them?

Different folks, different strokes, I guess.
  • #94,771
  • May 3, 2011 6:18am May 3, 2011 6:18am
Quoting supremeChaos
no need for the EMA if that's what u are comfortable doing.

im curious... were u watching the chart when price was near/at/reversed from 137.00?
or was this a 'set & forget' trade for you?
thanks!
Yes, it was firt set and forget trade I did.
I had 137 on my chart but was "sure" it will be taken as we were coming off BRN (135) and other factors like BUOB etc..

I was actually planning to pay more attention when price would come closer to 140, lol. So TP was before 140 at the beginning of that upper consolidation before 140.
  • #94,772
  • May 3, 2011 6:31am May 3, 2011 6:31am
Quoting supremeChaos
hey, how can u see our stops?
I ask myself a question, what is the current amount of the open interest? I would guess that this down move happened mainly becouse of large players escaping from their longs after negative Manufacturing PMI hence there might be no real, large short positions to unload at this point. The trend is up and dollar is the weakest major currency right now so i assume they would like to accumulate some longs at better price. If the liquidity will be low enough then shorting into that level (1.6435) only to buy big into those sell stops below last week low sounds like a reasonable idea
Then the open interest will raise. Good excercise is to analyse price on weekly timeframes using the COT data. PA is fun!
  • #94,773
  • May 3, 2011 6:42am May 3, 2011 6:42am
Quoting Adilius07
Yes, it was first set and forget trade I did.
I had 137 on my chart but was "sure" it will be taken as we were coming off BRN (135) and other factors like BUOB etc..
I was actually planning to pay more attention when price would come closer to 140...
i see, that explains it.
if u have enough time, try to monitor trades more.

maybe u can, back/forward test a trade in 2 ways:
1. set & forget
2. active/semi-active trade management

or u can use alerts.
for example, set alerts at//near/prior 137.00 & 140.00 etc


also, what was the BUOB high on your chart & your entry price? i cant tell from your chart whether u used a +/-5 to 10pip entry buffer from the BUOB. thanks


Quoting Greenhaze
I ask myself a question..
oh, i was just kidding around,
so i appreciate your reply!
  • #94,774
  • May 3, 2011 6:57am May 3, 2011 6:57am
Quoting supremeChaos
oh, i was just kidding around,
so i appreciate your reply!
DOH!...You welcome
  • #94,775
  • May 3, 2011 6:57am May 3, 2011 6:57am
Quoting supremeChaos
i see, that explains it.
if u have enough time, try to monitor trades more.

maybe u can, back/forward test a trade in 2 ways:
1. set & forget
2. active/semi-active trade management
Yes thanks SC, I will go ahead and try set&forget for the next month.

The high of the BUOB was 136.68 (fxpro) my entry was 136.78.
So 10 pips above Daily bar as I do. For H4 I usually use 3-5 pips buffer.
  • #94,776
  • May 3, 2011 7:21am May 3, 2011 7:21am
Quoting supremeChaos
no, that's not necessary. it's trader-specific, actually.

lol, u are not only playing devil's advocate here, u actually traded it (demo or live, doesnt matter).
i never said anything about 137 being a BRN. u can check my prior posts.
of course, it IS a matter of past or future, since we DONT trade backwards.

i agree, though, that all is relative/things should be taken into context.
& that's where experience comes in: having a good decision making skill & good reaction time (needed to fold a bad/so-so trade as quickly as possible).

u can...
You caught me there SC. I took the trade and was letting out some steam after I didn't get the eventual reversal I was expecting.

One thing people must understand is that the markets are very fluid. There is no right or wrong (hence we are discretionary traders). So you must accept losers, they are inevitable. No matter how good of a trader you are you will get eventually lose (hence your must following your money management every time you trade)

An A+ setup for you may not even be worth a look for someone else. Once again in hindsight everything is hubbly bubbly, it all looks good. But in reality it is not that easy. You can always find reasons why not to take a trade. I challenge everyone: Post any chart you want (it can be the A+ of all A pluses) and I will find you a support line, or a major EMA or different close on another feed, or some sort of congestion, or some other reason why you should not take the trade.

The only time this will not happen is when you exceed all points of gravity and come to a point where you can hold onto the trade forever (at this point there will be no BRN stopping you, no traffic, no boxing effects). You can shoot straight for the stars
  • #94,777
  • May 3, 2011 7:56am May 3, 2011 7:56am
Quoting Adilius07
Another failure for me...probably some line I didn't see again
I took a full bar loss(one of the few for me this year) on this one too Adi.

I will say this though looking back that this bar was stuck more sideways, but I was playing it based off that 135 level being hugely significant. Losses happen for me every month, just so happens to be at the first of the month this time

Best
Mike
  • #94,778
  • May 3, 2011 8:02am May 3, 2011 8:02am
Quoting vasmiza
You caught me there SC. I took the trade and was letting out some steam after I didn't get the eventual reversal I was expecting.

One thing people must understand is that the markets are very fluid. There is no right or wrong (hence we are discretionary traders). So you must accept losers, they are inevitable. No matter how good of a trader you are you will get eventually lose (hence your must following your money management every time you trade)

An A+ setup for you may not even be worth a look for someone else. Once again in hindsight everything...
Yep the 137 was certainly the very FTA, but you have to decide on your style. Mine is often that I am so picky the FTA become a trade mgmt area. Unlike greenhaze I didn't move my stop at this point as I believed very strongly in the area(as opposed to any good story , silly me). I took a full bar loss, it happens. Again what's your style as a trader is going to dictate your approach to trade mgmt.

Never get to high during wins, or too low during losses, otherwise you will make bad decisions after BOTH. Wins and losses come and go, trust me.

Best
Mike
  • #94,779
  • May 3, 2011 8:03am May 3, 2011 8:03am
Quoting mbqb11
I took a full bar loss(one of the few for me this year) on this one too Adi.

I will say this though looking back that this bar was stuck more sideways, but I was playing it based off that 135 level being hugely significant. Losses happen for me every month, just so happens to be at the first of the month this time

Best
Mike
Hi Mike,

Oh so really I will just forget it and go ahead with the next one!

Happy to hear you took the same trade (don't confuse with me being happy that you had a loss too, lol ) I just was really worried that something is wrong with me if I take only loser setups when everyone else seem to profit well... so yeah just a loss who cares, I need to improve my overall trading and losses will happen less and less...
  • #94,780
  • May 3, 2011 8:05am May 3, 2011 8:05am
Quoting Pinbar
Hey Adi, good to see you to.
I have been really busy recently, with one thing and another.
I hear you about the different feeds, I don't switch feeds anymore.

Wonder why Mike doesn't use them when, the big guy certainly does and indeed takes some of his best trades off of them?

Different folks, different strokes, I guess.
I simply removed them(even after years of using them, mostly the longer term ones) b/c I could see the story without them. MAs are not magic, think of them as guidelines. My guidelines over time have become more focused on S/R, Round numbers/ Story , Bars, etc. So I removed them b/c eventually they were not adding value to my trading. That does NOT mean someone else should remove them. At the end of the day we want to keep anything that adds value to our trading. For some this is a bollinger band, a moving avg, Rsi vs a MACD etc. Remember the true power of what we do here can be added to anything you are comfortable with. I simply took and use the things that are most for me. This doesn't mean others have to use everything I do. It's best to take the things that one is most comfortable with as this will give you the confidence in what you are doing(which plays off my previous post).

Take care
Mike
74 traders viewing now