NZD/USD

Loonie,Oz & KIWI are commodity $$$$.

US$ fundamentals reported as weak (BIG players moving money out of US$).

Thought Aud floods would kill Oz (wrong)
Thought NZ quake would kill kiwi (wrong)

Stopped thinking & followed trend:nerd:grin:on't make a whole bunch per trade (my choice) however; I pad my account consistently.

Yeah, I actually dumped my AUS trade a while back, but looking at things figured the NZD would turn bearish, now wrong, however I thought the last earthquake would give the pair a moment to pause and start heading down...oh well wait and see...good luck

To funny my thoughts also...., well we have some news in a few minutes lets see if it will move the pair, last BZ confidence was down a bit, but the pair didn't reverse.

NBNZ Business Confidence
14.2-8.7

DO YOU BELIEVE THIS, i DON'T

I have been playing around with overlaid charts this year. So here is me going public with a bit of a different approach:
There is something interesting happening on the AUDNZDUSD chart. (sorry for the bad picture quality, it's made with PAINT, the awesome program that comes with your Windows operating system - download the original picture for better viewing - 2MBs)

I am currently short the NZDUSD (@.8070, and the AUDUSD @ 1.07 (ouch!), while long on the AUDNZD (@ 1.34) The weighting is 1:1:4, so I am banking mainly on the AUDNZD up move while also putting some money to my conviction that the NZDUSD and AUDUSD will give up their current bull run in the next two weeks (preferably this week).

Stops are generic 300(0) pips, but I will close out all positions if the pattern fails or take profit at the point of convergence. On the AUDNZD chart, I expect that convergence would be around 1.36 or 1.38.

Some other notes:
No, I don't have a reliable back-testing statistic, partly because this takes hours to do and analyze. This is the first time I am trading this in my live account, so to-date, I have neither lost nor made money following this strategy.

http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/1778/audnzdusd.png

Looks like a nice place to buy here around .8000
Shame banana ben has to speak later.
Bought a little at .8007,might jump
back out quick though.

Strange down move just hit my TP stop
at .8045.
Oh well 38 pips is better than a poke
in the eye with a sharp stick.

Will look again tomorrow.

Here's a history lesson and my reasons for being bearish on the NZD as of the beginning of this week:

In 2007, the bull topped out at .75 in April for a 250 pips pullback to .725.
In 2008, the bull started April at .785 to end at .777, leading into the bear down to .49 (! hello financial crisis).
In 2009, a bear April was again the "catalyst" that confirmed the new bull, started .56 to end at .57.
For those of us trading last year, need I remind you of April 2010 and the rollercoaster ride that followed in May? April 30 formed top at .73, only to drop 750 pips to .656.
In April 2011, we are topping out at .81...
If you look at daily charts from 2007 and 2010, this looks hauntingly familiar.

My open trade:
Sell NZDUSD @ 0.8070, stop 0.8170, target 0.7820.

looks like you are doing fine if you are still in the trade.

I'm long again at .8000,stop already at BE.
.8000 looks like the base on a 4 hr chart
for the next up move,.8200+ still the target.

Closing half of this play for 60 pips.8060.Weekend coming.
SL plus 15 at .8015,although .8050
looks like it could hold any down move,
1 hour closes will be key.

I'm going to close the rest at .8090
for 90 pips and reset next week.
Nice little run that.

Not only was I engaged to a position, but now I'm married to a couple of shorts....looks like we will see longs until the 8220-30 area, would be a nice place to short, however will attempt long from here once the market opens for that target area.

Edit: I just want to add, before I get jumped on by the professional traders; yes I'm deep under water on two trades and holding, small lots, no big deal, now looking to add another short position when the opportunity arrives, no big deal to me and I'm scalping to cover my cost while building my account, not the proper way to do things, so if your new, don't listen to me or marry trades unless you have deep pockets and can afford to sit and wait or it is true love and you really want to get married ....

It's a big news week for the Kiwi. I think there is a safe scalp now on a short down to the big round number. I just closed part of my earlier mentioned trade for 27 pips and just opened another short with a stop above our ultimate high and a target down to .7990. So let's test that low...

Depending on the price action after the news on Tuesday evening (New York) which is Wednesday morning in Christchurch, we will either see a resumption of the uptrend, or a prolonged counter-trend move. Trading could remain choppy throughout the week as any lower low will continue to find buyers.

If you take into account the USD is oversold, and its counterpart the EUR is showing signs of weakness (2 day pullback there?), then with an expected USD strengthening, I am putting money on the prolonged counter-trend move.

Also, I do believe history is repeating itself, referencing April 2007.
And also, I do think that the NZD is the driving force on the way back to converge the AUDNZDUSD chart that I posted earlier.

Just one man's opinion though, like iono said, let's not get married...

My chart on NZDUSD, personally missed short option today at upward trend line

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lyjY59_0ft...trend_line.png

So I was wrong to go short the last 2 days. A new higher high for the current pattern, I didn't see that coming! I thought the opposite would happen...

However:
That bearish entrenchment candle after the strong bull candle, coupled with the spike in volume indicated to me that there is big money, or the so-called "smart money", ready to sell now. So I remain a bear, I don't think .82 is in the making anymore for the next 2 weeks.

Come to look at it, today's daily candle is going to be a bear candle after all...

Yup and now I sit and stare at my chart; buy the dip or wait for pull back and go short.....I may enter at around 8030 buy to my pivot area 8068 see how it reacts from there to turn around and short.

Buy @ 8046 TP 8066 SL 8028 with the time of day this may be the right opportunity for a quick scalp up, although my 60 sma always acts as a nice road block if there is no real momentum behind a move....wait and see

Oh yeahhhhh, that's what I'm talk'n about yeah baby hit my stop