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  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 12:56pm Apr 28, 2011 3:20am | Edited 12:56pm
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Time hides Nothing
  • #2
  • Apr 28, 2011 3:25am Apr 28, 2011 3:25am
cause it doesnt really matter

by the time data is released it most likely is reflected in the price already, however major currency policy changes or releases are something to be aware of
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #3
  • Apr 28, 2011 3:49am Apr 28, 2011 3:49am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Explain me this then... If everything is already priced in why does the market react to news?
Define react. In the bigger picture, a 100-150 pip spike doesn't really mean anything. There are few news-release that change the overall outlook.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #4
  • Apr 28, 2011 3:51am Apr 28, 2011 3:51am
i guess you are obsessing about this.

however, there are news and there are NEWS,

rate hikes
monetary policies
quantitive easing

are all very important they give you the direction of the currency
and other news like unemployement, cpi etc gives you spikes

i rather make pips on the direction of the trend, than a lucky spike
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #5
  • Apr 28, 2011 4:07am Apr 28, 2011 4:07am
if you combine technical and fundamentals you gain an edge

but my advice is, concern yourself with the direction of the USD.

and as for other fundamentals all you need is, big news, overall economic figures, like interest rates, monetary policies, gdp, commodity prices and the like.

small news, new figures are good to read but dont worry to much, there is news every day, if its not big news it really doesnt matter.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #6
  • Apr 28, 2011 4:12am Apr 28, 2011 4:12am
These releases vary so much - and you're right to point out revisions - it's difficult to use just fundamentals to trade. But every now and then a whopping big doozy comes along, I'm sure you agree. They're the ones to look out for. Market expecting it to go up? Figures show it down... Everyone scrambling for new positions.
Gone to a better place
  • #7
  • Apr 28, 2011 4:33am Apr 28, 2011 4:33am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Ok well if everything is priced in why do the banks pull their liquidity out on news announcements? Why would they fear the reaction?

By react I mean why are peoples actions influenced by news items if the numbers are already priced in?
Never heard of banks pulling out their money before news-release. Only bankers I know on the FX desk had 1 task to focus on; to hunt down their clients stops when possible.

Let's take eur/usd. Since January it have been in a strong uptrend. Even though we've seen plenty of bad news for the Euro, it have only made an impact on intraday basis (at best), with no significant impact on the long-term. I have yet to see any quantified research saying the opposite.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #8
  • Apr 28, 2011 4:55am Apr 28, 2011 4:55am
Is it me or is the Ff calendar sometimes a bit slow?
  • #9
  • Apr 28, 2011 5:43am Apr 28, 2011 5:43am
Quoting CindyXXXX
FFS

I just realized my nights work of recording all of this years news numbers in a spreadsheet has gone by the actual number and not the revised number, so they're all wrong.... fuuuuuk

*Advice needed:

To track basic economic measures would recording the initial numbers suffice or should I get the revised numbers instead?>

What would Jesus do?
do yourself a favour and look at derk's or hanover's ffcal indi... once you know how to use their stuff you can puke a spreadsheet with the last few years of the factory's calendar data.

only problem is stupid government knobhead bullshit like daylight savings time affecting all the time values at certain times of year when dst shifts in and out... so it's still a battle.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #10
  • Apr 28, 2011 6:14am Apr 28, 2011 6:14am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Hi

I've lately been tracking some fundamentals and taking the numbers from the FF calendar however it seems when the new number comes out every time the "previous" number is different to the number I recorded when that "previous" number came out... (Obviously cause its been revised)

do the numbers almost always get revised to something different? I'm noticing almost EVERY number is different from the initial release (every number seems to get revised)

If so, when do the revisions take place and do these have the same market impact as the...
Most numbers are revised after release. The revisions are announced when new numbers are announced. For example, NFP numbers are announced once a month and revisions occur at the same time; claims are announced weekly and revisions occur then, too. Revisions occur because there are lags in data collection, and often when numbers are released the number includes estimates (because actual data reporting is not complete). That is why you can see large swings in data when data is released. NFP gets revisions that go back several months, as better information is made available, and usually once a year, the NFP gets an annual revision that can add or subtract hundreds of thousands of jobs. The revisions do matter and can have an impact. For example, if expectations are for Retail Sales to increase by .5%, but it comes in at .4%, analysts look to the revised figures to see if the .1% miss can be made up in previous months. This explains why the headline release can say one thing (good or bad news), but market reaction does something different (revised numbers tell a more complete story and cause the market to do something that the headline figure would suggest).
  • #11
  • Apr 28, 2011 6:19am Apr 28, 2011 6:19am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Hi Nubcake

Sweet got a link for that one?
jeez, lazy stooge : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=16364
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #12
  • Last Post: Apr 28, 2011 7:06am Apr 28, 2011 7:06am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Thanks GEfx thats all I wanted to know. Champion

Do you believe in the notion though that even if a news figure or the overall numbers point north it doesn't necessarily mean that the currency will appreciate, it may just as well give an astute buyer the chance to sell to the wave of new buyers that buy on that news?

So although it "should" rally because this buyer or buyers that have supported the up trend take the opportunity to dump their holding its actually enough to drive prices down as they take the opportunity to sell and take profits....
Well, maybe sometimes. I think a lot goes into that kind of analysis, and you never really know who is driving the counter-intuitive move (is it profit taking or a central bank instilling order to the market?) As a trader, I look for the patterns and trade them to targets; as an economist, I sit back and find rational meaning to the move. It's sometime my own little hell, but I persevere - lol.
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