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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #2,101
  • Apr 26, 2011 5:36pm Apr 26, 2011 5:36pm
Quoting Bilstein
My wife says she'll never make another call so her 1.4495 buy call can be her best call ever.
LOL!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,102
  • Apr 26, 2011 5:39pm Apr 26, 2011 5:39pm
Quoting mzvega
Re: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1936

I was was hoping to run an idea of vol. for your IB indi. Might it be possible? Or could you give me some tips to figure it out?
interesting, i'll look into adding volume averages, shouldn't be too difficult. also plan on adding the weekly IB average.
Change is the only constant
  • #2,103
  • Apr 26, 2011 5:48pm Apr 26, 2011 5:48pm
Quoting tgwhbb
interesting, i'll look into adding volume averages, shouldn't be too difficult. also plan on adding the weekly IB average.
I found the idea interesting, too. I thought it was worth observing. How much trading vol. in the first hours range should give clues to possibly range, volitiity, or conviction. Like a wide session IB with low vol., what type of trading follows?, or narrow IB on high vol.? Above or below avg. vol. etc.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,104
  • Apr 26, 2011 5:57pm Apr 26, 2011 5:57pm
Quoting mzvega
I found the idea interesting, too. I thought it was worth observing. How much trading vol. in the first hours range should give clues to possibly range, volitiity, or conviction. Like a wide session IB with low vol., what type of trading follows?, or narrow IB on high vol.? Above or below avg. vol. etc.


i thought a wider IB indicates a wide price acceptance and therefore more likely that price remains within the IB boundaries, but last week's weekly IB at 250 pips obviously does not comply with that...will be interesting to analyze the volume. I'll try to do that this week...
Change is the only constant
  • #2,105
  • Edited 6:12pm Apr 26, 2011 6:02pm | Edited 6:12pm
Quoting tgwhbb
However, apparently there's talk of a US rate hike, and we're close to 1.47 which is the long term HVN so a new long is risky IMO as i'd expect to see a bounce at 1.47

Well, when i started writing the post, EU was around 4650...and when I finished writing the above it hit 1.47...given the time of day it smells like a fake up move...
so, we got the bounce at 1.47, now what? For me, i'm waiting to see if value builds around the circled area. If it does, then i'll look for a long around today's VAH/POC ~4650.

Bandung & Bilstein, this latest indicator rocks!
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Change is the only constant
  • #2,106
  • Apr 26, 2011 6:16pm Apr 26, 2011 6:16pm
While i vacation I read James Dalton's book, Markets in Profile. There was an interesting comment on the 'b' shape in there that caught my attention. A 'b' shape profile is indicative of long liquidation, but James also mentions that the shape occurs due to both long liquidations and NEW long positions of different timeframe buyers.

Now the question that's been bugging me is wether the location of the b profile matters. With the current spike up on EU, the top half of the profile looks like a 'b' shape, so does that mean more buying has occured? Or would the shape be more relevant if it were at the bottom of a retracement?
Change is the only constant
  • #2,107
  • Apr 26, 2011 6:17pm Apr 26, 2011 6:17pm
hey guys/gals,

Sorry to steal the thread with this post,
Does anyone have intel on when the next FED meeting/FOMC with possible indication of a interest rate increase for the US?
  • #2,108
  • Apr 26, 2011 6:39pm Apr 26, 2011 6:39pm
Quoting tgwhbb
While i vacation I read James Dalton's book, Markets in Profile. There was an interesting comment on the 'b' shape in there that caught my attention. A 'b' shape profile is indicative of long liquidation, but James also mentions that the shape occurs due to both long liquidations and NEW long positions of different timeframe buyers.

Now the question that's been bugging me is wether the location of the b profile matters. With the current spike up on EU, the top half of the profile looks like a 'b' shape, so does that mean more buying has occured?...
From some of the things Ive studied from daltons videos, if i have interpreted correctly, dalton often considers a double dist., the second dist. as a single profile, if there has been a change of trend. I think there is some subjectivity, to that being a "double dist. profile" is not necessarly, a trend day, as in "double dist. trend day" im not sure which he may have refered to. Also, just food for thought, just like the "onetimeframing" concept it applies to longer term short covering and long liquidation. Example: you can have a series days of higher value days, but the profiles are p shaped, its longterm tf short covering over a period of a few days. I hope I explained ok, as to my interpretation.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,109
  • Apr 26, 2011 7:47pm Apr 26, 2011 7:47pm
Any one take the round number short in the euro. Decent r/r targeting POC of 4.26 at 1.4635.
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  • #2,110
  • Apr 26, 2011 7:58pm Apr 26, 2011 7:58pm
After B period, if the seller follows through, could be initiative selling though last night, the same formation happened; prices rotated within a small range and gained acceptance before the buyer came in and slayed the beast. Shorts can be profitable right now but I'm more waiting in the weeds for an opportunity to buy.

  • #2,111
  • Apr 26, 2011 8:04pm Apr 26, 2011 8:04pm
Quoting Bilstein
After B period, if the seller follows through, could be initiative selling though last night, the same formation happened; prices rotated within a small range and gained acceptance before the buyer came in and slayed the beast. Shorts can be profitable right now but I'm more waiting in the weeds for an opportunity to buy.

Be careful buying into this strength on fomc day unless its a very quick scalp. FOMC has to say something about inflation risk picking up. That may be dollar positive. My experience tells me to short the euro but definitely can be wrong POC of 4.25 is a wide open target waiting to be hit soon around 1.4580
  • #2,112
  • Apr 26, 2011 8:08pm Apr 26, 2011 8:08pm
Quoting Bilstein
Just to reaffirm yes, if you change the time frame of your chart from 30 min to anything else) the rotational factor value will change. The reason is because it assigns the rotational value by bars passed sine the beginning of the day (whatever your day start hour is). Market Profile is designed for 30 min charts so I just leave the background chart set to 30m but if you look at 1 hour or 4 hour the indicator will count the RF based on those bars. There are less 4 hour bars in a day than 30 min bars so the RF will be different. Same thing if you're...
I am so glad you brought that to my attention! I aready started using those rf#'s. (Back to the drawing board) So do you think gauging RF for higher tf profiles, wont be possible? or if I apply the for ex: the wk profile to the 30m tf and use the RF from that chart will the rf be accurate for the wk profile? Or do you think theres a tf that I will have to use as "proxy" or in "lieu" that will give around or about the same RF info for the higher tf profiles?
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,113
  • Apr 26, 2011 8:10pm Apr 26, 2011 8:10pm
Anyone know how to move the box with those pink and blue little circles and other data so it doesn't interfere with the current days profile. Thanks in advance!!!
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  • #2,114
  • Apr 26, 2011 8:16pm Apr 26, 2011 8:16pm
Quoting Guerrillawar
Anyone know how to move the box with those pink and blue little circles and other data so it doesn't interfere with the current days profile. Thanks in advance!!!
Change the # in the infocorner box
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,115
  • Apr 26, 2011 8:25pm Apr 26, 2011 8:25pm
Quoting mzvega
Change the # in the infocorner box
Thank you!!!! its a lot better when its moved.
  • #2,116
  • Apr 26, 2011 8:29pm Apr 26, 2011 8:29pm
Quoting mzvega
I am so glad you brought that to my attention! I aready started using those rf#'s. (Back to the drawing board) So do you think gauging RF for higher tf profiles, wont be possible? or if I apply the for ex: the wk profile to the 30m tf and use the RF from that chart will the rf be accurate for the wk profile? Or do you think theres a tf that I will have to use as "proxy" or in "lieu" that will give around or about the same RF info for the higher tf profiles?
You can keep the chart TF on 30 mins. The code uses the start bar and end bar for the profiles. Essentially:

If you're looking at daily profiles, it starts calculating the RF from the start of the day until the end of the day, the RF will be calculated using whatever time frame you set the chart to but will still be based on the start and end of the day.

If you're looking at weekly profiles, it will do the same thing. Bandung's code is set up for the weekly profiles to have a start point and an end point. This week's RF, for example will start from Sunday and go to right now. If you change the chart periodicity it will still start calculating from Monday but the RF total will change because of the periodicity change.

Simply put, there are more 5 min bars than there are 30 min bars and there are less 4 hour bars than there are 30 min bars, for example. I suppose one could toy with the periodicity as a smaller TF based RF may or may not be accurate. *shrug* Never tried it myself, I just leave everything on 30M for simplicity sake.
  • #2,117
  • Edited 8:46pm Apr 26, 2011 8:41pm | Edited 8:46pm
Quoting Bilstein
You can keep the chart TF on 30 mins. The code uses the start bar and end bar for the profiles. Essentially:

If you're looking at daily profiles, it starts calculating the RF from the start of the day until the end of the day, the RF will be calculated using whatever time frame you set the chart to but will still be based on the start and end of the day.

If you're looking at weekly profiles, it will do the same thing. Bandung's code is set up for the weekly profiles to have a start point and an end point. This week's RF, for example will start...
Thanks for the explanation! I have a better understanding, now. Now I have something to ponder. Ill have to research this more. Thanxs, your a great help! Im thinking most MP concepts are based on data from 30m tf. Im thinking the higher tf rf# are would be best based off that. Again thank you!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,118
  • Edited Apr 27, 2011 7:20am Apr 26, 2011 8:47pm | Edited Apr 27, 2011 7:20am
I'm tryin!

I've never tried using a lower TF chart. I was thinking about it, whether you set the periodicity to 1 min or 4 hours the RF will still be the RF for profile period you're looking at. You just got me thinking whether or not a lower periodicity RF would be more or less accurate. Hmm..

I've always used it on 30 mins because that's how I learned it.
  • #2,119
  • Apr 26, 2011 9:00pm Apr 26, 2011 9:00pm
Interesting that the market (usdchf) that was the driver of the dollar weakness during the early asia session. Is well bid now and on the way to 4.26 key levels. I think is worth watching.
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  • #2,120
  • Apr 26, 2011 9:31pm Apr 26, 2011 9:31pm
Quoting Guerrillawar
Be careful buying into this strength on fomc day unless its a very quick scalp. FOMC has to say something about inflation risk picking up. That may be dollar positive. My experience tells me to short the euro but definitely can be wrong POC of 4.25 is a wide open target waiting to be hit soon around 1.4580
I prefer to wait for d pull back after fomc, if d profile shape is right, may be another b shape, will buy again.
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