AUD/USD

No stop loss?

Thanks,

There is no trade without SL. This trade is a special for long terme. I don't know how exact week it could take to achieve target. Be careful, this trade is not to follow with high leverage and maximum lots. TP is more than 1100 pips, than i entered for ratio at 1:2 in an absolute calculation (but reality is very different). If lost, it will not be too much money, even it looks like some hundreds pips which has no big influence on the account, and here the ratio is simple. If begin to win, then pyramiding and going for higher leverage (compound with other account) to maximize money using only trade return until TP, and here it will be interesting, because in the final level, ratio is more more higher than 1:2.

Take care, bull is still the king, but begins to become weak, even it looks like stronger last days. I do not know when return will begin, but we enter the zone according to daily, weekly and monthly charts ONLY (you can refer to my last chart to analyze by yourself Aussie reaction at every level). That's why i prefer enter to be in the market to not loose position.

Between, if i see a good signal to long, i will not hesitate to enter, but this will be with lower time frames, taking care about the real direction of the currency.

If i could summurize, i could say that it is like trading two different currencies, one for long term low leverage, high SL, high TP and big time frame, (style of some big money, even i am not lol), and the second is totaly opposite of the first, closed SL as possible, less TP, low time frame and high leverage.


Wish to all green pips and have nice long week-end.

Just a little chart, show us several levels to watch carefully, based on fibos and historical High-low point

The weekly candle close above another resistance line (1.0687, low in 1980(!!!), and level broked and rejected in march and may 1982) We need to consider that this area was never visited again in these 30 years.

For more data, is easy to see in Monthly a beatiful inverted H&S formation with shoulders levels at 0.5970 (left) and 0.6000 (right) and Head level in the historical low in 0.4770 area. Since the neck base (0.8000 area) was broken and confirmed, we can asume price would search the highs again (1.19 area),

The areas to test are:
the break of 1.0690 for a little reverse till mayor drive trendeline,
resistances area at 1.0950, strong at 1.10 and 1.1080, minor at 1.1180, strong at 1.1280, strong at 1.1430 area and no important resistance areas till 1.1896 (all time High)...

I think we will only see minor reversals till mayor trendline for a very long time, cause if i don't count bad, we are in the 3º elliot, such wave may drive the pair till some place in between 1.35, 1.40 or 1.4220.

Cheers
Cesar

Basically, the resistance is unknown. Of course, you can use Elliott Wave, Fibo or Gann to predict. Anyway, I am not fan of these things.

My concern is where is the potential support. In my opinion, the potential support may be 1.0581.

two areas of support
1) 1.05
2) 1.02

I dont see it going much lower than #1, however, if it hits #2, strong buy.

Just wanted to share my chart with yall and the levels that I feel are important that I am basing my trades off of. As shown by my chart I was very prematurely short and am continuing to hold as I am not over-leveraged and this is a long term position for me.

What I am looking for in the short term is a break of and failed retest of 1.0676 area which will lead to good near term support of the 1.0580 level with an ascending trendline a few pips higher.

If I were to take on anymore short positions based on this chart I would again look for a failed retest of the 1.0580 level as well as a test of the upward trendline.

From there I would look for the 1.0420 to provide short term support and then hopefully reach the 1.02 level for my personal take profit as that would be a significant retrace in an upwardly trending market. I would only continue to hold short if the US were to increase interest rates or if Australia were to decrease rates disrupting the insanely profitable carry trade.

I do not anticipate this to happen immediately and am still very much open to the possibility that this pair could continue on towards the 1.10 level.

The next break of 1.07750,

I don't believe it will have the same run as the last one, and the bears will offer stiffer opposition to the bull run between 1.0850 through to 1.0880, even though the AUD is obviously bullish on higher timeframes.

1.0850 - 1.0880 the sell orders will at least cause a retracement, I believe.

Thanks for that.... Some really useful info in your post there....

But do you believe that pre-electronic trading (such as the times when governments had agreements on dollar values) will have a bearing on quote movement?

If you do, I think that 1.0880 area will have an affect on price action...

Is it going to retrace to 1.0600 or lower again ?

If that were directed at me.....

I believe that if it does not break 1.07739 1st, the 2 possible retracement values are:
1.0645 - 1.0655 (10 pip range)
Or
1.0608 - 1.0580 (28 pip range)

If it breaks 1.07739 1st I believe a target of 1.0840 - 1.0880 is possible.

good R:R for short ?
good trading

to me it looks like it is going up. they seem to be trading the australian cpi, which will be released later in the night, already. to some, the numbers are known much much earlier...

ty

This pair is on a BULL rush. Careful not to SHORT it and CPI is about to be released, many fake outs!

1.0680 hold by now as i expected due to these strong bull run (the pair touch this area just 3 times before 81-82).
1.0770 broken; if there is any, the retest of the area must to hold to see the target of the 4h bull flag at around 1.10...
Some Supports: 1.0770; 1,0680; 1.0580
Some Resistances: 1.080; 1.0850;1.0950;1.10

This up move before CPI is starting to get scary... I'm thinking if report is good we could see 1.10 within the end of the session.

Bring it on. CPI numbers beat estimates; the AUD just popped 30 pips.

the problem is that we have nothing to compare to!!!

it doesnt want to break 1.085

i just shorted at 1.0846