Bandung, hate to be a nag but, think you can share the multicolored version for the larger profiles?
Or at least the code?
...
Auction Market Theory and Market Profile
- #2,042
- Apr 21, 2011 2:46am Apr 21, 2011 2:46am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #2,043
- Apr 21, 2011 2:56am Apr 21, 2011 2:56am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
So far holding above the 2010 high of 1.4578 and well above this week's DVA........
Trading Levels with WRBs
I'm still confuse with MP, although mzvega had already give great e-book(Thx very much mzvega 
,
and thx a lot to Bandung, T and others especillay TS) , and please give your opinion to this picture
http://uploadpic.org/storage/2011/th...mFrqCevy64.gif
will EU make a new bell curve? and sorry about my poor english...
,and thx a lot to Bandung, T and others especillay TS
) , and please give your opinion to this picture http://uploadpic.org/storage/2011/th...mFrqCevy64.gif
will EU make a new bell curve? and sorry about my poor english...
- #2,049
- Apr 25, 2011 2:03pm Apr 25, 2011 2:03pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,879 Posts
Again my thanks to Bandung, Bilstein,Tgwhbb
With the new indicators and the addition of spread, rotation factor, vol., quality of close, I’ve been busy trying to visually set up my charts. Also at the beginning of the year I too began to record and keep data for MP analysis, unfortunately I didn’t have “spread, rotation factor, vol., quality of close(Thanx Bil), excess (tail) info” so now I’m also busy updating all my back data. During all this, I keep telling myself MP is a “Decision making tool”. And now that I have all this market generated info, what do I do with it? How do I organize it? What questions about market sentiment do I want to ask this data? I have lots of ideas. Do you?
With the addition of spread, rotation factor, excess (tails), vol., quality of close. So much info, I was hoping someone might share their ideas or opinions about how to best organize this data, what you feel is worth tracking, IMO I think any ideas are worth observation. For example Judging if the OTF participants are long or short by comparing –RF vs. +RF, buy tails vs. sell tails, higher VA days vs. lower VA days, over a given sample of days, a running total of certain info ,etc. Any thoughts?
With the new indicators and the addition of spread, rotation factor, vol., quality of close, I’ve been busy trying to visually set up my charts. Also at the beginning of the year I too began to record and keep data for MP analysis, unfortunately I didn’t have “spread, rotation factor, vol., quality of close(Thanx Bil), excess (tail) info” so now I’m also busy updating all my back data. During all this, I keep telling myself MP is a “Decision making tool”. And now that I have all this market generated info, what do I do with it? How do I organize it? What questions about market sentiment do I want to ask this data? I have lots of ideas. Do you?
With the addition of spread, rotation factor, excess (tails), vol., quality of close. So much info, I was hoping someone might share their ideas or opinions about how to best organize this data, what you feel is worth tracking, IMO I think any ideas are worth observation. For example Judging if the OTF participants are long or short by comparing –RF vs. +RF, buy tails vs. sell tails, higher VA days vs. lower VA days, over a given sample of days, a running total of certain info ,etc. Any thoughts?
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
- #2,050
- Apr 25, 2011 5:24pm Apr 25, 2011 5:24pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,879 Posts
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
- #2,051
- Apr 25, 2011 6:00pm Apr 25, 2011 6:00pm
- | Joined May 2010 | Status: Day by Day | 1,004 Posts
hello everyone! back from vacation, and it looks like I missed quite a week last week...almost 500 pips range, wow!
weekly profiles still looking bullish with no overlapping VA's in the last few weeks. Monthly profile also looking bullish with increasing value and no overlapping VA yet either. It will be interesting to see where we close on Friday (month's end) as EU is currently above April's VAH. My target is still 1.47 which is looking quite realistic this week, but i'm thinking a bounce around 1.45 tomorrow to set the weekly IB low will come first as today's NY session built value lower than Tokyo and London.
EDIT: Watch out, this is my post #666...a warning sign perhaps
weekly profiles still looking bullish with no overlapping VA's in the last few weeks. Monthly profile also looking bullish with increasing value and no overlapping VA yet either. It will be interesting to see where we close on Friday (month's end) as EU is currently above April's VAH. My target is still 1.47 which is looking quite realistic this week, but i'm thinking a bounce around 1.45 tomorrow to set the weekly IB low will come first as today's NY session built value lower than Tokyo and London.
EDIT: Watch out, this is my post #666...a warning sign perhaps
Change is the only constant
- #2,052
- Apr 25, 2011 6:44pm Apr 25, 2011 6:44pm
Again my thanks to Bandung, Bilstein,Tgwhbb
With the new indicators and the addition of spread, rotation factor, vol., quality of close, I’ve been busy trying to visually set up my charts. Also at the beginning of the year I too began to record and keep data for MP analysis, unfortunately I didn’t have “spread, rotation factor, vol., quality of close(Thanx Bil), excess (tail) info” so now I’m also busy updating all my back data. During all this, I keep telling myself MP is a “Decision making tool”. And now that I have all this market...
I work full-time so most of the week, the only information I have to work with is the end-of-day profile and data - this is why I keep a record. My method involves speculating as to who was dominant in the market for the day and how far are buyers and sellers willing to let prices go before one or the other loses steam. Primarily, I use the information to gauge directional performance:
Was the day up or down?
Was today's volume higher or lower than yesterday's?
Was today's perceptive value(VA) higher or lower than yesterday's?
Was today's volume higher or lower than the 30-day average?*
What quadrant of the day's range (H-L) did we close in?
How far were buyers and sellers willing to let prices go(spread)?
Was today's activity primarily initiative or responsive?**
Who dominated the auction rotations(RF)?
Did we close above value today or below?
Did we close above yesterday's value or below?
What was the net change for the day(the result of the day's activity)?
If you log the information long enough and try to avoid making "predictions" of overall directionality and speculate more on the high and low limits for the next day, you'd be surprised at how accurate you can become over time. The basic principles of profiling should also be considered:
If directionality is strongly favoring the upside, where is the next pile of distribution above the current price (high volume nodes) that COULD act as resistance?
If directionality is strongly favoring the downside, where is the next pile of distribution below the current price (high volume nodes) that COULD act as support?
I look at high volume nodes as an area of balance, where prices go from there helps in dictating directional performance:
The last HVN we saw, did we leave it to the upside or downside?
Price has the tendency to move from balance to imbalance, we all understand this. Who is creating that imbalance? Bandung pointed out very astutely the other day about deciphering larger time frame control by looking at monthly profiles. Watching control points for support and resistance can give you perspective as to who is in control (thus "point of control"). For example:
An uptrend that pulls back and finds heavy buyer support at the previous month's control point can be deciphered as "monthly time frame trader control" - as Bandung pointed out. Same for any time frame really, it's all a matter of looking at different profiles.
I have the tendency to use a "process of elimination" method when it comes to trying to buy and sell highs and lows. Firstly, I MUST know if the relative market activity has been initiative or responsive:
In an uptrend, where are the buyers buying? Above or below value?
In a downtrend, where are the sellers selling? Above or below value?
Next, I try to find areas in the previous day's profile that could act as support or resistance, for example:
We're trending up, the last few days have shown responsive buying at or marginally below value - we are in a responsive market. I look at the previous day's low value area (I like to call it "wholesale prices") and locate areas with a high concentration of distribution (HVNs). I would then place a series of limit orders down there (usually no more than 5) and risk approximately 1% of my account value on each limit order. The amount I risk varies dependent upon confidence in the price levels I'm choosing. If I have high levels of confidence that there will be responsive buying in one zone, I will risk less and spread that risk out onto the price levels I have LESS confidence in.
The worse case scenario, I lose 5% of my account on a series of well-calculated responsive attempts rather than one wild guess (in a responsive market).
I suppose it's different for each of us as individual traders but I try to keep it as simple as I can. I apologize if the long post makes it seem complicated. I've just got a rhythm of doing it over and over again, every day. Sometimes I'm wrong, but I aim to be right most of the time, like we all do. After all, we are speculators in this grand market and being wrong is the cost of doing business.
*I use a 30-day average for volume, just a preference. It's not really a "set-in-stone kinda thing
**Responsive activity vs Initiating activity:
Buying above value = initiating
Buying below value = responsive
Selling above value = responsive
Selling below value = initiative.
(just trying to be as informative as I can)
Bilstein,
Do you have any xls template where you maintain all these results?
Do you have any xls template where you maintain all these results?
Getting passed using MP as an indicator was difficult for me, lol
I work full-time so most of the week, the only information I have to work with is the end-of-day profile and data - this is why I keep a record. My method involves speculating as to who was dominant in the market for the day and how far are buyers and sellers willing to let prices go before one or the other loses steam. Primarily, I use the information to gauge directional performance:
[b]Was the day up or down?
Was today's volume higher or lower than yesterday's?
Was today's...
- #2,056
- Edited 10:19pm Apr 25, 2011 10:15pm | Edited 10:19pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,879 Posts
Getting passed using MP as an indicator was difficult for me, lol
I work full-time so most of the week, the only information I have to work with is the end-of-day profile and data - this is why I keep a record. My method involves speculating as to who was dominant in the market for the day and how far are buyers and sellers willing to let prices go before one or the other loses steam. Primarily, I use the information to gauge directional performance:
Was the day up or down?
Was today's volume higher or lower than yesterday's?
[b]Was...
I trade intraday day and often lose track of the longer time frame, I really appreciate your input. I often narrow my focus on a per session analysis, I forget the importance of end of day analysis. You gave me so many great ideas and things to consider! I have alot of work ahead of me. Again, thank you, great post!
ps. Im sure Ill have plenty of questions!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
- #2,058
- Apr 25, 2011 10:36pm Apr 25, 2011 10:36pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,879 Posts
No worries, mate. I STILL have plenty of questions. There's always more we can learn from each other!
Tonight for example, I figured we'd rotate lower towards 1.4510 and possibly encounter responsive buying below value. So as we approached 1.4510, then 1.45 I said to my wife:
-"Babe, should I buy or sell the Euro?"
(Just trying to get her into what we do)
-"Uhh, is it up or down?"
-"Down a bit from the open during the Asia session"
(we we're at 1.4495)
-"Buy it?"
(she guesses)
I proceed to put in a limit order just a couple of...
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
- #2,059
- Apr 26, 2011 3:20am Apr 26, 2011 3:20am
Amazing how right she turned out to be. If I'd have bought when she told me to I'd be up nearly 100 points right now. I took an initiative trade just a bit above value and the open for +53.9
I'm never awake to trade the London session.. I like it, seems like there's so much more action!
I'm never awake to trade the London session.. I like it, seems like there's so much more action!