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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #94,141
  • Apr 20, 2011 5:19pm Apr 20, 2011 5:19pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Dan

Not quite for me. Tempting but ultimatly gonna sit it out. I think everyones analysis was fine. Here was my response to a member

I don't really look at it as a breakout as there is real no pattern there. So for me this is really just a beob at a swing low closing below the lowest low(which is a good thing). Trend and BRN make it a good candidate to go lower, but I prefer to play these continuations off more defined patterns. I thought about this one for a bit today but ultimately decided to pass on it. I would have preferred a higher high...

wtf?!?!
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #94,142
  • Apr 20, 2011 5:31pm Apr 20, 2011 5:31pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
wtf?!?!
Lol sorry bud. Like I always say doesnt make it a bad trade just about being comfortable going into it. If I was up a lot for the month I would be more lenient. But its been a slower month so I stay more picky. There are always more opportunities that I would rather wait and be fully comfortable. This is how I trade best

Take care
Mike
  • #94,143
  • Apr 20, 2011 5:34pm Apr 20, 2011 5:34pm
Monthly and Daily BKS
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  • #94,144
  • Apr 20, 2011 5:36pm Apr 20, 2011 5:36pm
Quoting mbqb11
Lol sorry bud. Like I always say doesnt make it a bad trade just about being comfortable going into it. If I was up a lot for the month I would be more lenient. But its been a slower month so I stay more picky. There are always more opportunities that I would rather wait and be fully comfortable. This is how I trade best

Take care
Mike
Interesting way of reasoning.

Cheers
  • #94,145
  • Apr 20, 2011 5:38pm Apr 20, 2011 5:38pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
This meets my standards.

I would also be willing to bet money Mr. Mike would agree with me....
I've placed by bets, as Mike mentioned... I'm looking for a strong break and cash 2/3 in and let the rest run with the momentum (assuming momentum on downside is shown tomorrow).


Regards
  • #94,146
  • Apr 20, 2011 5:39pm Apr 20, 2011 5:39pm
Maybe a retest on the usd/chf to the Bar lows with a nice Bearish Pattern would be better for mike ??
  • #94,147
  • Apr 20, 2011 5:44pm Apr 20, 2011 5:44pm
Quoting Wakanapi
I've placed by bets, as Mike mentioned... I'm looking for a strong break and cash 2/3 in and let the rest run with the momentum (assuming momentum on downside is shown tomorrow).


Regards
I like that approach wakanapi. We can still easily manage this trade logically.

Here is a better example of a scenario that would have been more ideal for me.

Again I think people easily forget that trading is dynamic and especially if you are a discretionary trader you want the pieces to fit in a way that is fully comfortable when you pull that trigger. That took years to get for me and still is an ongoing process. I pass on trades all the time I have a very good idea how will play out, but I don't care cause I am confident in my trades in the long run which I have proven over the years to myself.

My post above was not meant to be discouraging , actually if anything it should do the opposite

Best
Mike
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  • #94,148
  • Apr 20, 2011 5:50pm Apr 20, 2011 5:50pm
Quoting mbqb11
Lol sorry bud. Like I always say doesnt make it a bad trade just about being comfortable going into it. If I was up a lot for the month I would be more lenient. But its been a slower month so I stay more picky. There are always more opportunities that I would rather wait and be fully comfortable. This is how I trade best

Take care
Mike
lol fair enough....

I am surprised though.
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #94,149
  • Apr 20, 2011 5:54pm Apr 20, 2011 5:54pm
Quoting mbqb11
I like that approach wakanapi....
Point taken, totally agree with you.

So if the high was higher than it is, would that indicate that it's 'strong selling'? Or is it that the confluence would be stronger than it is now?
I would be really grateful if you could post some examples in the upcoming days regarding strong/weak buying/selling. I've been meaning to bring this up for a while now

Gotta go to bed, I'll read the posts first thing tomorrow morning.

nightie
  • #94,150
  • Apr 20, 2011 5:59pm Apr 20, 2011 5:59pm
Quoting Wakanapi
Point taken, totally agree with you.

So if the high was higher than it is, would that indicate that it's 'strong selling'? Or is it that the confluence would be stronger than it is now?
I would be really grateful if you could post some examples in the upcoming days regarding strong/weak buying/selling. I've been meaning to bring this up for a while now

Gotta go to bed, I'll read the posts first thing tomorrow morning.

nightie

Hey W

Well certainly Stronger if it had a higher high. Then I would almost surely take it with the scenario we are in. Like I said, I think all the analysis here and those on the PF is more then fair enough. Still have areas to manage it, but it's just not quite right. I stared out it and if I start doing that too long I tend to not be entirely comfortable and I end up not being as sharp on the mgmt side. This is the personality side of trading.

Hope that helps
Mike
  • #94,151
  • Apr 20, 2011 9:05pm Apr 20, 2011 9:05pm
Quoting Be Cool
Sorry, PB - i still dont understand
Why is 1.3400 not a concern to Mike? Because if you draw fib from July 2010 and Jan 2011 -they pile up around 1.3400 as well

I think drawing fibs is very subjective and different people draw them differently. Mike likes to use the main swings only, I believe.

That said, I have seen J16 drawing a fib like this on a potential long setup, the fib looks backwards as if we are looking for a short but, I am looking at how this candle closed only. I know there is not much data on this small swing but, notice how this candle came off the 50 fibo and even though it engulfed the previous candle, it could not close strongly or even above the 38.2 and the close was more than half way down the candle.
This was more than enough to keep me out of it.
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  • #94,152
  • Apr 20, 2011 9:11pm Apr 20, 2011 9:11pm
Quoting Pinbar
I think drawing fibs is very subjective and different people draw them differently. Mike likes to use the main swings only, I believe.

That said, I have seen J16 drawing a fib like this on a potential long setup, the fib looks backwards as if we are looking for a short but, I am looking at how this candle closed only. I know there is not much data on this small swing but, notice how this candle came off the 50 fibo and even though it engulfed the previous candle, it could not close strongly or even above the 38.2 and the close was more than half...
Hey Pin

I have never seen James draw a fib that way for a long setup because the way you have it drawn would be looking for a retracement to go short. Since you are drawing it from a swing high point to swing low point. Now if you are using it as INFO as to where price may stall that is a different story. But that wasn't the way BC was using them.

If you guys have more questions about fibs let me know

Mike
  • #94,153
  • Apr 20, 2011 9:19pm Apr 20, 2011 9:19pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Pin

I have never seen James draw a fib that way for a long setup because the way you have it drawn would be looking for a retracement to go short. Since you are drawing it from a swing high point to swing low point. Now if you are using it as INFO as to where price may stall that is a different story. But that wasn't the way BC was using them.

If you guys have more questions about fibs let me know

Mike

I have seen J16 draw a fibo from a minor high to a low to see if such a setup is worth taking. Hang on a bit, I will go through all my notes and try to find the name of that video.
  • #94,154
  • Apr 20, 2011 9:22pm Apr 20, 2011 9:22pm
Quoting Pinbar
I have seen J16 draw a fibo from a minor high to a low to see if such a setup is worth taking. Hang on a bit, I will go through all my notes and try to find the name of that video.
Hey Pin

You are confusing though what BC was doing though, He was using Fibs that were irrelevant to the swings we were looking at. Where as you drew one relevant to that current swing. Two separate situations is what I am explaining

Best
Mike
  • #94,155
  • Apr 20, 2011 9:32pm Apr 20, 2011 9:32pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Pin

You are confusing though what BC was doing though, He was using Fibs that were irrelevant to the swings we were looking at. Where as you drew one relevant to that current swing. Two separate situations is what I am explaining

Best
Mike

Oh, Ok.....Let me go back and check.


EDIT: By the way I found one of them it was EURGBP21209 and he is using a more substantial swing high to look where the BUEOB is going to have trouble at. He is drawing the fibo from the SH to the SL.

This is not the one I am thinking of though, where J16 uses only a minor sh-sl fibo to do the same thing. I distinctly remember him saying, this is not a lot of data but we can use it to see where price may have trouble at.

Oh, right Mike...I think I did not see a chart by BC on this subject just a text post to me asking about it.
Ships in the night.
  • #94,156
  • Apr 21, 2011 12:57am Apr 21, 2011 12:57am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey BC

The fibs you are drawing are from swing low to swing high....
I see. Once plotted, since those fibs level dont get price reaction for longs, they become obsolete and will not stall price on the way up.
Thanks Mike
  • #94,157
  • Apr 21, 2011 1:30am Apr 21, 2011 1:30am
Quoting Pinbar

Oh, right Mike...I think I did not see a chart by BC on this subject just a text post to me asking about it.
Ships in the night.
Sorry about the confusion, Pin
Yes i drew it from a few SL points to the SH. I thought since it has fibs confluence it might be an important area to watch. But after making that SH, price retrace past 1.3400 (my fibs confluence area) and bounced off 1.3200 near another fibs confluence area.

I guess i cannot use fibs that way
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  • #94,158
  • Apr 21, 2011 1:44am Apr 21, 2011 1:44am
Quoting the_wizard
I in no way, whatsoever, mean this with any disrespect but buying off a TL or selling if it breaks through has to be, imho one of the simplest ways to lose money over time for the reasons that Mike explains above.

I sat with a guy that had this same strategy in the Dax. He used to sit there and say "why does everyone read the book - you guys sit there like loons all day watching numbers, I just buy a touch of a TL or I sell a break of one as long as it's a significant TL. Simple!"

He was at that for 2 years. Made money. Lost money. But on...
Works for me lol.

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  • #94,159
  • Apr 21, 2011 2:11am Apr 21, 2011 2:11am
Quoting Be Cool
Sorry about the confusion, Pin
Yes i drew it from a few SL points to the SH. I thought since it has fibs confluence it might be an important area to watch. But after making that SH, price retrace past 1.3400 (my fibs confluence area) and bounced off 1.3200 near another fibs confluence area.

I guess i cannot use fibs that way

Hey, NP BC.

I now understand what you were doing and as Mike said we, we need to keep our fibs relevant to the current swing.

Keep at it BC.
  • #94,160
  • Apr 21, 2011 2:37am Apr 21, 2011 2:37am
Quoting stewrigh
Works for me lol.

Attachment
Some clarification on that trade may be useful.

First - the trend is up so I am only looking for long signals.

Price pulls back to the trendline so I am looking for a confirmation signal and I get a hammer right on previous support - 200 MA- no brainer IMHO.

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