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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #24,461
  • Apr 20, 2011 2:25pm Apr 20, 2011 2:25pm
Quoting auxesis
Nihon, or Nippon referring to the "Land of the Rising Sun", Japan.

The radiation damage will deal a long term detrimental impact to Japan. As a result both the economy and currency will suffer. Long term Yen shorts are the play, but you have to pick your entries and parings and being the bottom is a few hundred pips away, high gearing from the wrong spot can cause one much distress if your not prepared.

Cravat, look for a good interest pair for the carry swap.

fwiw.
I've been busy moving out of the UK and haven't been around much so thanks for that response. I've managed to get another contract in Sweden now but I'm still in the market.
  • #24,462
  • Apr 20, 2011 3:16pm Apr 20, 2011 3:16pm
Quoting auxesis
Nihon, or Nippon referring to the "Land of the Rising Sun", Japan.

The radiation damage will deal a long term detrimental impact to Japan. As a result both the economy and currency will suffer. Long term Yen shorts are the play, but you have to pick your entries and parings and being the bottom is a few hundred pips away, high gearing from the wrong spot can cause one much distress if your not prepared.

Cravat, look for a good interest pair for the carry swap.

fwiw.

Thanks for your response.... sorry for late one, didn't have to much time until today.

Thanks
Ess
  • #24,463
  • Edited 4:50pm Apr 20, 2011 4:36pm | Edited 4:50pm
I just tried the long sword. It feels much easier to use than the short sword! Just out of curiosity fti ( I understand that the majority of decisions to use long or short sword depend on many factors), but a 20-30 pip retrace against our position should be minimal on long sword right?

ah never mind. I'm going to use combo. Big bouncy bottoms signal longer reversal, for bias. Managing small impulses in the now. Also through practice finally hit me. AOW idea of not fighting battles we can't win. I sit patiently waiting for mmakers to return volatility or fight each other out. Or I wait for an established bottom/top, watch guys get trapped, let them die then come back when follow through come in. After the sweeps I move in like a vulture.

Could you give me an idea of what these look like: heavy tops, solid bottoms, long legged ladies?

Through exp I find sweeps to be very telling of direction. But sometimes sweeps seem weak, it will take a few sweeps to do a clean job. Then after the sweep price kind of float around and finally decides to move. I was wondering if you had any ideas on how to "read" sweeps.

I also noticed very small impulses that come from nowhere in the middle of a range. Not sure what that's about.
  • #24,464
  • Apr 20, 2011 4:48pm Apr 20, 2011 4:48pm
Quoting fullperson
I just tried the long sword. It feels much easier to use than the short sword! Just out of curiosity fti ( I understand that the majority of decisions to use long or short sword depend on many factors), but a 20-30 pip retrace against our position should be minimal on long sword right?

ah never mind. I'm going to use combo. Big bouncy bottoms signal longer reversal, for bias. Managing small impulses in the now.
20-30 pips? # of Pips mean nothing, all is in relation to the chart, where are you now in relation to current and prior leg, waves... etc.

Quit thinking of pips and concentrate on distance, from average, from base and volatility which dictates size.

regards
  • #24,465
  • Apr 20, 2011 5:12pm Apr 20, 2011 5:12pm
Quoting fullperson

Could you give me an idea of what these look like: heavy tops, solid bottoms, long legged ladies?

Through exp I find sweeps to be very telling of direction. But sometimes sweeps seem weak, it will take a few sweeps to do a clean job. Then after the sweep price kind of float around and finally decides to move. I was wondering if you had any ideas on how to "read" sweeps.
Think about what's going on, given the chart in front of you (without bias), all parameters given to the moment you are at battle-stations, i.e. time of day... proximity to open/close, lunch?, time in relation to next news breaks..etc ---- twilight or off hours.... where are you in relation to charts critical levels...... trying to analysis charts after the fact can be deceiving, larger candles have lots of hidden info inside.... you can see/feel them (sweeps) while it's happening if your tuned into price action.... it's hard to sweep in the heat of battle, often used as price manipulation, swallowed on news breaks or off hours in thin liquidity.

How you deal with them depends on several factors, fading, using them as confirmation or exit, there's no pat answer as all is in relation to the above.
  • #24,466
  • Apr 20, 2011 5:28pm Apr 20, 2011 5:28pm
Quoting the redlion
true, i see what youre saying, on the BB. but sorry for the repeat question but
the ATR what is that needed for?

many traders use them for safe areas for stop losses and that is NOT what we are trying to do.

we need ATR to tell us that volatility is increasing, but for what? i am curious to know how or why use it?
Redlion

IMHO....... Using an ATR indicator is not the way to go, as it is lagging and doesn't tell you much more than you could see using your bare eyes. What you want to watch is how far is price currently stretching from the average. Fti in the early thread talked about hourly and half session moving average's marking the true average, emphasis on not using them as normal support/resistance, which creates rigidity.

What price is doing in relation to the true average gives clues to prices agenda and aids the dance. Use a pre-defined chart size, X# of bars horizontally by X# of pips vertically and keep them the same, set this for your different time frames, after a while you will see price move at certain angles, the steeper the angle, the greater price is stretching. it will be an eye opener after a while as you will see future price possibilities and a greater feel for it's pulse.

You don't really need the ma's, and it's better to train the eyes without the aids.

regards
  • #24,467
  • Apr 20, 2011 6:34pm Apr 20, 2011 6:34pm
Quoting auxesis
Redlion


What price is doing in relation to the true average gives clues to prices agenda and aids the dance. Use a pre-defined chart size, X# of bars horizontally by X# of pips vertically and keep them the same, set this for your different time frames, after a while you will see price move at certain angles, the steeper the angle, the greater price is stretching. it will be an eye opener after a while as you will see future price possibilities and a greater feel for it's pulse.

You don't really need the ma's, and it's better to train the eyes...
Hi auxesis,
If it is possible, can you give more details or example on how to pre-defined chart size, X# of bars horizontally by X# of pips vertically and keep them the same, and set this for different time frames? would be very gratefull, thanks
Jaro
  • #24,468
  • Edited 7:10pm Apr 20, 2011 6:50pm | Edited 7:10pm
Quoting Jaro
Hi auxesis,
If it is possible, can you give more details or example on how to pre-defined chart size, X# of bars horizontally by X# of pips vertically and keep them the same, and set this for different time frames? would be very gratefull, thanks
Jaro
Jaro what charting platform do you use?

Here's mt4, right click on your chart, and click on properties, it will bring up this box, you can set the scale..... here i set the scale to 500 pips, width is set to 500 bars. Having your chart square is not a prerequisite, but if you use same similar scales and widths for your charts it will help you. Everyone has their own preferences. I like mine zoomed out to see more terrain, some like up close, pick what works for you can keep it.

You can look at a drop of 100 pips over 240 "5" minute bars or 4 hours..... if your chart is set to 1000 pips height the drop will look flat, if it's set to 50 pips height, you won't be able to fit it all on one screen. Having a familiar chart setup/scale will help you understand teh exact angle/momentum of pushes when they are all gauged the same.

hope it helps,

a
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  • #24,469
  • Apr 20, 2011 6:58pm Apr 20, 2011 6:58pm
Quoting auxesis
Jaro what charting platform do you use?
I use MT4
Thanks
  • #24,470
  • Apr 20, 2011 7:11pm Apr 20, 2011 7:11pm
Quoting Jaro
I use MT4
Thanks
see edited post above
  • #24,471
  • Apr 20, 2011 7:41pm Apr 20, 2011 7:41pm
Quoting auxesis
see edited post above
Thanks auxesis, it is very helpfull
God Bless!
  • #24,472
  • Apr 20, 2011 8:10pm Apr 20, 2011 8:10pm
Author: Forex Live: The USD index is at 30 month lows, USD/CHF is at record lows and AUD/USD is at new post-float record highs near 1.0735; this momentum is very strong with much of the USD-selling coming from options players. More and more cover against a collapsing USD is being bought.

Now is the time to buy.
  • #24,473
  • Apr 20, 2011 8:47pm Apr 20, 2011 8:47pm
thanks for all your inputs i was going over the whole post again and i was curious on FTI usage of ATR.

But as i make my calculations, it is true that its not needed as you can visualize by candles or price quotes themselves, its about the feel and rhythm of price.

the strength and time of price movement according to key levels and what price is actually doing. i have been consitently profitable since our teacher led me to see the light by this post and i have been trying to help newbies in the main forum.

my style of trading is this:

look at the news and important releases from the FEDs and CBs, then i look at the majors and the strength and movement of the USD, i open up the USDX index. and look at commodities, gold, Silver and the markets to gauge market sentiment and risk aversion.
correct me if im wrong but i dont trade the pairs per say i trade the movement of the USD agains the pairs of my choosing.

i look at the daily charts, for potential corrections or continuations and strength of movement of price. i take my 5 minute chart and begin with a scout, i add to my position as price moves my way or re position my troops if price is attacking me.

when i believe that my judgement on direction of price is wrong i usually hedge against a correlating pair, or simply attempt to salvage as many troops as i can without over exposing my self. no indicators on the charts
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #24,474
  • Apr 21, 2011 1:27am Apr 21, 2011 1:27am
Quoting the redlion
thanks for all your inputs i was going over the whole post again and i was curious on FTI usage of ATR.

But as i make my calculations, it is true that its not needed as you can visualize by candles or price quotes themselves, its about the feel and rhythm of price.

the strength and time of price movement according to key levels and what price is actually doing. i have been consitently profitable since our teacher led me to see the light by this post and i have been trying to help newbies in the main forum.

my style of trading is this:

look...
it sounds a good plan to me...
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #24,475
  • Apr 21, 2011 2:14am Apr 21, 2011 2:14am
Good Morning Friends!

I hope you have all layed out your battle plan for today:

- Knowing the terrain for Attacks but also rescues
- Knowing price areas and momentum, when to turn
- Knowing areas for defeat (reducing exposure)


BTW: Very important info from Auxesis - Only trying to watch at your charts with the same scaling every day, will give you a feeling how strong some move or momentum is in reality. You need this type of "fixed scaling" to have some anchors for comparison ...


Wish you a great day!

All the best,
Niels
  • #24,476
  • Apr 21, 2011 4:21am Apr 21, 2011 4:21am
i have the feeling this move up is the final leg before major reversal , stay nimble and alert
good luck
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #24,477
  • Edited 6:45am Apr 21, 2011 4:37am | Edited 6:45am
Quoting maheswara
i have the feeling this move up is the final leg before major reversal , stay nimble and alert
good luck

Good to see u man...


V

PS: good call
  • #24,478
  • Apr 21, 2011 5:24am Apr 21, 2011 5:24am
Today I talked with olympic gold medalist in my sport, and asked him how can koreans resist long and intesive workouts each day, as I go there. He just told me. Keep your mind clear, and ask yourself why are you there? pff that shocked me. Guy has a mentality of gold medalist its not tht much bout skill all the best
P.S It can also be capable for trading, why are you doing what are you doing and putting sacrafices??? Why do you trade now for long hours, when u see its become being succesful one day, its aint tht much hard anymore. all best again P
  • #24,479
  • Apr 21, 2011 7:22am Apr 21, 2011 7:22am
News coming in 10 min....


V
  • #24,480
  • Apr 21, 2011 8:26am Apr 21, 2011 8:26am
Thanks Buddy, I was trying this manually how ever this makes it so much better.
Kanwar

Quoting auxesis
Jaro what charting platform do you use?

Here's mt4, right click on your chart, and click on properties, it will bring up this box, you can set the scale..... here i set the scale to 500 pips, width is set to 500 bars.
a
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