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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #24,441
  • Apr 20, 2011 5:24am Apr 20, 2011 5:24am
hi fti,

just want to say thanks for the material, i just start to read your thread, just want to share, i first found your thread late 2007 as i start began to learn to tradeing forex, and i thought "what the he*l are u talking about" so i completely ignored, and now after 4 years and 2 blowed account, i began to understand what are u talking about, geez had i managed to stay from the beginning maybe i dont need to read this massive 1600++ page LOL,

but thanks for the share, i just need to read all of this from the scratch
  • #24,442
  • Apr 20, 2011 5:33am Apr 20, 2011 5:33am
Quoting ernest
hi fti,

just want to say thanks for the material, i just start to read your thread, just want to share, i first found your thread late 2007 as i start began to learn to tradeing forex, and i thought "what the he*l are u talking about" so i completely ignored, and now after 4 years and 2 blowed account, i began to understand what are u talking about, geez had i managed to stay from the beginning maybe i dont need to read this massive 1600++ page LOL,

but thanks for the share, i just need to read all of this from the scratch
be careful not blow another one.
Its difficult change bad habits. Try hard and replace the bad habits. Then you will have good chance to succeed. And not try to recover everything you lost too quickly. Can get much gas. Good luck.

regards
  • #24,443
  • Apr 20, 2011 5:43am Apr 20, 2011 5:43am
Quoting fti
, gro, on the same subjectas daytek.

"BRICS new monetary order"

yes, they can invent anything they like for their trading. BUT, is their goodwill acceptable for the recepients?
The easy covertability standards maintained?
store of value?durability? And stability of governance?
Peeps should understand the things they say better, before shooting blanks.
How you like trade for something that turns out banana notes the next.
Show your goodwill and trustworthyness first,otherwise is only blanks.
Just because they are world's top trading nation,...
Hi fti, I agree with what you say but I think so:
One is self-sufficient in resources, the other has foreign relations, and the third has great spiritual potential ... and the other two it is "hands are extended".
"Kingdom at its height was always defeated by their slave."

"I am so wise as we all"

PS The question of how are you?How much energy you have, you feel better?
  • #24,444
  • Apr 20, 2011 5:46am Apr 20, 2011 5:46am
Quoting fti
, gro, on the same subjectas daytek.

"BRICS new monetary order"

yes, they can invent anything they like for their trading. BUT, is their goodwill acceptable for the recepients?
The easy covertability standards maintained?
store of value?durability? And stability of governance?
Peeps should understand the things they say better, before shooting blanks.
How you like trade for something that turns out banana notes the next.
Show your goodwill and trustworthyness first,otherwise is only blanks.
Just because they are world's top trading...
reminds me.
you know i think Nihon economy had just follows the QE2 footprints that heli did.
I think, they going to pay a big big price for it.
When things goes bad.Markets need find its equilibrium to reflect the true state of affairs. Otherwise is manipulation and in denial.
The only good thingy i can say of this jap QE2 exercises is no wild and killer volatility. But denial isn't going to be good. Is just lies.
Bad habits of artificial management will never allow markets find true equilibrium.
Is just same as the nuclear thingy. Ya containment , but really does any one know the true damages incurred already?
And what the consequences down the road?
One thing i cannot support and tolerate are liars.

Is just same as traders having long short locks on losses. Just because they had not taken the book loss which is 80% of their equity, doesn't mean that the loss is not real. They say they hedged. Hedged my stinking donkey.
  • #24,445
  • Edited 6:33am Apr 20, 2011 5:57am | Edited 6:33am
Quoting Gro
Hi fti, I agree with what you say but I think so:
One is self-sufficient in resources, the other has foreign relations, and the third has great spiritual potential ... and the other two it is "hands are extended".
"Kingdom at its height was always defeated by their slave."

"I am so wise as we all"

PS The question of how are you?How much energy you have, you feel better?
like i mentioned.
Some days are diamonds, some stones.
Today is struck diamond veins. Later? only God knows.

regards
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  • #24,446
  • Apr 20, 2011 6:33am Apr 20, 2011 6:33am
Quoting fti
like i mentioned.
Some days are diamonds, some stones.
Today is struck diamond veins. Later? only God knows.

regards
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0DQup4hd1_o
yes yes, we'll go with the flow ...
  • #24,447
  • Apr 20, 2011 8:17am Apr 20, 2011 8:17am
Very interesting reading both here and in the markets. Nice trades abound money to be made.

"The five BRICS nations continue to call for broad-based international reserve currency system instead of the U.S. dollar, aiming to provide "Stability and Certainty" where the nations said that the financial crisis revealed inadequacies and deficiencies of the current monetary system of the world."

The words in bold highlight it all. You are either in a position of power or you're not. You don't whine about it. A history of those five nations and who really wields power in those countries will help clarify the situation. Not a chance they really want to change the game. The rich and powerful get richer under the current system. Don't be naive they don't really care about the little guy and stability.

S&P, DJIA, STOXX50E, DAX all look very toppy. Sell Euros at elevated levels but be careful it may require strategic retreats. My worthless two cents.
  • #24,448
  • Apr 20, 2011 8:21am Apr 20, 2011 8:21am
This song relates very well to the personal battle one must deal with when one is trading and their personal demons try to raise their head.

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  • #24,449
  • Apr 20, 2011 8:48am Apr 20, 2011 8:48am
Bunds and 10 years already moving quite a bit. Clues to the unfolding puzzle.

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  • #24,450
  • Edited 9:53am Apr 20, 2011 9:24am | Edited 9:53am
Quoting sakatalight
hi JoK,
welcome aboard!
Thank you Sakatalight, I really have to catch up with you guys.
  • #24,451
  • Edited 10:36am Apr 20, 2011 10:21am | Edited 10:36am
Quoting ernest
hi fti,

just want to say thanks for the material, i just start to read your thread, just want to share, i first found your thread late 2007 as i start began to learn to tradeing forex, and i thought "what the he*l are u talking about" so i completely ignored, and now after 4 years and 2 blowed account, i began to understand what are u talking about, geez had i managed to stay from the beginning maybe i dont need to read this massive 1600++ page LOL,

but thanks for the share, i just need to read all of this from the scratch
Hi Ernest, I have also have a homework to read all 1,600 pages of this thread. I have just come across this thread three days ago. Now I am only at page 45.

You blowed 2 account in 4 years, well you are much better that what I have accomplished. I have managed to blow 12 account... . I have tried almost all the what so called "best trading system" available on this planet. From the trend following, Break-out system, agresive, defensive, hedging, scalping, Ichimoku, Gann Grid system, etc... even try quite a few robot running on vps, these robots also blowed my account, so I had to ask all the robots to resign.

Three days ago, I found this beautiful thread and after I read the FTI posts, I realize that no matter how good the system is, I will still blow my account. FTI has opened my eyes, the problem is not that the system does not work, it's the mind-set that have to be shaped up and formed.

So now, I am in the process of the shaping up the mind-set by reading this thread (well, I am only at page 45 though), still 1,600 page to go.

Thanks FTI and all other fellow trader and contributors that have make this thread really good.
  • #24,452
  • Apr 20, 2011 10:28am Apr 20, 2011 10:28am
Quoting Guerrillawar
Very interesting reading both here and in the markets. Nice trades abound money to be made.

"The five BRICS nations continue to call for broad-based international reserve currency system instead of the U.S. dollar, aiming to provide "Stability and Certainty" where the nations said that the financial crisis revealed inadequacies and deficiencies of the current monetary system of the world."

The words in bold highlight it all. You are either in a position of power or you're not. You don't whine about it. A history of those...
Stability and Certainty, it is very hard to achieve this objective. Imaging trying to get brazil and china to agree on economic policy. It would way more complex than what is going on in europe right now. Don't you think so?

I agree with you, there is not a chance they would like to change the game. But perhaps being too optimistic about their future?

@ FTI

"Show your goodwill and trustworthyness first,otherwise is only blanks.
Just because they are world's top trading nation, every one HAVE to accept their currency?"

With all the manipulation that we have seen lately, what are the chances that the world will eventually move towards a new currency? i mean it happened before, from pounds to dollars. But i just cant imagine anything else replacing the dollar, until it will be buried. then we will see.

"When things goes bad.Markets need find its equilibrium to reflect the true state of affairs. Otherwise is manipulation and in denial."

Thats the basis of my believing of why they have been short for a while.

Perhaps is this within the lines of reality?

If you are a dealer, marketmaker, or the fed,(whoever it is that really does this) and you create a lot of debt by selling houses on credit to a lot of players, you essentially shorting the dollar. Buyers might blindly think they are long on the dollar, as they are putting all their savings in the house. But in the back there is a book with a big short position hence moving from equilibrium. Thats why i wonder if someone has been snowballing on such position. if you create that trend and the market follows god only knows if there is even going to be a counter party, for the market to shift back again into equilibrium. I have a hard time understanding this.



"The fact that it had been badly managed for a little time now does not take away it's usefulness as an exchange machanism to facilitate international trading in exchange of goods amongst nations. The usd had since its inception carried its resposibilities well, in as an easily exchangeable vehicle for trade with strong underlying characteristics as store of value and portability. For this reason nearly anything can be traded for the usd, even in and espcialy in nations of the third world economies"

the dollar has played a huge role in third world economies. They are the ones benefiting from all this devaluation problems we see. Well, at least that is what we would like to believe. When in reality they are not getting an exchange vehicle that stores its value anymore. The dollar culture is for instance so deeply engraved that emerging economies take the dollar no matter what. Some people may argue that America is seeing its wealth flee the country. While in reality, is nothing more than a new system of colonization.


"However having said that, the world has not found a better way and machanism for exchange and payment for goods and services yet"

Do you see anything coming up?

"By the way would you accept your paychecks in RMB or the rupiah?
Think about it carefully. Maybe in seashells or rice?"

Renminbis or Rupiahs, if the markets remain as liquid as they are and china remains as "fake" as it is. then i would gladly take your RMBs. But the way i think the world is moving scrap those currencies and i would gladly take the rice.

Regards
  • #24,453
  • Apr 20, 2011 11:15am Apr 20, 2011 11:15am
Hi FTI, first of all i want to thank you again for all the knowledge you have shared. i have been practicing this art of trading for about 3 months, and i am already profitable. thanks to you

i still need to master the Rescues skews, i mean its easy in a trending market as all it is, is basically repositioning on a bad entry going on the right direction.
however i am not so proficient in actually RESCUING a trade. but that is another question for later.


as of now this is my question. To you it is important of course to know PRICE and Direction, as well as speed and volatility. NOW to clarify, the reason for your concern for price speed and volatility would be to gauge the resolve of the traders to continue to push the market in a certain direction with price speed.
and volatility picks up at areas when sentiment changes am i correct?

i know you dont advocate indicators due to the danger of them imposing biased opinions on what should be a nimble flexible system. however Bollinger Bands and ATR due give a good read of volatility, not to follow a bounce or let the bands due your trading but to aid in the identification of reduced or widened volatility as well as the mean.

if i am wrong please correct me.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #24,454
  • Apr 20, 2011 11:23am Apr 20, 2011 11:23am
Just my opinion not FTI's. ATR is a versatile indicator. It should not be on your chart you only need the number. Put that in excel. Its the only indi I look at. Bollinger bands are the mother of all bias creators. Naturally you want to by the lower band and sell the upper band. Extremely dangerous.


Quoting the redlion
Hi FTI, first of all i want to thank you again for all the knowledge you have shared. i have been practicing this art of trading for about 3 months, and i am already profitable. thanks to you

i still need to master the Rescues skews, i mean its easy in a trending market as all it is, is basically repositioning on a bad entry going on the right direction.
however i am not so proficient in actually RESCUING a trade. but that is another question for later.


as of now this is my question. To you it is important of course to know PRICE and Direction,...
  • #24,455
  • Apr 20, 2011 11:25am Apr 20, 2011 11:25am
Just my opinion not FTI's. ATR is a versatile indicator. It should not be on your chart you only need the number. Put that in excel. Its the only indi I look at. Bollinger bands are the mother of all bias creators. Naturally you want to by the lower band and sell the upper band. Extremely dangerous.

"not to follow a bounce or let the bands due your trading but to aid in the identification of reduced or widened volatility as well as the mean."
if you can't tell vols are contracting with your own eyes you need much more screen time. You don't need an indi to tell you what you already know. Its like racing tour de france with training wheels.

Quoting the redlion
Hi FTI, first of all i want to thank you again for all the knowledge you have shared. i have been practicing this art of trading for about 3 months, and i am already profitable. thanks to you

i still need to master the Rescues skews, i mean its easy in a trending market as all it is, is basically repositioning on a bad entry going on the right direction.
however i am not so proficient in actually RESCUING a trade. but that is another question for later.


as of now this is my question. To you it is important of course to know PRICE and Direction,...
  • #24,456
  • Apr 20, 2011 11:30am Apr 20, 2011 11:30am
true, i see what youre saying, on the BB. but sorry for the repeat question but
the ATR what is that needed for?

many traders use them for safe areas for stop losses and that is NOT what we are trying to do.

we need ATR to tell us that volatility is increasing, but for what? i am curious to know how or why use it?
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #24,457
  • Apr 20, 2011 11:35am Apr 20, 2011 11:35am
my opinion would be

increased speed of price movement gives force of direction be it traders pushing the price rapidly or orders being triggered. i notice usually speed and volatility pick up at points of reversals, and decrease when price continues on the same course of movement.

"a object will stay in motion, same speed and direction until acted upon by an outside force" isaac newton

volatility and speed of price movement usually are incresed in the presence of the outside force. am i wrong?
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #24,458
  • Edited 12:58pm Apr 20, 2011 12:19pm | Edited 12:58pm
Quoting the redlion
my opinion would be

increased speed of price movement gives force of direction be it traders pushing the price rapidly or orders being triggered. i notice usually speed and volatility pick up at points of reversals, and decrease when price continues on the same course of movement.

"a object will stay in motion, same speed and direction until acted upon by an outside force" isaac newton

volatility and speed of price movement usually are incresed in the presence of the outside force. am i wrong?
When you read Newton's rule, and then read what he wrote FTI, is the same for the current system.Simply said, "habit is habit" ... but "God plays by the rules and everything has a purpose ... and cause" because "the only thing that does not change ... is change."

PS indicator only indicates the dimension ... but only relationship create the fact.

... ATR Visual probably watch we all of us, and Bollinger Bands are "corral for mind."

Sometimes I don't know, what other people want?
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  • #24,459
  • Apr 20, 2011 1:51pm Apr 20, 2011 1:51pm
"but sorry for the repeat question but the ATR what is that needed for?"

ATR is used in a variety of ways. Never a reason to pull the trigger but more for framework. It can be used for trend following, counter trend trading, range trading and vols contracting or expanding.

Counter trend is very clear wait for a move larger than daily ATR and then possibly think about going counter. Trend following is pretty clear your objectives should be within ATR framework and may give you courage to sit tight a bit longer.

Range trading typically takes place following a major move larger than ATR. For example todays NY session called for a range type strategy. There is a lot of price tendencies that can be quantified through it relative behavior to ATR.
  • #24,460
  • Apr 20, 2011 2:06pm Apr 20, 2011 2:06pm
Quoting Guerrillawar
"but sorry for the repeat question but...
Hi Guerrillawar
I wrote "visual ATR", you set the value of ATR and I do not.No other difference ...
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