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AUD/USD

  • #29,501
  • Apr 19, 2011 10:15pm Apr 19, 2011 10:15pm
i am short
10x @ 92
3x @ 78
3x @ 68

so if we drop a little i break even...we drop a lot, i make profit :-)

note: i trade for fun will very small account 10x for me is one micro lot :-)

btw: you should get in the habit of ALWAYS puting in a stop loss even if it is 50 pips away just in case something really goes wrong you will not lose everything.

Quoting tkhlam
Im short too. just short at 1.0592.. No SL and TP below 1.04
  • #29,502
  • Apr 19, 2011 10:25pm Apr 19, 2011 10:25pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
i am short
10x @ 92
3x @ 78
3x @ 68

so if we drop a little i break even...we drop a lot, i make profit :-)

note: i trade for fun will very small account 10x for me is one micro lot :-)

btw: you should get in the habit of ALWAYS puting in a stop loss even if it is 50 pips away just in case something really goes wrong you will not lose everything.
Thanks for your advice.
  • #29,503
  • Apr 19, 2011 10:31pm Apr 19, 2011 10:31pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
i am short
10x @ 92
3x @ 78
3x @ 68

so if we drop a little i break even...we drop a lot, i make profit :-)

note: i trade for fun will very small account 10x for me is one micro lot :-)

btw: you should get in the habit of ALWAYS puting in a stop loss even if it is 50 pips away just in case something really goes wrong you will not lose everything.
Btw, what's your plan and your TP?
  • #29,504
  • Apr 19, 2011 10:37pm Apr 19, 2011 10:37pm
my stop loss is at 106.09
my tp is open...see how it goes.

if it drops a few pip and then goes sideways and then drops some more... i will move up my stop lose to about 10 pips above the highest value of the sideways, and continue until i get stopped out.

i think it will go down to 1.02x before we see much higher than now...see my chart a few days ago it has a thick red line for solid support.

Quoting tkhlam
Btw, what's your plan and your TP?
  • #29,505
  • Apr 20, 2011 2:47am Apr 20, 2011 2:47am
1.06 reached

Aussie slaughtering the bears all the way up. Congrats to those who went with the trend.
  • #29,506
  • Apr 20, 2011 4:01am Apr 20, 2011 4:01am
a slaughtering it is. These shorts aren't doing so well (I'm short too; @ 6430)
  • #29,507
  • Apr 20, 2011 4:08am Apr 20, 2011 4:08am
Came home to see the Aussie had run away....

The shorts got killed...


I expect the AUD to top at 1.0675 - 1.0677.... for within London NY trade timezones...

Happy trading...
  • #29,508
  • Apr 20, 2011 4:26am Apr 20, 2011 4:26am
i wonder if people are trying to push this AU purposely.... because, AU is making new high every mins.... then when it drops..... people just short the hell out from this pair...
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #29,509
  • Apr 20, 2011 4:30am Apr 20, 2011 4:30am
Quoting bskwak1124
i wonder if people are trying to push this AU purposely.... because, AU is making new high every mins.... then when it drops..... people just short the hell out from this pair...
nah, the Australian economy is doing fantastic.
  • #29,510
  • Apr 20, 2011 4:40am Apr 20, 2011 4:40am
Quoting aquaart
Came home to see the Aussie had run away....

The shorts got killed...


I expect the AUD to top at 1.0675 - 1.0677.... for within London NY trade timezones...

Happy trading...
Hey Quart, what is your reasoning for this level? I m very bearish from a fundamental view on the AUD, but of course this cannot be used for a timing method, unless your a large institution or a large trader who doesn't mind being down while they scale in with size. I think a turn might not be too far away, however, cannot rule out the pair getting up to 1.1000-1100.
  • #29,511
  • Apr 20, 2011 4:41am Apr 20, 2011 4:41am
Quoting bskwak1124
i wonder if people are trying to push this AU purposely.... because, AU is making new high every mins.... then when it drops..... people just short the hell out from this pair...
I'm buying on dips.
AUD all time high against USD is ~1.50. It's got a long way to go before it hits an all time high.
The USD has a lot of problems and until they embrace austerity and get the deficit under control, the USD is a clear sell. I expect to see DXY at all time lows before the summer. The US is doing de facto printing with QE which is killing the USD.
  • #29,512
  • Apr 20, 2011 4:49am Apr 20, 2011 4:49am
Quoting VedantaTrade
Hey Quart, what is your reasoning for this level? I m very bearish from a fundamental view on the AUD, but of course this cannot be used for a timing method, unless your a large institution or a large trader who doesn't mind being down while they scale in with size. I think a turn might not be too far away, however, cannot rule out the pair getting up to 1.1000-1100.
I measure weekly high low, then the median This is also half way point or where a weekly 50 fib retrace would be if it had retraced. The distance between these (high and median) I use for extending beyond the high.

So 1.0677 is the (high + (distance between high and 50 fib retrace of a weekly chart)).

It consistently makes decent predictions for me.

Another way of looking at it is:

Take (last weeks high subtract last weeks low) then divide by 2; and then add the result onto last weeks high.
  • #29,513
  • Apr 20, 2011 4:49am Apr 20, 2011 4:49am
F___KING MENTAL!!!


Glad i live in this part of the world however....
  • #29,514
  • Apr 20, 2011 4:56am Apr 20, 2011 4:56am
It would take balls to short the aussie now.
  • #29,515
  • Edited 5:05am Apr 20, 2011 5:01am | Edited 5:05am
AUD fundamentals are bad, but no where near as bad as many other nations and that is what trading currencies is all about, a comparison between two nations economies.

CNY Ok
AUD bad
NZD a little worse
GBP a little worse
EUR worse
JPY worse
USD worse

This is what i said last week about my predictions for the AUDUSD.

Quoting aquaart
My expectation on last week end, was a pull back or sideways market from the high of 1.05818 for the AUDUSD, before another trending market and takes the currency eventually through to 1.085. There are likely to be more pullbacks in between, but thats my long term expectation.

This long term expectation remains that way unless the AUD breaks 1.025 at the moment. If it pulls back that far my bullish expectation remains above 1.075
A short term long might exist at 1.0631... Not absolutely positive
  • #29,516
  • Apr 20, 2011 5:01am Apr 20, 2011 5:01am
Quoting iflyjetzzz
I'm buying on dips.
AUD all time high against USD is ~1.50. It's got a long way to go before it hits an all time high.
The USD has a lot of problems and until they embrace austerity and get the deficit under control, the USD is a clear sell. I expect to see DXY at all time lows before the summer. The US is doing de facto printing with QE which is killing the USD.
But one thing you are forgetting is the other side of the coin. China has been increasing money and credit at nearly 30% a year. There is a huge real estate bubble, residential and commercial in China. There are already signs that it is bursting.
This will not be goof for the AUD, sign may already be there that China is slowing down, and as Australia sells 30% of its exports to China that go to construction and infrastructure mostly, a slow down or crash in China will not be good for the AUD. Exporters are already finding the high AUD difficult.

Second, AUD has a larger real estate bubble that the US had, perhaps the credit quality is not as bad, but the AUD real estate bubble has burst. In my view the next move in rates is down there. I would say that the AUD is living of risk sentiments and rate differentials. Once that disappears, and it will, the AUD will be hit hard.

On the QE thing with the US. Remember that the continued success of QE is dependent on continued speculation. Central banks do not create money, they only create reserves. The banks create money through endogenous fractional reserve lending. When the banks stop or slow down the speculation in a market that is looking over stretched to say the least, then the USD could actually strengthen over the coming months more than people think.

The POMO QE money has more or less been spent ahead of time(June). The markets started to price in QE in August last year, and it might not be a stretch that they have already priced in the end of QE before June, the official ending period.
Remember if the speculators with draw, the credit expansion and leverage stops and reverses, much faster than the FED can print. Thats the nature of a fractional reserve system. Credit can created in a risk positive environment, but it can be destroyed and deflated much faster in a risk averse environment.

Just look back to 2008. The GBPJPY gains were wiped out and more in 8 months, yet it took 4-5 years to accumulate those gains. Same with the unwinding of the USD up to 2008. The GBPUSD and just about very pair wiped out 4-5 years of gains in a matter of months. There will be a time in the not too distant future, where buying the dip will catch people out.
  • #29,517
  • Apr 20, 2011 5:01am Apr 20, 2011 5:01am
Quoting mpurdy1973
my stop loss is at 106.09
my tp is open...see how it goes.

if it drops a few pip and then goes sideways and then drops some more... i will move up my stop lose to about 10 pips above the highest value of the sideways, and continue until i get stopped out.

i think it will go down to 1.02x before we see much higher than now...see my chart a few days ago it has a thick red line for solid support.
For sharing. Mine out at 1.0650...lose 58pips...Jesus
  • #29,518
  • Apr 20, 2011 5:16am Apr 20, 2011 5:16am
Quoting VedantaTrade
But one thing you are forgetting is the other side of the coin. China has been increasing money and credit at nearly 30% a year. There is a huge real estate bubble, residential and commercial in China. There are already signs that it is bursting.
This will not be goof for the AUD, sign may already be there that China is slowing down, and as Australia sells 30% of its exports to China that go to construction and infrastructure mostly, a slow down or crash in China will not be good for the AUD. Exporters are already finding the high AUD difficult....

I agree that the tides are turning against the AUD; Due to CNY, JPY toning down their need for the AUD. However I also can see that this fundamental shift has not translated into an order flow in the selling direction just yet. It will and I have no doubt about it, which is why I also said that I believe that it is much more likely to turn around or at least have a significant retrace from the 1.085 level in some other post.
  • #29,519
  • Apr 20, 2011 5:21am Apr 20, 2011 5:21am
Quoting aquaart
I agree that the tides are turning against the AUD; Due to CNY, JPY toning down their need for the AUD. However I also can see that this fundamental shift has not translated into an order flow in the selling direction just yet. It will and I have no doubt about it, which is why I also said that I believe that it is much more likely to turn around or at least have a significant retrace from the 1.085 level in some other post.
Hey Quart, thanks for explaining your target levels. Its strange I was playing around with a similar method a while back. I would take 3 period moving average of the median price, or half way between the high and low, and add the ATR above and below.

I m even holding out for higher than 1.0850, but hopefully not. However, as I said earlier, fundamental assumptions need to be met with order flow as you say, so thats why I use fundamentals with technicals. The technicals need to confirm the fundamentals. Although I have been scaling in small, as I m targetting 0.8000 and possibly 0.7700 again on the AUDUSD, so a a 100-200 pips here or there when you get in at an average price is neither here nor there./ Good luck.
  • #29,520
  • Apr 20, 2011 5:29am Apr 20, 2011 5:29am
Quoting forexmy
It would take balls to short the aussie now.
or Elly...
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