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  • #121
  • Apr 20, 2011 4:06am Apr 20, 2011 4:06am
Got my first profit target on EU...182 pips. 3.5:1 RRR. Second profit target a long way off, probably take a day or two to get there.

EF long still progressing nicely.

UF dropping fast, but still not sure about an entry on that one. Not low risk enough for me...
  • #122
  • Apr 20, 2011 4:12am Apr 20, 2011 4:12am
Quoting Lovinit
Got my first profit target on EU...182 pips. 3.5:1 RRR. Second profit target a long way off, probably take a day or two to get there.

EF long still progressing nicely.

UF dropping fast, but still not sure about an entry on that one. Not low risk enough for me...
Loveinit, Congratulations, nicely done!
  • #123
  • Apr 20, 2011 4:14am Apr 20, 2011 4:14am
Quoting Dcb
Loveinit, Congratulations, nicely done!
Thanks Dcb
  • #124
  • Apr 20, 2011 4:17am Apr 20, 2011 4:17am
Quoting Dcb
You know, I should be frustrated, but I am not. I am disappointed that I did not see that, because I should have. It was my mistake. It is part of trading. I see it as my continued growth as a trader.

So true....this is such a dynamic business. No trade is the same and no day is the same. Having a learning mindset is the only way to survive and stay sane.

"Taking responsibility" as Mark Douglas says in "Trading in the Zone".
  • #125
  • Apr 20, 2011 4:19am Apr 20, 2011 4:19am
Quoting Lovinit
Got my first profit target on EU...182 pips. 3.5:1 RRR. Second profit target a long way off, probably take a day or two to get there.

EF long still progressing nicely.

UF dropping fast, but still not sure about an entry on that one. Not low risk enough for me...
Nice!!
  • #126
  • Apr 20, 2011 5:01am Apr 20, 2011 5:01am
Quoting Dcb
You know, I should be frustrated, but I am not. I am disappointed that I did not see that, because I should have. It was my mistake. It is part of trading. I see it as my continued growth as a trader.
Your are definetely on the right path Dcb
Cutting losses short is never an esay thing to do, but in the long run math is working with you.

@LovingIt: nicely done the EUR
  • #127
  • Apr 20, 2011 8:39am Apr 20, 2011 8:39am
I see no trades worth taking this afternoon . Morning session did all the work.
  • #128
  • Apr 20, 2011 9:31am Apr 20, 2011 9:31am
Thanks for the advice AFX-UK.
  • #129
  • Apr 20, 2011 10:05pm Apr 20, 2011 10:05pm
Hey thanks darendse and beyon!

Here's my start of day analysis.

USDCHF has reached its weekly fib target at 127.0...so there'll be lots of profit taking here...and we may have reached the end of the down move, lets see. No trades for me today on this pair unless a very clear reversal shows itself.

EURUSD. Price has nicely gone through the swing high and looks like it will keep going (ideally at least until my second profit target gets hit at the 138.0 fib (aiming just shy of that at 1.47760).

EURCHF. Price stalled at resistance yesterday, but I'm fairly confident it will continue on to confirm the inverted h&s pattern on the daily. As it was a 61.8 retrace, we may get a bounce off the 50% before it goes to target, but I expect that it will cross and close above resistance first before bouncing back to the 50%. So I'm still expecting my long position to keep going nicely for a while.

Not in the mood to consider any demo trades because these live trades are enough for me right now.
  • #130
  • Apr 21, 2011 1:37am Apr 21, 2011 1:37am
Good morning all

The Euro, Aussie and Pound had another good run in the Asian session. I will not consider any trades on these today as I don't like chasing strong runs. Prefer to wait for a good enough retrace.

The USDCHF has broken key support @ 0.8900 and is making new all time lows. This presents a good oppurtunity for a short. Missed my first short entry @ 0.8870 but managed to enter on a retrace @ 0.8857.

Cheers...happy pippin
  • #131
  • Apr 21, 2011 2:21am Apr 21, 2011 2:21am
I do not see any patterns that interest me at this time. I am watching at the EUR/CHF to see if it comes down to what I see as a support level at 1.28839. If does it will give me an opportunity to buy. It is tough waiting.
  • #132
  • Apr 21, 2011 2:29am Apr 21, 2011 2:29am
I just bought the EUR/JPY.
  • #133
  • Apr 21, 2011 2:50am Apr 21, 2011 2:50am
USDCHF broke next support @ 0.8840 (S1). 1st scale out of profit @ 0.8827 done.....watching and waiting (just like Phineas and Ferb )
  • #134
  • Apr 21, 2011 3:09am Apr 21, 2011 3:09am
I just bought the EUR/CHF.
  • #135
  • Apr 21, 2011 9:05pm Apr 21, 2011 9:05pm
Hey,

I have a question regarding trading systems drawdowns and how to profit of them.
Suppose you have 4 trading systems and you would have done an extensive research on these, regarding their parameters(expectancy, maximum drawdowns etc).
You would also have run an extensive monte-carlo simulation with, say, 1 million runs.
The results may be:
System 1 max drawdown: 14% of the start balance
System 2 max drawdown: 24% of the start balance
System 3 max drawdown: 44% of the start balance
System 4 max drawdown: 4% of the start balance

Now assume that would have done forwardtests a couple of months with all systems, but on a demo account.
Lets say that the current drawdowns on the demo accounts for the systems would be:
System 1: 10%
System 2: 3%
System 3: 35%
System 4: 1%
As you can see, System 1 and 3 are near their maximum drawdowns from the monte-carlo simulation.
To me it seems that it would be wise to go live trading with System 1 and 3, since they will probably not go further down.
What do you think about this?

Best regards
  • #136
  • May 1, 2011 6:31pm May 1, 2011 6:31pm
Greetings Everyone,

Just checking in. Been on Holiday for the past 2 weeks for the Easter break.

Seems like it has gone a little quiet in here. I'll be back trading again on Wednesday.

See you all then.

AFX
  • #137
  • May 2, 2011 5:23am May 2, 2011 5:23am
Good morning AFX-UK,

I sold the USD/CHF at 0.86891 and exited at 0.86719 with a 17.20 PIP gain.

I bought the EUR/USD at 1.48245 and exited at 1.48446 with a 20.10 PIP gain.

I was concerned that the U.S. dollar would strengthen because of what is in the news this morning. I followed what the charts were telling me, but I was very cautious.
  • #138
  • May 2, 2011 6:56am May 2, 2011 6:56am
Hi AFX

Glad to hear you're back, was worried this thread was lost..

Hi Dcb

Some nice trades....I also traded the USDCHF this morning(short)...0.8698. Still in the trade. I added to an existing position I had open since last week as we're still going with the trend.

Also wanted to take the same Euro trade, but missed my entry. Did not attempt a re-entry.

Cheers.
  • #139
  • May 2, 2011 7:35am May 2, 2011 7:35am
Quoting darendse
Hi AFX

Glad to hear you're back, was worried this thread was lost..

Hi Dcb

Some nice trades....I also traded the USDCHF this morning(short)...0.8698. Still in the trade. I added to an existing position I had open since last week as we're still going with the trend.

Also wanted to take the same Euro trade, but missed my entry. Did not attempt a re-entry.

Cheers.
Thank you darendse,
I was cautious because of the news this morning, and I did not know how the market would respond. I did not not stay in the trade, because I am still work at another job for now. I knew I could not monitor the trade so I exited.

Good luck in your trades.
  • #140
  • May 2, 2011 4:17pm May 2, 2011 4:17pm
Hi Guys,

Very nice trading today.

Looking at the charts I can see some very nice setups that could have been taken had I been sat in front of my screen.

Can't wait to get back into the swing of things on Wednesday.

This thread will not get lost... hopefully :-) As long as I have time I will post in here...

Have a good trading day tomorrow.

Best

AFX
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