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What happened?

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 6:15am Mar 7, 2006 4:28am | Edited 6:15am
Hello

"What happened?"

I often ask this question after a sharp movement on one of my trading pairs! In the forex calender there is nothing planned for this moment. How can I find out what moved the rates? Last example GBP movement some 6 hours ago. I found no information about the possible reason for it. If I could - maybe I would forsee it next time!

Do you have any idea? Are the moves like this (it is night on the island!) explainable at all?
time is money! Z
  • #2
  • Mar 7, 2006 6:58am Mar 7, 2006 6:58am
Quoting Zazzy
Hello

"What happened?"

I often ask this question after a sharp movement on one of my trading pairs! In the forex calender there is nothing planned for this moment. How can I find out what moved the rates? Last example GBP movement some 6 hours ago. I found no information about the possible reason for it. If I could - maybe I would forsee it next time!

Do you have any idea? Are the moves like this (it is night on the island!) explainable at all?
It doesn't always take news to move the prices. If the "operators" feel like taking out a bunch of stops at a certain price, they will do it. That can move prices a significant amount. Im not saying specifically that is what moved the GBP,that would be one example, IMO.

Thanks;

JohnFX
  • #3
  • Mar 7, 2006 7:21am Mar 7, 2006 7:21am
Hawkish comments by the President of St Louis Fed William Poole stating that the Fed may become even more aggressive in its rate hike campaign if US data proves robust.
  • #4
  • Mar 7, 2006 7:45am Mar 7, 2006 7:45am
how did you find this?

this kind of event is definitely not forseeable
time is money! Z
  • #5
  • Mar 7, 2006 8:03am Mar 7, 2006 8:03am
Welcome to Forex. Lot's of things are unforeseeable.

The pound, meanwhile, was lower after a somewhat depressing survey of the retail sector released overnight.

In its monthly survey, the British Retail Consortium said like-for-like sales, which strips out the impact of changes in floor space, climbed 0.6 pct from last February against expectations of a 1.0 pct improvement.



Additionally, the rise in February comes on the back of a weak comparison with the same month in 2005, when sales actually registered a fall.



The news rekindled hopes of a UK rate later in the year.



'The broad message is that conditions on the high street are not as tough as that experienced through most of last year but not as good as that seen during the final quarter of 2005,' said John Butler at HSBC.
----------------------------------------


Changes or potential changes in Rate expectations are huge movers of currency prices.

Good Luck
  • #6
  • Edited 8:29am Mar 7, 2006 8:07am | Edited 8:29am
Quoting Zazzy
Hello

"What happened?"

I often ask this question after a sharp movement on one of my trading pairs! In the forex calender there is nothing planned for this moment. How can I find out what moved the rates? Last example GBP movement some 6 hours ago. I found no information about the possible reason for it. If I could - maybe I would forsee it next time!

Do you have any idea? Are the moves like this (it is night on the island!) explainable at all?
check out what the US bond market is doing. rates are at 2 year highs, that is what is moving the dollar right now...
Attached Image
Relax and be happy.
  • #7
  • Mar 7, 2006 10:36am Mar 7, 2006 10:36am
Quoting merlin
check out what the US bond market is doing. rates are at 2 year highs, that is what is moving the dollar right now...
How do you use this to trade with Merlin?
  • #8
  • Mar 7, 2006 4:57pm Mar 7, 2006 4:57pm
Quoting bluemonkey
How do you use this to trade with Merlin?
Futures man, bond futures The 3 points move down in the left chart (From 113 to 110), which is the 30yr bonds future can result in $3,000 in profit (Or in loss if you were long the future contract and didn't close your position of course)...


Thanks,

Nader
  • #9
  • Mar 7, 2006 9:35pm Mar 7, 2006 9:35pm
Quoting narafa
Futures man, bond futures The 3 points move down in the left chart (From 113 to 110), which is the 30yr bonds future can result in $3,000 in profit (Or in loss if you were long the future contract and didn't close your position of course)...


Thanks,

Nader
I think I need to move to the bond markets.
  • #10
  • Mar 7, 2006 9:43pm Mar 7, 2006 9:43pm
Quoting bluemonkey
I think I need to move to the bond markets.
it aint all its cracked up to be, ive been battling treasuries for the past year and it hasnt been fun. this latest break is barely enough to heal my wounds
Relax and be happy.
  • #11
  • Mar 7, 2006 10:02pm Mar 7, 2006 10:02pm
Merlin and others,

Do you know of any way to get a Treasury data feed for free. I'm assuming you must have an account to access the chart data at CBOT, but do any free sources come to mind,

Thanks,
time88




Quoting merlin
it aint all its cracked up to be, ive been battling treasuries for the past year and it hasnt been fun. this latest break is barely enough to heal my wounds
  • #12
  • Mar 7, 2006 11:58pm Mar 7, 2006 11:58pm
Quoting Zazzy
Hello

"What happened?"

I often ask this question after a sharp movement on one of my trading pairs! In the forex calender there is nothing planned for this moment. How can I find out what moved the rates? Last example GBP movement some 6 hours ago. I found no information about the possible reason for it. If I could - maybe I would forsee it next time!

Do you have any idea? Are the moves like this (it is night on the island!) explainable at all?
I had been sort of expecting this move. The currencies move to a framework that appears to be 'sticky', for want of a better word. My 'Absolute Fibonacci' framework shows this. It further seems that currencies have to move through 'sets' on the framework before trends change. The GBP had made two dips on the 22nd and the 27th February, but these were incomplete moves according to the pattern that the currency was moving to. It had to go down to 1.7369 or 1.7347 to complete the move, which it did just now, very decisively.

This will probably make no sense at all to most people, but that's what I saw.
Attached Image
The framework is there; we just have to work on our frame of mind.
  • #13
  • Last Post: Mar 8, 2006 10:33am Mar 8, 2006 10:33am
Quoting merlin
it aint all its cracked up to be, ive been battling treasuries for the past year and it hasnt been fun. this latest break is barely enough to heal my wounds
Hi Merlin, you probably caught this but just in case you didn't, thought you might like to know.

Today GMT
16:27 FOREX: ECB Study Explains the Conundrum in Treasury Yields] San Francisco, March 8. Dow Jones reports on an ECB study, released today, determining that the Japanese buying of US Treasuries lowered three-year treasury yields by 65 basis points over the period of 1999-2004. The study suggests some explanation for the so-called "conundrum" cited by the Fed whereby US bond yields remained subdued despite higher cash rates. Overall, the reserve accumulation is said to have compressed spreads anywhere from 30 bp to 200 bp according to various studies. US Fed custody holdings, which are reflection of central bank holdings of treasuries and agency debt, have continued to reach record highs in 2006, rising above $1.582 tln just last week. The Dow Jones report notes the IMF data suggesting that the USD accounts for 66% of total global foreign reserve holdings.
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