Trading For A Living

Hi AFX,

thanks for your statement.
I must say this is exactly how i see this topic.
Was just wondering about the USDX, so thanks again and good trading for the upcoming week

Best regards

Morning All,

OK so this morning it is looking like another day to short the Euro.

Currently I am watching the EURUSD and EURJPY. I also have the CHFJPY and GBPCHF on my radar just for good measure.

On Friday I took the EURNZD and NZDUSD as slightly longer term trades, both of which shot nicely into the money, however yesterdays NZD data reversed those gains quite violently so both are just hanging around break even at the moment.

Lets see how it goes :-)

Hi AFX

I am finding it difficult to determine market direction or sentiment this morning. So after staring at the charts since 6am GMT this morning, this is my take......

Euro - Downside bias, but I am very cautious to take any position.
Aussie - Neutral, is consolidating.
Pound - Has broken the triangle on H4 to the downside, but with no conviction....also cautious here.
Swissy - Neutral, also consolidating.

Cheers.

I agree. I am looking at the H4 bars, and I expect the EUR/USD will find support in the 1.4300 level. I may be totally wrong, so I am waiting for more evidence of the chart.

Yip agree with 1.4300, the EURUSD H4 candles have these long tails, which I interpret as bearish failure. There are sellers, but just they're getting pushed back by the bulls.

Yes, and the USD/CHF is just the opposite with the long tail. The price is going up, put I am not convinced of the conviction. I want to see what it does at the 0.89800 to 0.9000 area.

I continue to monitor the markets. I want to catch the major move for the week, so I am waiting for that setup. I do not have a bias one way or the other so I am waiting for what I see in the charts. The USD/CHF may go up, and the EUR/USD may go down, but I do not have a conviction one way of the other. That is why I am monitoring and waiting.

Hey guys,

for those of you not living in Europe(and not watching the news) and wondering about the huge drop of the EUR across the board.
This is caused by the election result of Finnland where a rather radical party has gained 20%.
This party is against the € and against the bail out of other countries like Spain, Greece etc.
So the investors are scared that a new crisis of the € my evolve.
To me, this is more like an overreaction of the market since Finnland does not play a major role in the European Union.
IMHO one should consider buying the € at significant support levels of the past on a daily chart.

Just my 2 cents and happy trading

Thx Beyon

I got hurt in that drop...it was not pleasant .

Managed to recoup most of my losses though...by following the momentum.

Thank you Beyon,
I an in the U.S., and not watching the European news this morning. Thank you for your explanation. I was curious about what caused this move this morning.

I just looked at the charts. The EUR/USD looked like it went though some volatility between 1300 - 1500 GMT. I see there has not been any support established.

not only that, but it was rumoured that greece's debt has to be restructured in order for greece to stay afloat and not default, meaning that the lenders will possibly not get all their money back. I personally think that this was the actual cause of the move, not Finland.

Hi Custos,

well, it depends which news we are watching, I think .
To me it appeared that the greece dept crisis was raised two days ago and so it would already priced in.
Anyway, would you agree that this drop is some kind of overreaction?
It might be a good chance to reenter in the €-strength?!

Best regards

well, I am also more bullish on the eur than on the usd. But who knows, if greece really were to default, then I would become bearish very fast.

Speaking of the news; I saw that S&P changed its outlook of the U.S. to Negative from Stable. The problem is the U.S. Congress and the President are not facing and acting on the U.S. debt and spending. The President and his administration, such as the Treasury Assistant Secretary, blowing of this will not help. I am watching the USD/CHF to see if it is ready to start going down, but I have not placed an order. I do have an open long position for the NZD/USD. My entry price is 0.78875.

Well, my long position for NZD/USD did not continue. I did not place a limit order, because I wanted to see how far it would go. Unfortnately, it did not go anywhere, but I did move my stop loss into the gain column. I was stopped out at 0.78917 at 2119 GMT with a 4.2 PIP gain.

Very interesting thread guys! Was good to know what caused the horrifying spikes yesterday, thanks Beyon. Fortunately I didn't get knocked out. I am trading 3 pairs live and a few pairs on demo. I enter my trades on the H1 chart, but reference the weekly, daily and H4 charts for context.

I use fibs for my targets and the 21 EMA for my set ups looking for confluence of s/r levels (pivots, MAs, fibs and envelopes). I get to my charts for the Asian session and trade through to London Close.

So this is where I am at so far this week.

Demo:

GU. I took the GU short yesterday at 1.62971, price reached my first take profit, just above the last swing low...still in on that same trade, now with stop at BE, looking to see if price reaches the H4 fib 161.8 level for my final profit target. As we've had a lot of nice lower lows and failed retests of the high, I'm still bearish.

AU. I was waiting for the H4 flag set up to break short, which it did yesterday, got in at 1.05259, still in. It's done a nice retest of the flag up channel and continued down, so I'm feeling positive about that. First target at 1.04083, just above the swing low of the flag, second target is shy of the H4 161.8 level at 1.03814.

NZ. Was waiting for a higher low on the NZ top, but it didn't retrace enough for me to feel comfortable about getting in, so I missed that nice move down.

As always...my demo account seems to be doing so much better than my live account!

On my live account - Yesterday I was looking for a short on the EU and EURCHF but neither retraced enough for me to feel comfortable entering...shame those were nice long moves down. I was waiting for a long to set up on the USDCHF, but nothing happened till late in the day, I got in after we had those large moves and the market showed it was still interested in moving up...but got stopped out overnight.

Today.

USDCHF. Now I am waiting for it to set up long again, prefer a close above the Weekly PP for an entry long. But I'll take an entry shy of that if the candle closes without a wick.

EU. Expecting a retest of resistance after such a long move down. However on the daily we closed above support with a 61.8 retrace, so the retest may turn back into a bull trade. I think this could go either way, so depending on what the set up looks like I will need to be careful about bias.

EURCHF. Daily has reached the right shoulder level of a possible inverted head and shoulders. If price turns here then it should be good for a long. Waiting to see if we get a clear confirmed reversal.

Hey I must say I am enjoying your postings. you, as well as the others posting here, seem like a very competent trader. I was wondering if someone here could give me some advice since I am still a junior member and cannot start threads yet. I am in the beginnings of becoming a trader in Toronto, Canada. Now from what I know the London session seems to provide the largest movements out of all the sessions in the day but that would be 3am to 12pm my time. My question is how should I approach trading from a time perspective? Should I try and get up at 3 in the morning to catch the mad pips or just take the lesser moves in the US session. I am asking this from a "trading for a living" Perspective. I thank anyone that could provide some advice to me.

Either trade longer-term, or wake up at 3. Intra-day trading in the forex market without trading the london session doesn't make any sense. You would come to the party when it is already over.

Morning all

I am starting a little earlier this morning.....here is my view for today...

Euro....Short momentum set to continue, yesterday's fall took the price right down to bullish trendline on H4. D1 opened below bullish trend-line. M5 PA this morning suggests it will be broken. I opened short position @ 1.42155.

Aussie...Triple top on D1 formed. After breaking rising wedge on H4 short momentum set to continue based on this mornings M5 PA. Opened short @ 1.04592.

Pound.....no comment. I am sitting on sideline.

Swissy....Triple bottom on D1. Formed a flag on H4. I am waiting for long signal.

Cheers.