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Fail Better

  • #41
  • Apr 18, 2011 6:01am Apr 18, 2011 6:01am
Quoting the_wizard
Being selective is the key. Here are a couple of levels that are high probability turning points. You have to watch how price trades into these areas though.
I have that EURUSD in my radar...it's quite there...ATR is confirming....let's see if it touches 1,42500
Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
  • #42
  • Apr 18, 2011 6:29am Apr 18, 2011 6:29am
Quoting Chris_B
I have that EURUSD in my radar...it's quite there...ATR is confirming....let's see if it touches 1,42500
LOL

Not after the S&P pulled that stunt...

I've pulled my order. If the Euro can't hold bids on a piece of news like that, I'm standing aside.

Stay safe.
  • #43
  • Apr 18, 2011 6:32am Apr 18, 2011 6:32am
Quoting Chris_B
Lately NZD has made a very good bounce...in my demo I have been stopped out right at the turning pip :-)
LOL, unlucky! I had a short on NZDUSD last week friday afternoon which I ended up exiting at breakeven after it moved 30 pips into profit and retraced. Had I not moved to break even, my SL was sitting at 8005 so I too would have been taken out at the turning point
  • #44
  • Apr 18, 2011 6:36am Apr 18, 2011 6:36am
Quoting the_wizard
LOL

Not after the S&P pulled that stunt...

I've pulled my order. If the Euro can't hold bids on a piece of news like that, I'm standing aside.

Stay safe.
Thank you!
Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
  • #45
  • Apr 18, 2011 6:56am Apr 18, 2011 6:56am
This might become a nice short trade...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzd touch trade.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #46
  • Apr 18, 2011 7:06am Apr 18, 2011 7:06am
EURCHF Daily, looks like a good flip zone, was well respected in the past.

P.S. Wiz, do you use some automatic trade management EA/Indicator? It looks to me that it can help trading this way? Say get the trade to BE when it reaches the first trouble area. Like EURUSD did today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf.png Size: 22 KB
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #47
  • Apr 18, 2011 7:59am Apr 18, 2011 7:59am
Quoting madboy
This might become a nice short trade...

Wow.Wizard,this stuff really works,I was not a very big fan of 1h tf but now I'm gonna watch this areas like a lion.
Thanks for the webinar,look forward for the other one's
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzd tt 2.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #48
  • Apr 18, 2011 8:05am Apr 18, 2011 8:05am
Quoting madboy
Wow.Wizard,this stuff really works,I was not a very big fan of 1h tf but now I'm gonna watch this areas like a lion.
Thanks for the webinar,look forward for the other one's

Nice trade
  • #49
  • Apr 18, 2011 8:16am Apr 18, 2011 8:16am
Quoting madboy
Wow.Wizard,this stuff really works...
Course it works, what do you think I'm doing, posting here for the fun of it lol

You need to be picky though. Look at the EUR/USD, the reason you pull your order was the way it came straight back to the level in light of that news.

You need to be alert :-)

Also, nothing wrong with admitting you have no idea what price is about to do next.

As they say, not having a position, is a position.
  • #50
  • Apr 18, 2011 8:28am Apr 18, 2011 8:28am
Quoting the_wizard
Course it works, what do you think I'm doing, posting here for the fun of it lol

You need to be picky though. Look at the EUR/USD, the reason you pull your order was the way it came straight back to the level in light of that news.

You need to be alert :-)

Also, nothing wrong with admitting you have no idea what price is about to do next.

As they say, not having a position, is a position.
You was completely right!! Thanks for these insights...

If the daily closes where it is now do you see a good level a retest of 1,42500 for a short?
Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
  • #51
  • Apr 18, 2011 8:36am Apr 18, 2011 8:36am
Quoting the_wizard
Course it works, what do you think I'm doing, posting here for the fun of it lol

You need to be picky though. Look at the EUR/USD, the reason you pull your order was the way it came straight back to the level in light of that news.

You need to be alert :-)

Also, nothing wrong with admitting you have no idea what price is about to do next.

As they say, not having a position, is a position.
I'll be as alert as I can be,and I'll post some charts from time to time if it's alright with you.
  • #52
  • Apr 18, 2011 8:42am Apr 18, 2011 8:42am
Quoting madboy
I'll be as alert as I can be,and I'll post some charts from time to time if it's alright with you.
For sure madboy. Get involved!

I don't know why this thread was moved to the journal section. I'm trying to talk strategy here!
  • #53
  • Apr 18, 2011 11:24am Apr 18, 2011 11:24am
Hi Tom, regarding the aud/jpy, 86.67 looked like a good buy area. In my paper trade books this is a loss. It happens, nothing special about it, but I was just wondering if you see some reason not to trade it which I do not see. The velocity with which the price was coming down to the area, seemed good. Thanks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #54
  • Apr 18, 2011 2:18pm Apr 18, 2011 2:18pm
posted dis on another thread, but decided to post here as this is what Tom showed on the webinar yday.....sorry was late ( stuck in traffic, cant wait for next Sunday's)
been trading like dis for a while now, just trying to put finishing touches on SL & proper MM...testing some possible options
cheers guys & thnx Tom
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Simplicity is the key to success
  • #55
  • Apr 19, 2011 12:29am Apr 19, 2011 12:29am
Quoting soso
EURCHF Daily, looks like a good flip zone, was well respected in the past.

P.S. Wiz, do you use some automatic trade management EA/Indicator? It looks to me that it can help trading this way? Say get the trade to BE when it reaches the first trouble area. Like EURUSD did today.
this one I like, what do you think Wiz?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 19-04-2011 6-16-57 PM.jpg Size: 181 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 19-04-2011 6-26-21 PM.jpg Size: 211 KB
  • #56
  • Apr 19, 2011 1:28am Apr 19, 2011 1:28am
This one looks good. Nice bounce zones on both long & short sides.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.png Size: 21 KB
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #57
  • Edited 2:28am Apr 19, 2011 1:40am | Edited 2:28am
Quoting madboy
This might become a nice short trade...
It became an excellent short trade madboy.

However, always be aware of what is happening on the higher timeframes as this will help you manage the trades in terms of your exits.

Exits are one of the hardest elements in trading.

Many traders get caught in the trap of only watching one time frame and playing the levels but you need to be aware of the bigger picture.

So, lets look at the chart again. This is the level you highlighted. The market rallies into previous H1 support. If we just stay looking at the H1, we know we are with the trend and so we are probably ticking a box in our heads there too. Some people will just get involved straight off the bat at this point.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #58
  • Apr 19, 2011 2:01am Apr 19, 2011 2:01am
If we look at this same pair on the daily time frame the picture is less bearish in the short term.

The market has sold off into formidable support around 1.3200 and has posted a bullish engulfing that shows strong demand.

The way I look at this, the lower time frame setup (H1) is against the higher timeframe (D1) setup.

Can we still take it? Yes.

But in these situations I make sure I don't overstay my welcome and will take action as the market trades into problem areas.

What kind of action is down to the individual. You can take complete profit. You can take partial profit. You can begin to trail a stop.

My preferred approach when I am against the higher TF is just to take full profit.

This requires the trader to stop worrying about "what might be".

Back in the day, I never used to be comfortable just getting out at the first level because I always used to be thinking "what if this collapses here...if I trail my stop I could catch a huge move" and then the market would just come back time and time again and take out my trailing stop (even if it later made the big move I was hoping for).

Same goes for breakeven. I sincerely doubt that the times I've caught a BIG move and made good money would get anywhere even NEAR compensating me for the profit I've given back by seeing a breakeven or a wide trailing stop hit.

Here's something to think about: Is breakeven really a free trade?

Many traders think it is. They get in at a good area, the market moves into profit for them, it comes into another potential "trouble area" and they think "well, if I get to breakeven, I can't take a loser on this and it might go further".

But giving back profit is still taking a loss.

Profit on paper is still profit. Especially when all you have to do to realise it is click the mouse button.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud_nzd.jpg Size: 74 KB
  • #59
  • Apr 19, 2011 2:09am Apr 19, 2011 2:09am
Quoting soso
P.S. Wiz, do you use some automatic trade management EA/Indicator? It looks to me that it can help trading this way? Say get the trade to BE when it reaches the first trouble area. Like EURUSD did today.
No, I don't.

Why?

Because traders need to react to constantly shifting probabilities in a constantly moving market.

EA's can't think for themselves.

I can.
  • #60
  • Apr 19, 2011 2:17am Apr 19, 2011 2:17am
Quoting the_wizard
Same goes for breakeven. I sincerely doubt that the times I've caught a BIG move and made good money would get anywhere even NEAR compensating me for the profit I've given back by seeing a breakeven or a wide trailing stop hit.

Here's something to think about: Is breakeven really a free trade?

Many traders think it is. They get in at a good area, the market moves into profit for them, it comes into another potential "trouble area" and they think "well, if I get to breakeven, I can't take a loser on this and it might go further".

But giving...
This is really a good point I think...many times we get greedy and just move the stop to BE hoping for a big move...that happens only a small % of times...
I did something similar yesterday on my demo...
I took that AUDNZD trade but on the long side...50% off at the first trouble area and then I trailed my stop instead of taking my profit at the obvious point (where others entered their short trade)...
At the end..my trailing has been hit and I "lost" 90 pips of profit
Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
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