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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #93,841
  • Apr 16, 2011 1:20pm Apr 16, 2011 1:20pm
Hi James & Mike

Have been waching your thread a while and are very thankful for sharing your experience.

I would like to hear your view on the AUD. As per the weekly chart it looks almost like an schoolbook turn. But having the wild ride of the metals in mind, I am not so really sure.

Thanks in advance.

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  • #93,842
  • Apr 16, 2011 1:35pm Apr 16, 2011 1:35pm
Quoting john225
Nice trades stewrigh keep going

As i remember Dr.Alexander Elder is trading like you too. The only difference is that he is using i think an 21 EMA the Force Index and he is watching in two time frames (W1, and D1). And he is very profitable with it.

I tried many Expert Advisors and Trading systems. While others made many money others like me lost on this system because it doesn´t fit to my style. If it works for others it doesn´t mean that it has to work for you.
And you only need 1 or 2 trades like that a year and you can make very good money.
  • #93,843
  • Apr 16, 2011 1:43pm Apr 16, 2011 1:43pm
great post wiz. blindly trading trendlines will kill you. you have to take the "blindly" out of it.

trendlines are great if you add them to what we already do and its not hard to prove it to yourself either.

how many times have all of you thought you had finally found the key to your trading? you excitedly race to start doing some chart time and your quickly slapped back into reality.

it looked good but on closer inspection it didnt pan out.

the problem for most of you is your looking for something to "work" 10 times a week. been there folks. more chart time than 50 of you combined.

this problem comes from a small account size that "needs" 10 trades a week to grow like you want it to.

this is how the masses get killed and i do mean the masses.


the solution is right in front of your face but you never see it because this solution does not compute with your brain AS A SOLUTION.

so what is it? simple.

first you have to forget about account size. how many times have i told you guys that trading with a small account is almost always doomed for failure? its true. sorry. the only exception is the rare individual that can trade with the same mentallity and emotion with a small account as he can with a large one. damn sure wasnt me.

The solution is simply to find something that occurs a "couple" of times a month that "always" works. ive given you "that something" here. its up to you to practice and get good enough to rec those that work AND HOW TO TRADE THEM. learn the material until you can accomplish the outline in post 1 and the only thing that can stop you is you.

that pretty much sums up this entire thread from my viewpoint.

its how i trade and its what ive been telling people for 6 years.

i can say one thing with certainty. your chances of making it in this business long term are ZERO if your trading a small account with a small account mentallity.

JIM







Quoting the_wizard
I in no way, whatsoever, mean this with any disrespect but buying off a TL or selling if it breaks through has to be, imho one of the simplest ways to lose money over time for the reasons that Mike explains above.

I sat with a guy that had this same strategy in the Dax. He used to sit there and say "why does everyone read the book - you guys sit there like loons all day watching numbers, I just buy a touch of a TL or I sell a break of one as long as it's a significant TL. Simple!"

He was at that for 2 years. Made money. Lost money. But on...
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  • #93,844
  • Apr 16, 2011 1:54pm Apr 16, 2011 1:54pm
Nice Post James

So how big should the live account be in your eyes?
  • #93,845
  • Edited 6:56pm Apr 16, 2011 2:17pm | Edited 6:56pm
Hi All

How does AU weekly IPB look to you guys ? I wish it had formed at 1.05 rather than above it.

I can see some MACD Divergence as well.

Many Thanks
0908

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  • #93,846
  • Apr 16, 2011 2:21pm Apr 16, 2011 2:21pm
only you can answer that john.

ive told this story before but i will do it again in short version.

i lost 6 figures over 8 years of hell.

i quit.

i demoed and saved my money for roughly 2 years.

when i came back i had proven i could do it and i had enough money that just 2 or 3 small trades a month made me what i had been used to making in 6 months and sometimes a year.

i never looked back. the goal after that was to just get better and more picky.

jim

Quoting john225
Nice Post James

So how big should the live account be in your eyes?
  • #93,847
  • Apr 16, 2011 2:36pm Apr 16, 2011 2:36pm
Quoting james16
great post wiz. blindly trading trendlines will kill you. you have to take the "blindly" out of it.

trendlines are great if you add them to what we already do and its not hard to prove it to yourself either.

how many times have all of you thought you had finally found the key to your trading? you excitedly race to start doing some chart time and your quickly slapped back into reality.

it looked good but on closer inspection it didnt pan out.

the problem for most of you is your looking for something to "work" 10 times a week. been there...
Fantastic post Jim.

The problem with a small account is you always do one of two things:

a) either use sensible risk management but overtrade trying to grow the account quickly

b) trade picky but use way too much risk to overcompensate for the fact that you are only doing 1 or 2 trades a week.

Both are a recipe for disaster.

I did actually start with a very small account and have built that into what I use today but I won't hide the fact I took big risk and I got lucky because I hit a good run straight off the bat. Now some people will think "Ah, well Wiz did it, so I can do it too...". Maybe you can. But it took me seven years of trying before I got "lucky".

Thing is about trading is that there is skill and there is luck. This is present in all trading. No matter how good you are, there is always an element of luck on an individual trade because outcomes are always uncertain. Even the best setups can fail.

The aim of the game is to make sure you are never in a position where your survival is dependent on luck.

I will say one more thing about J16 and my learning process in trading. It's the simple stuff that takes the time.

Learning how to draw PPZ's: Took me a few days.

Learning about confluence: Took me a few weeks.

Learning the PA setups and their nuances: Took me a few months.

Learning to apply common sense: Took me seven years.
  • #93,848
  • Apr 16, 2011 2:49pm Apr 16, 2011 2:49pm
Hi all!

This is my first post and I just wanna say thanks to James16, all seniors and others.. I have learned a lot in these months while i was reading this thread.. I'm still on demo, just waiting for right moment and enough knowledge for live acc. (don't wanna lose any money on ''stupid'' trades ).

Tnx again and have fun
M
  • #93,849
  • Apr 16, 2011 2:54pm Apr 16, 2011 2:54pm
Quoting ghous
Chris!

Good to see you stop by bud.

How great would it be to get the good ol' gang back. The Chrissies, and the Jiggies, and Tias, and the Bundies and all the other great souls...

g.
Ghous!

So glad you saw the (hint) my friend...LOL

It's good to see you're going strong here and I hope with all I am trading is being kind to you.

It would be great to see the souls you mention but I must say, although I haven't had much time to read up here, it's obvious that the tone and quality of this thread and it's members has continued to be of high standards. I'm very impressed with the wizard and a few others here. I've always touted this as the best thread on FF. My opinion hasn't changed.

Anyway, we'll have to find some time to catch up buddy.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #93,850
  • Apr 16, 2011 3:04pm Apr 16, 2011 3:04pm
Quoting mbqb11
Welcome Grinder+EV

Ha I can tell by your poker name....

Thanks for the reply Mike. If you've been away for 7 years you wouldn't recognize online poker. With all the legal clampdown in the US, the pool of fish has shrunk significantly. You're lucky to find 1 fish at a 6 max table anymore. Video training sites have made good players into better players. Things aren't like the good ol' days but there is hope that legislation may be forthcoming in the US. Pstars and full tilt have blocked Washington state players so I'm essentially out of business.

So...I'm eagerly reading this thread (only 6000+ pages left ) Currently feeling overwhelmed but I suppose that's normal for noobs here.

I can't help but feel that 8 tabling online poker at 100 hands/hr hasn't given me some experience that might help with trading. You don't miss that??? Plus the money management piece, probabilities, psychology, etc.

I feel like I've found the right place to start here.
  • #93,851
  • Apr 16, 2011 3:14pm Apr 16, 2011 3:14pm
gme on weekly with a nice breakout. retest already done on the daily. friday's close was very bullish, closing at the high. voulme supports the move. 28.80 and brn 30 as next targets...
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #93,852
  • Apr 16, 2011 3:16pm Apr 16, 2011 3:16pm
Quoting james16
wow man whats up?

jim

LOL...thought I fell off the Earth did you? "Almost" but not quite...LOL

How are you Jim?

It's good to see the best FF thread alive and kicking man. To answer your question...? A LOT! But in short, just working my way full circle from starting my FOREX learning here. I'm about 1/3 of the way there with a long way to go yet.

But after learning what you and the gang teach here, adapting it (through MUCH trial and error) to lower TF's due to my small account, I now know I can make a living trading once I build my account to a size that will allow it on just a few trades a month or less. The results of my first full year of live trading was I averaged just a sliver over 11% a month. But that was VERY aggressive and stressful. Far more of each than I want...LOL

So that's what I'm working on now. Driving a rig for income and slowly adding funds to my account as I can. As a company driver I simply don't have the time or access to trade while out there and I'm usually out for a couple months at a time. But once I buy my own rig (in about 5 months) that will change.

Chris
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #93,853
  • Apr 16, 2011 4:34pm Apr 16, 2011 4:34pm
Wow your last recent posts are really gold for all the new ones like me. (Of course there is sooo much value in this whole thread as well!!!!)

Quick question for the seniors around here
How do you recommend to start out for beginners.
Take a few pairs and really get to know them and watch how they behave and what story they want to tell or take more pairs and wait till they give interesting PA at important areas?

Thank you so much guys for all this work that you put into this!! I am so glad I found this place
  • #93,854
  • Apr 16, 2011 7:04pm Apr 16, 2011 7:04pm
Quoting jarroo
Not bad soavesoave.

Its a little small but the story is there. .. . .off a PPZ level acting as Support.

Clear target . .would like to see Price close above that target and/or Price break through and stay above that target.

Looks like I forgot to mention the 137.00 Round Number as a target or FTA.

PA targets or FTAs are .. .previous bar Highs/Lows, PPZ level, BRNs, RNs.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #93,855
  • Apr 16, 2011 7:17pm Apr 16, 2011 7:17pm
I haven't figured out how to post charts yet, but if I did it would be of the EURO/USD daily chart that has an apparent (at least to me) box forming.

Would that be the initial criteria, a box breakout?
Then you go from there, checking the other important indications ( not indicators) then dialing down the time scale?

Thanking you in advance

LR
  • #93,856
  • Apr 16, 2011 7:22pm Apr 16, 2011 7:22pm
Jarroo,

May I ask, Is your Avatar a Mandelbrot Set?


Down the rabbit hole,
LR
  • #93,857
  • Edited 10:43pm Apr 16, 2011 8:12pm | Edited 10:43pm
Quoting Miko1
Wow your last recent posts are really gold for all the new ones like me. (Of course there is sooo much value in this whole thread as well!!!!)

Quick question for the seniors around here
How do you recommend to start out for beginners.
Take a few pairs and really get to know them and watch how they behave and what story they want to tell or take more pairs and wait till they give interesting PA at important areas?

Thank you so much guys for all this work that you put into this!! I am so glad I found this place
Hey Miko,

This is what Mike says:

Instead of just watching a few pairs and waiting long periods of time just for the right setup (which may test your patience resulting in you shooting from the hip) why don't you follow more pairs, exposing yourself to more potential setups. PA is PA on any chart in any market on any time frame (stick to the higher TFs)

You can even wander outside of FX just to identify more setups.

This is how I understood what he said, and there area a variety of opinions on this. But for me more pairs= more potential setups= more exposure to PA etc.

Edit: haha need to improve my spelling
  • #93,858
  • Apr 16, 2011 8:57pm Apr 16, 2011 8:57pm
Quoting the_wizard
.....

I will say one more thing about J16 and my learning process in trading. It's the simple stuff that takes the time.

Learning how to draw PPZ's: Took me a few days.

Learning about confluence: Took me a few weeks.

Learning the PA setups and their nuances: Took me a few months.

Learning to apply common sense: Took me seven years.
All great posts about the trading process today - many thanks. It has made for some enjoyable Sunday reading!

I really agree with what the wiz has said above. I'm in my 7th year of full-time trading. It took 4 years of full-time effort to break-even and another near 2 years on top of that to start getting regular profits. What has taken me all the time is _finally_ learning about contexts. If your context is good, nearly any entry approach will work.

I also think that when learning to trade, it is virtually inevitable to have a long learning curve. There is so much to explore about the markets, about trading approaches, and about yourself. It all takes time and experimentation. Most beginning traders are impatient and don't allow that process to complete before a blow out.

Again, great posts. Luv'n 'em.

With kind regards,
MK
  • #93,859
  • Apr 16, 2011 9:12pm Apr 16, 2011 9:12pm
Hi All

It is raining like hell in Hoi An so the second to check the market is here.
I do not care too much..I should not as I am enjoying the (rain) sun.

I do not have a good tool to print screen but looking at the EURUSD it seems to be rape for a retrace. Not clear because there is a serious bull-ear fight going on with the break out guys and profit takers and Johns.

I also noted the many JPY pairs doing their retrace, I hope you will all short the JPY for me

Previously I read about silver hitting 35 and that was a big thing for many guys and they said it must retrace heavily. Instead, I see nothing that could stop this thing until 50. Gold is also going higher for now.

I would like to read your thoughts about trading something like this. The issue is how to get into a raging bull run? I do not want to get in without a noticeable retrace and PA especially as we really getting parabolic in silver.
Also, when these things retrace they can do it quite a lot.
On a side note, my fellow Hungarian, Soros, suggested that gold will likely behave as the next bubble. Prices do not go up this way for ever.
Silver is the more scarring though.


Wish you a good business week, I am off for a mojito.
Kind Regards zol
  • #93,860
  • Apr 16, 2011 10:21pm Apr 16, 2011 10:21pm
Quoting vasmiza
Hey Miko,

This is what Mike says:


You can even wonder outside of FX just to identify more setups.
Thanks Harry

I hope I meant WANDER LOL

But who knows I am a bit out of my mind most times

Thanks bud
Mike
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