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No Brainer Trades

  • #14,221
  • Apr 6, 2011 11:43am Apr 6, 2011 11:43am
Hi guyz, I believe EU is good to entry today or tomorrow once we see a complete correction. Can visit http://forexichimokutrade.blogspot.com/ for more detail technical explanation. I like to combine support & resistance technique with ichimoku trading strategy. Easy for me to make long or short trading.

http://img576.imageshack.us/img576/6...ly20110406.gif

Happy trading to all.
  • #14,222
  • Apr 8, 2011 9:59am Apr 8, 2011 9:59am
EU is moving to partial profit target. For more detail pls visit
http://forexichimokutrade.blogspot.c...011-04-08.html
http://img534.imageshack.us/img534/3...ly20110408.gif
  • #14,223
  • Apr 10, 2011 1:44pm Apr 10, 2011 1:44pm
http://my.jetscreenshot.com/2168/m_2...sbpt-120kb.jpg
  • #14,224
  • Apr 11, 2011 6:58am Apr 11, 2011 6:58am
Hello,

I'd like to practice with this trading system but I'd need some pointers first.

I read James16 thread, EO thread and now this one and I find them so... natural and "obvious" trades.


... until I try myself, I get like 99% of the trades wrong.

There is something grand missing in my knowledge and I don't know where to find it.

In fact I know about trend lines, pivots, horizontal support / resistance, day hi / low, how to use Andrew's pitchfork and so on.

I know how to draw 4h 1h 15m support and resistance (I also took several ideas from this thread, expecially the OP)...

But I am at a complete loss at putting these lines into succesful trades.
I see a 1h support with a little pin bar? Nice, I go long. After 10 seconds it drops down like crazy. I see a 15m graph range? No way price is going to stay within it the very second I enter the trade.
I place my entry ie. at texbook examples of BRV's http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=11820? Not a single time they do what's shown, they just retrace down.

So, since the method is supposed to yeld 90% success rate, what am I missing? How do I know that the obvious support not touched since yesterday is going to melt instead of bounce?

Also, I tried entering i.e. short at upper consolidation like shown in the last page and guess what? Went down 2 pips like it should then exploded to fat big bull candle for 20 pips.

Now, I am using Phil Nel's method (based on PA as well) just fine, how comes that I just can't get a single break out or fade right after I drawn everything?
  • #14,225
  • Apr 11, 2011 7:41am Apr 11, 2011 7:41am
Quoting dfumagalli
Hello,

I'd like to practice with this trading system but I'd need some pointers first.

I read James16 thread, EO thread and now this one and I find them so... natural and "obvious" trades.


... until I try myself, I get like 99% of the trades wrong.

There is something grand missing in my knowledge and I don't know where to find it.

In fact I know about trend lines, pivots, horizontal support / resistance, day hi / low, how to use Andrew's pitchfork and so on.

I know how to draw 4h 1h 15m support and resistance (I also...
are you using trend at all and what pairs?
  • #14,226
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:09am Apr 11, 2011 10:09am
Quoting darrenlittle
are you using trend at all and what pairs?
EUR USD ATM.

I did not read that I needed a trend to make this method work.

Could someone of the kind hearted guys in here draw a "No Brainer Trades" graph of EUR USD and tell why he'd go short here and long there? It seeems to be the easiest to use the 4h graph for that.

I see a possible head and shoulders forming on 4h but if I look at 1 week I see EUR USD came out of a W bottom and seems to try break out upwards.

Edit:

Also, I tried the mini "pin bars" because they are easy to spot. Most of the time price does not invert though and just obliterates them.
  • #14,227
  • Apr 11, 2011 11:43am Apr 11, 2011 11:43am
Quoting dfumagalli
EUR USD ATM.

I did not read that I needed a trend to make this method work.

Could someone of the kind hearted guys in here draw a "No Brainer Trades" graph of EUR USD and tell why he'd go short here and long there? It seeems to be the easiest to use the 4h graph for that.

I see a possible head and shoulders forming on 4h but if I look at 1 week I see EUR USD came out of a W bottom and seems to try break out upwards.

Edit:

Also, I tried the mini "pin bars" because they are easy to spot. Most of the time price does not invert...
heres some trades ive taken today/ this week, its been flat so ive been down on the 15m chart, usually i look on 1hr or above, but some good scalps here...

the pin bars and all that are great, but its the levels that really matter

http://i1222.photobucket.com/albums/...11at173901.png
  • #14,228
  • Apr 11, 2011 1:26pm Apr 11, 2011 1:26pm
Quoting darrenlittle
heres some trades ive taken today/ this week, its been flat so ive been down on the 15m chart, usually i look on 1hr or above, but some good scalps here...

the pin bars and all that are great, but its the levels that really matter
Thank you a lot!
Your example is actually a mine of knowledge and source for some question.
I'd greatly appreciate if you could shed your thoughts about what you did:



- What tells you that you should not have gone short at the high peak between entry 1 and 2? Because it was the first resistance try?

- How did you know not to enter long once price met that middle support after entry 4?

- What about all those high peaks past trade 3? You did not take them because they did not hit a visible resistance line?

- About that low right before trade 4, did you skip it because it did not touch support? I mean, does the trader really wait for support to be touched and not just come "almost" on top of it?

- Finally, what criterium did you pick to setup the take profit for trade 4? Do you trust the fact it'll hit that local high again or do you go with i.e. a fixed pips TP?

Thanks in advance for what you'll reply.
  • #14,229
  • Apr 11, 2011 2:14pm Apr 11, 2011 2:14pm
Alot of it comes through understanding the market and that will come with practice, so i will try and explain as best i can....

1.- What tells you that you should not have gone short at the high peak between entry 1 and 2? Because it was the first resistance try?

it would of been a perfect short, previous level and friday night so profit taking.... i just never took it.... thats all... i will add though eu was trending really strongly and i will usually look for pullbacks to s/r in that instance, like entry 1. When price revisited the high (entry 2) thats a no brainer, previous highs during asia nearly always hold.

Entry 3 and 4 were back to buying resistance becomes support in an established uptrend (these are my favourites)

2.- How did you know not to enter long once price met that middle support after entry 4?

i didnt, i missed that, doing something else, i might of taken it and had a loss on it.... you will have losers, keep them small

3.- What about all those high peaks past trade 3? You did not take them because they did not hit a visible resistance line?

theyre not very clear to me, sure you could of made pips, but theyre risky sorts of levels to trade.... if price had been going back to the high (entry2) then i would of given those a go for sure.

4.- About that low right before trade 4, did you skip it because it did not touch support? I mean, does the trader really wait for support to be touched and not just come "almost" on top of it?

again this is an experience thing, you want to buy at the lowest point possible, you will miss some, but over the course you will be more profitable... buying at the very low means you have a chance to take some profit even if the trade doesnt develop, like trade 3 and 4, i was looking for the top of the range but as i got in low i had chance to grab some profit and cover myself when they turned.

5.- Finally, what criterium did you pick to setup the take profit for trade 4? Do you trust the fact it'll hit that local high again or do you go with i.e. a fixed pips TP?

for me i always take some off at +20 or 30 pips, then i have a next target at the next s/r level, the rest i let go with stops at break even to try and get into a trend/position...
  • #14,230
  • Apr 12, 2011 4:21pm Apr 12, 2011 4:21pm
Thank you Darrenlittle for your most exquisite and patient replies!
  • #14,231
  • Apr 13, 2011 8:12am Apr 13, 2011 8:12am
GU trading - Counter long term trend trading.
Trade Idea :
Short Entry : 1.6270
Target Profit : 1.6173
Stop Loss : 1.6327

http://img856.imageshack.us/img856/6...1h20110413.gif
  • #14,232
  • Apr 15, 2011 11:07am Apr 15, 2011 11:07am
Could some kind soul pretty please tell me what I did wrong here?

I found 3 eligible entries for a long on that descending big red candle:

1) Bounce at confluence of 2 Fibonacci retracements, one from a large swing on 2001-04-14 and one off a smaller one today.

2) Quite long term support in Cyan that had confluence with short term Fibonacci 162 retracement

3) Today's S1 calculated off Pivot points.


I chose 1) and of course I got stopped out because price went down to 2).

What did I do wrong?
How could you have avoided the same misjudgement?

I can easily find multiple confluences so I am quite lost about what's the right one to pick, in absence of reports and similar stimuli.


http://i285.photobucket.com/albums/l...rong_Entry.png
  • #14,233
  • Apr 15, 2011 11:41am Apr 15, 2011 11:41am
Quoting dfumagalli
Could some kind soul pretty please tell me what I did wrong here?

I found 3 eligible entries for a long on that descending big red candle:

1) Bounce at confluence of 2 Fibonacci retracements, one from a large swing on 2001-04-14 and one off a smaller one today.

2) Quite long term support in Cyan that had confluence with short term Fibonacci 162 retracement

3) Today's S1 calculated off Pivot points.


I chose 1) and of course I got stopped out because price went down to 2).

What did I do wrong?
How could you have avoided...
hey fella you were a little unlucky, you're doing everything right... i tried a long around there and got stopped out for 15.... but the mistake we made was that big significant low of the last swing down, that was clearly the level to watch, so i got in on a long there...

have a look on your 1hr tf, see how last time price sliced straight through that previos level you were watching... see how price wanted to find support at those lower levels....

keep at it, soon it will all start to click, you're definately on the right track
  • #14,234
  • Apr 15, 2011 12:16pm Apr 15, 2011 12:16pm
Quoting darrenlittle
hey fella you were a little unlucky, you're doing everything right... i tried a long around there and got stopped out for 15.... but the mistake we made was that big significant low of the last swing down, that was clearly the level to watch, so i got in on a long there...

have a look on your 1hr tf, see how last time price sliced straight through that previos level you were watching... see how price wanted to find support at those lower levels....

keep at it, soon it will all start to click, you're definately on the right track


I am very happy to have found such supportive help, thank you!

I think I have to find out the right priority for confluences, ie find out if a long term support + fibo attracts the price more than 2 fibos and how they win / lose against a daily S1 or S2.

I also noticed, of course 0.00000000000001 milliseconds after entering the sim trade, that I went counter trend in what a 4h chart looks like the descending leg of a head and shoulders.

I am going to sim my butt off this system, I am actually setting up a tick by tick simulator so I can try 16h a day till I learn.

I just hope it won't take more than 3 months, because since I got jobless I really need to make at least €500 a month to survive.
  • #14,235
  • Apr 15, 2011 12:26pm Apr 15, 2011 12:26pm
[quote=dfumagalli;4548633]Could some kind soul pretty please tell me what I did wrong here?


What did I do wrong?
How could you have avoided the same misjudgement?




Hi Dfumagalli, just a personal view, i would only enter long when price reach the demand ( as marked in blue). Further, possibly short at 61.8 RET and target 161.8 with tight stop, though i never use SL.
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  • #14,236
  • Apr 15, 2011 12:30pm Apr 15, 2011 12:30pm
Quoting dfumagalli
Could some kind soul pretty please tell me what I did wrong here?

I found 3 eligible entries for a long on that descending big red candle:

1) Bounce at confluence of 2 Fibonacci retracements, one from a large swing on 2001-04-14 and one off a smaller one today.

2) Quite long term support in Cyan that had confluence with short term Fibonacci 162 retracement

3) Today's S1 calculated off Pivot points.


I chose 1) and of course I got stopped out because price went down to 2).

What did I do wrong?
How could you have avoided...

dfumagalli,

Your chart indicates you have missed the context of this particular market: range. A ranging market is the dread of even the most experienced traders if it is not recognized soon enough.

Always have a context for your market and never try to trade the middle of a range, only the extremes.

fwiw,

xt
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  • #14,237
  • Apr 15, 2011 12:41pm Apr 15, 2011 12:41pm
nice chart bam bam!
  • #14,238
  • Apr 15, 2011 12:55pm Apr 15, 2011 12:55pm
[quote=BamBam;4548795]
Quoting dfumagalli
Could some kind soul pretty please tell me what I did wrong here?


What did I do wrong?
How could you have avoided the same misjudgement?




Hi Dfumagalli, just a personal view, i would only enter long when price reach the demand ( as marked in blue). Further, possibly short at 61.8 RET and target 161.8 with tight stop, though i never use SL.
Yeah you are totally right.

On an unrelated matter, despite I checked about 20 websites found on Google I have a very stupid question I can't seem to find an answer to:

I noticed Fibo retracements can be drawn from 0 to 100 and vice versa and they'll appear with numbers turned upside down.

What's the proper way to draw them? IE upswing has to have 0 at the base and downswing at the top? Or both have 0 at the lowest price?
  • #14,239
  • Apr 15, 2011 1:00pm Apr 15, 2011 1:00pm
Quoting xtsunami
dfumagalli,

Your chart indicates you have missed the context of this particular market: range. A ranging market is the dread of even the most experienced traders if it is not recognized soon enough.

Always have a context for your market and never try to trade the middle of a range, only the extremes.

fwiw,

xt
I will tell you two of my current difficulties:

BRV says he makes 4-5+ trades a day, how's it possible if I can only trade twice a week per pair if I wait for those major ranges to come into fruition?

Also, this is UTTER confusing, how do I know I have to care for the range I see on timeframe X and ignore the head and shoulders I see on timeframe X + 1 or ignore the nice trend I see on timeframe X - 1? IE if I want to usually trade 15m - 1h charts, what timeframe should give me an hint about what's going to happen next?

Thanks in advance.
  • #14,240
  • Apr 15, 2011 1:15pm Apr 15, 2011 1:15pm
Quoting dfumagalli
Could some kind soul pretty please tell me what I did wrong here?

I found 3 eligible entries for a long on that descending big red candle:

1) Bounce at confluence of 2 Fibonacci retracements, one from a large swing on 2001-04-14 and one off a smaller one today.

2) Quite long term support in Cyan that had confluence with short term Fibonacci 162 retracement

3) Today's S1 calculated off Pivot points.


I chose 1) and of course I got stopped out because price went down to 2).

What did I do wrong?
How could you have avoided...
Guys, you have really drifted far away from what BRV has put forth. His methods work when in the hands of a experienced trader. Its not a system. You must line up your entries properly with what the markets are doing as of today. Get all that useless shit off your charts as BRV suggests. He was only concerned with confluence. A fib line means nothing unless its confluence and even then its not that important. Todays three sessions were very easy to trade. If you performed poorly on a day like this you need to go back to demo.
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