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AUD/USD

  • #29,401
  • Apr 15, 2011 10:15am Apr 15, 2011 10:15am
Sell Limit @ 1.0565. Missed by 1 pip. Will it come back?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd_uptrend_channel.png Size: 39 KB
  • #29,402
  • Apr 15, 2011 10:23am Apr 15, 2011 10:23am
Quoting suirad
Sell Limit @ 1.0565. Missed by 1 pip. Will it come back?

Attachment
I don't know but I personally don't prefer that setups. Better R/R but much less chance.. It can break up.
  • #29,403
  • Apr 15, 2011 10:27am Apr 15, 2011 10:27am
Quoting w1nner
I don't know but I personally don't prefer that setups. Better R/R but much less chance.. It can break up.
Mhm, it would better to notice it earlier - a long entry at lower trend line.
  • #29,404
  • Apr 15, 2011 10:43am Apr 15, 2011 10:43am
Quoting suirad
Mhm, it would better to notice it earlier - a long entry at lower trend line.
Trading the box range (rising edge range) is not wrong either way I think. I meant so I like to see confirmation. Now there is some confirmation on M5. But it is still an uptrend.

Edit: I see the support is still there despite of reversal patterns. However very good R/R. But don't listen to me don't listen to anyone.
  • #29,405
  • Apr 15, 2011 11:01am Apr 15, 2011 11:01am
Quoting w1nner
A hanging man is forming on the weekly chart. And it is getting tired looking the moves of the Dollar it doesn't react that way as before. I know it is just guessing but I think it can drop back to the 1.0200-1.0280 area.
Interesting

The scenario: I believe it may be determined by the last few hours of trading this week. If this present short time frame move is able to crack last weeks high and close up there then this will become a strong bullish signal.

UNLIKELY why? I believe it is unlikely cause it has not shown any real volatility all week, it needs to break a trendline that it has been respecting for the last 4 days and weekly highs in themselves normally become resistance.

But possible because? This trendline is old, but it has had a few significant false breaks (26 pip and 42 pip push throughs)with pull backs to keep it in check. Also the high volume american banks might do some stop hunting, by pushing through last weeks highs (fridays are known for it) and placing their own sell limts to give themselves greater liquidity or to bank some profits for a mind at ease week end.

If weekly highs are not broken retracement to 1.025 next week is real possibility, especially if it closes below 1.05525 this week.

we'll find out soon enough.
  • #29,406
  • Edited 11:23am Apr 15, 2011 11:13am | Edited 11:23am
Interesting point of view. You know I was following it and NZDUSD last year. I was pretty sure both of them will reverse. And if you look back the chart 31/12/2010. The last 4 hours were very intensive upmoves like a buying climax on both AUDUSD and NZDUSD. I did not trade these moves so I kicked my own ass..

Now it is trying to break up the rising edge. Now it is only 10.5 pips down than the high of the previous upswing. If it closes around here this is a perfect long legged doji on the weekly - not weakly. (Edit) It only means that it may turn or the trend can resume..
  • #29,407
  • Apr 15, 2011 11:37am Apr 15, 2011 11:37am
dont you Guys think retrace due atleast 535!
I m short aud.
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Click to Enlarge Name: aud.JPG Size: 57 KB
Trade what you see, Not what you think.
  • #29,408
  • Apr 15, 2011 11:41am Apr 15, 2011 11:41am
The trendline is still in place and it is going up. In 20 minutes there is the H4 close on my chart.

What does FXF mean on your chart?
  • #29,409
  • Apr 15, 2011 11:50am Apr 15, 2011 11:50am
h1 10minuts left not h4

Quoting w1nner
The trendline is still in place and it is going up. In 20 minutes there is the H4 close on my chart.

What does FXF mean on your chart?
Trade what you see, Not what you think.
  • #29,410
  • Edited 12:13pm Apr 15, 2011 11:55am | Edited 12:13pm
H1 & H4 on my chart. From M1 to H1 is the same everywhere but different brokers can differ on close H4, D1.

It is a rising triangle finishing now.

Edit: trend line seems to be broken on M5. If it is not a fake breakout. Good luck.
  • #29,411
  • Edited 12:57pm Apr 15, 2011 12:27pm | Edited 12:57pm
It seems it will work for you. I was not sure so I missed it.

Edit: Testing the resistance again.. It seems Friday close is different. I don't want to stick in a trade for the weekend.
  • #29,412
  • Apr 15, 2011 12:58pm Apr 15, 2011 12:58pm
i am short also... i believe think it is ready for a 200-300 pip drop soon... however, the buying is crazy... if it goes up another 30-50 pips i am going to short it at the high and hold over the weekend.

Quoting khizer
dont you Guys think retrace due atleast 535!
I m short aud.
  • #29,413
  • Apr 15, 2011 1:08pm Apr 15, 2011 1:08pm
Because it did not reached the bottom of my channel which I drew and it was neutral for hours I did not buy. I expected another movement. Now the current candle is over 2.6 pips the previous hanging man's high. Good luck.
  • #29,414
  • Apr 15, 2011 1:16pm Apr 15, 2011 1:16pm
Massive option expiry on April 20th at 1.0335.
  • #29,415
  • Apr 15, 2011 1:18pm Apr 15, 2011 1:18pm
looking at the state of the US$ I wonder if this is a leading diagonal if so short doesn't look the best option as it's quite an explosive formation. I'm sure some ewavers can confirm which:

"However, the ending diagonal triangle has a 3-3-3-3-3 subwave structure, but the leading diagonal triangle shows a 5-3-5-3-5 pattern."
  • #29,416
  • Apr 15, 2011 1:22pm Apr 15, 2011 1:22pm
Quoting ts63
Massive option expiry on April 20th at 1.0335.
What is that?


The only thing keeps me away from short is the Sochastic oscillator pointing up on the daily. RSI(14) is 66.87. Moving averages are still very steep (following the price).
  • #29,417
  • Apr 15, 2011 1:27pm Apr 15, 2011 1:27pm
it justs keep going up! however, i think it is overbought:
1) its friday
2) its 5% of the weekly high
3) its 3% of the monthly high
4) its at a record high
5) there no "new news" that should be pushing it up

the only thing that is causing (that i can think of) is everyone want to buy. i dont see it breaking 1.06.

i have my stops at 1.0615
going to put a sell limit at 1.06 just in case it pops a little more and hold over the weekend.

i wish now i wait till now, i would have had a better entry
i sold at 1.0552 and 1.0565

where do you see this going next week? i am thinking 1.02

Quoting w1nner
Because it did not reached the bottom of my channel which I drew and it was neutral for hours I did not buy. I expected another movement. Now the current candle is over 2.6 pips the previous hanging man's high. Good luck.
  • #29,418
  • Apr 15, 2011 1:40pm Apr 15, 2011 1:40pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
it justs keep going up!...
We are going up, and as such, we should continue buying until it is no longer the case.

You can't fight carry/position traders. They are loving the interest rate.
  • #29,419
  • Apr 15, 2011 1:49pm Apr 15, 2011 1:49pm
this is overbought on fundamentals but that doesn't mean it won't go higher we've got a weak US$ we've got the Fed that cannot or will not do anything about reversing that trend. There isn't a reason to buy the US$ they'd rather buy anything but US$ even the Kiwi is performing well and their economy is grinding to a halt. We've got half of the EUR that are broke and it's currency is heading towards the 1.50 region.
  • #29,420
  • Apr 15, 2011 1:56pm Apr 15, 2011 1:56pm
only entry I can see for short is a pending order on the break low of this daily bar.
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