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AUD/USD

  • #29,381
  • Apr 13, 2011 7:19pm Apr 13, 2011 7:19pm
Thank you!

Although, any idea about this drop?
  • #29,382
  • Apr 13, 2011 7:24pm Apr 13, 2011 7:24pm
Quoting MapleLeaf
any remote idea of what is going on right now with AUDUSD? going down like crazy.


I would love to know, cant any news, until 1hour and 1 hour 30 minutes...
are you long? i am long at around 1.05 and waiting. it's probably being manipulated. it seems to be set up to hit new highs till the end of the week, but there are some strange movements meanwhile. this pair has attracted too much attention lately... even more than EURUSD at times...
  • #29,383
  • Apr 13, 2011 7:24pm Apr 13, 2011 7:24pm
Quoting stock
Thank you!

Although, any idea about this drop?
shoudl break 1.04 when they raise rates this time
  • #29,384
  • Apr 13, 2011 7:38pm Apr 13, 2011 7:38pm
stops at 1.0420
  • #29,385
  • Apr 13, 2011 7:40pm Apr 13, 2011 7:40pm
Quoting papaki
are you long? i am long at around 1.05 and waiting. it's probably being manipulated. it seems to be set up to hit new highs till the end of the week, but there are some strange movements meanwhile. this pair has attracted too much attention lately... even more than EURUSD at times...

yes im long.. I was surprised to see that down movement, when there was no news and gold was going up at the same time... It also did not hit any take profits or short orders, so yes, it is a very strange movement.

And I also think tomorrow and friday are usually days where aud can go up.

well, now in 20 minuites we have one news and in 50 minutes another, lets see what happens.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #29,386
  • Apr 13, 2011 7:46pm Apr 13, 2011 7:46pm
Copper price is dropping
  • #29,387
  • Apr 13, 2011 11:07pm Apr 13, 2011 11:07pm
I know it is offtopic but how would I interpret this? Do they want the EUR to be stronger?

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=289799
  • #29,388
  • Apr 14, 2011 6:22pm Apr 14, 2011 6:22pm
It all looks normal to me.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd0416.png Size: 67 KB
  • #29,389
  • Apr 15, 2011 1:20am Apr 15, 2011 1:20am
Quoting Jhig
It all looks normal to me.
How do you mean?
  • #29,390
  • Apr 15, 2011 2:08am Apr 15, 2011 2:08am
http://i52.tinypic.com/1euaa0.png
  • #29,391
  • Apr 15, 2011 2:39am Apr 15, 2011 2:39am
If you connect the tops with a rising trendline instead, then it is a rising wedge.
  • #29,392
  • Apr 15, 2011 3:23am Apr 15, 2011 3:23am
Quoting w1nner
If you connect the tops with a rising trendline instead, then it is a rising wedge.
from Bulkowski's Encyclopedia:

"Rising wedges, especially for downward breakouts, are some of the worst performing chart patterns. Downward breakouts have unacceptably high failure rates and small post breakout declines. Also, pullbacks occur almost two-thirds of the time and throwbacks happen almost three-quarters of the time"
  • #29,393
  • Apr 15, 2011 3:39am Apr 15, 2011 3:39am
I did not say I trade it that way.
  • #29,394
  • Apr 15, 2011 3:45am Apr 15, 2011 3:45am
Quoting w1nner
I did not say I trade it that way.
I usually do. Trading patterns. That's for my remark...
  • #29,395
  • Apr 15, 2011 3:53am Apr 15, 2011 3:53am
Quoting JanPoko
I usually do. Trading patterns. That's for my remark...
Yes, I would trade it another way. My feeling is that around here will be a significant drop on the daily soon, next Monday or some days later. But Stochastic points up. What a mess.

It is also moving with a good corelation to kiwi dollar. That is near to a critical resistance point. But I think that will make a record however I don't see the charts back enough to see it was ever higher than 0.7975.
  • #29,396
  • Apr 15, 2011 5:13am Apr 15, 2011 5:13am
Someone say Aussie rally is odd !

Not really ,right !

As a Australia Fiat currency ,Whatever happened to Australia reality and Australia Real Economy don't weigh to Aussie !

As a Commodity currency ,whatever happened to Commodity doesn't weigh to Aussie !

As Australia 's 2 biggest trade partner China and Japan which helped Australia survived 2008-9 financial crisis,
Whatever happened to China and Japan don't weigh to Aussie !!!

Not too odd ,right !!!

This is Forex ,really unregulated market place !
Anyone even the CB authority does xxxx !

So What's really weigh to Aussie?????

Let's check out the Aussie insane rally excuse book, not order book :

1: M&A !
2: Billions flood insurance.
3: Carry Trade .
4: Net strong Aussie boost Export .
4: Central bank reserve ..

Let's see what's next ........!!!!

This is forex, Really unregulated place !
Even the CB authority does XXXX !
  • #29,397
  • Apr 15, 2011 8:22am Apr 15, 2011 8:22am
Quoting APupil
Australia Real Economy
The economy is poor, however, eur GBP and USD are heck of a lot worse.

So the AUD is good in comparison....

Quoting APupil
As a Commodity currency
Commodities are the only thing that the world desires when coming out of economic recession. So if commodities go down in value it just means that other nations can purchase more for their WANTS. When commodities go up it does not stop the purchasing of NEEDS within commodities.

So in a rising demand for commodities slight falls does not necessarily correspond to a fall in the currency, however, it normally would.


Quoting APupil
As Australia 's 2 biggest trade partner China and Japan which helped Australia survived 2008-9 financial crisis,
Whatever happened to China and Japan don't weigh to Aussie!!!
China's economy is slowing down, but it is still very good in comparison to every other major economy. So although not as good as it once was, it is still a plus to have China as a major trading partner, as they are probably the best economy out their at the moment.


Quoting APupil
This is Forex ,really unregulated market place
Yes but like the neighbouring commodity currency NZD, the government reserves the right to intervene like JPY at the tsunami / nuclear crisis if the value of the currency is out of whack with its true or needed value.


Quoting APupil
Aussie insane rally excuse book:
Carry Trade
This is probably genuine in helping drive the value of the currency upwards. In the real fx markets the carry trade on AUDJPY is earning about $16 per 100K (1 lot) traded per day.
  • #29,398
  • Apr 15, 2011 8:42am Apr 15, 2011 8:42am
My expectation on last week end, was a pull back or sideways market from the high of 1.05818 for the AUDUSD, before another trending market and takes the currency eventually through to 1.085. There are likely to be more pullbacks in between, but thats my long term expectation.

This long term expectation remains that way unless the AUD breaks 1.025 at the moment. If it pulls back that far my bullish expectation remains above 1.075
  • #29,399
  • Apr 15, 2011 9:39am Apr 15, 2011 9:39am
A hanging man is forming on the weekly chart. And it is getting tired looking the moves of the Dollar it doesn't react that way as before. I know it is just guessing but I think it can drop back to the 1.0200-1.0280 area.
  • #29,400
  • Apr 15, 2011 9:52am Apr 15, 2011 9:52am
What about NZDJPY? Doesn't look a good shortshell? Weekly chart is the same (hanging man or long legged doji is forming).
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