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  • #41
  • Apr 15, 2011 2:20am Apr 15, 2011 2:20am
Quoting AFX-UK
OK so looking at things this morning from a technical perspective I am finding it hard to find real direction.... the markets have been so up and down over the past week.

I guess it is going to be a day of trading momentum again. I quite like the idea of shorting the EUR/JPY, so I'll wait to see the price action when happens.

What about the rest of you guys?
Agree with you....EURUSD seems to have lid on, Cable shows Triangle on H4 again, Aussie has rising wedge and USDCHF was again rejected by 0.8900.

There is some movement now with London open, but think I will stand on sideline today.

Don't watch EURJPY....don't know why though.
  • #42
  • Apr 15, 2011 2:43am Apr 15, 2011 2:43am
Maybe I should have sat on the sidelines as well

-6.3 pips on the EURJPY
  • #43
  • Apr 15, 2011 2:56am Apr 15, 2011 2:56am
Good morning. I agree with your assement of the market. I have not seen any setups that get me interested. I will probably wait, but I am watching the EUR/USD closely since it again is at the high where it has been before. I had a buy order for the GBP/USD which was triggered. The price moved up to +8 PIPs, but I was taken out with +1.6 PIPs.
  • #44
  • Apr 15, 2011 2:57am Apr 15, 2011 2:57am
Quoting AFX-UK
Maybe I should have sat on the sidelines as well

-6.3 pips on the EURJPY

Keeps us on our toes and humble....

Swissy is being bought vs USD, EUR and GBP....which is weird and caught me off guard.
  • #45
  • Apr 15, 2011 3:05am Apr 15, 2011 3:05am
OK the markets are really just playing with my emotions now... I am going to hold fire now until the Euro news out in an hour...

+1.1 EURJPY
  • #46
  • Apr 15, 2011 3:09am Apr 15, 2011 3:09am
Darendse, I am looking at the H4 bars of USD/CHF and the EUR/USD. What I see is the current bar of each pair have already have formed outside bars of the prior bar. The USD/CHF may probably reverse the small up for the preceding 3 bars and may go back to 0.8900 to test that price.

The EUR/USD has also formed an outside bar of the prior bar. It is still undecided.
  • #47
  • Apr 15, 2011 3:12am Apr 15, 2011 3:12am
Some light hearted fun... goto 7 mins in... this cracks me up

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Glag0EJbNo&NR=1

You guys should actually probably also watch parts 1,2 and 3 as they are really interesting from a trading perspective.
  • #48
  • Apr 15, 2011 3:17am Apr 15, 2011 3:17am
I have just had an order filled to go long the NZDUSD on a break of the highs.

I also have pending long EURUSD if the Euro has legs and Short EURNZD if it turns out that it doesn't
  • #49
  • Apr 15, 2011 3:17am Apr 15, 2011 3:17am
AFX, Looking at the EUR/USD H1 bars it looks like it is developing support at the 1.44640 area. I did not think the EUR news at 0800 GMT and 0900 GMT would really move it, but it looks like the market is hanging back and waiting. This is where our discipline is tested.
  • #50
  • Apr 15, 2011 3:24am Apr 15, 2011 3:24am
Indeed.

The thing with any economic release is to work out what is important to the market right now. With todays release it we be a little more important as it is inflation data which will help the markets decide one whether they believe the ECB will raise rates anytime soon.

So even though it is not tier one so to speak, at the moment the markets are fixated on this kind of data.

The ECB's mandate is price stability, hence high inflation = higher interest rates
  • #51
  • Apr 15, 2011 3:30am Apr 15, 2011 3:30am
Quoting Dcb
Darendse, I am looking at the H4 bars of USD/CHF and the EUR/USD. What I see is the current bar of each pair have already have formed outside bars of the prior bar. The USD/CHF may probably reverse the small up for the preceding 3 bars and may go back to 0.8900 to test that price.

The EUR/USD has also formed an outside bar of the prior bar. It is still undecided.
Agree......and on the Euro it was followed by Doji leading into London open, which for me is uncertainty.

The USDCHF is not making new lows though...slowly moving away from 0.8900.

This all looks like indecision.
  • #52
  • Apr 15, 2011 3:40am Apr 15, 2011 3:40am
Yes. It is hard for me to sit back. My attention is on the EUR/USD. The fact that it has once again rejected the high and could not get beyond it makes me think it is going to come crashing down. I have not placed any orders yet, but waiting to get more H1 bars to give me a clue if I am right or not.
  • #53
  • Apr 15, 2011 3:53am Apr 15, 2011 3:53am
Quoting Dcb
Yes. It is hard for me to sit back. My attention is on the EUR/USD. The fact that it has once again rejected the high and could not get beyond it makes me think it is going to come crashing down. I have not placed any orders yet, but waiting to get more H1 bars to give me a clue if I am right or not.
I also think it has a short term downside bias, but as you said when?...also watching it for signs.

The major trend is still up though.
  • #54
  • Apr 15, 2011 3:57am Apr 15, 2011 3:57am
I agree with you about the major direction, but it may be next week before it moves past the high. Right now the market is undecided.
  • #55
  • Apr 15, 2011 3:57am Apr 15, 2011 3:57am
Quoting AFX-UK
Some light hearted fun... goto 7 mins in... this cracks me up

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Glag0EJbNo&NR=1

You guys should actually probably also watch parts 1,2 and 3 as they are really interesting from a trading perspective.
Thx AFX....great video .
  • #56
  • Apr 15, 2011 4:14am Apr 15, 2011 4:14am
AFX-UK,

Will read with interest. You mention for your short term trading you follow momentum, is there a specific way you interpret momentum that puts the probabilities in your favour to enter the trade?

I'm a short term breakout trader and would look into momentum to validate the trade.

Cheers for your time.
  • #57
  • Apr 15, 2011 4:19am Apr 15, 2011 4:19am
I just watched the video. I enjoyed it. Thanks. I have read the Market Wizard books and enjoyed them.
  • #58
  • Apr 15, 2011 4:33am Apr 15, 2011 4:33am
@AFX-UK,

you mentioned that you are both a fundamental and technical trader.
I like this approach although trading fundamentals appears rather difficult to me.
It's not because that fundamentals are hard to grasp but rather hard to interpret in such a way, that your interpretation matches the crowds interpretation.
This can sometimes be an impossible task, since one can not know if a certain news is already priced in or not.
My question is: do you also have a look at the USDX index?
Is this basket index of importance?

Thanks for your insights
  • #59
  • Apr 15, 2011 6:48am Apr 15, 2011 6:48am
Not that my 2 cents matters or means anything, i am new to this board and cannot make a post yet but thank you for creating this thread.

A little on my background, i am currently in my last year at uni studying commerce and majoring in finance (funny thing is we learn the basics of s&r, trendlines, MA, etc), I used to trade s&p 500 along side with my dad awhile back. in my opinion the movement is sorta similar except the S&P500 moves way too quickly.

i have not traded live (in the foreign Exchange) yet, but i am planning to open a live account next week after i finish slaving my ass off to build myself some capital... and maybe il let some people on this board know (if i can create threads)

so if anyone is wondering.. can anyone actually make money from the forex?? yes they can, i personally know people (family friends and friends parents) that are well off purely from trading the foreign exchange. i hope this will give people doubting it some hope.

so how i trade, i wont give it away completely but just a little bit of guidance, i NEVER enter if there is no support or resistance, to me that is suicide, i don't use alot of indicators, just EMA 20 & 40, but mainly i focus more on the patterns, my chance of winning is about 68-75% chance depending on the pair, i determine my winning chance based on the pair, AUD/USD being the worst for me. I trade both fundamental and technical, e.g. continuation (news driven up for a currency) i would not enter trades opposing that.

i use 3 monitors?? if that matters to anyone. but until i can win live, it doesn't really matter what i say haha. If you can share with me your experiences with trading for a living id really like to hear.

thanks, Ish
  • #60
  • Apr 16, 2011 5:15pm Apr 16, 2011 5:15pm
Quoting beyon
@AFX-UK,

you mentioned that you are both a fundamental and technical trader.
I like this approach although trading fundamentals appears rather difficult to me.
It's not because that fundamentals are hard to grasp but rather hard to interpret in such a way, that your interpretation matches the crowds interpretation.
This can sometimes be an impossible task, since one can not know if a certain news is already priced in or not.
My question is: do you also have a look at the USDX index?
Is this basket index of importance?

Thanks for your insights...
Hi Beyon,

First of all my first bit of advice with regards to fundamentals is to use them to give you a picture only. Then trade from the technicals. Remember we are still traders at heart and not economists. So we need to trade trader economics and not economist economics. That essentiall means we trade the sentiment.

Now to the USDX, yes I do to a point but again only to build a picture and derive a bias. I then trade the technicals.

Does that make sense or would you like me to clarify further.

Best

AFX
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