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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #1,861
  • Apr 14, 2011 8:26am Apr 14, 2011 8:26am
Man all kinds of inflation data coming out at the end of this week from China, Europe, and the US. Also China's GDP tonight, and Europe's trade balance (yellow status of FF calendar lol) tomorrow. Don't forget about g20 tomorrow as well.

Not that I trade news, but these factors at the end of the week may have been reinforcing our weekly initial balance.
  • #1,862
  • Apr 14, 2011 8:29am Apr 14, 2011 8:29am
Im currently short at ny seesion IB high @1.4431. I feel if it is open test drive prices(weekly), should drive lower. As per basic mp set ups, looking to buy mn vah & poc which is still further @1.4307 closer to wvpoc 1.4294. The daily dir. conviction is to sell yest val, poc, or the day before yest. val & poc. So my bias is still short . Ill se how this goes for now.
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,863
  • Apr 14, 2011 8:49am Apr 14, 2011 8:49am
Quoting mzvega
I wanted to post a trade I took last night. I took 2 Shorts @ 1.4999. I had an idea about weekly IB looking like open-test-drive. I closed both alittle below WIBL.
Claudia, u entry is perfect to me, my entry is d London open range extention, bank 80 pips now I buy from 20 pips from weekly ibl, let's see how us session perform. What a week of open test drive.
  • #1,864
  • Apr 14, 2011 8:54am Apr 14, 2011 8:54am
Quoting frankkn
Do you trade from that chart? What signals entry for you?

I've seen your charts and enjoy your use of profiles, but am confused on your entry decisions. Do you watch other charts? Or just price to break and retest a level or something along those lines?
Yes I do look at those charts, when I am close to one of my reference points (IB's, va's, poc's, etc.) then I will look at the 5m, looking fine tune my entry. But When I am in a trade I look at the profile beacuse the PA will psyche you out. If im short and just and just entering at the vah you should travel to the other side of value. But the candle chart will give you all kinds of reasons to doubt yourself. But if you know profile ,as long as you are inside value while the market is moving, Profile moves with you its dynamic. your not wrong or close profit until you are out side of value. Im not sure if I explained that right.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,865
  • Apr 14, 2011 9:07am Apr 14, 2011 9:07am
Quoting alexm
Claudia, u entry is perfect to me, my entry is d London open range extention, bank 80 pips now I buy from 20 pips from weekly ibl, let's see how us session perform. What a week of open test drive.
Great trades! I probably would have went long on the reverse too, I still have a bearish bias. If nothing else "balanced atm"
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,866
  • Apr 14, 2011 9:18am Apr 14, 2011 9:18am
Quoting mzvega
Yes I do look at those charts, when I am close to one of my reference points (IB's, va's, poc's, etc.) then I will look at the 5m, looking fine tune my entry. But When I am in a trade I look at the profile beacuse the PA will psyche you out. If im short and just and just entering at the vah you should travel to the other side of value. But the candle chart will give you all kinds of reasons to doubt yourself. But if you know profile ,as long as you are inside value while the market is moving, Profile moves with you its dynamic. your not wrong...
I would say your explaination was fine - and IF I'd been watching these charts with this in mind, I'd have plundered a few more pips......and picked up the € buy off the monthly pivot!

PS Entries posted in ~real time elsewhere....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,867
  • Apr 14, 2011 9:33am Apr 14, 2011 9:33am
Quoting mzvega
Great trades! I probably would have went long on the reverse too, I still have a bearish bias. If nothing else "balanced atm"
My view is to break d weekly ibl it cost money, "those guy" will use d least reaistant way to make money so my logic is still long from weekly ibl. I might be wrong n let see how it perform.
  • #1,868
  • Apr 14, 2011 9:38am Apr 14, 2011 9:38am
Crazy day today. This move looked like it was being sold but with no follow through yet. I've been flat today as I haven't seen anything that fits my criteria. Still some time left however
  • #1,869
  • Edited 10:13am Apr 14, 2011 10:05am | Edited 10:13am
Quoting Islander
I would say your explaination was fine - and IF I'd been watching these charts with this in mind, I'd have plundered a few more pips......and picked up the € buy off the monthly pivot!

PS Entries posted in ~real time elsewhere....
This trade I am in is a good example. I am in the hole atm but technically I am not wrong until we are above VAH, and even then chances of sellers coming in are great because prices are "overvalued", so I would hold that short unless I see strenghth come in at those levels. Comercials only drive outside of IB range. And if it does and cant exceed 1.5 ex, it usually a squeeze or fake out and price goes the other way. Im not wrong IMO until I get a close above @1.4483 which is also the dvah. I also dont trade large size. I depend on consistency over time as an edge. But I also always ask my self "where am I in realtion to value. Ive added chart of the daily, week, mn profiles overlayed. I feel safe so far as where I am at in relation to all those areas. Now if I was looking at a bar chart, I would have jumped in, out, in, out again. And again, I could be wrong too
the monthly profile is looking very "top heavy". Not sure what to make of it. I want to say looks like short covering?
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,870
  • Apr 14, 2011 10:22am Apr 14, 2011 10:22am
Quoting frankkn
Crazy day today. This move looked like it was being sold but with no follow through yet. I've been flat today as I haven't seen anything that fits my criteria. Still some time left however
the daily opens for the last 3 days are all about in the same area. I think that "line in sand" is an important one. Bullish above bearish below, looking pretty balanced. Just from my quartely charts I have that bearish bias. Im looking for any range ex. to the downside off the wval. I think we need to test previous months vah before an attempt to move to the upside, if its going up. but I am often wrong.
ATM were testing mpoc 1.4459.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,871
  • Apr 14, 2011 10:27am Apr 14, 2011 10:27am
today it is crazy for me to trade both way from sell at london n buy at NY.

Well I'm done with +120 pips in total.

But I won't do this kind of crazy stuff often, I think I'm just being lucky today.
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  • #1,872
  • Apr 14, 2011 10:57am Apr 14, 2011 10:57am
I just wanted to share a couple of cheat sheets I use (I keep a MP Note book of all "if this" , "then this" senarios)

Now, I personally trade each session according to its IB. Then when the next session arrives, I trade that sessions IB inrelation to the previous sessions IB. Like it was a value area. I treat the IB as the value area and use the same rules of overvalued, undervalue. each session trades in reponse to the previous. So really I visualize 3 separate profiles within the dominant 24h profile. Thats my preference. There are many ways MP has evolved, you need to adapted the rules to the market your trading. Now if I traded stocks or a different instument, Id use a slightly different approach.
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,873
  • Apr 14, 2011 11:12am Apr 14, 2011 11:12am
been following this thread for some time, just wanted to say thanks for all the posts and resources!

mzvega that's a great 'cheat sheet', always nice to have quick easy to read references at the handy
  • #1,874
  • Edited 11:40am Apr 14, 2011 11:21am | Edited 11:40am
hi! haven't placed one trade this week as have had absolutely no time to follow them so best to stay out...

As mzvega has indicated, EU is balancing this week, and it is doing so above the previous balance area. So the breakout therefore is real and not a fake move up. This does not preclude a possible move down, but the longer term up trend is still in tact IMO.

More tactically, there is no evidence of a selling tail at the top, so the market is rotating and has not yet completed this rotation. due to that my bias is still up longer term and my first target is 1.47. I likely will not trade tomorrow either, and I leave on vacation on Sunday so next week is out completely...time to recharge
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Change is the only constant
  • #1,875
  • Apr 14, 2011 11:26am Apr 14, 2011 11:26am
Quoting smittens4212
been following this thread for some time, just wanted to say thanks for all the posts and resources!

mzvega that's a great 'cheat sheet', always nice to have quick easy to read references at the handy
Its my pleasure! I live on the west coast USA. London open is @ 1am, the US open @ 4am my time. By the time I do get up to trade I need to be "sharp" quickly (before the coffee kicks in). Thats why I trade each seesion individualy. So no matter what session I trade I have a quick set of guidelines in relation to the previous seesions reference areas.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,876
  • Apr 14, 2011 11:39am Apr 14, 2011 11:39am
Quoting mzvega
This trade I am in is a good example. I am in the hole atm but technically I am not wrong until we are above VAH, and even then chances of sellers coming in are great because prices are "overvalued", so I would hold that short unless I see strenghth come in at those levels. Comercials only drive outside of IB range. And if it does and cant exceed 1.5 ex, it usually a squeeze or fake out and price goes the other way. Im not wrong IMO until I get a close above @1.4483 which is also the dvah. I also dont trade large size. I depend on consistency...
Thanks - and I agree that €s looking toppy....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

As I've said earlier in this tread, I'm looking to add my take on AMT to my existing system for trading the European Session and since Medici and I decided not to continue with our own thread, I post regularly in Acumens old thread as entries around "levels" are what I like.

This is an explanation of my view of todays session just posted there and comments are welcome.......

OK - this will tale a little time as it involves VSA and AMT and how I interpret them......and this is still "work in progress" !!

Firstly, one principle of AMT is that the big players move price short term to give them the best entry and exit prices and that the commercials are mainly active at the extremes of the days action or profile.

Thus from mid FH onwards ~the 4500 level they were exiting any longs from the low volume Asian session and initiating fresh shorts.

The LH ~10am on my charts showed that there were no more buyers for them to sell to, so the fall started.

The 11:55 and 12:00 candles were narrower ranged, but with the highest volume of the session, so this could not have been fresh new selling, but existing shorts closing out to late less experienced traders who thought the down move would continue.

This exchange continued for an hour with the pros / clever traders closing out shorts and initiating fresh long trades thus absorbing all of the sell orerds around the 4400 level. When this had finished price had to drop to find / clear out any currently remaining short orders. This resulted in the high volume, wide ranged candle at 13:00 - which didnt follow thru, and the fall terminated in the 2 small red candles at the MP level of 4364 as the buyers took control and price began its move back upwrds to the top side of todays profile - actually halting - for now - at Tuesdays vol POC level of 4490....

Now I need a San Miguel!

NB I have 15m and 30m charts with and without AMP open on other monitors, but this is my normal trading chart....

NNB The grey arrows are a wide range candle alert
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,877
  • Apr 14, 2011 11:47am Apr 14, 2011 11:47am
Quoting mzvega
I just wanted to share a couple of cheat sheets I use (I keep a MP Note book of all "if this" , "then this" senarios)

Now, I personally trade each session according to its IB. Then when the next session arrives, I trade that sessions IB inrelation to the previous sessions IB. Like it was a value area. I treat the IB as the value area and use the same rules of overvalued, undervalue. each session trades in reponse to the previous. So really I visualize 3 separate profiles within the dominant 24h profile. Thats my preference. There are...
Simply awesome. Thank you for sharing. You are an incredible resource of knowledge and enthusiasm. Glad to have you aboard.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #1,878
  • Apr 14, 2011 11:53am Apr 14, 2011 11:53am
Quoting HiddenGap
Simply awesome. Thank you for sharing. You are an incredible resource of knowledge and enthusiasm. Glad to have you aboard.

Seconded - being an older "paper trader" I was just printing for my own use......
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,879
  • Edited 12:40pm Apr 14, 2011 12:37pm | Edited 12:40pm
Good time as any to show an example of a bad trade.
The first when I entered. You can see the orders inside of value (safe). Now my orders are sitting almost (dont want to admit it) outside of dva (wrong side of the trade). However, I am still within wva. And dva is lower compared previous days value, imo value is not up its ol lower. Price might be up there but value is not. Not a good enough reason to hold. But a reason none the less. I still have no range outside of the dvah. Smarter and more consevative traders would probably bailed by now. I just need to find a graceful exit or even better BE. But I wanted to show a trade gone not as expected.
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,880
  • Apr 14, 2011 1:45pm Apr 14, 2011 1:45pm
Quoting Islander
Thanks - and I agree that €s looking toppy....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

As I've said earlier in this tread, I'm looking to add my take on AMT to my existing system for trading the European Session and since Medici and I decided not to continue with our own thread, I post regularly in Acumens old thread as entries around "levels" are what I like.

This is an explanation of my view of todays session just posted there and comments are welcome.......

[i]OK - this will tale a little time as it involves VSA...
Excellent analysis! I am very interested in the use of vsa concepts with amt. I found looking at vsa 3 bar combs(too many variables) all day long distract my attention from other important reference "levels". I would like to hear how others are fine tuning these concepts at these important levels. I will be looking forward to reading your posts. I really feel you cant beat vsa when your fine tuning an exit or entry. I also overlap volume indicators (All found on vsa thread) to see where I am at in relation to higher timeframe vol. The vsa thread always talks about background. But you can get an idea of how the shorter term is performing by looking at the higher tf volume. As I read your analysis, it follows the vol. exact. (You are well versed in vsa) Ive included my 5m chart to show how I plot volume to see alittle background. Im looking forward to hear & see how you and others apply these concepts. Were all a work in progress! Where might I find Acumens thread?
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
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