Discuss failure Trades

There's no statistical advantage in this simple piece of advice. Whoever believes otherwise must look at their latest 100 trades and check their entry vs. the price at London open.

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The entry was not perfect. But price is already moving in my favor. I had a trade on EURNZD already this morning and closed it with -20. The Spread alone was 15...i wont touch that pair again and keep an eye on the spread...that was a stupid.

Thank you all for your comments and participation.

Dopey, that trade is sold above the open. Can you please explain your statement?

seagreen, that is a question i cannot answer here in a short time. It has to do with harmonic ratios (fibonacci, golden spiral, etc.) as they are unfold in the nature. Please read Larry Pesavento's book about that. It will switch a light on.

Not talking about London open.....talking about market open...ie when the new daily pivots are painted.

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We have a bullish divergence confirmation

I never implied there was. It's part of a method and approach to trading.

Risk reduced to 8 Pips. TP 30

*EDIT TP hit.

Closed +2

Didn't feel comfortable with this trade.

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If divergence @ resistance --> short

stopped out for 4,5 Pips

I'm not interested in your method. I just wouldn't trade real money without knowing why my method works.

That's fine. I know why it works. Thanks for your comment

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No problem. Happy trading!

A similar approach would be to use the mid point of prior days range, don't go long below or short above.

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Very small Gartley @ Support.

Stop already moved to profit of 9
TP +20

*EDIT Closed @ Res. +16

Today's Result:

1,63 % with 12 Pips in total.

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This was a Fib Confluence trade with divergence confirmation.

+10 Pips.

Yesterday i had a nice short conversation with a very successful currency trader. The only advice he could give me was that this game is a mental one. Systems only take 10 or 15 % into account. The rest is all psycological. He has friends whos system are only 50% or less accurate and making millions and billions...
That's something i knew already but i was never speaking to a guy who is really successful in this business.

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This had perfectly Fib Ratios but no divergence so i closed it for quick 2 Pips...

I really have to get my emotions under control because i'm taking my profits too early almost all the time. I will try to evaluate when i take profits and how far price is moving afterwards.

Trotty warned me not to take trades against the trend but if it comes to divergences these trades are naturally countertrend...

Moin,

There's a contradiction:
You seem to carefully respect each of your methods, at the same time you choose one of the methods when it loosely "seems" to work.
I've seen a lot of traders on ff do this, whether while learning someone else's approach or dealing with several methods that each work alone fairly well.


The successful traders I've seen on ff

i. treat each of several near-automated methods as providing a discrete variable that exactly plays off the others as if in a puzzle, in a parallel way

ii. have a way to determine when one method works, (near-)automate how that method works, use that method until it looks about to fail, and have dozens of other methods in the wings when the market calls for another method, occasionally overlapping a few methods when mostly rotate to the next method in a serial approach

iii. take one exact method (MACD divergences, for instance) and study the heck out of it for its weaknesses and its edge, maybe borrowing from another method occasionally if conditions merit it

iv. take one loose method (trendlines, maybe) and define it the way that fits what you experience after lots of hours, concentrating on the rules and patterns that work the best for this method, and then maybe borrowing as in iii.

v. take one simple method (pinbars, for one) and only take it for what it is, borrowing from others' wisdom about it, while spend almost all one's time on the complex method (news, in one case) to ferret the significance of each reading.


My current philosophy of trading is that
there is an underlying order traders can only call random, in that
one may interpret a reason and/or one area exactly and then
fail to understand a larger area or one very small and important spot on the chart.

If a trader ever thinks any one method "works" ever, when there are infinite ways for that method to go wrong, then the market will bring a harsh lesson.
On the other side of the coin, if the trader is adaptable to changing the method, then there are infinite choices, however many of them right for the market.
Somewhere in the middle, I believe, lies the answer, each one of the list above providing an example of this compromise.

ha-pattern, thank you so much for your detailed statement.

I have to go through your post more often because i didn't get all with reading it once (my english is limited )

Right now i would say my system has only 2 components: the harmonics and the MACD divergence.

The thing i like about the harmonics is that they were discovered in the 30s for the stock market and are still in use for all markets (currency, commodities, indices, etc.). Since the 30s i think market conditions have changed over and over and Harmonics were making good profits in the long run.

I believe that you really have to stick to your system even if you are suffering from strings of losses...
You have to have the absolut control about your losses and need icewater in you veins, that's how you become successful IMO.

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This should be the last trade for today.

SL 6

EDIT: Took off 2/3 of position with profit of 6 Pips. Last Lot is enjoying its free ride with no risk at all