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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #1,821
  • Edited 5:44pm Apr 12, 2011 5:28pm | Edited 5:44pm
Quoting Oxford
Hi,
What made you going out at 1.4436? I took the same short (1.4514) (IBH was at 1.4516), but got out too early, at 1.4480. I'm just courious and want to learn maby something new. Thanks!

Ox
A couple of things. Yesterdays open @1.4479/80. If infact (imo) we could hold above the weekly open, indeed bullish sentiment. But it tested and failed. Both weekly & daily vah's were at the same place & time, price failed the wk open and chose to return back inside both daily & weekly va's. Suggesting an attempt to return to balance. If I saw any strenghth I would have closed and looked for an entry to go long. Thats why I took 2 trades @1.4511. I break my trades into smaller ones. So I can close if I get scared. And let it go if unsure. But atleast I leave the table with something. I got out because I felt it was becoming exhasted. In hindsight it went to londons IBH where they started the push. Squeeze.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,822
  • Apr 12, 2011 6:00pm Apr 12, 2011 6:00pm
Quoting alexm
My intention is to run d demo quantum fund like d pro, we discuss our sentiment, plan our trade, and execute it with 24hr coverage, by selecting member to manage this fund. With share password to execute order.
password to execute a trade? How would this work. Sounds interesting. Will you be making a new thread for this discussion or reveal the info in this thread?
  • #1,823
  • Edited 8:12pm Apr 12, 2011 7:15pm | Edited 8:12pm
Quoting Ipndasno
password to execute a trade? How would this work. Sounds interesting. Will you be making a new thread for this discussion or reveal the info in this thread?
What I mean is a few of us, using same MT4 platform, example is like - member from US during US session, if opportunity come then execute the trade, and another trader from asian or Europe can take over to monitor, if trade run well then hold it, like moving stop to lock profit, or exit trade. vise versa.

My intention is to join force with our resources. and don't need to glue to the monitor 24 hrs, to see how well we perform.
  • #1,824
  • Apr 12, 2011 8:08pm Apr 12, 2011 8:08pm
Quoting mzvega
I closed 1of 2 shorts from @1.4511 at 1.4436. Needed to take something off the table. One is still open. Ive added additional short @1.4460. I think my timing is alittle off, but Ill see how it goes.
Closed 1.4511 short @1.4480. Wanted to take profit. Tired of babysitting the trades. Still holding a short @1.44605 (bad timing on my part) I hold it awhile hoping to atleast BE.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,825
  • Apr 12, 2011 8:08pm Apr 12, 2011 8:08pm
I look at the daily chart, yesterday price did probe down to attract some buyer (also looks like a test to ask the seller to show their hand), and weekly IB is establish, now weekly IB high 1.4660, and that is also my weekly chart high volume pinnacle.

Let's play straddle. Sell stop order at 1.4468 and Buy stop order 1.4497, both with 45 pips SL.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6 enter straddle.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 6 wkly ib target.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #1,826
  • Apr 12, 2011 8:17pm Apr 12, 2011 8:17pm
Quoting alexm
I look at the daily chart, yesterday price did probe down to attract some buyer (also looks like a test to ask the seller to show their hand), and weekly IB is establish, now weekly IB high 1.4660, and that is also my weekly chart high volume pinnacle.

Let's play straddle. Sell stop order at 1.4468 and Buy stop order 1.4497, both with 45 pips SL.
Looks like good entries. . Id join in but Im burnt out for the day.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,827
  • Apr 12, 2011 8:34pm Apr 12, 2011 8:34pm
Quoting mzvega
Looks like good entries. . Id join in but Im burnt out for the day.
Hi Claudia,

I understand your state of mind mate.

Unca Tom's advise may help.... but not easy to do.

MTM Page 10
"It is interesting to note that the army puts a great of effort into training their soldiers. This training is
not only designed to keep the men fit and to maintain discipline, but is designed around drills and
procedures learned by rote. Drills are practised repeatedly until the correct response becomes
automatic. In times of extreme stress which is encountered in the haze of battle (trading in your case),
the soldier is equipped to quickly execute a plan of evasive action, suppressing fear and excitement,
ensuring a correct response to minimise or eradicate whatever threat the soldier is exposed to.
Cultivating this automatic and emotionless response to danger should be your mission too.

Good traders develop a disciplined trading system for themselves. It can be very sophisticated or very
simple, as long as you think it will give you the edge you will certainly need. A system that is strictly
followed avoids the need for emotion, because like the trained soldier, you have already done all the
'thinking' before the problems arrive. This should then force you to act correctly while under trading
duress. Of course, this is easy to say, but very difficult to put into practice."
  • #1,828
  • Apr 12, 2011 8:48pm Apr 12, 2011 8:48pm
This is for your claudia... Hope it help to de-stress a bit.
Inserted Video
  • #1,829
  • Apr 12, 2011 9:38pm Apr 12, 2011 9:38pm
looks like EU had a trend day today, and while it finished off the high, there is no selling tail at the top - which is also the weekly IBH. While price may fall back to test the weekly IBL, if I were trading this week I would now have a target of the weekly DIBH around 4660. While EU stopped one-timeframing today, price was held up by Friday's VAL.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU D TPO 2011-04-12 at 10.29.08 PM.png Size: 117 KB
Change is the only constant
  • #1,830
  • Apr 12, 2011 9:44pm Apr 12, 2011 9:44pm
Quoting tgwhbb
We could see as low as 4310-4300 area, last week's VAH. But I'm more curious to see what happens at the LVN (circled) area between 4340-4380. I think EU will probably spend some time there to build up the area.
So, price came down to the top of that LVN identified earlier, and left in a hurry...very interesting.

It does raise a question...how does one tell if the LVN is going to be filled up or if price will move quickly through it or bounce quickly in it...I need to get better in dealing with LVNs...
Change is the only constant
  • #1,831
  • Apr 12, 2011 11:56pm Apr 12, 2011 11:56pm
Quoting alexm
This is for your claudia... Hope it help to de-stress a bit.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbIqL-lN1B4

LOL!!!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,832
  • Apr 13, 2011 12:12am Apr 13, 2011 12:12am
Quoting alexm
My intention is to run d demo quantum fund like d pro, we discuss our sentiment, plan our trade, and execute it with 24hr coverage, by selecting member to manage this fund. With share password to execute order.
alexm count me in.
  • #1,833
  • Edited 12:25am Apr 13, 2011 12:13am | Edited 12:25am
Quoting tgwhbb
So, price came down to the top of that LVN identified earlier, and left in a hurry...very interesting.

It does raise a question...how does one tell if the LVN is going to be filled up or if price will move quickly through it or bounce quickly in it...I need to get better in dealing with LVNs...
One of those things that make you say hhhhhhmmmmmm............
I can always count on you to ask those questions. I too need a better understanding. Ran across some notes, not sure if I've fully wrapped my mind around it. But see if you can make some sense out of it.

Rule #1
In commercial or hedge markets, low volume numbers are support and resistance – they stop activity – and should be traded as such.
Rule #2
High Volume areas represent value and are attractors. They serve as support and resistance the first time touched only. If not immediately rejected, you can expect to trade around the high volume numbers for one to two hours. Here’s why: It’s where new moves start. New moves come out of the middle. The way the market confirms this is through the retest – it’ll retest a breakout. If it holds, more people will come in and trade.

These are just notes I found, they are not rules, I dont remember the "context" in which I took the notes.


I want to say that possibly the maybe the "Quality" of the touch, is something to consider? Im just as curious as you.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,834
  • Edited 12:55am Apr 13, 2011 12:26am | Edited 12:55am
Quoting tgwhbb
looks like EU had a trend day today, and while it finished off the high, there is no selling tail at the top - which is also the weekly IBH. While price may fall back to test the weekly IBL, if I were trading this week I would now have a target of the weekly DIBH around 4660. While EU stopped one-timeframing today, price was held up by Friday's VAL.
Hi
Jamie,

Possible to elaborate a bit further how do determine one-time framing was stopped? While the profile is still half way building up, and Price today open inside yesterday value.

For me I read it as an open auction within value, which might go both way.
  • #1,835
  • Apr 13, 2011 2:33am Apr 13, 2011 2:33am
Quoting alexm
I look at the daily chart, yesterday price did probe down to attract some buyer (also looks like a test to ask the seller to show their hand), and weekly IB is establish, now weekly IB high 1.4660, and that is also my weekly chart high volume pinnacle.

Let's play straddle. Sell stop order at 1.4468 and Buy stop order 1.4497, both with 45 pips SL.
sell stop trigger, reverse to trigger my stop at 1.4503 -35 pips (should have move stop to BE when it is +10)

buy stop trigger, 1.4497 now move stop to BE.
  • #1,836
  • Apr 13, 2011 6:43am Apr 13, 2011 6:43am
Quoting alexm
Hi
Jamie,

Possible to elaborate a bit further how do determine one-time framing was stopped? While the profile is still half way building up, and Price today open inside yesterday value.

For me I read it as an open auction within value, which might go both way.
i was refering to Tuesday having stopped one-timeframing, not today.
Change is the only constant
  • #1,837
  • Apr 13, 2011 8:44am Apr 13, 2011 8:44am
Quoting alexm
Hi
Jamie,

Possible to elaborate a bit further how do determine one-time framing was stopped? While the profile is still half way building up, and Price today open inside yesterday value.

For me I read it as an open auction within value, which might go both way.
"open auction" "within value" I think theres confusion. Where price opens in relation to value, is one thing. "Thats "directional conviction". If price opens inside value ,you add the va range to the side of the IB thay is most likely to hold to get daily estimated range. To gauge that "directional conviction" by reading "opening types" is adifferent thing. Opening types, help gauge Acceptence, or rejection of where price opens in relation to value. You stopped reading. But thats per Basic MP concepts. Being that this is forex, I adapted those basic rules and use as a per session basis, not full 24h profile. Profile has been around, and has evolved too. But you need to first have a good grasp on the basic MP concepts. But read chapter 4 MOM. Hope the info helps.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,838
  • Apr 13, 2011 9:06am Apr 13, 2011 9:06am
I entered 2 shorts @1.44894 & @1.44884. I would like to see price travel to the other side of yest val. or atleast to current wk val. There is a wpoc @1.4457 that may hold prices up. Ill see what happens.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: wedshort.jpg Size: 238 KB
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,839
  • Edited 3:48pm Apr 13, 2011 9:22am | Edited 3:48pm
Quoting mzvega
I entered 2 shorts @1.44894 & @1.44884. I would like to see price travel to the other side of yest val. or atleast to current wk val. There is a wpoc @1.4457 that may hold prices up. Ill see what happens.
Closed 1.44884 short @ 1.4467 just to take something off the table for the day. Still holding other short @ 1.44889

lookING to posibly add short @ fail of the daily open or IBl

Just added small short @ 1.4475. Let me see how this plays out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: wedshortadd.jpg Size: 232 KB
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,840
  • Apr 13, 2011 10:13am Apr 13, 2011 10:13am
Quoting mzvega
Closed 1.44884 short @ 1.4467 just to take something off the table for the day. Still holding other short @ 1.44889

lookING to posibly add short @ fail of the daily open or IBl

Just added small short @ 1.4475. Let me see how this plays out.
I cant believe I got blindsided by the news (I think its news). Thats me not paying attention. I decided to hold. If prices start to drive above ibh, then Ill fold. imo if commercial wanted to drive prices higher we would have range extention to the upside. Until then Ill hold. Anyone see anything Im not seeing? Like news But news or no news, I just wanted to share why I held that position, instead of bailing out. And where and why I may feel I maybe wrong in my analysis.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
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