AUD/USD

You are right and I was very wrong with my analysis not taking account of this fact. Although I monitored the weekly chart I saw that almost half candle closed upper than halfway. Next week was also very strong. It costed me a lot that I was so stupid..

Aside from technical analysis my feeling is the same that it will drop on the beginning or middle of the next week.

Ok, but from where would you initiate a short position? Technically I do not see any sign of reversing. It is out of the price channel I drew (although I know that lines do not have much emphasis). I think it won't run away so fast and I hope I can get on the right time.

Bearish divergence on the a/u daily chart. Early next week should be a good time to look for a short

Short on Stoc crossover

No shorts unless a short term trader. If you are short term trader you would be probably want the resistance levels of about NOW. 1.06, technically overbought on many time frames and a long term trendline offering some resistance.

But for me historical data, from the rba, points to 1.0864 as being a significant level of resistance and a long term Fib Ext level 1.0880 offering additional resistance at that level. I am expecting it to be difficult to punch through that area, to the point that there will be a couple hundred point pull back or maybe even a reversal.

RBA data link both monthly (goes back to 1969) and daily data (back to 1983) available on this link.

I cannot see the dates on this picture. Where can I download it? My platform shows the data from 1979. In my previous posts I wrote the levels I see as usable resistance levels (1979-1982 lows and highs).

I would enter any short which looks technically good from M5 to D1 charts.

Edit: Now I see you wrote that it would be fundamentally. Why?

When you get strong uptrends where it is obvious price has gone way beyond normal levels it is guesswork finding upper levels to short. The problem is the RBA have given speculators a free reign to squeeze their currency to highs which will ultimately damage their economy as business cannot accommodate such dramatic changes in their pricing in such a short space of time. The options they've got are pretty limited except direct intervention to squeeze out speculators. The interest rate option is not an option they've gone too high that they've generated an easy money carry trade for high yield low risk. To drop them will not work either as commodities are at boiling point about to hit super heated steam levels pretty soon. In short the RBA have created a speculators heaven to drive their currency to levels like 1.4 AUDUSD.

I believe the best play is trendline breakouts when you've got speculators running riot on an FX pair. Basically works like this using point and figure charts if you look at 10 pt box charts we're getting highs, a small pull-back giving a small reversal column put your stop under that column then place a pending order on the trendline break. Your risk is only that small column say 40 pips the reward is up 200 pips if you get in at the right level. Obviously try the revese for shorting to limit your risk. The blue bar is the projected range for the next session the colour determines whether it's a buy or sell. This one is unique though we've hit Mondays projected range high on the last hour of Fridays session.

This is the data link:

RBA data link both monthly (goes back to 1969) and daily data (back to 1983) available on this link.

Produced the chart in excel from the excel data that you get at the above link.


Reason I think fundamentally is that out of Australia's 3 largest trading partners:

1. 2 of them (USA and Japan) are both economically stuffed with only minor signs of genuine recovery.
2. and the other China, has its economy in cool down mode

I believe this will take time to have its effect, and may in the end be negated by the commodity drive done by other nations as financial system gets back on its feet.

Shorts will be a rarity on the AUD and on the whole I will be looking for long entries.

aussie still pushing up, when it will have some retrace ?

After u get a margin call

Not exactly sure when a bearish retrace will happen, price is due for one soon.

As price approaches the #resistance level of a bullish channel, I suspect price to retrace there. I have that target at 1.0650.

AUDUSD Daily Chart

I confirm this information of that level. February and march 1974 has recorded 1.49 (data given with only two decimals). The pick i read in one book was 1.4950 (chart and analysis was together speaking about that level). The lowest was 0.50 in march, april, september and october 2001. According to a broker chart, the lowest level was 0.4780 in march 2001.

You can google AUD history to find more.

Then, we are not yet at the new historic level ever touched. Still remain 4.400 pips lol.

I don't think these pre-float levels of AUDUSD are valid to be honest as far as I'm concerned we do not have any resistance above us now it's free air we are at all time highs right now. That means the only tool that we can use is fib extensions. The longer this upleg goes without a retracement the higher the fib extension this is a very powerful move you have got a situation of money flow from all markets pouring into an AUD carry trade. Speculators like bulls to a red flag see Australia as a place to speculate for easy money on yield differentials and current economic stability.

This strong trend will continue whilst 1) USD remains weak until the Fed raise rates in 12 months time 2) EUR has huge soveriegn debt issues. The money will keep flowing into AUDUSD and AUDJPY. For example if we've topped around here and we do actually get a fib retracement of say 0.382 which gives us around 1.0250 level the extensions give us levels from 1.1 to 1.2 AUDUSD. That is a very high level for this pair where the only sector benefiting from this will be commodities all other sectors will be in a slump. Once the USD starts gathering momentum the bottom will start to fall out of the commodities market in say 2 years time. My guess is Australia will be in recession by 2013. That is why I say RBA should be careful about what they wish for when they come out with announcements about wanting a high currency. It's like saying calling all speculators our doors are open drive our economy into recession.

Or are we?

Here are all high and low of Aussie, given with two decimals. These datas was from http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data...1306&count=all

Look at february 1974 and march 1974, and you will see that aussie was 1.49. "That, was all time highs". For those they think other than data given, they can think also that earth is still flat and the sun is turning around.

Trader bases his judgement (which conclude to decision to take a trade or not), on data and on fact, not on "thinking" and "guessing".

You could go also to RBA site to check this kind of information. It's open to everyone in the world. Just move to find information and you will get it.

Jan-19711.12 Feb-19711.12 Mar-19711.12 Apr-19711.12 May-19711.12 Jun-19711.12 Jul-19711.12 Aug-19711.13 Sep-19711.15 Oct-19711.16 Nov-19711.16 Dec-19711.17 Jan-19721.19 Feb-19721.19 Mar-19721.19 Apr-19721.19 May-19721.19 Jun-19721.19 Jul-19721.19 Aug-19721.19 Sep-19721.19 Oct-19721.19 Nov-19721.19 Dec-19721.21 Jan-19731.27 Feb-19731.35 Mar-19731.41 Apr-19731.42 May-19731.42 Jun-19731.42 Jul-19731.42 Aug-19731.41 Sep-19731.47 Oct-19731.48 Nov-19731.48 Dec-19731.48 Jan-19741.48 Feb-19741.49 Mar-19741.49 Apr-19741.48 May-19741.48 Jun-19741.48 Jul-19741.48 Aug-19741.48 Sep-19741.45 Oct-19741.31 Nov-19741.31 Dec-19741.32 Jan-19751.33 Feb-19751.35 Mar-19751.36 Apr-19751.34 May-19751.34 Jun-19751.34 Jul-19751.31 Aug-19751.28 Sep-19751.27 Oct-19751.26 Nov-19751.26 Dec-19751.25 Jan-19761.26 Feb-19761.26 Mar-19761.25 Apr-19761.24 May-19761.23 Jun-19761.23 Jul-19761.24 Aug-19761.24 Sep-19761.24 Oct-19761.23 Nov-19761.21 Dec-19761.05 Jan-19771.09 Feb-19771.09 Mar-19771.10 Apr-19771.11 May-19771.10 Jun-19771.11 Jul-19771.12 Aug-19771.10 Sep-19771.10 Oct-19771.12 Nov-19771.13 Dec-19771.13 Jan-19781.14 Feb-19781.14 Mar-19781.14 Apr-19781.14 May-19781.13 Jun-19781.14 Jul-19781.15 Aug-19781.15 Sep-19781.15 Oct-19781.17 Nov-19781.15 Dec-19781.14 Jan-19791.14 Feb-19791.13 Mar-19791.12 Apr-19791.11 May-19791.11 Jun-19791.11 Jul-19791.13 Aug-19791.13 Sep-19791.13 Oct-19791.11 Nov-19791.09 Dec-19791.10 Jan-19801.11 Feb-19801.10 Mar-19801.09 Apr-19801.09 May-19801.13 Jun-19801.15 Jul-19801.16 Aug-19801.16 Sep-19801.17 Oct-19801.17 Nov-19801.17 Dec-19801.17 Jan-19811.18 Feb-19811.16 Mar-19811.16 Apr-19811.15 May-19811.14 Jun-19811.14 Jul-19811.14 Aug-19811.14 Sep-19811.15 Oct-19811.14 Nov-19811.15 Dec-19811.13 Jan-19821.11 Feb-19821.09 Mar-19821.06 Apr-19821.05 May-19821.06 Jun-19821.03 Jul-19821.01 Aug-19820.98 Sep-19820.96 Oct-19820.94 Nov-19820.94 Dec-19820.97 Jan-19830.98 Feb-19830.97 Mar-19830.88 Apr-19830.87 May-19830.88 Jun-19830.88 Jul-19830.88 Aug-19830.88 Sep-19830.89 Oct-19830.91 Nov-19830.92 Dec-19830.90 Jan-19840.91 Feb-19840.93 Mar-19840.95 Apr-19840.92 May-19840.91 Jun-19840.88 Jul-19840.83 Aug-19840.85 Sep-19840.83 Oct-19840.84 Nov-19840.86 Dec-19840.84 Jan-19850.82 Feb-19850.74 Mar-19850.70 Apr-19850.66 May-19850.68 Jun-19850.67 Jul-19850.70 Aug-19850.71 Sep-19850.69 Oct-19850.70 Nov-19850.68 Dec-19850.68 Jan-19860.70 Feb-19860.70 Mar-19860.71 Apr-19860.72 May-19860.73 Jun-19860.69 Jul-19860.63 Aug-19860.61 Sep-19860.62 Oct-19860.64 Nov-19860.64 Dec-19860.66 Jan-19870.66 Feb-19870.67 Mar-19870.69 Apr-19870.71 May-19870.71 Jun-19870.72 Jul-19870.71 Aug-19870.71 Sep-19870.73 Oct-19870.71 Nov-19870.69 Dec-19870.71 Jan-19880.71 Feb-19880.71 Mar-19880.73 Apr-19880.75 May-19880.78 Jun-19880.81 Jul-19880.80 Aug-19880.81 Sep-19880.79 Oct-19880.81 Nov-19880.85 Dec-19880.86 Jan-19890.87 Feb-19890.86 Mar-19890.82 Apr-19890.80 May-19890.77 Jun-19890.76 Jul-19890.76 Aug-19890.76 Sep-19890.77 Oct-19890.77 Nov-19890.78 Dec-19890.79 Jan-19900.78 Feb-19900.76 Mar-19900.76 Apr-19900.76 May-19900.76 Jun-19900.78 Jul-19900.79 Aug-19900.81 Sep-19900.83 Oct-19900.80 Nov-19900.77 Dec-19900.77 Jan-19910.78 Feb-19910.78 Mar-19910.77 Apr-19910.78 May-19910.77 Jun-19910.76 Jul-19910.77 Aug-19910.78 Sep-19910.79 Oct-19910.79 Nov-19910.79 Dec-19910.77 Jan-19920.75 Feb-19920.75 Mar-19920.76 Apr-19920.76 May-19920.76 Jun-19920.76 Jul-19920.75 Aug-19920.72 Sep-19920.72 Oct-19920.71 Nov-19920.69 Dec-19920.69 Jan-19930.67 Feb-19930.68 Mar-19930.71 Apr-19930.71 May-19930.70 Jun-19930.67 Jul-19930.68 Aug-19930.68 Sep-19930.65 Oct-19930.66 Nov-19930.66 Dec-19930.67 Jan-19940.70 Feb-19940.72 Mar-19940.71 Apr-19940.72 May-19940.72 Jun-19940.73 Jul-19940.73 Aug-19940.74 Sep-19940.74 Oct-19940.74 Nov-19940.75 Dec-19940.77 Jan-19950.76 Feb-19950.74 Mar-19950.73 Apr-19950.74 May-19950.73 Jun-19950.72 Jul-19950.73 Aug-19950.74 Sep-19950.75 Oct-19950.76 Nov-19950.75 Dec-19950.74 Jan-19960.74 Feb-19960.76 Mar-19960.77 Apr-19960.79 May-19960.80 Jun-19960.79 Jul-19960.79 Aug-19960.78 Sep-19960.79 Oct-19960.79 Nov-19960.80 Dec-19960.80 Jan-19970.78 Feb-19970.77 Mar-19970.79 Apr-19970.78 May-19970.78 Jun-19970.75 Jul-19970.74 Aug-19970.74 Sep-19970.72 Oct-19970.72 Nov-19970.70 Dec-19970.66 Jan-19980.66 Feb-19980.67 Mar-19980.67 Apr-19980.65 May-19980.63 Jun-19980.60 Jul-19980.62 Aug-19980.59 Sep-19980.59 Oct-19980.62 Nov-19980.63 Dec-19980.62 Jan-19990.63 Feb-19990.64 Mar-19990.63 Apr-19990.64 May-19990.66 Jun-19990.66 Jul-19990.66 Aug-19990.64 Sep-19990.65 Oct-19990.65 Nov-19990.64 Dec-19990.64 Jan-20000.66 Feb-20000.63 Mar-20000.61 Apr-20000.60 May-20000.58 Jun-20000.59 Jul-20000.59 Aug-20000.58 Sep-20000.55 Oct-20000.53 Nov-20000.52 Dec-20000.55 Jan-20010.56 Feb-20010.53 Mar-20010.50 Apr-20010.50 May-20010.52 Jun-20010.52 Jul-20010.51 Aug-20010.52 Sep-20010.50 Oct-20010.50 Nov-20010.52 Dec-20010.51 Jan-20020.52 Feb-20020.51 Mar-20020.53 Apr-20020.54 May-20020.55 Jun-20020.57 Jul-20020.55 Aug-20020.54 Sep-20020.55 Oct-20020.55 Nov-20020.56 Dec-20020.56 Jan-20030.58 Feb-20030.60 Mar-20030.60 Apr-20030.61 May-20030.65 Jun-20030.67 Jul-20030.66 Aug-20030.65 Sep-20030.66 Oct-20030.69 Nov-20030.72 Dec-20030.74 Jan-20040.77 Feb-20040.78 Mar-20040.75 Apr-20040.74 May-20040.70 Jun-20040.69 Jul-20040.72 Aug-20040.71 Sep-20040.70 Oct-20040.73 Nov-20040.77 Dec-20040.77 Jan-20050.77 Feb-20050.78 Mar-20050.78 Apr-20050.77 May-20050.77 Jun-20050.77 Jul-20050.75 Aug-20050.76 Sep-20050.77 Oct-20050.75 Nov-20050.74 Dec-20050.74 Jan-20060.75 Feb-20060.74 Mar-20060.73 Apr-20060.74 May-20060.76 Jun-20060.74 Jul-20060.75 Aug-20060.76 Sep-20060.75 Oct-20060.75 Nov-20060.77 Dec-20060.79 Jan-20070.78 Feb-20070.78 Mar-20070.79 Apr-20070.83 May-20070.83 Jun-20070.84 Jul-20070.87 Aug-20070.83 Sep-20070.85 Oct-20070.90 Nov-20070.90 Dec-20070.87 Jan-20080.88 Feb-20080.91 Mar-20080.92 Apr-20080.93 May-20080.95 Jun-20080.95 Jul-20080.96 Aug-20080.88 Sep-20080.82 Oct-20080.69 Nov-20080.66 Dec-20080.67 Jan-20090.68 Feb-20090.65 Mar-20090.67 Apr-20090.72 May-20090.76 Jun-20090.80 Jul-20090.80 Aug-20090.84 Sep-20090.86 Oct-20090.91 Nov-20090.92 Dec-20090.90 Jan-20100.91 Feb-20100.89 Mar-20100.91 Apr-20100.93 May-20100.87 Jun-20100.85 Jul-20100.88 Aug-20100.90 Sep-20100.94 Oct-20100.98 Nov-20100.99 Dec-20100.99 Jan-20111.00 Feb-20111.01 Mar-20111.01

I've said before at 1.03 that as long as the dollar continues to be weak and Crude, Gold, copper continue to the upside, the risk favors the AUD greatly. On top of that, the high currency is helping the RBA battle inflation so right now there's no urgency to start monetary easing to trap the rise in their currency.

That said - it is not a bad idea to tighten stops just in case dollar does get a bounce after the Federal government was not shutdown over the weekend.

AUDUSD vs crude:

http://i53.tinypic.com/167m5mw.png

AUDUSD vs Gold

http://i52.tinypic.com/2laalas.png

AUDUSD -- there's really no measure how far this pair can go.

http://i53.tinypic.com/w1qt8z.png

----
blog: http://thinkfirstblinksecond.com

Hi nice to meet you all!
After the news on the US not shutting down I'm waiting for a dip.I think it's more than likely due to profit taking on the Australian open teamed with others dumping on the fear that no shutdown will cause a correction or even reversal.

The fact that more serious talks are coming that I think are going to get ugly I got the pair as bullish and I'm putting a buy order at .0470 and looking at around 80 pips.
Anyone think this is a bad move?

These were government agreed and calculated levels, that worked for many years beforehand, I don't see why they would be invalid.


true if your first statement is true; but I don't understand why you believe your first statement is correct.

same as above.

EUR debt crisis and other EUR difficulties is far from over I believe. Spain, Porutgal, Greece, Romania, Ireland and others are being held a float by a strong German economy only. Eventually 5+ nations have got to pull down 1 strong.

Again if the pre-float era is disregarded as resistance.


If this is the case, Australia still got a long time to go before they hit all time pre-float highs, but towards the end of all this it would be good to be investing in an Australian agriculturally driven business then.

Like the overlays on the charts.


Reasons for AUD bull:

1. Commodities driving AUD up.
2. Weak overall USD and JPY driving AUD up.
3. EUR debt crisis not under control driving the AUD in comparison.
4. GBP a cross between the EUR and USD so far as difficulties, driving the AUD up.
5. Up until pre-float resistance levels and fib extension levels. AUD up until at the very least 1.086.
6. The highest interest rates out of the top 5 traded currencies USD, EUR, JPY, GBP and AUD.

Reasons for AUD bear:

1. US China and JPY trade balances with the AUD keeping the AUD tamed.
2. USD government not shutting down also keeping the AUD tamed.
3. AUD building sector not doing so well.

The BULLS well and truly have it in the long term as the reasons for the AUD to be bearish are small in comparison to the reasons for it to be bullish.


Reasons for BULL, reasons for BEAR should be added to by everyone, that way it is not just sentiment but knowledge that we are putting into action.
......

Hi everybody

I have two AUD/USD sell orders.
from 1,037, 1,056.
TP 2 at 1,047
TP 1 at 1.027

is this the most awaited correction, that is happening right now?