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Phantom 6 System

  • #1,221
  • Edited Apr 9, 2011 4:53am Apr 8, 2011 10:52am | Edited Apr 9, 2011 4:53am
Quoting xere
There are 2 different points of view: I like to use a little MMTU (0.5) and PP (0.25). This way almost every basket reaches "easily" his target without a great DD (in an account with 5000 € and 1:500). It runs slowly but safe in the two weeks I am testing it. Some people prefers rise the PP until 3%. This is a taste question: some people have a great aversion to risk (as me), and some others not (but, of course, the profits will be exponentially bigger).
Right now, the Margin protect level just avoid send more new orders when it's reached. I...
Thanks for your reply Xere,

When you say "Avoiding the new ones" I understand that it is the same idea than "Margin protect" does.

The first trade that my demo has opened is USD-CHF (buy), if you take a look to 1D and 1H, Would you bet USD-CHF is going UP?. Maybe this system can be better if we "force" to the system only open trades with 1D/1H Trend.

Sorry for my English, I´m Spanish too.
  • #1,222
  • Apr 8, 2011 2:53pm Apr 8, 2011 2:53pm
Quoting morepipspls
The first trade that my demo has opened is USD-CHF (buy), if you take a look to 1D and 1H, Would you bet USD-CHF is going UP?. Maybe this system can be better if we "force" to the system only open trades with 1D/1H Trend.

Sorry for my English, I´m Spanish too.
Long term daily trend does not have much impact. The phantoms take advantage of shorter term moves. Trading with the trend was tried a while back with the qqe filter. Dont remember anyone having any luck with it including myself. The thing to remember is the phantoms create a loose synthetic hedge. The way you get a basket close is when 1 or a few pairs will make a strong move. The rest of the time its balance and counter balance, waiting for that strong move. If you limit to only trading with the trend, you may no be able to balance out the basket when needed.

The shorter term trend will have more impact (1 hr, 30 min). I will sometimes cut winners/losers manually to free up margin and I look at the shorter term trends to decide which ones.
  • #1,223
  • Apr 8, 2011 3:18pm Apr 8, 2011 3:18pm
Quoting morepipspls
Thanks for your reply Xere,

When you say "Avoiding the new ones" I understand that it is the same idea than "Margin protect" does.

The first trade that my demo has opened is USD-CHF (buy), if you take a look to 1D and 1H, Would you bet USD-CHF is going UP?. Maybe this system can be better if we "force" to the system only open trades with 1D/1H Trend.

Sorry for my English, I´m Spanish too.
Hi, spanish friend.
As thorn explained very well, the basket phantom philosophy is that we track 6 pairs (inside a greater one with 14), but in a phantom way. I mean, the system take an instant picture (photo) of the market. But as thorn said, the idea is to trade a synthetic hedge basket, and it only happens if each pair has it's direction pre-defined.

Then watches how each pair moves (phantom PL). At this point, we have several different approaches, but the AddSix approach, by instance, waits until a pair from our 6 ones is on top of the list (then, this pair is performing the best of the 14). When this happens, it launch a trade for this pair in its predefined direction. If the pair moves with our bet, fantastic, I get my profit and wait until the next. If moves against us, don't worry, because the next pair that gets the top will be traded. This way, the system is hedging, or balancing its losses. It's a sort-term strategy, and just trades the best pairs.

Regards
  • #1,224
  • Apr 8, 2011 6:10pm Apr 8, 2011 6:10pm
Quoting morepipspls
Thanks for your reply Xere,

When you say "Avoiding the new ones" I understand that it is the same idea than "Margin protect" does.

The first trade that my demo has opened is USD-CHF (buy), if you take a look to 1D and 1H, Would you bet USD-CHF is going UP?. Maybe this system can be better if we "force" to the system only open trades with 1D/1H Trend.

Sorry for my English, I´m Spanish too.
Hello MorePipsPlease,

welcome on board. After the exhaustive answers you got from Thorn and Xere, here you have a graphic idea of what can happen, usually.

The blue line is the balance (the last closed basket) and the yellow line is the floating P/L (typically negative for a while before to go(run) above the blu one).

Watch at it and fine tune your propensity to risk.

Good weekend.
/achab
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Balance_Equity_Indicator_03b.PNG Size: 29 KB
  • #1,225
  • Edited 5:20am Apr 9, 2011 4:59am | Edited 5:20am
Ok, Thank you for your explanation about this system. If we take a look again to my first trade, USD/CHF 1H, you can see what will happen with a high likelihood-> little top, Top and little top ->(Go Down) and if you are a chartist…. .

My question is why only those pairs, we could select the best candidates for our "BEST PHANTOMS SIX", we have a lot of pairs in Forex. Our computer/laptop could search 6 pairs whom it will be a Synthetic Hedge too with best conditions to win all the time, it will adapt perfectly when market changes:

Filter 1. Trend

You can compare price now with price 5 days ago (weekly trend), 20 days ago (monthly trend) and why not…1 year ago (primary trend). We could increase a lot our chance of winning from the first trade

Filter 2. Spread

If you have several candidates pairs for buy/sell phantoms, it is better if you choose the lowest spread pairs

Filter 3. Swap

I don´t know how long it is going to last every trade, if you add positive interest rate to your positions it is another advantage.

So we can a add a lot of advantages to our basket and it will increase our chance of success every trade or not to lose so much money. The Best Phantoms for all possible situations of the market. Our primary target: "Adding maximum number of advantages in our trading".
  • #1,226
  • Apr 9, 2011 5:17am Apr 9, 2011 5:17am
Quoting achab
Hello MorePipsPlease,

welcome on board. After the exhaustive answers you got from Thorn and Xere, here you have a graphic idea of what can happen, usually.

The blue line is the balance (the last closed basket) and the yellow line is the floating P/L (typically negative for a while before to go(run) above the blu one).

Watch at it and fine tune your propensity to risk.

Good weekend.
/achab
Thanks Achab,

Which settings are you using? (MMTU,PP, Leverage, Investment).

Same to you

Morepipspls
  • #1,227
  • Apr 9, 2011 9:49am Apr 9, 2011 9:49am
Hello fox,

here you have the final results of my test number 10.

Phantom_AddSix_02a original was running on Alpari_UK demo (Leverage 500:1) since 62 days with these settings:

MMTU = 5.0
PP = 0.2
Reset Hour Interval: 8
Pairs: the default ones
Slippage: 3


The performance have been:

Starting on 2011/02/03 with 10,000 balance
Last trade closed on 2011/04/05 with 25,011.42 balance (+150% in a bit than 2 months).

First trade opened lots: 2.50
Last trade opened lots: 6.24

Largest Floating Loss: -15,216.41
Lowest Margin Level: 22.54
Max Floating Drawdown: 88.82%

The full stats will be reachable on MT4i.com clicking here (Downloadable Spreadsheet format, too).

The high MMTU and low PP were wanted, because I like the idea that Phantom closes many baskets but quickly.
Someone doesn't like this choice because more risky than the opposite (low MMTU, higher PP) but since I am here, I had no evidence about it. So, the question is still open (everybody has something to say is welcome).

Soon I'll post other results of my test (tests #1, #2, #4, #7, etc.).

Good weekend.
/achab
  • #1,228
  • Apr 9, 2011 11:49am Apr 9, 2011 11:49am
Quoting achab
Hello fox,

here you have the final results of my test number 10.

Phantom_AddSix_02a original was running on Alpari_UK demo (Leverage 500:1) since 62 days with these settings:

MMTU = 5.0
PP = 0.2
Reset Hour Interval: 8
Pairs: the default ones
Slippage: 3


The performance have been:

Starting on 2011/02/03 with 10,000 balance
Last trade closed on 2011/04/05 with 25,011.42 balance (+150% in a bit than 2 months).

First trade opened lots: 2.50
Last trade opened lots: 6.24

Largest Floating Loss: -15,216.41
Lowest Margin Level:...

Max Floating DD: 88,82% ???

Do you need more evidence for not choosing such high MMTU? With this risk you should double your account in 2 hours, not in 2 months.

In fact, I know some EA's that can do that.

I think too that demos are for that, but anyone would go live with that performance. I think the key for Phantom EA's is not the profit, but how to avoid the very possible death trade.......
  • #1,229
  • Apr 9, 2011 3:00pm Apr 9, 2011 3:00pm
Quoting morepipspls
My question is why only those pairs, we could select the best candidates for our "BEST PHANTOMS SIX", we have a lot of pairs in Forex. Our computer/laptop could search 6 pairs whom it will be a Synthetic Hedge too with best conditions to win all the time, it will adapt perfectly when market changes:

Filter 1. Trend

You can compare price now with price 5 days ago (weekly trend), 20 days ago (monthly trend) and why not…1 year ago (primary trend). We could increase a lot our chance of winning from the first trade

Filter 2. Spread

If you have...
There are many combinations of pairs to use, as well as the number of traded pairs you can try. If you have any coding skills with mlq4 its pretty easy to configure the phantoms the way you want. The options and combos are unending so its fun to try and test different things. By doing that you will get a good idea what options, pairs, setting, etc you feel comfortable with as well as the performance. I would test anything at least a month or two because the performance can vary from week to week. I trade them low risk (small lots) and happy if they are churning out 3-5% for the month. I know some of the other guys are more agressive and get bigger profits and thats fine if you can tolerate the higher drawdowns.

Filter 1 trend: If you could code it that way maybe it would have some benefit. I think it would be very complex to do. But everyone defines a "trend" a different way. And every time frame has its own trend. So what would you consider the best time frame to base it off of? If you want search the thread for the phantoms that had the qqe trend filter in them. I tried it for a while didnt like the performance.

Filter 2 spread: Could be a considered. I normally dont trade any pairs that are more than 4.5 pips. But the higher spread pairs are usually the bigger movers (higher ADR) also and that can benefit the basket.

Filter 3 swap: Nowadays it would be difficult to construct any synthetic basket that would give you positive swap.
  • #1,230
  • Apr 9, 2011 3:45pm Apr 9, 2011 3:45pm
Quoting Caillou
Max Floating DD: 88,82% ???

Do you need more evidence for not choosing such high MMTU? With this risk you should double your account in 2 hours, not in 2 months.
I thinks Achab was just testing many different settings. But yea, you would need balls of steel to trade like that. I start getting ill if DD reaches 5%.

I will be starting some new tests using different number of pairs, number of traded pairs, etc. Settings will be conservative. Maybe a few with the new stuff Xere is cooking up. I will try to post up a descripion and stats link to each over the next few weeks. I try some strange stuff sometimes, so its not going to be the stock phantoms. Dont be shocked if some completly self destruct.

http://www.mt4i.com/users/thorn_1/stats
Stock ph6_02a trade logic, 8 traded pairs instead of 6.
MMTU 1.0 PP 0.33 Lev 50:1

http://www.mt4i.com/users/thorn/stats
This one just for for fun. 22 traded pairs, every hour it trades the biggest LOSER not winner. Started friday, strange it did very well for first day. I think this one will die quick, but hey you never know. Maybe in choppy market it may work good. MMTU 0.8 PP 0.25 Lev 100:1

Going to start up few more next week. All demos USD and 3k starting balance. Can post the actual EA im using if anyone wants it.
  • #1,231
  • Apr 9, 2011 4:19pm Apr 9, 2011 4:19pm
Quoting thorn
I thinks Achab was just testing many different settings. But yea, you would need balls of steel to trade like that. I start getting ill if DD reaches 5%.

I will be starting some new tests using different number of pairs, number of traded pairs, etc. Settings will be conservative. Maybe a few with the new stuff Xere is cooking up. I will try to post up a descripion and stats link to each over the next few weeks. I try some strange stuff sometimes, so its not going to be the stock phantoms. Dont be shocked if some completly self destruct.

http://www.mt4i.com/users/thorn_1/stats
Stock...

Hi Thorn,

I know Achab just wants to test, and we should be gratefull for all his contribution. I'm a great fun of Phantom EA's, for me a 10% DD starts to be uncomfortable.
Your "Counter Trend" Version is really interesting, and results are promising, just one day but promising. Could you post this version? I think it worths a try. Maybe the biggest winner is exhausted and a small PP could be reached quickly. In all my test, my floating P/L is almost always in the negative side before closing (not always) in profit, so if we enter just the opposite....who knows.....

Thank you Thorn
  • #1,232
  • Apr 9, 2011 4:24pm Apr 9, 2011 4:24pm
Quoting thorn
http://www.mt4i.com/users/thorn_1/stats
Stock ph6_02a trade logic, 8 traded pairs instead of 6.
MMTU 1.0 PP 0.33 Lev 50:1

http://www.mt4i.com/users/thorn/stats
This one just for for fun. 22 traded pairs, every hour it trades the biggest LOSER not winner. Started friday, strange it did very well for first day. I think this one will die quick, but hey you never know. Maybe in choppy market it may work good. MMTU 0.8 PP 0.25 Lev 100:1

Going to start up few more next week. All demos USD and 3k starting balance. Can post the...
I can't yell any louder ! ;-) PLEASE post them all, but especially the Loser theory I am very interested in ... thanks thanks thanks in advance !
"We are all just prisoners ... of our own device ..." (Hotel California)
  • #1,233
  • Apr 9, 2011 6:21pm Apr 9, 2011 6:21pm
Quoting Caillou
Hi Thorn,

I know Achab just wants to test, and we should be gratefull for all his contribution. I'm a great fun of Phantom EA's, for me a 10% DD starts to be uncomfortable.
Your "Counter Trend" Version is really interesting, and results are promising, just one day but promising. Could you post this version? I think it worths a try. Maybe the biggest winner is exhausted and a small PP could be reached quickly. In all my test, my floating P/L is almost always in the negative side before closing (not always) in profit, so if we enter just the...
Hi Caillou,

thanks for understanding my devotion to this thread. I like to share my results because any test is important, even if different or opposite of what I need and think.

Anyway, sometimes I start a demo using the setting 10 times more aggressive I need (for example MMTU=3 and PP=1 when I will use MMTU=0.3 and PP=0.1), because I can easily calculate the future results just cutting a zero.

By the way, in real I am the opposite of aggressive. In fact, the most aggressive real account I have reached these worst levels:
Lowest Margin %: 602.86%, Largest Floating Loss: $-352.08, Max Floating Drawdown %: -4.25%.

And I repeat, even if I feel uncomfortable anytime when the EA goes against the trend and much more when it reaches higher DD (especially for more than one day), I force myself to think positive because of EA inner capacity to recover. So, until the account doesn't blow up (just avoiding the margin calls), the situation "must" change direction and close in profit (watch at the attached picture of my post #1224, when last Friday I got the Largest Floating Loss in my second and bigger real account).

This is the reason why, conceptually, the only problem with Phantoms is the margin call, therefore the broker and its leverage, therefore the drawdown, therefore to stop opening new positions and waiting for the basket recover.

Therefore I like the Phantom_AddSix_03b that opens "Only one trade during minute 0".

Any comments on that?

Good Sunday.
/achab
  • #1,234
  • Apr 9, 2011 11:26pm Apr 9, 2011 11:26pm
Quoting xxl205
I can't yell any louder ! ;-) PLEASE post them all, but especially the Loser theory I am very interested in ... thanks thanks thanks in advance !
Here you go. You can open up the EA's and check the settings and read special notes at top of the code. Feel free to change anything as I know everyone has their own way of trading these phantoms.

One special note for the phantom 22: Not all brokers have the pairs it uses so double check your platform. I know it will work on Ibfx,vantagefx, fxopen,smarttradefx and Oanda. Alpari-us it wont. Those are the only demo platforms I use so dont know about other brokers. You could also recode it to trade only a specific number of pairs also. The trading of all 22 is kind of bold and probably risky. I also coded it with "all symbol trades in profit" option. This so you would only get one bad trade if a strong mover was biggest loser for many hours. Also, use the graphic interface setting to yes(for both EA's). I recoded it to display the 22 pairs, it works fine. Many thanks to Xere for that. Remember this one is only for fun.

The other EA's Im working on are not ready yet, it is the weekend after all. Maybe by tomorrow night or next week. I like to run something before posting in case there are any bugs.


And of course these are not "my" EA's..They belong to everyone who participates in this thread. With due credit and thanks to Metacoder who wrote the original code, and the many others who have modified and improved on it over time.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Phantom_Add_8.mq4   72 KB | 286 downloads
File Type: mq4 Phantom_22_big_loser.mq4   91 KB | 279 downloads
  • #1,235
  • Apr 10, 2011 1:50am Apr 10, 2011 1:50am
Quoting achab
Hi Caillou,

thanks for understanding my devotion to this thread. I like to share my results because any test is important, even if different or opposite of what I need and think.

Anyway, sometimes I start a demo using the setting 10 times more aggressive I need (for example MMTU=3 and PP=1 when I will use MMTU=0.3 and PP=0.1), because I can easily calculate the future results just cutting a zero.

By the way, in real I am the opposite of aggressive. In fact, the most aggressive real account I have reached these worst levels:
Lowest Margin...
Good Morning Achab,

I'm with you, the recovery power of these EA's is amazing, but sometimes the more trades you have, the quicker the recovery is.

Anyway tomorrow I'm going to test Loser Version from Thorn and a Trailing Stop with MPTM from Steve. I will tell you how it goes.

Thank you
  • #1,236
  • Apr 10, 2011 2:23am Apr 10, 2011 2:23am
Quoting thorn
Here you go. You can open up the EA's and check the settings and read special notes at top of the code. Feel free to change anything as I know everyone has their own way of trading these phantoms.

One special note for the phantom 22: Not all brokers have the pairs it uses so double check your platform. I know it will work on Ibfx,vantagefx, fxopen,smarttradefx and Oanda. Alpari-us it wont. Those are the only demo platforms I use so dont know about other brokers. You could also recode it to trade only a specific number of pairs also. The trading...
Thank you Thorn,

I will have to change some pairs since I'm with Alpari UK. Are the 22 pairs forming a syntetic hedge?
  • #1,237
  • Apr 10, 2011 4:09am Apr 10, 2011 4:09am
Quoting thorn
Here you go. You can open up the EA's and check the settings and read special notes at top of the code. Feel free to change anything as I know everyone has their own way of trading these phantoms.

One special note for the phantom 22: Not all brokers have the pairs it uses so double check your platform. I know it will work on Ibfx,vantagefx, fxopen,smarttradefx and Oanda. Alpari-us it wont. Those are the only demo platforms I use so dont know about other brokers. You could also recode it to trade only a specific number of pairs also. The trading...
Thank you very much, you're the man ! I was wondering what that biggest loser strategy would work like some weeks ago here in this thread also, but as I am not capable coding it, I had to wait and sit it out if anyone would pick it up or maybe even listen to me

Now I will for sure fire up demo accounts with your both eas and I am waiting for more ideas to come. Thanx again !
"We are all just prisoners ... of our own device ..." (Hotel California)
  • #1,238
  • Edited 8:14am Apr 10, 2011 5:50am | Edited 8:14am
Quoting thorn
There are many combinations of pairs to use, as well as the number of traded pairs you can try. If you have any coding skills with mlq4 its pretty easy to configure the phantoms the way you want. The options and combos are unending so its fun to try and test different things. By doing that you will get a good idea what options, pairs, setting, etc you feel comfortable with as well as the performance. I would test anything at least a month or two because the performance can vary from week to week. I trade them low risk (small lots) and happy if they...
Hi all,

If I was programmer but I´m not……My hope is programmers of this thread could share my vision and build a system with some of my ideas and your ideas too.

It is almost impossible to teach your computer to analyze the trend, but it is true that if one pair has now a lower price than a week,month, several month ago…I won´t bet that it is going to get a higher price.

This system just has the amazing recovery thanks to synthetic hedge, that is great, but if your first,second... trade goes with the trend,and in the second step, the system choose the pairs with lowest possible spread and after that, with lowest negative swap or positive swap.
You are getting a lower risk and you don´t need a huge basket. Do you sleep well with a 90% DD?.

Regarding to the profit, if you look the "Bal_eq_ind", the basket that you are trading has its own trend and volatility (diversification is always a good way to get a lower risk). You can adjust the profit pct to this volatility through ATR indicator and why not, SL too.

I hope that everyone here has the same target: "Lower risk, higher profit", it is the only way….

We are playing with the most intelligent and rich people of the world, they need that you buy when they are selling, you can see what they are doing all the time, (long term trend) . Their target: Clean your pocket, if we play with fire…..(high DD)…You know what will happen one day. I can do this idea everyday but I would have to spend a lot of time watching charts and I have a full time job. Thanks to your knowledge we can build a system that trade in short term but it could survive in long term.

I prefer that my first trade would be the best option (goes with the trend or with Big guys trade, lowest spread and Swap) and it is inside an synthetic hedge pairs: Recovery if we get wrong.



Have a great Sunday!
  • #1,239
  • Apr 10, 2011 8:03am Apr 10, 2011 8:03am
0.075 PP is +5.07%
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/them...b-041-pp/99464
http://tinypic.com/r/4vssvt/7

2.0 PP is +17.09%
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/them...b-041-pp/99466
http://tinypic.com/r/90rqs6/7
  • #1,240
  • Apr 10, 2011 8:33am Apr 10, 2011 8:33am
Quoting TheMaxx
0.075 PP is +5.07%
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/them...b-041-pp/99464
http://tinypic.com/r/4vssvt/7

2.0 PP is +17.09%
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/them...b-041-pp/99466
http://tinypic.com/r/90rqs6/7
Great results The Maxx. What is your max DD on your second test?
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