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vsa with Malcolm

  • #18,341
  • Apr 8, 2011 6:41am Apr 8, 2011 6:41am
Quoting dvarrin
How do you draw the trigger lines? If you don't know what happened after my entry, what would make it a bad entry?

After seeing what happened later I also understand that it was a bad entry, but doing so VSA would be only a tool to explain the past.

What makes my entry a bad entry at the time of the entry? Also on my chart, the second green bar after my entry is an up bar with higher volume and I was quite surprised to see that big red bar coming right after!!!
Trigger candles are high volume candles like you see on my chart.

OK, you know that background is strong, trend is up, so you are looking for a place going long. That red candle you say ns is not really ns for me. It looks more like a test. Testing of what? Nothing really. So you should wait. Wait for what? Price going to test last high volume area. If it doesn't go, no entry for you and you will sit and wait. So in your case it went to the trigger and tested it. So there is your long opportunity with small risk. If you are right you are right, if you are wrong you would have lost not much.

So your trade was bad because you were looking to buy and you bought it on top.
  • #18,342
  • Apr 8, 2011 6:41am Apr 8, 2011 6:41am
Quoting Tdj
Hi dvarrin

I didn't mean you should check the last 6 months of trading, but just wanted to say that if you want to learn this you have to analyse previous market behaviour.
Malcolm said that 5 min for forex isn't enough, but for me personally eur is so volatile that in most cases you miss the move if you wait for tests, etc. after quick reactions on 15 min chart. To me 15 min is good for entering after there is evident accumulation or distribution taking place over couple of hours. Otherwise 5 min + 60 min suits me the most.
The trade you took...
You're right. My test bar did a lower low than the previous bar and it that case we should not take it :-(
  • #18,343
  • Apr 8, 2011 6:44am Apr 8, 2011 6:44am
Quoting dvarrin
But why is it not a great setup? If you don't see what happened afterwards it looks like a really good setup (rising volume in the trading range and on the breakout, price making higher highs on higher volume after the breakout, test bar with 2 up bars following and increasing volume, following the direction of higher timeframes).


Really what makes a good setup then?
Your entry IMO isnt a bad one. I'll write more later, but just like KinsaleForex said the next bar after your entry should have alerted you. You had a narrow range up bar closing off the highs on even lower volume then the test. That's a weak bar. Your getting countermanding signals. The market at best will drift sideways. The bar after is another low volume up bar closing of its highs. This is the lowest volume bar since the open of London. How can prices go up from there?
  • #18,344
  • Apr 8, 2011 6:59am Apr 8, 2011 6:59am
Quoting 1pipperhour
Trigger candles are high volume candles like you see on my chart.

OK, you know that background is strong, trend is up, so you are looking for a place going long. That red candle you say ns is not really ns for me. It looks more like a test. Testing of what? Nothing really. So you should wait. Wait for what? Price going to test last high volume area. If it doesn't go, no entry for you and you will sit and wait. So in your case it went to the trigger and tested it. So there is your long opportunity with small risk. If you are right you are right,...
I already understand a bit better. I'll post other charts in the coming days ;-)

Thanks a lot to all of you guys ;-)

I really like the drawing of the trigger lines.
  • #18,345
  • Apr 8, 2011 7:13am Apr 8, 2011 7:13am
Quoting dvarrin
Here is the kind of trade I could take. Long timeframe is bullish. There is an effort to rise followed, after a red bar, with 2 green bars with increasing volume. Then the price retraces to form a no supply bar. And the bar immediately after broke the top of the no supply bar. And you can notice the general increase in volume at the end of the trading range and during the breakout. I would go long on that bar. Is it right?

I added some comments on the chart.
Well as I mentioned today was tricky as Asia ate up all the normal ADR making any long tricky to enter as no one knows just how much further up SM are willing to take it.

I have marked up a few points of interest but again they are all quiet a while before LO so many would miss these.

Green lines from left to right...

1. Trigger bar 1
2. NS after trigger bar giving long signal... not off a trigger level but we are in a rising market with strength in the background. Safe entry
3. Trigger bar 2 (I have marked on this trigger level)
4. Reaction 1 at trigger bar 2 trigger level... NS / 2 bar reversal off the trigger. Safe entry 2 (You know here that you are good for 20+ pips up to at least the days high... anymore? Who knows as we are nearing the ADR already with that previous daily high
5. Reaction 2 we see a squat bar (effor to fall) with it's low on the trigegr and rejection (notice something here... this reaction 2 was on higher volume than reaction 1. What is this telling us? Is it being bought or are we seeing effort to eat through demand?)
6. Reaction 3... again we are once again seeing another increase in volume. We have another high volume downbar into the trigger zone immediately rejected by the next up bar on increased volume... 2 bars later we have a squat bar on which I would enter long off it's high as I now know that after 3 rejections we are seeing buyers and should see higher prices. Safe entry 3 (other than possible ADR issues)
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,346
  • Apr 8, 2011 7:13am Apr 8, 2011 7:13am
Quoting dvarrin
I already understand a bit better. I'll post other charts in the coming days ;-)

Thanks a lot to all of you guys ;-)

I really like the drawing of the trigger lines.
Yeah, keep posting charts and people will keep replying! There are a lot of us using triggers in here.
  • #18,347
  • Apr 8, 2011 7:23am Apr 8, 2011 7:23am
From a daily perspective sundays are to be ignored. Fridays cannot be compared to Thursdays due to the shortened trading session but they can be compared to prior Fridays.

I am trading a 12 hour chart down and looking for entries on test days for the weekly move . Trading smaller times frames you get caught up in the noise. i wonder how many traders lost 100 pip and more yesterday when they got caught in the ugly noise / range day after interest rate annoucements. However we know form the higher time frame that Monday was a test and that since then trend has been up and weekly target is in the 1.4450 to 1.4480 area.

EU moves 300 to 350 pip a week on average and instead of being at my computer 24/7 these days i prefer one trade for 200 pip a week. All i have to do is wait for that test. Monday was that test day in US session ... only 2/3 the volume of a typical Monday on a 12 hour chart into 1.4150. so we should see our weekly target being hit in the 1.4450 to 1.4480 area today.

I have already hit target for the week of 200 pip (about 12% on account with 3% risk) so am out of all positions other than an oil long at the moment

always consider all time frames before you trade. If you are trading the 5 min chart for 40 to 50 pip targets consider the trend / vsa background on a 60 min chart down


Quoting dvarrin
I'm checking the higher timeframes. If we look at some currency pairs now we see that H1 is in an uptrend, Daily is in an uptrend, even weekly. Then I'm looking for a long entry, but that's right when there is a new reversal to the bearish side. And also I'm using 5m charts or 15m because I don't understand how to read the volume on higher time frames. If we look at the daily time frame, there is always a very narrow spread bar with very little volume. So each Sunday gives a no-demand or no-supply bar. Can we really use that?

On which timeframe...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #18,348
  • Apr 8, 2011 7:25am Apr 8, 2011 7:25am
Quoting pres78
Well as I mentioned today was tricky as Asia ate up all the normal ADR making any long tricky to enter as no one knows just how much further up SM are willing to take it.

I have marked up a few points of interest but again they are all quiet a while before LO so many would miss these.

Green lines from left to right...

1. Trigger bar 1
2. NS after trigger bar giving long signal... not off a trigger level but we are in a rising market with strength in the background. Safe entry
3. Trigger bar 2 (I have marked on this trigger level)
4. Reaction...
I like this one!

Thank you very much pres78! How did you learn VSA? That a really great analysis!

Is there some doc or website explaining those trigger lines in more details?

Where can we find how many pips the market is usually moving per day?
  • #18,349
  • Apr 8, 2011 7:29am Apr 8, 2011 7:29am
Quoting dvarrin
I like thin one!

Thank you very much pres78!

Where can we find how many pips the market is usually moving per day?
If you use MT4 there are many range indicators. I recently uploaded one that shows daily, weekly and monthly ranges and where we currently stand with each. I use these religously on all my trades when determining targets.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,350
  • Apr 8, 2011 7:37am Apr 8, 2011 7:37am
Quoting pres78
If you use MT4 there are many range indicators. I recently uploaded one that shows daily, weekly and monthly ranges and where we currently stand with each. I use these religously on all my trades when determining targets.
How did you learn VSA? That's a really great analysis!

Is there some doc or website explaining those trigger lines in more details?
  • #18,351
  • Apr 8, 2011 7:42am Apr 8, 2011 7:42am
Quoting dvarrin
How did you learn VSA? That's a really great analysis!

Is there some doc or website explaining those trigger lines in more details?
I learned (and am still learning) VSA by reading Master the Markets (which you can get on this thread) and following along with this thread. As for triggers I was introduced to them by Malc and HiddenGap and have spent some time learning them and making a bit of my own way of trading using them.

Look back through some of the chart examples and many people on here are using triggers and they are the main thing I trade now for my intraday trades. Not always but for the most part SM will return to re-test areas of high volume / activity and it is these tests/ND/NS's at these previous high levels of volume that we wait for and trade. If a trigger is left un-tested then we have no trade...

Never chase a trade.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,352
  • Apr 8, 2011 7:45am Apr 8, 2011 7:45am
Squat 15 min right below trigger...
  • #18,353
  • Apr 8, 2011 7:52am Apr 8, 2011 7:52am
Quoting malcolmb14
so am out of all positions other than an oil long at the moment
Oil? Long? Hasn't the MACD turned down yet?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,354
  • Apr 8, 2011 7:52am Apr 8, 2011 7:52am
Quoting pres78
I learned (and am still learning) VSA by reading Master the Markets (which you can get on this thread) and following along with this thread. As for triggers I was introduced to them by Malc and HiddenGap and have spent some time learning them and making a bit of my own way of trading using them.

Look back through some of the chart examples and many people on here are using triggers and they are the main thing I trade now for my intraday trades. Not always but for the most part SM will return to re-test areas of high volume / activity and it is...
Thank you very much for your answer ;-) I'll check the beginning of the thread
  • #18,355
  • Apr 8, 2011 8:06am Apr 8, 2011 8:06am
Quoting dvarrin
Thank you very much for your answer ;-) I'll check the beginning of the thread
As an example, the bar that just closed on EU 5min is the highest volume of the day. We draw a line out from the close of this bar. If the price falls then comes back to the trigger line on a No Demand, this is a good shorting opp. If the price rises and comes back to test the trigger line. It's a good long opp.
  • #18,356
  • Apr 8, 2011 8:10am Apr 8, 2011 8:10am
Quoting KinsaleForex
As an example, the bar that just closed on EU 5min is the highest volume of the day. We draw a line out from the close of this bar. If the price falls then comes back to the trigger line on a No Demand, this is a good shorting opp. If the price rises and comes back to test the trigger line. It's a good long opp.
Thank you KinsaleForex :-) I like triggers already!!!

Should the bar be a high spread bar too? Or we look at the volume only?

I'll also try to draw the trigger lines on my future charts, so you guys can correct me if I'm wrong.
  • #18,357
  • Apr 8, 2011 8:38am Apr 8, 2011 8:38am
Quoting dvarrin
Thank you KinsaleForex :-) I like triggers already!!!

Should the bar be a high spread bar too? Or we look at the volume only?

I'll also try to draw the trigger lines on my future charts, so you guys can correct me if I'm wrong.
Volume is the main key for me on triggers as a high volume bar with almost no spread is a squat bar and a point on interest. On the other hand if we have a really wide spread and high volume these almost always get re-tested as the market does not like extremely wide spread bars... and well if we have huge spread and no volume this also tells us something odd is happening.

Volume vs. spread in all forms gives us signs into what SM is up to.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,358
  • Apr 8, 2011 8:42am Apr 8, 2011 8:42am
Well EU has hit 4440 high... weekly range just about cleaned up. Not sure what to expect from here on out today considering NY just opened and stocks not open yet. Still in one long from yesterday's high... SL move to BE+50.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,359
  • Apr 8, 2011 8:44am Apr 8, 2011 8:44am
Quoting pres78
Volume is the main key for me on triggers as a high volume bar with almost no spread is a squat bar and a point on interest. On the other hand if we have a really wide spread and high volume these almost always get re-tested as the market does not like extremely wide spread bars... and well if we have huge spread and no volume this also tells us something odd is happening.

Volume vs. spread in all forms gives us signs into what SM is up to.
Thanks a lot pres78! I've learnt a lot today ;-)
  • #18,360
  • Apr 8, 2011 9:04am Apr 8, 2011 9:04am
Quoting taomql4
Don't be fooled by GU Everyone , it wants to go Higher. I think we might test .6246 , But I say we Go higher ..at least .642 .
and walkin , this market doesn't owe me anything - For those in the Trade , It's an old top so chances are we range alittle ..
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