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vsa with Malcolm

  • #18,321
  • Apr 8, 2011 1:56am Apr 8, 2011 1:56am
Quoting Beljevina
This one will be spot on accurate IMO for relational volume; should be Citibank as liquidity provider, one of the biggest providers, with presumably a good mix of institutional volume, hence nice pronounced SO/upthrust volumes.

OK, off for some shut-eye; me thinks they're not celebrating good sterling data, yet at least - both were up against strong barriers. What a bust, having waited ...
Thank you very much Beljevina! Doesn't it looks a bit strange the pattern of the volume? If you check the bars with very low volumes, they are always occuring at regular intervals, and it is the same for bars with very great volume.
  • #18,322
  • Apr 8, 2011 2:01am Apr 8, 2011 2:01am
Quoting ewokuk
anyoe else notice the real low volume on eu today in this big up move? seems odd such low volume for 100+ pips straight up.

Volume is higher quite a lot than is would usually be for asian session though right?
  • #18,323
  • Apr 8, 2011 2:04am Apr 8, 2011 2:04am
Quoting dvarrin
Thank you very much Beljevina! Doesn't it looks a bit strange the pattern of the volume? If you check the bars with very low volumes, they are always occuring at regular intervals, and it is the same for bars with very great volume.
Yes and no ... I think you're referring to the troughs/yellow bars that occur every 24 bars/hours - that's pre-Asia or I believe 5pm-7pm NY time, the most illiquid time. The rest have quite unique and sensical meaning to me, based on candle prints and PA.
  • #18,324
  • Apr 8, 2011 2:05am Apr 8, 2011 2:05am
Quoting NaughtyPip
Volume is higher quite a lot than is would usually be for asian session though right?
Is this momentum from the asian session then? coupled with all the other shit going on with the US?
  • #18,325
  • Apr 8, 2011 2:36am Apr 8, 2011 2:36am
Didn't take this, but something I was watching with 1pipperhour on GU over the past half an hour, shorting opp for about 25 - 30 pips. Enter on the low of the upthrust or the ND. Personally speaking I think the spread on the ND is a little wide, but it doesn't make a higher high or a lower low so it is still valid.
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  • #18,326
  • Apr 8, 2011 2:46am Apr 8, 2011 2:46am
Quoting ewokuk
anyoe else notice the real low volume on eu today in this big up move? seems odd such low volume for 100+ pips straight up.
Volume seems relatively normal.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,327
  • Apr 8, 2011 2:53am Apr 8, 2011 2:53am
Quoting dvarrin
How can you have such a great volume chart on the daily timeframe?

Look at what I'm getting!!
This is proof that one can only trade what they see on their charts... unless one is using esignal or another volume feed that is more market wide representative then you need to learn to trust your brokers feed.

While my broker printed my daily as a test bar and Bellivena's and others have printed as a SO bar they both lead to the same conclusion higher highs... Could I have gotten burned trading off my daily volume especially when it obviously showed something different than others? Perhaps. But I have learned to read and trust my brokers volume and I know how to trade it.

Plus I did my end of day comparision and knew that while I saw a test bar some others saw a SO... either way I felt safe enough going long off the yesterday's high.

I am like many on here and I trade off the 5min and 15min charts but will occasisonaly pull a trade off the 1hr, 4hr or daily if I like what I see.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,328
  • Edited 3:30am Apr 8, 2011 3:19am | Edited 3:30am
Here is the kind of trade I could take. Long timeframe is bullish. There is an effort to rise followed, after a red bar, with 2 green bars with increasing volume. Then the price retraces to form a no supply bar. And the bar immediately after broke the top of the no supply bar. And you can notice the general increase in volume at the end of the trading range and during the breakout. I would go long on that bar. Is it right?

I added some comments on the chart.
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  • #18,329
  • Apr 8, 2011 3:20am Apr 8, 2011 3:20am
Quoting dvarrin
Here is the kind of trade I could take. Long timeframe is bullish. There is an effort to rise followed, after a red bar, with 2 green bars with increasing volume. Then the price retraces to form a no supply bar. And the bar immediately after broke the top of the no supply bar. I would go long on that bar. Is it right?
I think I know where you're talking about but you'll have to stick some arrows and labels on or something!
  • #18,330
  • Apr 8, 2011 3:36am Apr 8, 2011 3:36am
That looks alright to me, if you draw a line out from the close of the bar you have labelled effort to rise. You should see that the Ns / Test hits this line and rejects it. Good place to go long I think. The stop placement and TP is up to you. I tend to look for 1:1. Is this chart from today?
  • #18,331
  • Apr 8, 2011 3:41am Apr 8, 2011 3:41am
Hi Liam,
Where can I find more about triggers?

Best,
Ox
Quoting KinsaleForex
That looks alright to me, if you draw a line out from the close of the bar you have labelled effort to rise. You should see that the Ns / Test hits this line and rejects it. Good place to go long I think. The stop placement and TP is up to you. I tend to look for 1:1. Is this chart from today?
  • #18,332
  • Apr 8, 2011 3:48am Apr 8, 2011 3:48am
Quoting KinsaleForex
That looks alright to me, if you draw a line out from the close of the bar you have labelled effort to rise. You should see that the Ns / Test hits this line and rejects it. Good place to go long I think. The stop placement and TP is up to you. I tend to look for 1:1. Is this chart from today?
Yes, it is today's chart and an other losing trade for me!!!

I'M LOST!!!

After we see what happen we might say "I've to wait for the price to come back to the breakout level" or something like that, but often it is not doing that.
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  • #18,333
  • Apr 8, 2011 3:49am Apr 8, 2011 3:49am
Quoting Oxford
Hi Liam,
Where can I find more about triggers?

Best,
Ox
Best place would probably be this thread, read back over the last 50 - 100 or so pages and i'm sure you'll find plenty. Pres78, HiddenGap are posters to look out for in particular but there are a few people using triggers.

Here's a starting point for some links i've saved from the above posters;

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=17798
  • #18,334
  • Edited 4:01am Apr 8, 2011 3:52am | Edited 4:01am
Quoting dvarrin
Yes, it is today's chart and an other losing trade for me!!!

I'M LOST!!!
I looked at my charts after asking if it's today's chart. Admittedly it isn't the best set up now that I look at my own. But I will go on to say that your stop was probably too close. I can't see a great place to put it to be honest, but it probably would have been the low of the wide spread up bar with the ultra high volume.

Maybe someone else can shed some light.

Edit - I've annotated my chart for what i'm seeing. But it's not the clearest example by any means.
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  • #18,335
  • Apr 8, 2011 4:16am Apr 8, 2011 4:16am
Quoting dvarrin
Yes, it is today's chart and an other losing trade for me!!!

I'M LOST!!!

After we see what happen we might say "I've to wait for the price to come back to the breakout level" or something like that, but often it is not doing that.
Wrong place for entry imo.

Chart.
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  • #18,336
  • Apr 8, 2011 4:18am Apr 8, 2011 4:18am
Quoting KinsaleForex
I looked at my charts after asking if it's today's chart. Admittedly it isn't the best set up now that I look at my own. But I will go on to say that your stop was probably too close. I can't see a great place to put it to be honest, but it probably would have been the low of the wide spread up bar with the ultra high volume.

Maybe someone else can shed some light.

Edit - I've annotated my chart for what i'm seeing. But it's not the clearest example by any means.
But why is it not a great setup? If you don't see what happened afterwards it looks like a really good setup (rising volume in the trading range and on the breakout, price making higher highs on higher volume after the breakout, test bar with 2 up bars following and increasing volume, following the direction of higher timeframes).


Really what makes a good setup then?
  • #18,337
  • Apr 8, 2011 4:26am Apr 8, 2011 4:26am
Quoting 1pipperhour
Wrong place for entry imo.

Chart.
How do you draw the trigger lines? If you don't know what happened after my entry, what would make it a bad entry?

After seeing what happened later I also understand that it was a bad entry, but doing so VSA would be only a tool to explain the past.

What makes my entry a bad entry at the time of the entry? Also on my chart, the second green bar after my entry is an up bar with higher volume and I was quite surprised to see that big red bar coming right after!!!
  • #18,338
  • Apr 8, 2011 4:27am Apr 8, 2011 4:27am
Hi dvarrin

I didn't mean you should check the last 6 months of trading, but just wanted to say that if you want to learn this you have to analyse previous market behaviour.
Malcolm said that 5 min for forex isn't enough, but for me personally eur is so volatile that in most cases you miss the move if you wait for tests, etc. after quick reactions on 15 min chart. To me 15 min is good for entering after there is evident accumulation or distribution taking place over couple of hours. Otherwise 5 min + 60 min suits me the most.
The trade you took seems very risky. I mean, you see that the market can't hold the lows of previous bars, so you would have to be really lucky for the market to turn your way after entering long. You would have to use wide SL to reach below previous market bottom. You have to be more patient and wait for the market to develop for the next upmove, to show you that it can hold previous lows.


Quoting dvarrin
Here is the kind of trade I could take. Long timeframe is bullish. There is an effort to rise followed, after a red bar, with 2 green bars with increasing volume. Then the price retraces to form a no supply bar. And the bar immediately after broke the top of the no supply bar. And you can notice the general increase in volume at the end of the trading range and during the breakout. I would go long on that bar. Is it right?

I added some comments on the chart.
  • #18,339
  • Apr 8, 2011 4:27am Apr 8, 2011 4:27am
Quoting dvarrin
But why is it not a great setup? If you don't see what happend afterwards it looks like a really good setup (rising volume in the trading range and on the breakout, price making higher highs on higher volume after the breakout, test bar with 2 up bars following, following the direction of higher timeframes).


Really what makes a good setup then?
I'm saying it's not great based on the triggers i use, once I have a trigger In i like to see a clear movement away from that area and for it to come back and test or on a no demand. Looking at my chart, from where I have the trigger to where it tests isn't really a clear conviction in any direction. Which is why it just trundles sideways for a while. Look back through some posts on 5min and triggers and you'll find some good examples. Look at my reply to Ox a few posts back for some good posts on triggers.

As a starter, trigger lines are drawn from the close of a high volume up or down bar. We then look for the market to react to this area in the future. As I said, i like a clear movement away from the trigger in either direction and then come back to test or on a no demand.

Hope this helps.
  • #18,340
  • Apr 8, 2011 4:33am Apr 8, 2011 4:33am
Quoting dvarrin
But why is it not a great setup? If you don't see what happend afterwards it looks like a really good setup (rising volume in the trading range and on the breakout, price making higher highs on higher volume after the breakout, test bar with 2 up bars following, following the direction of higher timeframes).


Really what makes a good setup then?
Today was a bad day to look for long entries on the EUR pairs as when that NS printed EURJPY had already moved up 160 pips on the day which is above the ADR making any long without some kind of good retrace potentially risky.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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