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  • #10,361
  • Apr 4, 2011 8:49am Apr 4, 2011 8:49am
Quoting dddd
Makes sense, ....BASED on your logic, i guess...
yes, gold and silver are still good candidates. Investors are still not very sure about the future direction of europe (sovereign debts) and USA (huge deficit & extreme printing of money).
So that's why everybody is going in on the commodities. In the near time I don't see a real recovery happen any time soon. And if europe or USA gets really bad news, then that is a boost for gold again, cause investors are then seeking safe havens, when they can't go in on stocks.

I actually really enjoy now doing some fundamental analysis, don't know why before I was always avoiding it, maybe cause fundamental analysis is so much more difficult than a technical analysis.

cheers

by the way, if you wanna get an understanding of fundamentals then read everything you can on central banks and fiscal policies. Cause they & catastrophic events shape the business cycles.
  • #10,362
  • Apr 5, 2011 5:18am Apr 5, 2011 5:18am
Quoting kill56
hi all

guys i need help at the grave yard
any interesting indicator plz post it @ the grave yard
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=246111
i find this free paltalk room very interesting and profitable
under day trading 2stocks daily.
  • #10,363
  • Apr 6, 2011 1:19pm Apr 6, 2011 1:19pm
Hi Custos and dddd,

What a great conversation you have going there!

I thought I might join with my take if you don't mind.

I come from a Fundamental Analysis background. I have been successful generating profits using only fundamental analysis over the past years. Using this approach I traded the Euro up to 1.6000 during the crisis then back down again, and up again... I also made some money initially shorting the Yen back in the first quarter of of 2010.

However this approach has also caused me to sit on some large draw downs for months on end :-). I am not talking 1-2 months but 6-9 moths+ at times. This is not to say I didn't make money in other trades but there were some that caused me a little pain during he journey.

So what am I saying? Well I guess just reinforcing the idea that Technicals and Fundamentals make a great team. Initially my entries and exits were purely Fundamental based but then I moved to incorporating Technical Entries and Exits with a Fundamental bias and my trading has improved 100 times over.

So I have my fundamental bias and I may dip a toe in with a small position to support my bias, but I will then only add to my positions when the technicals start to support my fundamental view.

I think the secret in the market is to be flexible, to understand that the market can do the unexpected at any given time and to embrace this fact. Then to trade according to a plan and stick strictly to this plan. Never get into a trade without knowing why you are getting in and were your stop is going to be. Notice I didn't mention profit target... the reason for this is that we never know, the market could shoot 1000 pips without looking back, and we would want to be on that ride. So we cannot define a profit target (in my humble opinion), we can only identify our entry points and the point where the markets are telling us we are wrong, the rest is up to the price action.

I never try to predict the direction... I have my fundamental bias of course but I only truly enter a trade once the technicals have told me to do so... I am a reactive traded if you will, and I have found this to be the best approach for me.

Anyway that is my take on the subject, I look forward to your comments or thoughts... I am not saying what I am doing is the only way... just saying it works for me...
  • #10,364
  • Apr 6, 2011 2:02pm Apr 6, 2011 2:02pm
Quoting Micardo
Hi Custos and dddd,

What a great conversation you have going there!

I thought I might join with my take if you don't mind.

I come from a Fundamental Analysis background. I have been successful generating profits using only fundamental analysis over the past years. Using this approach I traded the Euro up to 1.6000 during the crisis then back down again, and up again... I also made some money initially shorting the Yen back in the first quarter of of 2010.

However this approach has also caused me to sit on some large draw downs for months on...
well, in terms of profit target, I think you are partially correct. When should we consider entries? When you got fundamental reasons for it. What if these fundamental reasons change? You wouldn't want to enter anymore. You would also not want to keep your position anymore. So I would say, a profit target is reached, once fundamentals change.

having said that, technicals, or in my case statistics have to be incorporated with fundamentals, to get favorable risk reward ratios.
  • #10,365
  • Apr 6, 2011 2:17pm Apr 6, 2011 2:17pm
Hi Custos,

Yes I agree, that is what I wanted to get across but obviously wasn't successful :-).

You profit target is reached once fundamentals change or technical reversal occurs. But ultimately you do not know when that will be when you are getting into the trade. So I was trying to say that the only two things you know before you get into a trade is where you want to enter and where you want to exit if you are wrong. Where you exit if you are right or for a profit rather is determined by the fundamentals and the price action (for me anyway)

But I agree you should always be looking for a favorable risk reward ratio and statistical edge else you are trading a loser in the long run in any case...
  • #10,366
  • Apr 7, 2011 2:22pm Apr 7, 2011 2:22pm
Hello everyone,

I have been a long time stalker of this thread an decided i should finally post something.

A little about my trading style, I have done both of hectors courses an was one of jacko's followers for about a year.
I try and find long term horizontal levels to trade off and look for "elements of confluence" to support those levels.

This is a trade i have just taken on eurcad let me know your thoughts.

Fundamentally it seems like the canadians have no plans to raise interest rates any time soon but the euros (with all their troubles) have left the door open for more raises (who knows how much of that is already priced in) so there is the chance the eur will keep going up.

On the weekly chart I see the 1.37 area on the EURCAD as a level that has previously worked as resistance and now is being tested as support, On the daily to support this level I see a up trendline a 50% fib retracement and a pin bar.
My targets are: 1st tp @ 1.3945 just below previous high and 2nd tp @ 1.4294 which is just below the next weekly High. My stop is 1.3645

see attached charts.

Cheers
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad weekly april 7th.gif Size: 39 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad daily april 7th.gif Size: 39 KB
  • #10,367
  • Apr 7, 2011 5:26pm Apr 7, 2011 5:26pm
Quoting Custos
yep, but since previously I wanted to trade short-term, I shied away from using fundamentals.


yes, the problem with his approach is that you never know when to put on your trade or when there is a change in trend, or continuation. Technicals are just always the RESULT of price action, not the cause of it.
It really doesn't make sense to try to put on trades on the 5 min chart each day and then see one after the other fall apart.
We should also not forget why we went to the trading arena in the first place. Cause we want to make money and have...
Technicals are NOT the result of price action, they are the result of market sentiment, read them properly and you can see what the market makers are doing.

If fundamentals are so good,using AUD as an example please explain the recent huge D1 swings. A good technical trader will walk rings round a fundi trader over and over.

M5 trend trades will work just as well as daily trends, they only fall apart if you don't know what you are doing.
  • #10,368
  • Apr 8, 2011 12:43am Apr 8, 2011 12:43am
Quoting kiaora
Hello everyone,

I have been a long time stalker of this thread an decided i should finally post something.

A little about my trading style, I have done both of hectors courses an was one of jacko's followers for about a year.
I try and find long term horizontal levels to trade off and look for "elements of confluence" to support those levels.

This is a trade i have just taken on eurcad let me know your thoughts.

Fundamentally it seems like the canadians have no plans to raise interest rates any time soon but the euros (with all their troubles)...
I'm interested in this Jacko guy, he seems to be a scam guy, but in your opinion, do you think his method is any good or not?
  • #10,369
  • Apr 8, 2011 12:56am Apr 8, 2011 12:56am
Quoting jag1966
Technicals are NOT the result of price action, they are the result of market sentiment, read them properly and you can see what the market makers are doing.

If fundamentals are so good,using AUD as an example please explain the recent huge D1 swings. A good technical trader will walk rings round a fundi trader over and over.

M5 trend trades will work just as well as daily trends, they only fall apart if you don't know what you are doing.
I just think, if you have a good fundamental reason on your side and have some technicals on your side as well, then the odds are higher that you gonna get profitable trades.

I actually wrote my analysis of aud here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=10360.
The carry trade is also definitely a consideration for now. So, there you got some fundamental odds on your side + the fundamentals for jpy. Now combining them with some technicals, and you got more odds on your side than using technicals alone.

You are totally right that 5 min trades won't just fall apart when trend trading. If you look at my post you responded to, you will see that I was commenting on pipeasy's method, which is to get in on 5 min charts every day and ride trades for thousands of pips. In that case probably around 90% of trades will be either a loss or closed at b/e.
But if you have a more suitable target, then of course 5 min trades will also become more profitable.

I am actually working now on statistics of fundamental events, to see which patterns are recurring. Not a 10,000 times though, cause we don't have that many occurences .

cheers
  • #10,370
  • Apr 8, 2011 1:02am Apr 8, 2011 1:02am
Quoting kiaora
Hello everyone,

I have been a long time stalker of this thread an decided i should finally post something.

A little about my trading style, I have done both of hectors courses an was one of jacko's followers for about a year.
I try and find long term horizontal levels to trade off and look for "elements of confluence" to support those levels.

This is a trade i have just taken on eurcad let me know your thoughts.

Fundamentally it seems like the canadians have no plans to raise interest rates any time soon but the euros (with all their troubles)...
Sounds like some good reasoning. It definitely has a good chance. Just be a little bit wary concerning the events happening in the middle east. It might make oil rise again and normally there is a correlation between rising oil and rising cad.
Other than that, sounds like a reasonable trade idea to me.
  • #10,371
  • Apr 8, 2011 5:34am Apr 8, 2011 5:34am
Quoting Sesshaumaru
I'm interested in this Jacko guy, he seems to be a scam guy, but in your opinion, do you think his method is any good or not?
He is no longer running his blog as far as i know. I felt like I got my moneys worth from reading his thoughts pre taking trades and being able to email him and ask questions.
His system worked for him an i saw him make money in 3 quarters out of 4 that i followed. His trading rules were very simple but he was a discretionary trader- good at knowing when to not to follow his rules. I think he did make a bunch of money while the eurusd was going up but only made small amounts after that trend broke down. When i took trades based only on his system without him I always felt like I was trying to catch a falling knife and did not have much success, now i look for more confirmation before entering.

Hope that answers your question.
  • #10,372
  • Apr 8, 2011 5:44am Apr 8, 2011 5:44am
Quoting kiaora
Hello everyone,

I have been a long time stalker of this thread an decided i should finally post something.

A little about my trading style, I have done both of hectors courses an was one of jacko's followers for about a year.
I try and find long term horizontal levels to trade off and look for "elements of confluence" to support those levels.

This is a trade i have just taken on eurcad let me know your thoughts.

Fundamentally it seems like the canadians have no plans to raise interest rates any time soon but the euros (with all their...
Trade update

Price is at 1.3765 which is the top of the h4 range we have going on at the moment, there is also news in 20 mins so i have moved stop to B/E plus 2 pips (a tiny win is better for the head than $0) incase the range holds or the news turns this around.
  • #10,373
  • Apr 12, 2011 11:45am Apr 12, 2011 11:45am
Quoting kiaora
Hello everyone,

I have been a long time stalker of this thread an decided i should finally post something.

A little about my trading style, I have done both of hectors courses an was one of jacko's followers for about a year.
I try and find long term horizontal levels to trade off and look for "elements of confluence" to support those levels.

This is a trade i have just taken on eurcad let me know your thoughts.

Fundamentally it seems like the canadians have no plans to raise interest rates any time soon but the euros (with all their...
Trade update: Closed all positions at my T/P #1 1.3945 as I am not going to be able to watch the charts in the next few days.
  • #10,374
  • Apr 14, 2011 12:12am Apr 14, 2011 12:12am
Hello trend followers, I have a bit of kiwi I want to sell while the currency is rather strong.. anyone got any good long term reads on any kiwi based pairs??
  • #10,375
  • Apr 15, 2011 1:19pm Apr 15, 2011 1:19pm
Quoting kiaora
Trade update: Closed all positions at my T/P #1 1.3945 as I am not going to be able to watch the charts in the next few days.

Nicely done.
  • #10,376
  • Apr 15, 2011 1:28pm Apr 15, 2011 1:28pm
Quoting Custos
yes, gold and silver are still good candidates. Investors are still not very sure about the future direction of europe (sovereign debts) and USA (huge deficit & extreme printing of money).
So that's why everybody is going in on the commodities. In the near time I don't see a real recovery happen any time soon. And if europe or USA gets really bad news, then that is a boost for gold again, cause investors are then seeking safe havens, when they can't go in on stocks.

I actually really enjoy now doing some fundamental analysis, don't know why before...

my XAU/JPY and XAG/JPY reaches new heights today after momentarily pulling back. I wish the pull back was deeper to allow for a hector like entry trade. oh well.
  • #10,377
  • Apr 15, 2011 1:30pm Apr 15, 2011 1:30pm
Quoting Mortician.
2nd part of the USD/SGD trade up by + 100 pips.

USD/SGD Trade first alerted here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...70&postcount=8

SOLD 1st part here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...8&postcount=11

CURRENT CHART OF USD/SGD below.



http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...22#post3900322

YOUR usd/sgd is currently in oblivion. Dropping like heavy lead. Wish i was in that trade. Greatest short ever
  • #10,378
  • Apr 27, 2011 6:58am Apr 27, 2011 6:58am
hi every body
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  • #10,379
  • Apr 27, 2011 9:55am Apr 27, 2011 9:55am
For the 1h actually is to high, looks good for the 4H. The Federal Funds Rate could give the necessary weight to go down.


Quoting persian_cats
hi every body
Attachment
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  • #10,380
  • Apr 27, 2011 4:19pm Apr 27, 2011 4:19pm
Took the trade,
entry 0.8762
sl 0.8792
tp 0.8706

half position at 0.8735 and sl 0.8765, any thing happen this is a winner trade.

Regards




Quoting persian_cats
hi every body
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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