NZD/USD

I'm still long on NZDUSD @ 20lots at 0.7700 SL- 0.7599 TP - 0.7750
Before Euro open tommorrow there r a bunch on NZD news. I do not know if price will move in my favour or against me... so i wish all kiwi traders good luck and i hope it move in my favour

That bitch trade had me sleepless at night. Its been on since 24hours. I just closed it accepting a 1.6k loss to get some weight off my back

Sell order at 0.7710 at downward trendline, would love to see a correction at least.
anyone expecting for a drop?

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-PhgQgKwEs6.../nzdusd_d7.png
Regards

Yup expecting a drop......eqc claims are non existent....and nzd flow from outside the country is becoming dry. Bounced off the trendline at .7720.

As you may notice, this is my first post, but I have lurked these forums for a while now. I felt compelled to contribute because I have a long open for the pair with the trend, but continue to see all these bearish comments. I see very well thought-out, well explained charts here that say that it's time to call the top. And you may be right, but who am I to call the top on this dramatic move, no? I got in right after the Sunday opening at .769ish and am aiming for 0.77777, stop at .75757. I previously traded up .745ish and never believed it myself, but the fact is that it's been bullish thus far for 13 trading days.

Including this time of writing, I had 3 chances to get out at break-even, having barely seen the trade in-the-money until now.

However, I am chosing to stay since we had a Higher High yesterday, a fresh HH today, therefore no break in the trend as of yet. The last 3 times it reached this price level, it continued to at least .778ish (Jan. 19).

I am going to revisit this at 21:00h (9pm) EST, and hopefully can mark a break-even stop. We have no more NZD news lined up for the rest of the week, so I am anticipating a continuous and smooth coasting right up to my target area.

I am trading real money, albeit little (3 mini lots for this trade), so this is a ~$450 decision on the downside, or $210+ decision on the upside. So, if someone has a compelling case why I am senselessly risking my money, I am all ears.

I think your risking too much for reward? I believe you 2:1 R/R which is crazy...because if you are risking to lose more then you win...then you have a higher chance of losing money if you hit a losing streak. YOu need to adjust your R/R...just my opinion. Also....you may be right and the nZD may go higher...But I will give to .7740...maybe. BUt the fact that we crossed the .77 line and hit the uptrend at .7720 semms to me that options were bound for this level at .77 and were hit. SO...chance of going beyond the UPPER trend line into .78 doesnt seem realistic. If you take a closer look you will see that the NZD/USD is ranging on the daily....trending on the 4h. If one was to analyze this they may take into consideration that we are in the upper part of the range, bouncing off the trendline. Lookd at aud/usd...it bounced off the trend line and dropped almost 100 pips. Also the EQC claims are drying up and so the devestation on the NZD economy will start to show its ugly face! there is 3 major cities in NZD, and christchurch is one of them, and the earthquake wiped it out....so potentially your looking at 1/3 of the economy in repair..maybe 1/4 realistically. Just my opinion. Also look for a rate cut in the future.

Looks like a pretty nice spot for a reversal of trend to me...trend lines dating from as far back as March 2008, and March 2009. A near perfect cross of the trend lines from 2008 and 2009 and the daily is looking like it will close as a perfect pin bar...tomorrow's daily close will tell the story for the days to come IMHO... and ironically March 2011 just ended...

http://i52.tinypic.com/2ryjzar.gif

Also......china rate hike rumor!...so this will have a minor effect and add to the bearish case if true.

You might be right on a pull back but look at a weekly chart,we could pull all the way back to .7500 or even .7450 and still be in a play for .8000,after such a strong run up it's a bit tricky to play at the moment,it looks like it needs at least a breather, but bids could show up at .7600.
Hard to say.

Here have a look at this and see what you think.
On the weekly we could come back to green lines easy.
Then look at the monthly,we're only half way up a bloody
great big inside bar.
Monthly looks bullish if you ask me.
Target .8200.
Just a thought.

regarding 2:1 stop loss, it's not acceptable, agreed. I typically end up moving stops to break even, and letting winners run longer. Or I end up taking a quicker loss. Stop loss is for fast moving markets when I am away from the computer.

If we don't find support at .765, I will probably take 33% or 66% off the table (this trade is split into 3 separate single mini lot positions).

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...inflation.html

Is this the one that you meant on your post?

Not in small part due to the feedback and the case for the impending bear, I just took two thirds of my trade off the table at break-even here at 9:30pm.

This means that almost without doubt now, it will go up to .777ish, since I am no longer in the market except for marginal profits.

Posting here lends a new psychology to my trading I am not sure I am ready for. I will probably go back to trading in silence. Thanks everyone for the analysis though.

Can hear a popping sound of all the shorts getting sqeezed.
What can i say,thinly traded pairs can really go crazy sometimes.
I was flat but well done anyone who rode this up.

Yup I got squeeeeeezed out. Backtesting shows that a 17 day run up without pulling back 150 to 200 pips is non existent....except for march 2009. This is pretty strong and the momentum is huge! not jumping in and I am flat as well. As M.C hammer once said..."Can't touch this"

I correct myself.....I am going to go long now....what the hell...might make a few pips!

So I made the 0.77777 target, with only 1/3 of the trade in play. I didn't have the confidence to stick it out. I only have myself to blame, but it's interesting how easily my opinion was swayed away from what I had identified as a great setup (Sunday gap up, weekly, daily, hourly trend up, repeat of Jan 19 run, buying at top of no wick candle).

its just the way it goes....but I hope you adjust your stop loss! because you may have gotten lucky...but over the long run...you will lose.

Gotta jump on the kiwi some more...to catch up with the aussie!!