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  • #21
  • Mar 7, 2011 3:26pm Mar 7, 2011 3:26pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Edit Closed the euro at the break of jan high @ 13845 for about -225 pips

Bought euro @ 13895
And stops to BE on the euro long.. My long waited reversal could be happening.

I mean if this doesn't signal a temporary bottom in the USD, nothing will...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41950900
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #22
  • Mar 9, 2011 8:12am Mar 9, 2011 8:12am
Quoting TexasforEX
Kiwi's tumble today along with a nice looking daily doji and 4HR BEOB for cable are keeping me in my shorts.

I even added a position at 16260. All in all I've got five lots short cable and about three more in kiwi. This is getting interesting.....
Let's see here..stopped at BE on euro long.

And cable, lovely cable. Price being rejected at 16240 is very good for the bears. This down leg, which started at 16340 is still strong and has the potential to break 16070 and then 16030, which would validate the beginning of a full blown reversal.

God knows I've been waiting long enough for it, lol.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #23
  • Mar 9, 2011 3:26pm Mar 9, 2011 3:26pm
Aud/nzd looks ripe for a fall in the not to distant future. Price bounced off long term TL with big bearish divergence.

short @ 13700
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #24
  • Mar 14, 2011 4:15pm Mar 14, 2011 4:15pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Kiwi's tumble today along with a nice looking daily doji and 4HR BEOB for cable are keeping me in my shorts.

I even added a position at 16260. All in all I've got five lots short cable and about three more in kiwi. This is getting interesting.....
Today was NOT a good day for cable shorts.

Price did not respect the levels I was counting on. I closed out all five shorts today at 16170. I made enough to pay a nightly bar tab,

I'll consider re establishing long term shorts if I see a certain type of convincing PA below 1.61.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #25
  • Mar 16, 2011 10:08pm Mar 16, 2011 10:08pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Big day for my kiwi and cable shorts. It's about time. I'm not really surprised that the euro is stubbornly showing strength. The euro crosses are set up bullish.

I am starting to think that the euro won't get below it's January low.
As always hindsight is 20/20 and now I can see how the euro looks to have made it's low in January and has now broken higher. Retracements are being bought up heavily.

January's high at 13750 is looking to be the floor now on the euro. Earlier yesterday I've bought 5 lots on the dip. I'll stop it below the aforementioned 13750. This trade has the potential to be a LONG one, but I'll try not to get ahead of myself.

I'll start to feel alot more confident if price gets above monthly TL and prior swing high at 14280. I will add some more longs if and when that happens.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #26
  • Mar 18, 2011 10:16am Mar 18, 2011 10:16am
Quoting TexasforEX
As always hindsight is 20/20 and now I can see how the euro looks to have made it's low in January and has now broken higher....
Took all 5 lots off the table at 14140 for some good profits, I'm very pleased. I will be looking to re establish longs around 1.40 next week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro.gif Size: 17 KB
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #27
  • Edited 3:44pm Mar 23, 2011 3:31pm | Edited 3:44pm
Kiwi is coming into focus now with GDP announced. I've accumulated three longs today @ 7392, 7398 & 7408...

If GDP comes in showing red than price has potential to see a move down to 7340/50..If it holds there I'd look to add more longs. I'd prefer to not even have to worry about that and have a big # and have price blow right above 7450..

Let's see.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #28
  • Mar 23, 2011 5:09pm Mar 23, 2011 5:09pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Took all 5 lots off the table at 14140 for some good profits, I'm very pleased. I will be looking to re establish longs around 1.40 next week.
Euro may have found a bottom at the 1 HR 200 ema. I've re-entered long again with 5 lots @ 1.4085
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #29
  • Mar 24, 2011 10:48am Mar 24, 2011 10:48am
Quoting TexasforEX
Kiwi is coming into focus now with GDP announced. I've accumulated three longs today @ 7392, 7398 & 7408...

If GDP comes in showing red than price has potential to see a move down to 7340/50..If it holds there I'd look to add more longs. I'd prefer to not even have to worry about that and have a big # and have price blow right above 7450..

Let's see.
Time to take some profits.....

Kiwi, I'll take full profits @ 7515. 3 lots closed for over 300 pips

Euro, I'll take partial proftis @ 14194. 2.5 lots closed for over 250 pips

Great couple of weeks going here.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #30
  • Mar 24, 2011 12:33pm Mar 24, 2011 12:33pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Time to take some profits.....

Kiwi, I'll take full profits @ 7515. 3 lots closed for over 300 pips

Euro, I'll take partial proftis @ 14194. 2.5 lots closed for over 250 pips

Great couple of weeks going here.
Surprise, Surprise. Daily bar has engulfed and looks primed for a continuation tomorrow. I bought back 2.5 lots @ 1.4170. Stops below 14050..
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #31
  • Mar 27, 2011 6:16pm Mar 27, 2011 6:16pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Surprise, Surprise. Daily bar has engulfed and looks primed for a continuation tomorrow. I bought back 2.5 lots @ 1.4170. Stops below 14050..
Engulfing bars haven't meant shite lately. The only thing they seem to be good for since volume has expanded is a stop run.

Stopped @ 14045 on 2.5 lots for -125pips

Bought 2.5 lots @ 14025

Total 5 lots long euro (avg 1.4055), no stops for now...
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #32
  • Mar 29, 2011 4:16am Mar 29, 2011 4:16am
Quoting TexasforEX
Engulfing bars haven't meant shite lately. The only thing they seem to be good for since volume has expanded is a stop run.

Stopped @ 14045 on 2.5 lots for -125pips

Bought 2.5 lots @ 14025

Total 5 lots long euro (avg 1.4055), no stops for now...
Took half (2.5) off @ 1.4128 for +73

I just have a feeling there could be another leg lower to 1.4000; take out some stops below the weekly low and reverse higher again. We'll see
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #33
  • Mar 30, 2011 2:20am Mar 30, 2011 2:20am
Finally got that long signal for cable. 3 lots in at 16040...

Added .5 lots to euro @ 14078...

total longs 3 euro & 3 cable and the aud/nzd is still grinding lower from 1.3700
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #34
  • Edited 4:49pm Apr 3, 2011 7:51am | Edited 4:49pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Finally got that long signal for cable. 3 lots in at 16040...

Added .5 lots to euro @ 14078...

total longs 3 euro & 3 cable and the aud/nzd is still grinding lower from 1.3700
Nothing changed in my positions here. I was starting to sweat after the employment numbers but my charts were hinting at the reversal and therefore held strong.

NFP has a high propensity to either be the end of a move or the beginning of a new move. Obviously, I'm leaning towards a new leg of USD weakness but in reality, Friday's price action does have a chance of being the end of USD weakness for a while.

My euro position avg around 14050 is great. 1.4050 was the 50% fib level of the 1.3868 - 1.4247 move, which has provided support 4 times prior to Friday's massive bounce. That will be the initial level that would need to break before I'd entertain any serious reversal thoughts and I would stop my euro long position just below 1.40 around 1.3995.

This is one area where I differ from other traders. I'm not hung up on moving my stop to BE as soon as I see some profit. I move my stops where the charts tell me, not where my entries are. The fact that I trade longer term, and hence have more confidence in my levels, is a big reason for that.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #35
  • Apr 5, 2011 11:20am Apr 5, 2011 11:20am
Great day for my cable longs from 16040. I'm sure I'll take some profits before the rate announcements. Cable will probably be still below last month's high (1.6400) when that happens..

It's worth noting that euro/gbp has broken out of it's channel. It's because of this that I think cable will outperform euro for the near term..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: europound.gif Size: 17 KB
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #36
  • Apr 5, 2011 3:22pm Apr 5, 2011 3:22pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Finally got that long signal for cable. 3 lots in at 16040...

Added .5 lots to euro @ 14078...

total longs 3 euro & 3 cable and the aud/nzd is still grinding lower from 1.3700
Yeah, I was holding the euro longs because I thought the FOMC minutes might be a real market mover but 14280 held.

I'm taking full profits on my euro longs here @ 1.4220. 3 lots for about 450 pips total.

I thought maybe price might break 14280 before the ECB announcement and this week could of turned into a buy the rumor, sell the fact set up. At this point, I really question whether 14280 breaks before the announcement.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #37
  • Apr 5, 2011 11:24pm Apr 5, 2011 11:24pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Finally got that long signal for cable. 3 lots in at 16040...

Added .5 lots to euro @ 14078...

total longs 3 euro & 3 cable and the aud/nzd is still grinding lower from 1.3700

I'll take profit on 2 lots of cable for almost 600 pips. I'll hold the last lot until LO, looking for one last pop towards 1.6370 to close.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #38
  • Apr 6, 2011 2:44am Apr 6, 2011 2:44am
And there's your LO pop

Nice work.
  • #39
  • Apr 6, 2011 10:26pm Apr 6, 2011 10:26pm
Quoting sam0182
And there's your LO pop

Nice work.
Thanks Sam. Welcome to the thread, it's nice to meet you.


Quoting TexasforEX
Aud/nzd looks ripe for a fall in the not to distant future. Price bounced off long term TL with big bearish divergence.

short @ 13700

I'm out of this trade @ 1.3470 for +230 pips. It only took a month, .

But, that's how certain trades play out.


I'm all flat going into rate announcements tomorrow morning.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #40
  • Apr 7, 2011 6:20pm Apr 7, 2011 6:20pm
I like the euro/gbp here @ 8761 for a short. Stops will be over .8800

Price broke out of it's steep upward channel and has gone back for a retest.

Currently completing a five legged continuation wedge before breaking lower or so I think.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
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