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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #1,601
  • Apr 5, 2011 2:01pm Apr 5, 2011 2:01pm
Quoting medici
Thanks for clarification. I too am "work in progress" and I hope to continue to be.

I take your statements to be based on readings about the commodity futures markets. My experience is that the fx market is a different animal, and that the difference is to the retail participant's advantage.

Maybe you want to read up on specific fx market structure literature? The papers by Carol Osler and books by Rich Lyons and Agustin Silvani recommended.

I agree totally, 2 totally different animals! And to the retail participants advantage. I feel (no first hand info) that even though 2 different animals, from a business point of view, the "Need" to "Do Business" would be somewhat the same. And this is just an opinion. Thank You! I appreciate the resourses, I will read anything I can get my hands on! I am in need to educate myself more with market structure. Your input is much apreciated!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,602
  • Apr 5, 2011 2:11pm Apr 5, 2011 2:11pm
Quoting medici
Haven't read that one. May have a peak at it if you think it's worth it.

Ive got it in pdf. Let me see if I can find it. Im not sure Id pay the $99. Some might call it a rehash- but I think I pulled a few things of value out of it.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,603
  • Apr 5, 2011 2:12pm Apr 5, 2011 2:12pm
Quoting mzvega
Ive got it in pdf. Let me see if I can find it. Im not sure Id pay the $99. Some might call it a rehash- but I think I pulled a few things of value out of it.
I've got in in pdf too...no wonder the biggest book retailer in the UK is about to fall off the cliff...
  • #1,604
  • Apr 5, 2011 2:15pm Apr 5, 2011 2:15pm
Quoting medici
I've got in in pdf too...no wonder the biggest book retailer in the UK is about to fall off the cliff...
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,605
  • Apr 5, 2011 2:17pm Apr 5, 2011 2:17pm
Quoting medici
I've got in in pdf too...no wonder the biggest book retailer in the UK is about to fall off the cliff...
but just think of all those trees saved - must be a green lining to that cloud http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,606
  • Apr 5, 2011 3:03pm Apr 5, 2011 3:03pm
Quoting mzvega
..The basic concept is to trade with the big money (Commercials) and look to exit when a market loses Commercial support.

The Commercial Traders "way" of being:



• "He is a responsive trader 90% of the time. He is attracted by extreme prices;


• Extreme or long-term price areas are attractive because he has an economic use for the product or stock. ..

First off, you rock. Excellent.


I know you don't use Volume Spread Analysis, but those that do would add the Smart Money (aka Strong Holders) in this camp:

  1. The Smart Money would be responsive 90% of the time and be attracted to extreme prices-it is their actions that create tops and bottoms.

  1. Extreme or long-term price areas would be attractive because he has the ability to stay solvent longer than the retail trader and he understands the psychology of the retail trader at extremes.

Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #1,607
  • Apr 5, 2011 4:12pm Apr 5, 2011 4:12pm
Quoting HiddenGap


I know you don't use Volume Spread Analysis, but those that do would add the Smart Money (aka Strong Holders) in this camp:.......

Thank You! I appreciate the comment. Im very familiar with your posts. You hurt my feelings when you assume I don’t use VSA. I have been a long time lurker and I have followed both VSA threads from day one. Ive read MTM, etc….. It was the VSA thread that caused my further research into volume., and learning MP. I still use VSA as a way to time my entries. After that I tend to get too intimate with all 288 bars on the chart, and after awhile I cant see the forest for the trees. Its not VSA, its my attention span. But I use VSA , SM concepts everyday, I don’t think I could trade adequately without it. Any volume indicators & tools I use, I found in the VSA thread.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,608
  • Apr 5, 2011 5:04pm Apr 5, 2011 5:04pm
Quoting tgwhbb
didn't realize Obama was talking today...in any case, I was looking for a long at the VAH but missed it. looks like initiative buying at 1.42 (VAH), will they absorb the sellers at the top? i took a small long at 4230, let's see what happens, but 15M chart looking bullish to me...
while not the smartest of entries at 4230 given the time of day etc, there are still signs of initiative buying at today's developing VAH. still in that small long position and being patient with it as EU is currently caught in between 2 POCs - Friday's and Monday's. While today has lower value and lower POC than yesterday, there has not yet been a non-trend day type t o signal a possible trend change, so my bias is still up.
Change is the only constant
  • #1,609
  • Apr 5, 2011 5:11pm Apr 5, 2011 5:11pm
Quoting tgwhbb
while not the smartest of entries at 4230 given the time of day etc, there are still signs of initiative buying at today's developing VAH. still in that small long position and being patient with it as EU is currently caught in between 2 POCs - Friday's and Monday's. While today has lower value and lower POC than yesterday, there has not yet been a non-trend day type t o signal a possible trend change, so my bias is still up.

while not the smartest of entries my short @ 1.4220..........
You must be that stubborn person on the othe side of my trade
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,610
  • Apr 5, 2011 5:17pm Apr 5, 2011 5:17pm
The MP indicator I have locked up last night during the GAPS in the market after the GBP news. Does anyone have a newer version that fills the gap on the MP histogram when a gap happen?
  • #1,611
  • Apr 5, 2011 5:32pm Apr 5, 2011 5:32pm
Quoting mzvega
You must be that stubborn person on the othe side of my trade
Change is the only constant
  • #1,612
  • Apr 5, 2011 5:34pm Apr 5, 2011 5:34pm
Quoting qtrader
The MP indicator I have locked up last night during the GAPS in the market after the GBP news. Does anyone have a newer version that fills the gap on the MP histogram when a gap happen?
which indicator, and what gaps? I don't see gaps on my chart for GU nor EU...maybe it's your broker?
Change is the only constant
  • #1,613
  • Apr 5, 2011 5:36pm Apr 5, 2011 5:36pm
Quoting tgwhbb
while not the smartest of entries at 4230 given the time of day etc, there are still signs of initiative buying at today's developing VAH. still in that small long position and being patient with it as EU is currently caught in between 2 POCs - Friday's and Monday's. While today has lower value and lower POC than yesterday, there has not yet been a non-trend day type t o signal a possible trend change, so my bias is still up.
We both need to consider something. We have a session change coming. Lets talk about "Overnight Inventory" Asia's going to be coming online. and when they do they are going to check "OI" overnight inventory. and they will see, US is long , london long, lets squeeze. Not that they will, but they will have an option to consider it. If you could shake those longs, or atleast the weak ones where on the chart will those longs be in pain? I think asia would do that if they intend on buying. If I were considering a long Id feel comfortable in that area. Any thoughts or opinions?
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,614
  • Apr 5, 2011 6:11pm Apr 5, 2011 6:11pm
Quoting mzvega
We both need to consider something. We have a session change coming. Lets talk about "Overnight Inventory" Asia's going to be coming online. and when they do they are going to check "OI" overnight inventory. and they will see, US is long , london long, lets squeeze. Not that they will, but they will have an option to consider it. If you could shake those longs, or atleast the weak ones where on the chart will those longs be in pain? I think asia would do that if they intend on buying....
the logic is sound, and i agree that a squeeze would be a good sign for more upside. What bothers me is that they tried that yesterday in Asia, but couldn't pull EU down that far, And today's POC is now in line with yesterday's making what looks like a pretty strong floor around 1.42. Maybe a pull down to today's VAL, but that's not much of a squeeze IMO...
Change is the only constant
  • #1,615
  • Apr 5, 2011 7:01pm Apr 5, 2011 7:01pm
Quoting tgwhbb
the logic is sound, and i agree that a squeeze would be a good sign for more upside. What bothers me is that they tried that yesterday in Asia, but couldn't pull EU down that far, And today's POC is now in line with yesterday's making what looks like a pretty strong floor around 1.42. Maybe a pull down to today's VAL, but that's not much of a squeeze IMO...

Interesting...... Im thinking strong POC area, what bothers me is for such a high volume area, what kind of Volume. I would ask, with that amount of vol, if it was buying volume, wouldnt prices be higher by now? are we going to open outside or inside value? You gave me some to think about. You have very good analysis. Just looking at current WIB. If I apply IB concept, to the wkIB Im seeing open-test-reject. Just trying to think outside the box.
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,616
  • Apr 5, 2011 7:18pm Apr 5, 2011 7:18pm
Quoting tgwhbb
which indicator, and what gaps? I don't see gaps on my chart for GU nor EU...maybe it's your broker?
I use IBFX and the indicator is MarketProfileDWM.rev1.

Thanks
  • #1,617
  • Apr 5, 2011 7:20pm Apr 5, 2011 7:20pm
Quoting mzvega
Interesting...... Im thinking strong POC area, what bothers me is for such a high volume area, what kind of Volume. I would ask, with that amount of vol, if it was buying volume, wouldnt prices be higher by now? are we going to open outside or inside value? You gave me some to think about. You have very good analysis. Just looking at current WIB. If I apply IB concept, to the wkIB Im seeing open-test-reject. Just trying to think outside the box.
thinking outside the box is always a good thing IMO.

Food for thought...Friday was a clearly bullish IMO. And many were probably jumping on board late expecting EU to fly thru the roof on Monday, but alas it did not and produced a down day with very little selling pressure after testing the waters up top...that produced the weekly IB high. Then today price drifted down to 4150 to mark the weekly IB low. Is it coincidence this week's weekly IB low is last week's weekly IB high? I think not. That produced the backtest, where buyers were found. Sellers have not been found up top IMO, so price must go looking for them...
Change is the only constant
  • #1,618
  • Apr 5, 2011 7:42pm Apr 5, 2011 7:42pm
Quoting tgwhbb
thinking outside the box is always a good thing IMO.

Food for thought...Friday was a clearly bullish IMO. And many were probably jumping on board late expecting EU to fly thru the roof on Monday, but alas it did not and produced a down day with very little selling pressure after testing the waters up top...that produced the weekly IB high. Then today price drifted down to 4150 to mark the weekly IB low. Is it coincidence this week's weekly IB low is last week's weekly IB high? I think not. That produced the backtest, where buyers were found. Sellers...
I like it when someone makes me question my position! I just dont want to admit Im wrong until 1.4250
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,619
  • Apr 5, 2011 7:43pm Apr 5, 2011 7:43pm
i posted this in the VSA thread, but from a structure perspective, tuesday looked like a b profile and monday a non-trend day...could UJ be ready to revers??

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=18174

Thoughts?
Change is the only constant
  • #1,620
  • Apr 5, 2011 8:04pm Apr 5, 2011 8:04pm
Quoting tgwhbb
i posted this in the VSA thread, but from a structure perspective, tuesday looked like a b profile and monday a non-trend day...could UJ be ready to revers??

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=18174

Thoughts?
Its one timeframing, I wouldnt call it weak, it may need to catch its "breath".
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
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