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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #1,561
  • Apr 5, 2011 8:22am Apr 5, 2011 8:22am
Quoting tgwhbb
DD days aside, today's UJ profile changed in the last few periods creating what looks like a selling tail at the top. Given the lack of buying tail, would that still makes today a non-trend day? even if not, the bottom of today's profile is incomplete making it an area that needs to be revisited i think.
man was i completely off there .... UJ back near Friday's high...
Change is the only constant
  • #1,562
  • Apr 5, 2011 8:27am Apr 5, 2011 8:27am
Quoting tgwhbb
besides the crappy weather over here, and besides no trades taken, today is an excellent day for EU IMO! A normal distribution day with buying and selling tails (circled area), signaling no major threat to the current move, so the upside targets should still remain intact.

In fact, to further support that, today's VA was above last thursday's and even the buying tail was above Friday's VAH and thursday's POC....
long at 4160. This one i think i'll be patient with and may take a bit of a draw down on it since EU appears to be in a bull flag since Friday's high...drift down on very low volume on every timeframe...with buying apparent on the lows on the 5M charts, but price could drift down to 4084, last week's POC...
Change is the only constant
  • #1,563
  • Apr 5, 2011 8:27am Apr 5, 2011 8:27am
Hey traders, I thought that once my lady left I'd have way more time to trade. MWF is all taken from work and that leaves Tues/Thurs mornings for me, but this is a really tough quarter and I've got to focus on my school work as I have 2 essays and a presentation due today, and class till 9:30 pm.

I feel pretty bad about the little contribution I've been able to make to this thread but I promise that when I have time I'll be here much more.
  • #1,564
  • Edited 8:45am Apr 5, 2011 8:40am | Edited 8:45am
I Closed my yest. 1.42339 short @ 1.4158. And took a long @1.41565, I should have been more conservitive, waited for the US session to settle first hour. Ill see how this goes this morning. I still have a short bias
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: y short.jpg Size: 285 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: newlong.jpg Size: 291 KB
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,565
  • Apr 5, 2011 8:45am Apr 5, 2011 8:45am
Quoting mzvega
I Closed my yest. 1.42339 short @ 1.4158. I should have been more conservitive, waited for the US session to settle first hour. Ill see how this goes this morning. I still have a short bias
Hi mz, short bias to where? What is your target low?
Change is the only constant
  • #1,566
  • Apr 5, 2011 8:50am Apr 5, 2011 8:50am
Quoting tgwhbb
Hi mz, short bias to where? What is your target low?
My longer Short bias is @1.3600. Not today, but I think well drift that way. Because of no more hedge, I have to close, my short, to take a quick long.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,567
  • Apr 5, 2011 9:08am Apr 5, 2011 9:08am
Quoting tgwhbb
long at 4160. This one i think i'll be patient with and may take a bit of a draw down on it since EU appears to be in a bull flag since Friday's high...drift down on very low volume on every timeframe...with buying apparent on the lows on the 5M charts, but price could drift down to 4084, last week's POC...
Good call, IMO!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,568
  • Apr 5, 2011 9:13am Apr 5, 2011 9:13am
Quoting mzvega
Good call, IMO!
thx, was starting to get hot under the collar as price kept testing lower...1st target DIBH/naked POC at 4220. if little supply there i will hold for a test of the weekly IBH set early sunday, and hope for a break out...we will see...has EU put in the weekly IBL?...let's see what the rest of the day brings...

i'm also tempted to short UJ...but haven't been watching it enough and with intervention i hesitate...anyone watching it pls share their thoughts...
Change is the only constant
  • #1,569
  • Apr 5, 2011 9:25am Apr 5, 2011 9:25am
Quoting tgwhbb
thx, was starting to get hot under the collar as price kept testing lower...1st target DIBH/naked POC at 4220. if little supply there i will hold for a test of the weekly IBH set early sunday, and hope for a break out...we will see...has EU put in the weekly IBL?...let's see what the rest of the day brings...

i'm also tempted to short UJ...but haven't been watching it enough and with intervention i hesitate...anyone watching it pls share their thoughts...
The low of today will set the weekly IBL. Being, that if this is the low of the IB (we have pretty good looking buy tail). I think its we may need to test that WIBH. Any thoughts or opinions?
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,570
  • Apr 5, 2011 9:30am Apr 5, 2011 9:30am
Quoting mzvega
The low of today will set the weekly IBL. Being, that if this is the low of the IB (we have pretty good looking buy tail). I think its we may need to test that WIBH. Any thoughts or opinions?
agreed 100%...convincing 30M close above NY IBH ~4189. strength seems to be proving itself...
Change is the only constant
  • #1,571
  • Apr 5, 2011 9:36am Apr 5, 2011 9:36am
Quoting tgwhbb
thx, was starting to get hot under the collar as price kept testing lower....
nice trade. your tgt seems very achievable today.
looks like we'll be visiting "old" vPOC's very soon
let's see

~~~~~~~~
jpy crosses are bullish.
depending on your tgt, it wont be very fruitful to short usdjpy. imho
  • #1,572
  • Apr 5, 2011 9:39am Apr 5, 2011 9:39am
Quoting supremeChaos
nice trade. your tgt seems very achievable today.
looks like we'll be visiting "old" vPOC's very soon
let's see
thx! i'd like to see a 150 pip day to push EU above 1.43 and the old highs...but i won't hold my breath...SL to BE...
Change is the only constant
  • #1,573
  • Apr 5, 2011 9:45am Apr 5, 2011 9:45am
I'm wondering how long initial balances should be considered, especially weekly. Take for example last week's weekly IBH at 4147. It took up to Thursday to break through it, and today's low was basically a back test of that same level.

So it begs the question, do previous week's IB range and extensions affect this week's ranges. It would seem so, but I haven't gone far back enough in time yet to investigate further. Anyone having more experience with weekly IB please chime in here.
Change is the only constant
  • #1,574
  • Apr 5, 2011 9:46am Apr 5, 2011 9:46am
Quoting tgwhbb
thx! i'd like to see a 150 pip day to push EU above 1.43 and the old highs...but i won't hold my breath...SL to BE...
150 pip push based on what scenario/factor?
well, who knows... it's not impossible with eur$.
if u dont get it today, maybe tomorrow/Thursday..
  • #1,575
  • Apr 5, 2011 9:59am Apr 5, 2011 9:59am
Quoting supremeChaos
150 pip push based on what scenario/factor?
well, who knows... it's not impossible with eur$.
if u dont get it today, maybe tomorrow/Thursday..
hmmm, that would be the greed factor talking

but seriously, given the large shakeout last Friday with good buying volume, if the old tops can not be taken out and EU can't break above 4280 area and hold, would that not signal possible weakness present and a possible drop...
Change is the only constant
  • #1,576
  • Apr 5, 2011 10:08am Apr 5, 2011 10:08am
A candle that opens and closes above the Asia 24h open @1.4205 is a good signal of strenghth
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,577
  • Edited 10:14am Apr 5, 2011 10:12am | Edited 10:14am
I think Im going to tp. and maybey enter on a pullback @ todays current vah ot IBH


Edit: Done, Ill enter small long on pullback
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,578
  • Apr 5, 2011 10:12am Apr 5, 2011 10:12am
Quoting tgwhbb
hmmm, that would be the greed factor talking
but seriously, .....
greed is good
what's a shakeout?
i thought this is an AMT-MP thread?
hahah, just kidding.
i dont think they'd do that kind of SO (with that degree) for nothing.

Friday was a pretty nice bell curve... price visited its POC earlier today, only to get more buyers. i think this is inline with the medium/long-term outlook posted by Sir medici & Ma'm mzvega. (if i remember correctly)

hope this makes sense..as im still learning
  • #1,579
  • Apr 5, 2011 10:13am Apr 5, 2011 10:13am
Quoting mzvega
I think Im going to tp. and maybey enter on a pullback @ todays current vah ot IBH
i closed buy already...
  • #1,580
  • Apr 5, 2011 10:20am Apr 5, 2011 10:20am
Quoting Kang_Gun
i closed buy already...
15M looks like order matching and absorption of sellers. Moved SL to just under that pin bar ~4199
Change is the only constant
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